Q4 Preliminary Estimate of Nokia HMD Quarterly Sales is 5.4M and full year 2017 ends at 9.7M

Now that we have the first solid number for Nokia HMD Q3 sales level, at 2.8 million, via Counterpoint that I mentioned on the blog already, we can start to make some preliminary estimates of Nokia's Christmas quarter 2017 sales performance based on some numbers not just my wild guesses....

We have so far only had 1 source (not confirmed by HMD or Nokia) for data on Q1 and H1 (thus also Q2) sales (IDC) and now Counterpoint is the only source for Q3 data. This is still very rough. But they suggest Nokia sold this level of smartphones in the first three quarters:

Nokia HMD Actual Sales First 9 Months 2017
Q1 . . . 0.1 million smartphones
Q2 . . . 1.4 million smartphones
Q3 . . . 2.8 million smartphones
Sources: IDC and Counterpoint, analysis by TomiAhonen Consulting 28 Dec 2017
This data may be freely shared

That gives us the makings of a rough trend line. Then you have to assume what you think is the logic on those first three data points. If we say there is linear growth, that the next period grows at the same linear rate as previous, we get to 4.2 million sales level for Q4. If you rather use a growth rate (and they doubled sales from Q2 to Q3) then you'd double it again to 5.6 million (or take any accelerating or decelerating factor into that assumption to change that number further). And a third method would be to use our rough analysis on this blog, the number of carriers reported by our crowd-sourced search of carriers supporting Nokia smartphone brand. By that way, there should be a 50% increase above the sales levels of Q3, which is 4.2 million. Any of these is reasonable and you can have other ways to analyze that data as well. But as any of these is a plausible method, lets just take their mathematical average, and to derive at 4.7 million as our rough number. 

That ignores the fact that the MARKET also grows for the Christmas period and that Nokia/HMD did not have significant advertising in the previous periods but did have ads in many of its markets and even expensive TV ads in some markets. The recent history has had roughly 15% growth from Q3 to Q4, in the overall market. This is the annual Christmas season bump, which is not visible on the first 3 data points we had for Nokia HMD numbers when the natural growth is only a few percentage points vs the previous quarter. So we could/should add a factor to the 4.7 million to reflect the Christmas season. Lets take that 15% and add that in, and we get 5.4 million. This is a number I am willing to say as my official preliminary estimate of Nokia HMD smartphone Q4 sales. So we get this as my estimate for the first year of Nokia HMD sales:

NOKIA HMD SMARTPHONE SALES FULL YEAR 2017 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
Q1 . . . 0.1 million smartphones*
Q2 . . . 1.4 million smartphones*
Q3 . . . 2.8 million smartphones**
Q4 . . . 5.4 million smartphones***
2017 . 9.7 million smartphones***
Sources: * IDC and ** Counterpoint, *** is estimate by TomiAhonen Consulting 28 Dec 2017
This data may be freely shared

So that is my best guess on the early data we had. at 5.4 million units this ongoing October-December Quarter ie Q4, Nokia brand smartphones via HMD have about a 1.2% market share of all smartphones worldwide. Their global footprint among carriers is still growing, so this number should keep growing at least through Q1 and possibly into Q2 out of simply adding retail reach to their brand. In total sales, they are tantalizingly close to 10 million. If they do 5.4 million smartphones per quarter currently (1.8 million per month) they are doing 60,000 phones sold per day and would hit 420,000 phones sold in a week. They would be breaching the 10 million unit sales level within the first week of the new year and would pass 10 million cumulative sales inside of 12 months from launch but it would be very close.

As I've said several times before, that moment of when Nokia HMD sell their 10 millionth smartphone is going to happen near the turn of the year, and looks like first week of 2018. I hope they do mark the occasion whenever it is and celebrate their milestone (and that would give us also a direct verification of the math that we've been using now for several quarters from very limited sources).

With that, have a great new year to all our readers and all over at Nokia and HMD

Comments

[Μέγας Ἀλέξανδρος]

@Jim

"The age of the iPhone5 in question is the very point of the discussions. Every battery will age. EVERY battery will age. So, do you want your phone to just suddenly stop....due to an aged battery...or would you like your phone to run slower but last longer?"

I would like to keep using my iPhone5, with power cable plug to my power bank. So that I wouldn't have to pay Apple US$79.

No phone will suddenly stop, you just use threatening strategy to make me think apple is right. You were a bully like Donald Trump. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybitHLhb0yw

[Jim Glue]

Threatening? How is it threatening to be able to run the latest iOS, 6 years after the debut of your phone? And you don't have to put in a new battery, just like you didn't have to upgrade to the new iOS.

But frankly, I have no problem with the notion that a 6 year old iPhone NEEDS a new battery. Frankly, I have no problem with that being something to happen every 2 to 3 years.

And now that I am among those keeping my iPhones longer, I will pay the $79 price every 2 to 3 years. This year, we get a nice bonus of a $29 price.

And if you want, you can order the iFixit.com battery replacement for $29. It's a kit with instructions and you can do it yourself. Or...like anywhere else in the world, you probably have every store that services phones at all, will service your iPhone.

The iPhone 5 is a wonderful phone...still.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi gang

Hey, we have rare Samsung comment on their numbers. It is not open official comment but rather their guidance to their suppliers and reported third hand, but by major Korean newspaper. And it is rough not precise. But Sammy is telling its suppliers that sales this year 2018 will be about same as last year 2017 and they give the numerical breakdown:

320 M smartphones
40 M dumbphones
(ie 360 M total handsets)
20 M tablets

News via Korea Today / The Investor

http://www.theinvestor.co.kr/view.php?ud=20180102000323

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

PS on the iPhone battery stuff

Gosh why didn't I think of this haha... Barclays analysts are saying the battery sale will reduce new iPhone sales as some who had an old iPhone and would have bought new when noticing old is getting unbearable both with battery life and slow processor, will end up taking the cheap new battery option instead and delay their next iPhone purchase.

To me this makes perfect sense. There will be some of the most loyal iPhone crowd who will go this route this year. There will be (further) damage to iPhone sales levels and it hits esp the early part of 2018 suppressing the start of this year. It won't be a big number but may be a few points of share in the early months and on the full-year 2018 level, could take half a point to one point of full year market share. This kind of bad news Apple really doesn't want as Huawei is hungrily growing. Summer quarters will be interesting in the market share race this year.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Wayneborean]

Abdul and Tomi,

I can’t wait to see the Nokia 1, the design will tell us a lot about Nokia/HMD intend.

[Huber]

@Jim Glue: "Every battery will age. EVERY battery will age. So, do you want your phone to just suddenly stop....due to an aged battery...or would you like your phone to run slower but last longer?"

You don't get through with this bullshit here: Yes, every battery will age. But a smaller battery will age faster, because it needs more charging cycles for the same period of time.

Example: iPhone 8 has a ~1800mAh battery, iPhone 8+ has a ~2700mAh battery. So for the same type of usage, the iPhone 8 can very well have 1000 charging cycles in 2 years, while the iPhone 8+ has 1000 charging cycles in 3 years.

This means the iPhone 8 battery ages 50% faster. Duh!

But _ON TOP_ a bigger battery can keep its current/voltage output for more charging cycles, which means the battery of an iPhone 8+ can be in a better state after 3 years than an iPhone 8 battery after 2 years.

On Android you don't have this problem because almost all phones are sold with batteries >= 2700mAh. There is no Android phone I am aware of which is sold with a 1800mAh battery. This is why Android phones usually don't have such severe problems after only 2 years of usage.

Of course eventually bigger batteries will fail, too. It's just that most people switch phones before this happens.

And even if people keep their phone longer and encounter random reboots with their worn-out battery, a 2 minues Google search will reveal that you simply need a battery replacement.

But of course there should be a "battery health" option in the settings to make this clear. Neither iOS nor Android currently have this, though. So Apple, Google and the Android OEMs are all to blame here, without exception.

[John A]

HMD Global have announced the Nokia 6 now (2018 model) a solid device with a upgraded processor and improved camera, and great build quality. And the price seems to be very good to. Basicly same price as the old Nokia 6 as I understand it.

I think this is a device that many mainstream or ”normal” users will be attracted to, and if HMD Global are able to get it out fast to international markets beside China it will increase the marketshare for Nokia.

[Abdul Muis]

Test

[Abdul Muis]

Error??

[Jim Glue]

All this battery hoo haa "Now Apple is going to feel the pain" is just hilarious.

I hear Apple's iPhones are being slowed down.
Yeah, 2 and 3 yr old iPhone 6/6s phones, Apple's latest iOS slows them down rather than have the phone stop unexpectedly.

Wow...2 and 3 year old iPhones get new versions of the OS? Sign me up.
Wait...iPhones don't slow down UNTIL 2 or 3 years later? Sign me up
Wait...when Apple makes a communications mistake the apologize and give you great deals? Sign me up.
Hold on...are you telling me an iPhone can last longer than 2 years? Sign me up.
$29 and my 3 year old iPhone 6 will run good as new...but with a 2 year newer OS? Sign me up.
$79 and I can revive my iPhone 5 which is STILL running 6 years later and still works with the latest OS? Sign me up.

It's almost like Apple had a planning meeting....

Ok, it's been a long time since we've made fun of how much pieces of crap the average Android phone is. How can we get the whole world to pay attention to the fact that iPhones last 6 years and more....that all you need is a new battery to perk up an old iPhone...that Apple Stores are all over the place and even where they don't yet exist we have plenty of authorized dealers. And can we do it in such a way to come off as humble and customer focused.

Oh...I know...let's put out a software fix that completely takes care of that iPhone 6/6s battery-stopping-unexpectedly problem, but we won't tell anybody at first. And then wait for the Android crowd to crow about our "problem" which is nothing but a long list of how much better iPhones are in comparison!

Brilliant

[Abdul Muis]

@Huber

"But of course there should be a "battery health" option in the settings to make this clear. Neither iOS nor Android currently have this, though. So Apple, Google and the Android OEMs are all to blame here, without exception."

If you see a big drop in android battery graph. It's the sign the battery already weak.

[Abdul Muis]

@Jim Gun

"$79 and I can revive my iPhone 5 which is STILL running 6 years later and still works with the latest OS? Sign me up."

You assuming all iphone 5 is 6 years old.

"Wow...2 and 3 year old iPhones get new versions of the OS? Sign me up."

Main reason apple still sending OS upgrade to 2-3 years old is because (1) apple still sell the phone (2) apple want to make it slow so the user will upgrade (3) after the refurbisher change the battery, they can sell it again with high price..... (*) BRILLIANT

[Jim Glue]

The reason Apple sells models of phones for many years, is because they can. They are all built to the same "best in class" standards they had when they were first released...sold cheaper over time.

And a new iPhone 6 sold this year won't have a battery issue, and won't be slowed down. And even the phones that have older batteries aren't slowed down for everything.

These are defective batteries like Samsung's exploding batteries last year and "they go dead and stay dead" batteries this year. These are good batteries that have degraded as they age -- like ALL batteries will.

And having a bigger battery doesn't mean it's better or will last longer if it's being "driven hard" as Android batteries are. They are big because they HAVE to be big because Android isn't nearly as efficient as iOS.

Of course, since the cheap crap Android phones don't last that long anyway, and slow down for other reasons besides batteries...it won't matter to Android.

[Abdul Muis]

@Jim Gun

"They are big because they HAVE to be big because Android isn't nearly as efficient as iOS."

Spoken like a true iSheep. You really need to see the review of apple SOT (screen on time) compared to android.

[Wayneborean]

Jim, Abdul,

If you are going to argue stats, post links to the document. If IOS is that much more efficient than Android, where’s the data? Real world data.

Also Screen on Time is not a valid comparison.

We need actual third party tests carried out by a respected organization. Get them for us, and we can talk battery size.

[Abdul Muis]

@Wayne

As @huber explain, that the bigger the battery, the less charging cycle/day.

So, if you use 3000mAH daily, and you use iphone 8 (1800mAh), it could be say you use 1.6x charge cycle. Whereas if apple equipped iphone with larger battery, it could use less charge cycle. So, @huber is right. And he's not comparing apple to apple, he's saying that apple should use bigger battery. @jim, trying to defend apple, saying the only reason android use bigger battery is because android not efficient and thats a lie.

About SOT. You can go search youtube on side by side comparison on SOT. There were plenty of video that show for the device doing the same things such as using google maps, or watching video in loop, or gamming. For some unknown reason, i can't post link. Yesterday i try, but my post did not go through. Yous can see I post 2 times testing.

The most efficient CPU now is snapdragon 625. But even, xiaomi mi max with less efficient cpu (not sd 625) & 5000mAH can watch movie or do maps for almost 1 full day continuously, far longer than apple device.

[Abdul Muis]

https://youtu.be/xdc8REw6kd4
Mi max vs iphone 6s
5000mah vs 2700mah

Please also notes that mi max have a 6.4" (more power hungry), and not using the most efficient cpu. The cpu mi max using is build on 28nm, not the 14nm.

[Abdul Muis]

@wayne

https://youtu.be/DMZiw16gfv4

[Abdul Muis]

I can't post link to web....

Sensor tower has a data on apps/games purchase on android vs ios

sensortower -DOT- com/ blog/ app-revenue-and-downloads-2017

[John A]

HMD Global have so far make the most campaigns in India, China and so on.
But in Western Europe they have been not so active with ads, PR campaigns and commercials.

It seems that will be changed in 2018. According to Linkedin HMD Global will hire some who will take care of that: Communications Executive, Western Europe:
https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/561467949?trk=biz-mob-pub-see-job

So we might see more PR and marketing for Nokia phones in UK, Germany, France, Scandinavia and basicly all markets in western europe going forward.