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January 22, 2018

Comments

Wayneborean


Um, while I’d say you were right under normal circumstances, things in the USA aren’t normal. Trump is personally under investigation for financial crimes, election crimes, and collusion with a foreign power aka treason. Based on what has been made public Trump is toast. Exactly when things will break wide open I don’t know, but when they do it will be as if all Hell was let loose.

I think this will do so much damage to the Republican Party that the shutdown will fade into insignificance. And history of Trump will be a horror story told by political operatives late at night.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Wayne

I totally agree, that the investigations loom large. No. Not large. What is the word... enormous :-)
And am expecting it eventually to lead to Trump found in treasonal behavior with Putin. BUT. That I am very sure won't come before midterms 2018 (Nov 2018). I think 'small fish' are fried this year, and the move to Trump's inner circle about next year. Could well go past his 2020 election before Trump himself is even taken into the process properly (for his own role/guilt). Of course I hope it is much faster. But am thinking this is almost by definition a very slow process because of the number of people involved, and the amount of threads in the investigation that are being followed. The original Russia connection was about meddling in the election...

But very likely when the Putin money-laundering, behavior with a Russian bank that was on the embargo, not to mention personal loans to a foreign dictator, and taking his money to Trump's campaign - this side of Trump's mess will ruin him. You'll recall I was on this aspect from late 2015, so we on the blog have known about the money angle/Putin angle from since then, at least. And yet its a trivial side-story occasionally popping up by the few in the press who are working the story from an investigative journalism angle. (not unlike Watergate). And all of that is slow going, not the least because Putin is an ex KGB man who knows something about how to keep things secret...

It is possible this won't go anywhere for many reasons. But all the signs are VERY strong (latest, the Deutsche Bank investigations). And if this goes where you and I think it will, it will be flabbergaster level of incredible treason by Trump. And I agree, it will be the only thing Trump will be remembered for. Much like Nixon, remembered for Watergate. No, that isn't fair. I think Nixon is best remembered for 'I am not a crook' haha... Trump? There was no collusion with Russia, perhaps (declared from a prison cell in Guantanamo)

So we agree. My fear is that this investigation takes forever and Trump won't be in the hot seat until after 2020 (may EVEN be by design, to have him first fail his re-election and try him as a private citizen early 2021, when he has no power of the Presidency to support himself).

PS I am not a crook :-)
PS PS I did not have sexual relations with that woman :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Oh PS Wayne

Hey, meant to add. Yes, we agree on the big picture. Putin connection will ruin Trump. BUT in the interim, Trump has pulled the stunt of shutting down his own government (MAGA!) and we've witnessed 'peak Trump' for what that is worth. It was the Golden Year for Trump. All now falling to pieces. This move will be remembered (in the short term, until the personal hearings of Trump commence) as the moment when his Presidency decline really started. I think Trump will lead us into Undiscovered Country, for say the level of unpopularity, if my thesis was correct, that the deal Trump will have to make with Schumer to end the shutdown - that will fracture his base. And nobody would be that stupid, to take a rock-solid base, and cause a self-inflicted wound to fracture THAT. Or no, not stupid. That would be genius. The Stable sort of Genius...

So before we await the final scene to start in this saga (Trump hearings), lets enjoy the interim and see how much Trump can eradicate stupidity from the Republican party. He seems to be doing a pretty good job of getting famous right-wing media people out of power already haha..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayneborean


I think that we’ll see action before the midterms, but I could be wrong.

Donald Trump is so incredibly incompetent as a president that you’d not expect to see anything like him outside a wild parody. Trying to guess when the polar bear excrement will hit the rotary oscillator is impossible. But it will hit, and the Republican Party is going to get hurt bad.

The US system of government is unstable. They need a parliamentary system instead, and state control of a federal election needs to go.

Wayneborean


Forgot, I meant to post this. A super Trump fan wrote this. It is hilarious.

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/21/opinions/government-shutdown-opinion-stewart/index.html

Wayneborean


I guess Donald hasn’t grabbed her by the pussy yet.

Sorry, am kind of not awake right now...

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Wayne

LOL !!!! hey about wild parody. I think Chaplin's The Great Dictator (parody of Hitler) is one of all time greatest movies (and by far Chaplin's best). I think Sasha Cohen's The Dictator (parody of Saddam Hussein) is very funny. And I don't think Idiocracy is a good comedy movie, but it has some very smart funny parts to it. All of them back in the day when released or when I saw them first, were funny. Those parodies were the creations of EXTREMELY good comedy writers, imagining the ULTIMATE fool dictators/governments. They imagined a ridiculous extreme. Today. NONE of those Dictators/Presidents (Idiocracy) are as ludicrous as Trump. Trump has literally become more of a farce than the MOST extreme parodies ever conceived. It is as if a TV celebrity watched those movies, and said, wait, I will top those pretend Dictators and I can be even more ludicrous.

ALL (past) political comedy is less funny now because of Trump. Those (past) political comedies are mere mild shadows of the lunacy that is Trump. It is truly astonishing... (and ruining great films too!)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

And UPDATE

Wow that was fast. It seems (Monday) that there is a deal. It seems that the Dreamers issue will get a vote, and Democrats will support the GOP to open the government. We don't have all details.

I seem to read this - and this could be VERY wrong - but I seem to read this, that the protection of the Dreamers kids will be removed from the government shutdown/spending issue and treated alone, separately. As its own issue. And if this is taken to the Senate, it will get bipartisan votes easily (the only reason this has not been done, is GOP obstinance in the past, by Senate leader Mitch McConnell. Now if I read it correctly - this means the 'linkage' to any money to the Wall is removed.

I do not know this, I am sensing that was the sticking point and nobody is mentioning any money to the Wall. If this is the case, then yes, Trump just took victory in his hand, and snatched defeat from it. This will not go well with the Wall-nutters. SAME deal but without the money to the Wall?

I do not know this. But it seems, that is the deal that is on the table now. It seems the Senate will approve this end to the shutdown. Furthermore, it seems Paul Ryan will also have his side end the shutdown in the House. And it seems that Trump would rapidly sign the end of the shutdown.

PS this means - obviously - that the GOP ABSOLUTELY do not want the shutdown to continue (who started it?) and got PLENTY of intel from every sane source, that this is a ludicrously bad shutdown to do...

Lets see what is the actual deal, will the shutdown end, and what happens with the Dreamers, immigration and the Wall. I'll review the steps as we find out, here in the comments

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

@FIGJAM
"Even if I myself have already decided to, and already am in the process to, leave this sinking ship that is Western Europe and move to Belarus,"

I hope you will be happy there. I also hope you will not wake up one day in a new Russian empire. Because, all signs are pointing towards an annexation of Belarus by Russia. Then your "culturally" pure Belarus will be run over by all those non-pure people from the outskirts of the Russian Federation.

Tomi T Ahonen

Ok.. a bit more is known

So do you remember the classic Charlie Brown cartoon, where Charlie runs to kick the football, and at the last moment, Lucy pulls it away, and Charlie falls. And then Lucy says, oh, I won't do that again, go and kick again?

I am having a nasty feeling about this sudden quick end to the shutdown.

I wrote in the blog that the resolution has to be between Chuck Schumer and Trump. Now it was not. It was between Schumer & Mitch McConnell in the Senate, instead. Trump has come out in a Tweet declaring that he is not bound by their deal, that he will only sign some immigration compromise deal 'if it is good for the USA'. In other words, Trump is NOT bound by this deal.

WTF?

Schumer held all the cards, and caved. That is what it looks like. I hope there is some wicked Jedi trick here, but it doesn't look good.

Because imagine if they do the same thing again (Lucy, ball). And like last time, the Senators had a deal, they took it to Trump & he rejected it. Now we get a new deal. They take it to Trump. What if he rejects THAT deal? It is the same game with one change....

This time Trump is NOT committed to it. If Trump says no to the new deal - it is the DEMOCRATS who will be taking the country to a shutdown instead of the Repulicans !!! It is almost like 'daring' Trump to reject the new deal... This seems really smelly to me.

But we will see. Under three weeks to 8 Feb. What will the new deal be like? I expect it to be essentially the same deal as last time, with some cosmetic changes. If so, Schumer lost 'bigly'. He had all the cards, and folded for no gain, when he could have extracted significant concessions from Trump's colossal mistake.

It is possible that Schumer gets a better deal (esp one where the Wall is not funded but the Dreamers get to stay). If that happens - Jedi trick. Brilliant move. I don't see that coming.

I would think Trump is emboldened to play the Lucy trick again, and again, and again, and again, until Democrats agree for half of his Wall to be funded - always holding the Dreamer kids hostage. I am afraid, that this mistake - that Schumer didn't negotiate directly with Trump - I think it not only gave away Schumer's negotiating advantage - it taught Trump to play the same gambit in the future.

I hope I am wrong, but this sounds like a colossal mistake - by the Democrats.

We'll see how it plays. If this is 'zero/zero' gain, both sides get about what they had before - then Schumer lost and Trump and GOP won. From a weak position.

The Democrats DO have the unlimited capacity to snatch defeats from superior hands....

My thoughts a few hours after the news broke.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

PS

Note the SIGNIFICANT difference in two shutdowns. This shutdown was done by Trump. It would have been blamed on Trump until the cows came home. That means, that while yes, it would be painful - Democrats could have sat it out, and Trump would have had to cave.

If there is a new shutdown after Feb 8 - THEN they will NOT blame Trump. It will be blamed on Schumer and Democrats, because now they are on record - they will shut down the government if they can't get their deal this time. THIS reverses the position. It means the next time the DEMOCRATS cannot hold. They will HAVE to fold and Trump only needs to sit and remind every day - Schumer threatened to shut down the government, This is on them, I wasn't in the room, don't blame me.....

Really smells bad

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayneborean


Fascinating. Looks like the Democrats are setting up the Republicans for a fall.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Wayne

Did you mean that or did the parties come out in the wrong order accidentally in your comment?

I can see how the Republicans are now setting up Democrats to fail. Do you see this really as Democrats are setting Republicans to fail? If so, how do you see that? I'd really like to see that angle...

Thanks!

Tomi Ahonen :-_

Wayneborean


Tomi,

It looks like the Democrats have baited a trap. Who will look bad if something isn’t down about DACA?

The Republicans.

The Democrats have made their stance clear. If legislation fixing DACA comes up they will back it. But odds are the Republicans will blow it. The level of incompetence shown by the Republican Party is astounding.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Wayne

Ok that makes sense. I do fear that while the Democrats will hold 'the high ground' they just taught Trump he will get away with breaking his word (every time) and because we knew from past experience, this is then what Trump will also keep doing.

It means the Democrats will never get any 'honest' deals, they'll have to swallow bitter pills and 'teaching' Trump to stop this, will be FAR more difficult to 'un-learn' this, after he gets a victory out of this tactic, than if they had stopped him in the first place (when they held all the cards). I see this just like appeasing Hitler by Chamberlain before WW2, it just emboldened him... (not suggesting Trump is as evil as Hitler, just that Trump will learn the same lesson as Hitler did)

I worry. Hope my worries are unwarranted :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

"Looks like the Democrats are setting up the Republicans for a fall. "

Indeed. Note that the Democrats set up the shutdown of last weekend in Decembre by negotiating a temporary extension that ran out last weekend. Now there is a new extension into February. Tomi wrote:
"The news cycles from now on will be increasingly bad for Trump and his shutdown."

We now have the shutdown, which was reversed by the Democrats, coming back in the news in February. The Republicans have "promised" to discuss the DACA matters. Which leaves less time to pursue other GOP interests. The Democrats now have dictated the Senate agenda into February. The Democrats also have full freedom to call out the GOP on reneging on the deal, whatever the GOP does, again putting the blame on them (and Trump). Now the shutdown will come back full time in the news cycles into February. Where the Democrats will have shown all non-whites that they really care about them, and the GOP does not. Meanwhile, there will be ample opportunity to stoke divisions within the GOP on matters of immigration and fiscal responsibility.

I don't think Shumer is stupid, or else he would not have gotten this position. They have now stretched the December Shutdown into THREE shutdown moments.

Winter

@Tomi
"they'll have to swallow bitter pills and 'teaching' Trump to stop this"

Sorry, strategically, the last thing the Democrats should want is to teach Trump to be an effective president. And really, the problem is not a dysfunctional president, but a dysfunctional Republican party. The aim of the Democrats must be to teach the Republicans to behave, or to be destroyed. When that happens, they can easily reign in Trump (and Pence).

Emboldening Trump to misbehave is primarily bad for the Republicans. Note that I clearly see that this strategical bickering is bad for the US. But I do not see what other strategy could help. Obama tried to bridge the gap, but that only lead to a more dysfunctional GOP.

Winter

I have looked at the reports of the "backdown of Schumer". But none seem to remember that last weekend's shutdown was the result of last months shutdown negotiations, by the Democrats. So, next month there will again be a shutdown moment. Again, the GOP will need the Democrats to avert it. What if Schumer retreats, again, for yet another month? So, will there be a March shutdown moment? Or, maybe, even an October shutdown moment?

And during that time, will the GOP be able to achieve anything else?

Foobar

"Democrats don’t like to admit they had any part in shutting down the government. But their position was that they wouldn’t accept a government funding bill because of what wasn’t included, not what was actually in the bill, though Democrats have pointed out there are some provisions they don’t support and that funding the government through stopgap measure after stopgap measure is not a responsible way to govern.

Some of the most disappointed groups after this shutdown, understandably, are Dreamers, the undocumented immigrants who came to the United States as children. But a prolonged shutdown could have seriously damaged public opinion on the Dreamers. Currently, Dreamers enjoy massive support. A Washington Post-ABC poll in September revealed that 86 percent of the public supported Dreamers staying in the U.S. A long shutdown over immigration could have poisoned public opinion on the issue and driven people into their familiar partisan foxholes, as well as made it difficult for more moderate Republicans to actually negotiate a DACA bill.

“It [an unresolved shutdown] can only hurt the Dreamers and only piss off potential Republican allies,” a senior Democratic aide told HuffPost Monday, adding that protecting public opinion on Dreamers ― particularly when government shutdowns are so unpopular ― was a consideration for Democrats.

So Democrats staved off the worst effects of a government shutdown. They prevented a turn in public opinion against their party for this shutdown, as well as Dreamers. They got CHIP. They got a commitment from McConnell to bring up immigration legislation. And they gave up none of their leverage."

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/alaska-earthquake-tsunami-watch_us_5a6707a1e4b0e56300730ab9?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009

Foobar

"Former Trump Aide’s Fiancee Warns White House: ‘A Lot To Come’

Simona Mangiante is engaged to George Papadopoulos, and they’ve both cooperated with special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe.

The fiancee of George Papadopoulos, a former foreign policy adviser to President Donald Trump who pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI last year, said there’s a lot the public doesn’t know yet.

“There’s a lot to come,” Simona Mangiante told The Washington Post. “He was the first one to break a hole on all of this.” 
She didn’t give details, but said Papadopoulos would be remembered as the John Dean of the Russia scandal.

Dean was White House counsel for President Richard Nixon during the Watergate scandal, and ultimately cooperated with prosecutors."

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/papadopoulos-fiancee-speaks_us_5a669c71e4b0e5630072d8a5?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009

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  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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