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« Awaiting Last Quarter Data: Notes From Smartphone Wars Just Before Xmas | Main | Q4 Preliminary Estimate of Nokia HMD Quarterly Sales is 5.4M and full year 2017 ends at 9.7M »

December 21, 2017

Comments

John A

Will be interesting to see when Nokia got the full portfolio in 2018. A international version of Nokia 7, adding Nokia 9 and so on. A 4G feature phone are probably in the pipeline to.
And I think HMD Global now got carrier/retail partners so they are able to expand faster than in early 2017.

Saw some numbers that Samsungs marketshare in mobile slightly declining. They will still be no:1 of course, but I suppose wee have seen ”Peak Samsung” and they will not be as big as before.

Especially outside the US market.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi John

Yeah 2018 will be exciting times among Nokia fans.

Now about Sammy... that may be, that some silly journalist has again done some ridiculous anti-Samsung propaganda. This is the reality. Samsung is 50% bigger than Apple in smartphones (even more in all phones). Apple is chased by Huawei who will catch and pass Apple in 12 - 24 months. There IS NO race on the top, anyone wanting to rush silly headlines of 'ooh, the sky is falling for Samsung' is trolling for readers. The REAL story is that Apple will lose its second ranking and the real rival is Huawei, and Apple SHOULD start to get serious of will they want to be a Top 3 manufacturer or fall also to more Chinese brands after Huawei.

It is possible that Samsung 'loses some market share' and ends next year with 'really bad' loss at say, 18%. I totally don't see this likely, but lets say, that is a 'big drop'. They will EVEN THEN be DOMINANT over Apple near 14% or 13% and near Huawei at 13%-ish.

Now. Do you trust MY forecasts about the industry's near future or some unmentioned source you read somewhere by some 'expert' who has or maybe doesn't have a reputation? I don't see Sammy dropping below 20% next year. If then the change is within one point of market share, do we 'care' when they are 50% larger than their nearest rival? If Samsung has a trivial drop in THEIR market share, that would be factually true, but irrelevant fact. Compared to Apple who, if they lose a point of market share, will be gobbled up very soon by Huawei who are doing nothing but growing for 5 years straight...

I appreciate the discussion but John, you do see what you did with the Samsung comment. I trust you did read it and am not blaming you for telling us what you saw (I see silly writing like that almost every week) but you should know better. A small drop for Samsung is not going to matter because they have such a huge gap to their nearest rival. Lets see what it is like 3 years from now, when someone serious is chasing them (Huawei) - then if Huawei is at say 16% AND GROWING and Samsung has dropped to say 19%, THEN we can start to consider if there is any 'race' for number 1. Currently, any writer talking about any possible 'market share decline' is just trying to make a big story out of nothing.

We should be able to see through such nonsense by now, shouldn't we, John?

Tomi Ahonen :-)

John A

I agree I saw the Samsung article in Phone Arena. Even with a slight drop they still be dominant.
Maybe more interesting it are now many reports that the iPhone X demand are not so high as expected. Not same ”super cycle” in sales as when the iPhone 6 was launched.

Anyway will be interesting to follow the numbers in 2018. And especially how its going for HMD Global. (Nokia)

Wayneborean


Whether Huawei passes Apple may be dependent on new Nokia. If Nokia grows fast enough to start taking market share from the other players, it is most likely to take share from the smaller players. Huawei isn’t a smaller player anymore, but is far more likely to loose share than Samsung or Apple, both of which have solid fan bases.

Jim Glue

I think Nokia has the opportunity to be the biggest threat to Samsung. Not at the high end. Samsung has the resources like nobody else (not named Apple) to keep pouring into their high end phones. But high end phones are not where Samsung gets most of it's unit sales numbers from. In the low to mid range, I think Nokia's brand has huge opportunity for a comeback.

Nokia putting out OS updates on low and midrange phones will be their killer feature, IMHO. Time will tell if Android 8's new architecture will level the playing field and take this one thing away from Nokia as all manufacturer's should be able to easily add support going forward.

I like what I'm seeing on the uptake of Nokia's phones and think that Samsung has the most to lose from a resurgent Nokia brand.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

Nokia Poweruser has been able to get Counterpoint to release the actual numbers behind their graphic. It wasn't 3.5 million, it was 2.8 million smartphones in Q3. Still it means Nokia HMD doubled unit sales from Q2. I wrote a correction to the top of this article with the corrected numbers, please read that update (rest of blog posting not changed)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Gang

I've now updated my forecast to reflect the Counterpoint data. Posted fresh blog with the new estimate. Enjoy

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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