Q4 Preliminary Estimate of Nokia HMD Quarterly Sales is 5.4M and full year 2017 ends at 9.7M

Now that we have the first solid number for Nokia HMD Q3 sales level, at 2.8 million, via Counterpoint that I mentioned on the blog already, we can start to make some preliminary estimates of Nokia's Christmas quarter 2017 sales performance based on some numbers not just my wild guesses....

We have so far only had 1 source (not confirmed by HMD or Nokia) for data on Q1 and H1 (thus also Q2) sales (IDC) and now Counterpoint is the only source for Q3 data. This is still very rough. But they suggest Nokia sold this level of smartphones in the first three quarters:

Nokia HMD Actual Sales First 9 Months 2017
Q1 . . . 0.1 million smartphones
Q2 . . . 1.4 million smartphones
Q3 . . . 2.8 million smartphones
Sources: IDC and Counterpoint, analysis by TomiAhonen Consulting 28 Dec 2017
This data may be freely shared

That gives us the makings of a rough trend line. Then you have to assume what you think is the logic on those first three data points. If we say there is linear growth, that the next period grows at the same linear rate as previous, we get to 4.2 million sales level for Q4. If you rather use a growth rate (and they doubled sales from Q2 to Q3) then you'd double it again to 5.6 million (or take any accelerating or decelerating factor into that assumption to change that number further). And a third method would be to use our rough analysis on this blog, the number of carriers reported by our crowd-sourced search of carriers supporting Nokia smartphone brand. By that way, there should be a 50% increase above the sales levels of Q3, which is 4.2 million. Any of these is reasonable and you can have other ways to analyze that data as well. But as any of these is a plausible method, lets just take their mathematical average, and to derive at 4.7 million as our rough number. 

That ignores the fact that the MARKET also grows for the Christmas period and that Nokia/HMD did not have significant advertising in the previous periods but did have ads in many of its markets and even expensive TV ads in some markets. The recent history has had roughly 15% growth from Q3 to Q4, in the overall market. This is the annual Christmas season bump, which is not visible on the first 3 data points we had for Nokia HMD numbers when the natural growth is only a few percentage points vs the previous quarter. So we could/should add a factor to the 4.7 million to reflect the Christmas season. Lets take that 15% and add that in, and we get 5.4 million. This is a number I am willing to say as my official preliminary estimate of Nokia HMD smartphone Q4 sales. So we get this as my estimate for the first year of Nokia HMD sales:

NOKIA HMD SMARTPHONE SALES FULL YEAR 2017 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
Q1 . . . 0.1 million smartphones*
Q2 . . . 1.4 million smartphones*
Q3 . . . 2.8 million smartphones**
Q4 . . . 5.4 million smartphones***
2017 . 9.7 million smartphones***
Sources: * IDC and ** Counterpoint, *** is estimate by TomiAhonen Consulting 28 Dec 2017
This data may be freely shared

So that is my best guess on the early data we had. at 5.4 million units this ongoing October-December Quarter ie Q4, Nokia brand smartphones via HMD have about a 1.2% market share of all smartphones worldwide. Their global footprint among carriers is still growing, so this number should keep growing at least through Q1 and possibly into Q2 out of simply adding retail reach to their brand. In total sales, they are tantalizingly close to 10 million. If they do 5.4 million smartphones per quarter currently (1.8 million per month) they are doing 60,000 phones sold per day and would hit 420,000 phones sold in a week. They would be breaching the 10 million unit sales level within the first week of the new year and would pass 10 million cumulative sales inside of 12 months from launch but it would be very close.

As I've said several times before, that moment of when Nokia HMD sell their 10 millionth smartphone is going to happen near the turn of the year, and looks like first week of 2018. I hope they do mark the occasion whenever it is and celebrate their milestone (and that would give us also a direct verification of the math that we've been using now for several quarters from very limited sources).

With that, have a great new year to all our readers and all over at Nokia and HMD

Comments

[Jim Glue]

I wonder how his trip to the Google Pixel Store, or the Samsung store went

[ピコ太郎]

@E.Casais

If you go to the source, you know i left out the unimportant part.

[ピコ太郎]

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/interest-new-iphones-nears-historic-lows-new-cowen-survey
Interest in new iPhones nears historic lows in new Cowen survey

Touted as the “future of the smartphone,” Apple’s iPhone X doesn’t appear to be sparking the kind of interest among consumers that the company’s products once did. A new survey by Wall Street research firm Cowen found that the number of current U.S. iPhone owners planning to buy a new iPhone “was near the lowest levels since conducting our survey.”

“iPhone appeal moderating across the industry,” the firm wrote in a new report. “When asked ‘what kind of cell phone do you think you will get with your next upgrade/purchase,’ the percent of postpaid respondents at AT&T, Sprint and Verizon selecting iPhone moderated vs. last quarter while at the same time just 80.5% of postpaid respondents who already have an iPhone indicated they will get one with their next upgrade/purchase, which was near the lowest levels since conducting our survey and was down from 87.6% last quarter.”

Cowen has been conducting quarterly consumer surveys since 2013. The firm recently completed its latest quarterly survey ahead of the fourth-quarter earnings season, asking roughly 1,100 respondents about their wireless service and phone preferences. The results, according to the firm, paint a clearly concerning picture for smartphone vendor Apple.

[Jim Glue]

I'll put this right up there with "teens no longer think iPhones are cool"...that was going around....back in the iPhone 4 days.

Does it surprise anyone that the Lincoln Navigator doesn't sell as many units as a Ford Bronco? It's a lot more expensive.

The iPhone X is a new top price tier and is not designed to be Apple's unit leader. In fact, Apple made further strides in having more models, now 8, for sale.

iPhone customers that aren't upgrading to the X...aren't switching to Android. They are buying a different, cheaper iPhone model.

I expect the mix of iPhone X's to get smaller as the year goes by. Those that are most likely willing and able to pay $1000 to $1150 for an iPhone are the early adopters. Once the initial rush is over (probably through the Chinese New Year gift giving season", the mix of the iPhone X will subside.

The iPhone 6s/6s+ pair are seeing decent sales now that Apple has extended the line further down. And this is from results in the US...I imagine we will see a greater mix of the 3 bottom tiers (6s, 6s+, SE) in the rest of the world.

Should be interesting if Apple comes out with the SE 2 and if they keep the SE but at an even lower price point.

[Kauko]

“Analyst predicts Apple will retire iPhone X in summer of 2018”

https://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/iphone-x-end-of-life/amp/
Apparently the hump was not liked.

[Abdul Muis]

@Kauko

Ouch...
But I heard the hump can be switch offed by settings. And the 2018 will introduced more phone with hump.

[Jim Glue]

I believe you mean "notch" and no, it cannot be turned off with a setting. There is no screen in the notch area as that's where the front facing camera, faceId camera, speaker and flash reside.

If the iPhone X isn't kept in the lineup, it would not be the first iPhone to only have a year run.

From rumors (including Ming Kuo who's rumor we are talking about), there will be three models in 2018 as well. Maybe they are all nochless? Maybe they are all with a notch but are the iPhone 11, iPhone 11+ and iPhone 11c (the cheaper, non OLED version).

There are differing reports out of China on how well the iPhone X is selling.
I'm sure Apple will give some kind of color (but not individual model unit sales) on their call coming up.

I'm holding pat with my 83M prediction for unit sales. The interesting number will be the ASP. Which is selling more, the iPhone X, or the extended number of cheaper models (6s,6s+ and lower priced SE)

[Jim Glue]

The HomePod is upon us. I wanted it for father's day last year. Then I thought it was going to be a Christmas present. Now it will be my birthday present.

It's all about the sound. I am expecting a huge upgrade in my personal music listening quality. My best speaker at the moment is a Harmon Kardon Onyx 2, that I spent $250 for a couple years ago. I really enjoy the sound and it's also a beautiful device. If the Homepod isn't a significant upgrade in sound, I'm likely to return it.

[Jim Glue]

Hit return by accident.

The Homepod is also an "smart speaker" based on Siri instead of Alexa or Google Assistant. I'm hoping to enjoy the integration with Apple Music and Siri. I have no "smart home" lights or thermostats and have no plans to get any. Well, if the speaker is really great, maybe I'll by some smart lightbulbs for the bedroom. For me, the "smart home" aspect isn't what I'm buying this for. It's a nice extra.

The HomePod is a very Apple kind of device. Of course it plays in the market along with Amazon's and Google Home devices. Of course it's WAY more expensive and "totally unsuitable" for many of the uses those others are put too. I can see myself with a set Amazon Dots or Google Home Mini's throughout my house. I doubt I'll even buy a second HomePod due to the price.

Ergo, Apple will not sell anything like the number of units of the competitors who have options that start at $29 (on sale, $49 normally).

Apple will sell millions of HomePods...far more than Google will sell of "Google Max" and far more than Sonos will sell it's Alexa enabled speakers. And Apple will have a handsomely profitable business. End of pt 2

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

@Jim:

We have that data already: https://fortune.com/2018/01/22/apple-iphone-x-sales/

I say your numbers are plausible but at the upper end of the spectrum, I'd personally expect a slight bump from last Q4 e.g. around 78M or so. That spells a real conundrum for Apple if this is indeed the case, because the valleys are getting deeper for them percentage-wise...

Will 2018 be the year the shiny armor will finally start to crack?

[Per "wertigon" Ekström]

Sorry, I meant to say 80M, I misremembered last years numbers to 76M not 78M.

[Murphy]

To Jim Glue

"Apple shipped 29 million iPhone Xs in Q4 2017. This made it the world’s best-shipping smartphone model over the holiday season."

https://www.canalys.com/newsroom/media-alert-apple-ships-29-million-iphone-xs-q4-2017

My take: In the two months that the X was on sale it probably sold more than all Huawei phones.

PS. Your 83 million figure for Q4 iPhones would mean 221.5M for the year. Taking into account the 53 vs 52 week year, that is nearly 5% growth. There is a 'danger' that iPhone might NOT lose smartphone market share in 2017.

[Jim Glue]

Pt 3 on the Homepod.

The three contenders (sorry Cortana) for home assistant are Alexa, Google Assistant and Siri. Amazon productized Alexa with the Echo and is off to a great start. However, the whole purpose of an Echo is to drive Amazon purchases. Amazon is not a global service.

Google got serious this year with their Home, Home Mini and Home Max products...particularly the mini. I think it's only a matter of time before Google takes the market from Amazon. Globally for sure. Google's desire is to sell targeted advertising. The jury is still out on just how Google is going to make money with Google Home. Maybe they team up with Walmart. Google also has Android handsets and I believe that the device in your pocket will eventually be preferred over scattering devices around your home. Google is well suited here. I think the market is so early that I wouldn't put too much stock in Amazon's early lead and many many partners.

I don't think the Homepod by itself will make any dent in the home automation market. Apple has the security side as it's strong suit. Apple doesn't need to sell your information to advertisers nor sell you products from Amazon. For Apple, the tie in to Apple Music and the iPhone are enough. Apple put out HomeKit years ago but was hobbled in adoption by requiring an Apple designed chip. That hurdle has been removed. I think the iPhone and Apple Watch will be more than enough for Apple to compete for Home automation and will own the high end on the strength of being the most secure.

For Amazon and Google, the value in making home assistant devices is in the advertising and sales transaction volumes. They have already placed the low end so low that there's nothing to be made selling the devices themselves. Cheap prices and excellent AI - I think these two will continue to own the mass market. Don't know how much of an ongoing market it will be. Not sure this isn't mostly a fad.

Apple, as always, has approached this market with a device they can sell at a profit. They picked music as their differentiator. There is already a high end speaker industry and Apple is about to blow up the size of that market and own it. Google and Amazon have nothing to fear from the HomePod...but Bose and Sonos do.

For Apple, the Homepod is a money making device that makes it's ecosystem that much more sticky. It's an extension of their Apple Music business.

The Homepod will add to Apple's home automation offerings, but I believe the iPhone itself is the main end point for that.

There is a good chance that all three will do well (sorry Cortana) for their own business needs. The race, if any, is if Google can overtake Amazon's head start. We can already declare the HomePod the loser in the same way "we" always do. Losing all the way to the bank.

[ピコ太郎]

@Jim G

We talking phone here, why you keep talking homepod? No one here caring siri vs cortana vs alexa.


@Murphy

Huawei sells much phone. iPhone 1 type can't beat all huawei


@Kauko

Hump no problem. Problem is android too good now.

[Abdul Muis]

There has been a change in leadership in the smartphone market in India – Xiaomi is now on top with a 27% share. This means it toppled Samsung, which shipped 25% of smartphones in India during the final quarter of 2017.

In concrete numbers, Xiaomi shipped 8.2 million units while Samsung managed 7.3 million. That represents a solid 17% year on year growth for Samsung, but it wasn’t enough (the market in general grew 6%).

https://www.canalys.com/newsroom/xiaomi-beats-samsung-become-top-smartphone-vendor-india

[Tomi T Ahonen]

Hi Everybody

Taiwan stats Q4. Yes, not exactly largest Asian market (20M) people but as far as I have seen, the first market to give a market share count for Nokia HMD smartphones for Q4 domestically. Nokia HMD ranked 7th and market share 3.2%. This is a very good sign and congrats Nokia HMD. Article link:

https://focustaiwan.tw/news/ast/201801240028.aspx

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

PS

I just posted the Taiwan item onto blog as a new article entry. You guys may want to move the smartphone ongoing discussion now up to that topic... cheers :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Tomi T Ahonen]

To all in this thread

Counterpoint has given a Q4 number globally for Nokia HMD smartphones at 4.15M units and 1.0% market share globally. I have posted a new blog article about that.

Tomi Ahonen :-)