Now that we have the first solid number for Nokia HMD Q3 sales level, at 2.8 million, via Counterpoint that I mentioned on the blog already, we can start to make some preliminary estimates of Nokia's Christmas quarter 2017 sales performance based on some numbers not just my wild guesses....
We have so far only had 1 source (not confirmed by HMD or Nokia) for data on Q1 and H1 (thus also Q2) sales (IDC) and now Counterpoint is the only source for Q3 data. This is still very rough. But they suggest Nokia sold this level of smartphones in the first three quarters:
Nokia HMD Actual Sales First 9 Months 2017
Q1 . . . 0.1 million smartphones
Q2 . . . 1.4 million smartphones
Q3 . . . 2.8 million smartphones
Sources: IDC and Counterpoint, analysis by TomiAhonen Consulting 28 Dec 2017
This data may be freely shared
That gives us the makings of a rough trend line. Then you have to assume what you think is the logic on those first three data points. If we say there is linear growth, that the next period grows at the same linear rate as previous, we get to 4.2 million sales level for Q4. If you rather use a growth rate (and they doubled sales from Q2 to Q3) then you'd double it again to 5.6 million (or take any accelerating or decelerating factor into that assumption to change that number further). And a third method would be to use our rough analysis on this blog, the number of carriers reported by our crowd-sourced search of carriers supporting Nokia smartphone brand. By that way, there should be a 50% increase above the sales levels of Q3, which is 4.2 million. Any of these is reasonable and you can have other ways to analyze that data as well. But as any of these is a plausible method, lets just take their mathematical average, and to derive at 4.7 million as our rough number.
That ignores the fact that the MARKET also grows for the Christmas period and that Nokia/HMD did not have significant advertising in the previous periods but did have ads in many of its markets and even expensive TV ads in some markets. The recent history has had roughly 15% growth from Q3 to Q4, in the overall market. This is the annual Christmas season bump, which is not visible on the first 3 data points we had for Nokia HMD numbers when the natural growth is only a few percentage points vs the previous quarter. So we could/should add a factor to the 4.7 million to reflect the Christmas season. Lets take that 15% and add that in, and we get 5.4 million. This is a number I am willing to say as my official preliminary estimate of Nokia HMD smartphone Q4 sales. So we get this as my estimate for the first year of Nokia HMD sales:
NOKIA HMD SMARTPHONE SALES FULL YEAR 2017 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
Q1 . . . 0.1 million smartphones*
Q2 . . . 1.4 million smartphones*
Q3 . . . 2.8 million smartphones**
Q4 . . . 5.4 million smartphones***
2017 . 9.7 million smartphones***
Sources: * IDC and ** Counterpoint, *** is estimate by TomiAhonen Consulting 28 Dec 2017
This data may be freely shared
So that is my best guess on the early data we had. at 5.4 million units this ongoing October-December Quarter ie Q4, Nokia brand smartphones via HMD have about a 1.2% market share of all smartphones worldwide. Their global footprint among carriers is still growing, so this number should keep growing at least through Q1 and possibly into Q2 out of simply adding retail reach to their brand. In total sales, they are tantalizingly close to 10 million. If they do 5.4 million smartphones per quarter currently (1.8 million per month) they are doing 60,000 phones sold per day and would hit 420,000 phones sold in a week. They would be breaching the 10 million unit sales level within the first week of the new year and would pass 10 million cumulative sales inside of 12 months from launch but it would be very close.
As I've said several times before, that moment of when Nokia HMD sell their 10 millionth smartphone is going to happen near the turn of the year, and looks like first week of 2018. I hope they do mark the occasion whenever it is and celebrate their milestone (and that would give us also a direct verification of the math that we've been using now for several quarters from very limited sources).
With that, have a great new year to all our readers and all over at Nokia and HMD