My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« Reasonable Estimate of Scale of Nokia HMD Smartphone Unit Sales in Q3 is between 2.8M and 5.7M (CORRECTED: WAS 2.8M) | Main

December 28, 2017

Comments

Murphy

Also.... regarding Huawei

Curious to see just how long it takes anyone to realise that those figures would mean that Huawei actually sold less phones in Q4 than last year.
Going to have to grow a bit faster than that if they intend to surpass Samsung.

Plus....
"According to Hu, by shipping 153 million units of Huawei and Honor branded phone this year, the company’s market share has surpassed 10 percent."

Also surprising... that implies less than 1520M smartphones in total for the market. Sounds a little low.

Abdul Muis

Happy New Year

John A

It have been rumours that MediaTek will abandon the high end chip and basicly only compete in the low and middle segment with Qualcomm. So for smaller phone brands it would be a problem if they want to compete in the flagship space.

But now it seems MediaTek will continue at the high end space after all with some new processors:
https://www.gizmochina.com/2017/12/31/details-of-mediateks-helio-p40-and-helio-p70-high-end-chips-leak/

So I think it will have some impact in 2018. Smaller Chinese android manufacturer will be able to compete with the bigger brands in the flagship space to. And it will avoid Qualcomm to be to dominant.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi gang

About that poll. I agree it is flawed by methodology and is not a good tool to consider global market and consumers. That said, Apple HAS currently several modest issues and trends going against it. Many consumers are currently angered by the deliberate slowing down of older iPhones. It does damage the brand, in particular at the edges where someone has a hand-me-down or second-hand iPhone - and may feel betrayed or find a sudden reason to dislike the brand. It damages the loyalty at the edge (late to convert to iReligion). It further anchors Apple to 'only its core' because new and less affluent owners are the ones to feel this heat.

Separately, there are growing numbers of press that have come off the iLove. A great example is Consumer Reports, the most reliable reviewer of gadgets and technology in the USA, with considerable influence - particularly for older buyers. They don't find iPhones worthy of being the ones they'd most recommend. It used to be at one point in time where most tech sources (especially in the USA) pushed iToys. Now the reporting is at least starting to be more 'balanced' into some fanboys and others who are more skeptical.

Then we have the ever-stronger competitive field. If you have never used a smartphone before, and are given a late edition smartphone of same price level from a couple of brands, one is an iPhone, one is a Samsung, and throw in 2 other brands whatever are popular in your neck of the woods - those consumers will not 'KNOW' or in any way notice the difference between iOS and Android. Yes, we geeks know there are differences but for casual users, there is nothing they'd notice. So one of iPhone's early advantages is now mostly gone. There is still, technically a superiority for Apple but the practical commercial benefits ('competitive advantage') are gone. Again. No more room to grow here. But RIVALS are growing.

And we get to price wars. Apple has the best margin so they can afford price wars. And price wars tend to come when the market passes its growth rate. BUT price wars mean that EVERYBODY is hurt. THAT would be a factor utterly beyond Apple's control, which will cause pressure to 'do something' as the profits in the company would be severely damaged. I don't think next year is the time price wars start but they'll come possibly by year 2020 and THAT is yet another problem lurking in the near future. I do see alarming similarities to how 'invincible' Nokia was on top of handset and smartphone markets a decade ago. Obviously Apple won't be hiring a total moron to run the company (like Elop at Nokia) next whenever they'll change CEOs for any reason.

Brand loyalty and addiction to the Apple way is very powerful for Apple to keep its current users. Most of their users will never switch. Is that 12% of smartphone owners or 10% or 8% who knows, but there is a loyal core who will always stay with Apple. Past any antennagates or slowing batteries. BUT the more Apple is in bad news, the more they become the brand that can't get growth.

One last point - don't forget retail sales. Apple doesn't bribe its sales staff to push the iToys (at least not yet). The hungry smart handset makers give bigger sales bonuses to push their brands, and THAT can cause short-term gains for one brand vs another. Apple is vulnerable here. It won't be the difference between 15% and 10%, but it could be the difference between 13% and 11% globally. Apple has a long and tumultuous relationship with the carrier community such as its war to eliminate the SIM card - and the carriers would be delighted to see Apple stumble some (while not totally, as they also know Apple consumers are also more loyal to that carrier vs other brand phone owners).

As Apple does its iRules like abandoning the headphone jack, constantly forcing iCult followers to pay more for their iAddiction vs Android users, SOME will tire of it and will tell their friends - hey, don't by an iPhone - and SOME of THOSE currently iPhone-owning long-time users, WILL switch to a premium Android rival. Some will just say, this has gone far enough, no more. Then they'll delight in things like haha... microSD card slots to get low-cost memory expanded to infinite levels for all videos, pictures, etc..

But the core iPhone user is loyal and will remain so.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Then on HMD and Nokia

About who will be hurt the most. The early Nokia buyers will be 'Nokia brand loyalists'. Where did they go when Nokia collapsed? We KNOW where they went - to Samsung. Sammy will most definitely feel some of Nokia's drain. BUT Samsung has 22% global market share. Nokia MIGHT get to 2% at the end of the year 2018. Not ALL of the gains would come from Sammy - so if we say half, then Samsung would still be at 21% haha..

Where else? Nokia will be a premium brand. It will see low-cost brands of course as rivals, the various local brands etc. They are NOT its real competitors while some will consider them side-by-side. A consumer who is attracted to the 'lowest cost' won't find any premium phone a good bargain. Most who buy lowest-end price smartphones won't be Nokia rivals.

Where else? I think most of rest will come from the long-standing brands (Sony, LG, Motorola, etc) rather than the new brands (Vivo, Oppo, Xiaomi, etc). There even a modest effect by Nokia shift can have dramatic impact to that brand, if they are only regional by reach and rely on a few large markets (like say India or Brazil or Nigeria or Russia or Germany) for most of their volume sales. So Sony's chances to return to the Top 10 are VERY much worsened with Nokia return. LG's chances to remain inside the Top 10 become jeopardized as Nokia rises.

Finally Apple. Yes, there will be some who once used and loved Nokia (at the very premium end, going back to N-Series and Communicator flagship phones) especially in Europe - who after Nokia went Windows perhaps tried one or two Lumias, were disappointed and went to Apple. Are probably VERY happy at Apple - but loved Nokia MORE. Here we WILL see some migration back to Nokia. It will be astonishing to the local Apple sales management on 'why the heck are some of our happy customers moving to NOKIA?' but that is because of the old love and that HMD is doing a VERY good job to give those who loved old Nokia 'this is the Android Nokia you always hoped Nokia would make'.

This I think will not be a major trend outside of Europe, but in Europe I think Apple will see some erosion to Nokia brand.

Very much of that first 2% of Nokia HMD return will be 'old Nokia fans coming home'. That is not the real 'competitive power' of the 'company' that is HMD, when going for real growth and fighting for market share. They are currently riding the love of the brand, and filling in the necessary holes to catch as much of that as possible - as HMD ramp up to get serious. Towards the end of this year we should start to see HMD grow some teeth and get serious about 'fighting' to gain share, as it approaches or even re-enters the Top 10. That means the flagship to be shown in Barcelona 2019 is potentially a 'world beater' phone haha... one that HMD would have had time of over 2 years to design and target. THAT could be the phone we all want...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Jim Glue

Apple is always under pressure. Every iPhone ever sold was under pressure with terrific competition. Always. And still, people who never liked iPhones always believe that "now is the time" Apple will "really feel the pain". But the only pain that can really damage Apple is cheap competition. Which we've had for many years already. Cheap competition is why Apple doesn't already have 50% or more of the market share.

Here's the other side of the story. Those who choose iPhones could have chosen a cheaper phone. Was true ever since the first iPhone. Therefore it must be understood that there are other things besides cheapest price that appeal to Apple customers. A market that is not only existing for 10 years and running, but is larger now than ever. Even in the down year of the iPhone 6s...Apple's active install base grew. It's never stopped growing and shows no signs of ceasing to grow (though surely it must someday). Not market share, active install base.

This notion that iPhone users can easily switch to Android - is a fantasy by folks who've never had an iPhone, nor enjoyed the iPhone and it's ECOSYSTEM. Even when you have the same apps on Android and iPhone...you have to buy them all again...or deal with ads. There is no iMessage, Facetime or iCloud for Android (but there is Apple Music). No easy way to consume your iTunes content.

If you have an iPad, a Mac, Airpods or an Apple Watch - you lose functionality when you move your phone to Android.

There are Apple stores around the world...but no Android stores as places to get support. Or the excellent phone or chat support from Apple.

When you have an iPhone there are accessories galore. Better hope you don't mistakenly buy an unpopular Android handset that isn't well supported.

Of course, unless you buy a Nexus or Pixel...good luck in getting future OS support at all.

All of these and probably more, are why Apple has the highest retention rate by far. And why Apple phones have a second and third life after the first owner. And why Apple phones last long enough to outlive their batteries. A topic for another post.

Jim Glue

The Apple battery slow down is a PR issue, not a true problem. And Apple has the best PR in the business.

All smartphones use the same Lithium battery tech as iPhones. If your smartphone battery is sealed (as almost all are these days), you have the SAME issue that iPhones have. That is, if your handset lasts long enough to run into this problem.

The issues isn't just capacity, like a gas tank. The issue is impedance, the ability to deliver enough juice at the needed rate. Older batteries in the iPhone 6 class started to shut down while still having 30% or more reading on the battery indicator.

In order to solve the shutting down problem, Apple extended the useful life of the phone by slowing down the CPU in those scenarios where it was likely to have an impedance fault. Now, Apple not telling anybody is the actual mistake...not the fixing the problem fault.

Well, Apple was rightly (and wrongly) castigated and they have responded swiftly. They lowered the price of battery replacement to $29 and will put out an OS patch to give clear indications of the state of one's battery.

I already had 2 iPhone 6s's with free battery replacements due to this issue. I'll happily pay the $29 price for a new battery on my remaining 6s+ and 7+.
I can pop over to the Apple store to get it done.

Where do you Android owners go when your battery ages?

James

@Jim

> I already had 2 iPhone 6s's with free battery replacements due to this issue. I'll happily pay the $29 price for a new battery on my remaining 6s+ and 7+.

The iPhone 5s and earlier iPhone models are being throttled by Apple BUT are not covered by Apple's 29$ battery replacement program!

So buying Apple's phone sucks even when is Apple's fault!

Huber

@Jim Glue: "The Apple battery slow down is a PR issue, not a true problem. And Apple has the best PR in the business."

LOL! I have seen the iPhone 6S of a friend who was quite infuriated that he last update slowed down his phone. Simple apps now take literally seconds to start.

See, if Apple had displayed a notification stating something like "your phone is throttled down because of a worn-out battery. Apple recommends to replace it", then it would be OK.

But the way Apple has handled this, it leaves a bad taste.

Technically, the problem is compounded by the miniscule batteries Apple put into it's phones:

IPhone 8/8+:1,821mAh/2691mAh

IPhone X: 2716mAh

Pixel 2/2 XL: 2700/3250mAh

SGS 8/8+: 3000/3500mAh

Note 8: 3300mAh

Some cheap Android phones have into 4000mAh.

Especially for the iPhone 8, this means that the phone is charged more often. But at the same time, a smaller battery means a lower number of charging cycles before voltage/current output becomes a problem.

IPhone 8 Plus and iPhone X obviously do better here, but still the competition has ~20% bigger attery capacity. But the small iPhone 8 just is a joke.

Jim Glue

Hi James...how old is your iPhone5? Did you expect the battery would last forever?

Hi Huber - it does no good to compare battery specs across Android and iOS. iOS is much more efficient.

I totally concede that Apple botched things by putting in the "keep the phone running rather than shutting down" optimization with no notice or indication.

I think Apple's apology and knocking down the price of a battery replacement from $79 to $29 is a generous response.

I've always known that battery replacement cost $79 and if I kept my iphones long enough, I'd have to change the battery. Every sealed battery smartphone has THE SAME issue.

chithanh

I agree with Tomi that Samsung has most to lose from customers returning to Nokia, but that it will still be a small percentage of their sales.

There is news regarding Tomi's "10 Dollar iPhone 4 in 2020" forecast from 2010: Google and a group of Indian domestic smartphone manufacturers have launched the Android Oreo Go campaign to bring $30 smartphones to market in early 2018. Yes, you read that right, a brand new smartphone which costs as much as an Apple battery replacement (after discount).

The drop from 2016's Microkey E9 release price is a bit small, but then I guess that is due to RAM prices not dropping in line with other semiconductors.

brushnell

@Jim

>how old is your iPhone5? Did you expect the battery would last forever?

What is the connection between the age of iPhone 5 and Apple slowing down illegally the iPhone5? None.

> I think Apple's apology and knocking down the price of a battery replacement from $79 to $29 is a generous response.

It is not generous at all. The offer does not apply to iPhone 5s or earlier iPhones which Apple slows down illegally!


> I've always known that battery replacement cost $79 and if I kept my iphones long enough, I'd have to change the battery.

This is not about your iPhone. This is about Apple illegally slowing down iPhones without informing users.

> Every sealed battery smartphone has THE SAME issue.

That is not true. Could you name another phone manufacturer which slows down illegally its phones (and not informing the user)?

Poit Piot

@brushnell

Jim is a isheep. He always cheers apple. He fool. He iDiot.

Huber

@Jim Glue: "it does no good to compare battery specs across Android and iOS. iOS is much more efficient"

If you really believe that an iPhone 8 with its tiny battery can compete with an SGS8 or a Pixel 2 regarding battery runtime, you need to go see a doctor.

As I said, for an iPhone 8+ or iPhone X, it is not as severe.

Also you need to take into account that Android had "lower efficiency" due to the full multitasking support: Apps which consumed battery in the background could be a problem when being coded badly.

Since Oreo, background processes are killed by Android - unless they display a notification which informs the user that something is running in the background.

So as we move forwards, this issue becomes less of an issue.

It's not 2012 anymore ;-)

Random

How come people here think HMD is making some kind of success story? This "return of the jedi" is a flop. Sure, there is SOME sales. The sales numbers are so bad - that HMD refuses to give us the numbers and hides behind guesses made by analysts. We know from that, that the true new Nokia numbers are EMBARRASSINGLY bad. If HMD honestly felt the new Nokia phones were a success, they'd be yelling about those sales numbers and publishing them at every Quarter. HMD know the new Nokia phones are a total flop.

Huber

To make things clear: Biggger batteries last longer due to their sheer size:

I have an ancient tablet, a Sony Xperia Z2 tablet I bought in April 2014. The battery still works like on the first day!

But it has a 6000mAh battery which is good for ~10 hours of screen-on-time. Since I am not a heavy user, I probably charge it every 5 days on average.

So after 4 years, I have gone through ca. 292 charging cycles. If it would last only 2 days on average, I would have 730 charging cycles!

iPhone 6S owners usually charge at least once per day, heavy users even more often. See where this goes?

Jim Glue

The age of the iPhone5 in question is the very point of the discussions. Every battery will age. EVERY battery will age. So, do you want your phone to just suddenly stop....due to an aged battery...or would you like your phone to run slower but last longer?

You have always been able to have the battery upgraded. Apple's charge for this has always been $79. It was when the iPhone 5 was brand new and it still is.

When the iPhone 5 was new, iOS 6 was the OS it shipped with. We are at iOS 11 and the iPhone 5 can run it. How many people are running 6 year old Android phones at all? And ZERO of them can run Android Oreo. But they'd all have the same "batteries don't last forever" issue.

Apple has apologized for not being clear and up front about how they are handling the aging battery issue. They responded swiftly, and are going to update iOS to make things more clear. And they've dropped the price of the battery replacement from $79 to $29 (for the rest of this year)...for the iPhone 6 forward.

As an iPhone 5 owner, you still can upgrade your battery for the original price of $79. That's more than fair for a 6 year phone and WAY ahead of any kind of support you can get from Android. Even Google Pixels and Nexus only promised 2 years of OS updates.

Bob

About Apple ecosystem and services. I just came back from the shipping center where I was with my wife. I have paid more stuff with my credit card today than I did during all of last year. The reason for that is definitely Apple Pay. Some 10 plus stores - clothes, sportswear, etc. And one restaurant as this all took several hours. Not once did I take my wallet out of my pocket.
(Just to make it clear: I would have spent equal amount using my debit card had there not been Apple Pay, don't get once again into the "overspending debt-burdened stupid American restaurant worker"-theme.)

Jim Glue

In the US, Apple pay is expanding nicely. I paid my McDonald's order with my Apple Watch. It's nice.

Agusta Joe

BAttery problem, fix battery, not cpu

no slowing cpu, should just shut down at 20% battery or 30% or 40%. so user will know battery no good.

in android, you can slow cpu to have long electric, but user choose. not apple - android company / samsung.

apple over use cpu power, battery bad fast

$79 for small iphone battery is expensive.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati