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« Apple Quarter and Few Other Items in Smartphone Wars | Main | Advertising Global Spending: Digital Passes TV for First Time - and Mobile Alone will pass TV in just Two Years »

November 24, 2017

Comments

Jim Glue

OMG - Winter. Then entire Apple is doomed mantra is tied to iPhones being more expensive than Androids. The never ending fantasy is that one day the entire world will wake up and say "you know....why am I spending $1000 on an iPhone when you can get a $200 Android phone that does all anyone really needs"....yadda yadda.

After all....it's only FASHION that drives iPhone sales. Not well built phones, best app ecosystem, best in the industry support. No. iPhones only sell because rich folks want to show off how much money they have.

Any day now...iPhones will no longer be cool...but will still be WAY too expensive...THEN everyone will dump iPhones and make the sane, reasonable choice that Android fans are making.

Of course...we all know that for every true Android fan, there are a thousand others buying Android because it's all they can afford

Abdul Muis

I think you're a fool if you think apple is still better than Android. Apple just catching up by using AMOLED in iphone X. While samsung galaxy A series, a mid range phone already using AMOLED. I could go on and on like you... But my point is, Apple is not the best phone available.

And your sick thinking that anyone can afford iphone will buy iphone is a childish/ teenage girl thinking. I see iphone 7 (while its new) ride a bus, or drive a 10 years old car.

I seen a galaxy note user drive a mercedes benz.


Jim Glue

I have never said anyone who can buy iphones will. I have said that the reason most people buy Androids is because they are cheap. There's a difference between those two statements.

There are some very nice Android phones like the Samsung Galaxy S and Note and Google's Pixel lines. These cost around the same as iPhones. They are NOT the reason Apple's market share is small and getting smaller. The vast majority of Android sales are the low end.

Android as an OS and an ecosystem is not as good as iOS. But that's just an opinion shared by me and most people with a brain (I'm kidding). Like one better than the other. No big deal. They are not so different that one is "insanely great" and the other is "dog food".

GoodTimes

If you ask over 2000 dollars from a latest 2018 platinum coated Samsung "smartphone" you can for surely expect latest version of the OS To be in it.

GoodTimes

ve seen that citation used with all of the variations (Ferrari/Ford, TeslaS/Lada....)

Point is that all of the Tata drivers wish that they would have a Ferrari.

Phil W

"I have never said anyone who can buy iphones will. I have said that the reason most people buy Androids is because they are cheap. There's a difference between those two statements."

There you go again, you don't seem to understand that people do buy Android devices because they prefer them. The price is not the only decider.

I bought a £180 Nokia because it did all of what I need it to do. I could have afforded the top iPhone or Galaxy, I didn't buy them because they would have added nothing to my experience. Others would see things differently I know. The point is I didn't buy it because it was cheap, I bought it because to have spent more would not have added any more value for me. It's a subtle difference, but it is a difference and I would not be alone in this.

Phil W

Ferrari? I have a friend who has one. He has to keep it in a climate controlled garage and it only is taken out once a year for a drive to stop it siezing up.Why the hell would I want one of those?

Jim Glue

Phil - the vast majority of Android phones sold are cheap crap phones that no one would buy if they could afford better. Better Android phone...better iPhone. Neither you nor I are the typical smartphone buyer.

I can’t afford a Mercedes. I’m quite content with my Sonata. I just don’t pretend my Sonata is “just as good” as a Mercedes.

I bought a $100 Android phone. I’ve bought several in fact. I don’t pretend they are just as good as an $949 Galaxy Note.

Price is a huge factor in what anybody buys. It’s the only factor that Android has that led to its world wide dominance over the iPhone.

Android devices priced like the iPhone do sell. They just don’t dominate sales. Where Android dominates is SOLEY and ONLY about price.

Consider China. Samsung is no longer in the top 5 in China. Samsung used to be number 1. All of the Chinese compete against Samsung and Apple by being cheaper. Samsung has cheap phones too. Apple does not. Yet Apple is holding its own in China where Samsung has been hammered. Hammered by CHEAP Android phones.

It’s worse in India. China has a sizable middle class that is willing to pay good money for smartphones...and a billion poor who cannot. India has a tiny middle class in comparison and ONLY cheap phones sell (not “only” but might as well be).

Cheap cheap cheap. That’s the story of Android

Abdul Muis

@Good Times

"ve seen that citation used with all of the variations (Ferrari/Ford, TeslaS/Lada....)

Point is that all of the Tata drivers wish that they would have a Ferrari."

***ALL*** ???
You sure you can back up your claim that ***ALL*** tata driver wish that???

Not all tata driver have low self esteem. Some of them might be very satisfied with their tata, SOME of them might think to have better car such as suzuki maruti or perhaps a honda or toyota, but not ***ALL*** wish a Ferrari.

Abdul Muis

@Jim Glue

Samsung problem in China is political issue. Chinese have been boycotting samsung product for the missile that South Korea put to fight North Korea.

Samsung is not the only korean product hit by the boycott. Lotte shop in China is closing too.

Phil W

I still think you're reading it wrong,Jim. There are people who like IOS and people who like Android. There will, of course, be some who buy cheap Android because they can't afford IOS, I'm not saying that there aren't. What I am saying is that the main reason high end Android phones struggle to sell is because cheaper Android alternatives exist that are, as you say, good enough. These options don't exist for IOS. I believe that if Apple offered reduced performance devices at £200 they would also suffer bleed from their high end devices. Much would depend on how capable they are, of course. You can already see that to an extent with the lower priced previous years' models. IOS can afford not to offer £200 models because it Apple is the sole supplier with that operating system, so if you like IOS you have to buy a more expensive phone than is available for Android.

John A

It seems all reports about iPhone X are not correct. That it will be hard to get them even a long time in spring 2018:

"Report says iPhone X component demand is already weakening"
http://bgr.com/2017/12/08/iphone-x-sales-2018-may-be-slowing/

So maybe the high demand was only at the beginning when people was afraid to not recive the units in time.
I guess the "hype" is already over and customers start to reflect about the $1000 dollars price tag.

Of course it still will sell fine, but maybe not as good as many analytics predicted.

Jim Glue

Hi Phil - I don’t disagree with anything you wrote. Apple could easily sell more phones and extend its platform by putting out cheaper models and by letting other companies create iOS devices. If anybody knows this lesson, it’s Apple. And not just from the Mac, but all the way back to the Apple II vs. the IBM and IBM compatibles.

People here are forever misreading Apple. It is Apple that is in the strongest position by far. From your own words...the cheaper Android phones are why fewer people are buying the high end Android phones. Apple is affected as well...but Apple is been in a far stronger position because they keep working on ways to entice their customers to pay more. Apple has been reaching down market too...but nothing like the race to the bottom that Android manufacturers run.

If Android were anything close to really being so much better than iOS, then iPhone sales would have collapsed worse than premium Android sales.

feelsgood

SORRY FANBOYS - Phones are becoming non-descript. What is the next step up in Tech, features, UI experience that will differentiate phones in the future. Everyone is heading into 18:9 full screen displays, soon with under-screen finger print scanners, more ram than is necessary, 5x optical zoom coming soon, OLED screens, VR, AI, how fast can processors get (diminishing returns for money invested) and nearly every App is available on either major platform.
Soon you can line up every mid to high end phone on a table, turn them on and not tell the difference. iPhones and Samsung are slowly getting squeezed out of the high end by Huawei, LG, Oneplus and others, so where is the differentiation - what will make a phone special or unique - or are future sales governed more by advertising / marketing budgets, Lease / buyback schemes or just simple price point placement.

Abdul Muis

@feelsgood

You sound like HTC CEO or Sony CEO that having a meltdown.

Tester

@Jim Glue:

"If Android were anything close to really being so much better than iOS, then iPhone sales would have collapsed worse than premium Android sales."

I think we all know that Apple sales are not driven by product quality but mainly by quasi-religious make-belief and a baffling lack of informedness by Apple customers which seem to be incapable of checking out other manufacturers' products.

So Tim Cook may have time left to skip on costly innovation and peddle inconsequential stuff as the hottest item.

In any case, I see the future of mobile more as what some people (not me, though) see as the future of PCs: Dumb terminals that get used to access the internet. Mobile is mostly a data consumption device and the more powerful and flexible the internet gets, the less incentive will there be to write native software for it.
And in that world I do not see $700++ devices as a viable option. The prices will have to come down eventually because we are getting close to the point where it becomes uneconomical to cram ever more stuff into that tiny case to justify the ongoing price hikes.

GoodTimes

"Tata drivers wish that they would have a Ferrari."

***ALL*** ???
You sure you can back up your claim that ***ALL*** tata driver wish that???"

I don´t drive a Ferrari. I actually do not like the car. I like BMW´s and I am considering a Tesla Model 3 when it finally gets in to the production.

Tata drivers prefers Rolls-Royce with a driver over a Ferrari. But you give them a choice Tata or Ferrari the answer will be Ferrari. If they see a Ferrari they go to look at it and wish that it would be theirs.

Tomi T Ahonen

(Am also posting this here for you, but lets put the discussion about Nokia HMD into the thread about Nokia HMD market return, ok? I posted the same comment into that thread already)


Hi everybody

Ok first national ranking out which includes Nokia in smartphones. My Twitter follower Franklin Nwachineke aka @franklinnwa just posted a link to fresh Counterpoint national stats. The first country which shows a Nokia HMD smartphone ranking is Vietnam and the ranking by Counterpoint is 4th. Very good for HMD Nokia. (Their ranking in all phones is even higher when dumbphones are included in Vietnam)

In terms of similar markets, similar penetration levels, similar affluence, similar cultures, similar region and similar distribution, you could based on Vietnam expect that HMD and Nokia smartphones are doing well also in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Philippines and quite possibly be inside the Top 10 in most of those four countries and possibly inside the Top 5 in one of them too.

Here link to the story

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/nokia-and-itel-enters-top-five-rankings-in-vietnam-within-a-year-of-launch/

Looking like VERY good Christmas news for HMD Nokia and their fans...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Jim Glue

Hi Tester,

You posit a future where web apps rule on mobile making any distinctions between platforms null and void. Ergo, price will rule and all premium sales will dwindle to next to nothing. This hurts Apple most, allegedly, because Apple only sells premium phones. Have I stated your position correctly? For I'd hate to argue against the wrong thing.

I'm going to sound like a broken record, but we need only to look at the pc world to see the most likely path of smartphones. Commodity, indistinguishable, and very cheap computers rule the unit sales. No doubt. And while Windows has a HUGE app gap in their favor, web apps have far and away made the app gap palatable for Linux and Mac users. With genuine Msft Office on the Mac and the rise of Google docs chipping away at the need for even that...it's not all that hard to live in the PC world without Msft. Throw in virtual machines, and the fact that PC's are so much more powerful than most need...and you'd think Windows computers wouldn't sell anymore.

But they do. Even though Linux is free, even though almost every web app runs on linux (there are some IE only corporate and commercial web products still). Even so, people spend money on Windows computers.

Macs still sell. More now than ever. At premium prices. Even though the app gap is in Windows favor, BY FAR.

Smartphones will to a LARGE degree follow the PC market. But not completely. Smartphones are highly personal and are camera's as much as they are computers. The smartphone market is FAR larger. Far far larger such that Apple's "declining niche" is still a HUGE self sustaining market.

Already we see commodity prices in smartphones. Already we see "pretty darn good" Android phones for $200. Already the "app gap" isn't what it used to be. Even though developers have to make an android app and an iOS app....they do. Switching from one system to another is not anything close to switching from Windows to Mac or Linux.

And what are we seeing? Apple is able to RAISE PRICES. And while that's getting the headlines....Apple is ALSO lowering prices. A brand new iPhone starts at $349. And there are iPhones every $50 to $100 from $349 to $1150.

Apple is also maintaining it's 95% customer retention. Apple is pleasing it's customers better than any other manufacturer by far. While folks can and do switch...it is Apple that has the sticker exclusive services: factime, iMessage, etc. Apple has the stickier broader ecosystem: Apple Watch, iPad, AirPods, Macs.

Google, on the other hand, is forced to put all of it's services on iPhones and pays Apple billions of dollars just to be the default search engine on safari.

Samsung is a huge parts supplier for iPhones. Samsung can't even withhold it's OLED screens from Apple nor keep Apple from developing other suppliers of OLED's.

We SHOULD be already witnessing Apple's inability to charge higher prices than Android. We SHOULD already be witnessing developers abandoning or at least de-emphasising iPhone. Instead we have Apple leaping to the forefront of AR even though Google/Microsoft/Facebook and others hit the market far earlier.

Apple can do all of these things because there is "something to the notion" that Apple products are indeed better than the competition. At least, from one very important segment of the market.

Winter

@Jim
"Commodity, indistinguishable, and very cheap computers rule the unit sales"

Totally wrong. Mobile phones are also fashion/status items. So they are more like laptops/notebook computers.

Some people go for cheap and non-descript. Others for expensive and distinct. Some go for Windows on both desk and laptops. Others are Windows desktop users but go for a macbook as a laptop.

I expect the same in mobile. Except that the difference in OS usability between Android and iOS is of a totally different nature as that between Windows and OSX.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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