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« Reasonable Estimate of Scale of Nokia HMD Smartphone Unit Sales in Q3 is between 2.8M and 5.7M (CORRECTED: WAS 2.8M) | Main

December 28, 2017


Jim Glue

You are right, Winter. My mistake about Qualcomm and the needing to build fabs. Is it any better that the falloff in volume at the premium end has to take away priority and pricing advantages when compared to Apple?

And yes...copying western IP and manufacturing it ultra cheaply has indeed been the hallmark of Asian manufacturing. I think the Chinese are wanting to go up the food chain, as the Japanese did and the Koreans.

And they have been selling below cost to buy market share. It's going to be very hard for Chinese to go up market with innovation driven by profits when there are no profits to begin with...or JUST ENOUGH to stay alive as a commodity assembler.

All of these factors are just as real as the benefits that come from selling the most specs for the cheapest prices brings unit market share.

Yes, the day is coming when phones are "more than good enough" at very low prices. The PC world reached that long ago. But with that came a huge drop in the amount on innovation and improvement in PC's.

I, for one, would love to see a nice long run of profit fueled innovation in smartphones.

Abdul Muis

A good profit makes innovation
Too much profit just make the CEO of the company become fat/rich.

Abdul Muis

The iPhone battery exploded in Apple Store

An Apple Store in Zurich, Switzerland, was evacuated Tuesday after an iPhone battery reportedly overheated and exploded, burning one staff member.

Police said 50 workers and customers were forced to leave the store on Zurich’s Bahnhofstrasse shopping avenue after a repair worker burned his hand while removing the battery from the device.

Abdul Muis

Apple store in Spain evacuated after iPhone battery fire

Abdul Muis

2 Apple store, one in spain and one in zurich have a minor fire incident after iPhone battery on fire...

2 apple store.... in 2 days...

Jim Glue

Bad news for Hauwei, their deal with AT&T was pulled hours before the big reveal at CES. Now they will have to sell via Amazon and other online stores. Tough break as 90% of USA phones are sold through carrier channels.

What I liked about the Mate 10 is the $799 price. I want to see more competition for Samsung and Apple in the premium space. But I think premium phones are an even tougher sell via online.

Not many Americans pay $799 upfront. The subsidy model is gone in the US but it was replaced by leasing plans. If Hauwei were to come out with a payment plan option for buying their phone, that would help quite a bit. It's practically necessary if they want to move any volume at all.

Good news for Samsung.


"And yes...copying western IP and manufacturing it ultra cheaply has indeed been the hallmark of Asian manufacturing."

They learned from the masters, the USA. The whole of the US technology (and other) industry was build on breaking European IP. (learn your history)

"I think the Chinese are wanting to go up the food chain, as the Japanese did and the Koreans."

You do not have to "think" that. That is a stated policy goal of the Chinese government.

"And they have been selling below cost to buy market share."

Government subsidies are a staple in all industries. They, again, learned from the masters, the USA being a prime one.

"It's going to be very hard for Chinese to go up market with innovation driven by profits when there are no profits to begin with...or JUST ENOUGH to stay alive as a commodity assembler."

Innovation in China will be paid for by government R&D grants, like everywhere else.

Abdul Muis


"Innovation in China will be paid for by government R&D grants, like everywhere else"

Actually, American and others should be happy if china company 'subsidize' non-china-citizen.

The thing is, no one want to make a money losing business. But everyone will try to join a money making business. Some, even willing to risk their life as long as they can make money.

Abdul Muis

" I think the Chinese are wanting to go up the food chain, as the Japanese did and the Koreans."

Is there something wrong??
Are you saying the Chinese doesn't have the right to go up in the food chain??

Jim Glue

Abdul, Winter: of course countries want to go up the food chain and more power too them. I'm speaking of the need for profits to drive the innovation, service, support and brand building to succeed at the upper end (Samsung and Apple now...but Sony, Motorola, Nokia, Blackberry before).

The Hauwei's and Xiaomi's of the world are going to find out that there is no "there, there" because they've driven the profits out of the manufacturing of smartphones. And there is a long line behind them that will CONTINUE to drive all those profits out.

There is too far a gap to become Apple and control your destiny by controlling almost everything about their device. Even as Hauwei builds their own chips...they don't own or control the OS that runs on their chips. They don't control the API's that software developers will use to bring out the most in the apps that run on those chips.

Look at Samsung and their wonderful Pen enabled Galaxy Note. Only Samsung makes software that uses that pen.

Look at how many years it's taken for the Chinese to even hope to start making a big brand play in the West. And they have "Apple profits" in their fevered dreams. Truth is, they won't even have "Samsung profits" available to them. Samsung doesn't have "Samsung profits" of 4 years ago any more.

I do find it tragic that the AT&T deal fell through. I really wanted to see if Americans would pay $799 for a Huawei phone head to head against Samsung.

Jim Glue

This. This story is the "how mobile is going to transform the world" and lift up the third world. This is everything you folks have ever been writing about the value of cheap Android phones...even though it's a story about a Nokia feature phone.

Nokia fans can read it and their hearts will swell 3 times larger with pride.



I know batteries. You should see the sizes of some I’ve sold (over 3000 kilograms).

As to performance numbers, you didn’t provide anything that looked reliable. Try again.

Abdul Muis


I'm really sorry for you if you can accept that as a fact at what @Huber were saying.

I also happened to know battery. Sold many of big 2A battery for backup system.

Abdul Muis


Per "wertigon" Ekström


2V batteries are very small, are you sure you don't mean 2A?

Abdul Muis


Nope. 2V, not 2A.
BTS system mostly use 24V or 48V DC power.
So, if the system 24V, they use 12 x 2V = 24V.

The battery is big.
About 50cm-80cm long x 20cm-30cm x 20cm-30cm
and 40kg - 80kg.

one system (battery + rack) with 48V (24 x 2V) could be as heavy as a car.


Heh. The batteries I sold ranged from 12 to 96 volts, and were for forklifts and tow tractors. I do know a bit about power systems, I used to design and sell catalytic converters and particulate filters for gensets.

Jim Glue

Apple will announce Q4 17 (Q1 18 Apple Fiscal) results Feb 1. I'm going in with 83 million iPhones...which would be a 6% bump from the year ago quarter. I think Apple will do better than 6% growth full year, but the iPhone X released in Nov...which gave it less time to sell and could have acted as a depressor to iPhone 8/8+ sales.

Apple doesn't break out sales by models, but I hope some light is shined on Apple's strategy of more and cheaper models on unit sales during the year by the analyst houses.

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