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« Nokia HMD Comeback? First national numbers for December are out. In Taiwan Nokia HMD ranked 7th with 3.2% Market Share | Main | Prepping for Q4 and Full Year Smartphone Stats. Some things to look out for »

January 30, 2018

Comments

Wayneborean


@Abdul,

If only they would put in bigger batteries...

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Jim

I'm currently modeling 1.55B smartphones total for year 2017. Would be 5% growth rate year-on-year. Not bad but nothing like it was in the hot years..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Jim Glue

Hi Tomi,

5% sounds about right. What do you think of the prospects going forward? Is this a bad year or what we should come to expect.

MH

Remember, Moore's law is an observation that ever 3 years it is possible to move to a new process node that results in a doubling of transistor density.
Prior to approx 2008 this could be harnessed to double performance in 3 years, as the extra transistors could be used for things like speculative execution, and also made higher clock frequencies possible.
Since 2008 there has been a move to increasing the core count, but performance of conventional (non-parallel) software has not increased very much.

Sheer economies of scale are - IMO - the main driver in falling smartphone costs. Perhaps the main reason prices are unlikely to hit the $10 floor is that for most people - even in the developing world - $20 is cheap enough and gets the purchaser a better-than-iPhone4 spec phone.

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Available for Consulting and Speakerships

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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