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« Apple Quarter and Few Other Items in Smartphone Wars | Main | Advertising Global Spending: Digital Passes TV for First Time - and Mobile Alone will pass TV in just Two Years »

November 24, 2017

Comments

Øyvind Mo

I read a while back that BBK Electronics Corporation owns both Oppo and Vivo (and by extension even the minor players OnePlus and imoo : https://www.phonearena.com/news/Did-you-know---smartphone-makers-OnePlus-Oppo-and-Vivo-are-all-owned-by-the-same-company_id82439

This makes BBK the second largest handset producer, right behind Samsung, or are there any particular barriers between these fully owned subsidiaries which make it more useful to consider them separate producers?

James Glu

Destined to the Mac niche? Already there. Unless you mean the Macs percentage (5% for most of the time, something like 8% now).

I do not see the iPhone ever taking anything close to 20% of the total market. More like 10-11% once the complete switch to from dumb phones is over.

Unit sales in the 300million range....Apple will be doing just fine. Install base around 750Million.

Shout out to Nokia for releasing their Oreo update for their flagship phone....and beating Samsung to the punch. This is very good news. Of course, the real “this is something new and wonderful” comes when they deliver Oreo to their budget models. Go HMD!

Phil W

Beat me to it Jim!

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Ovind

Good point and we've had some other readers make it in the past too. I think I should split the Top 10 to have one listing of 'Brands' where Vivo & Oppo (& OnePlus etc) would be counted separately like now - but also splitting out for example Motorola out from Lenovo numbers.

And then separately do a 'manufacturers' listing which is the more accurate competitive measure of the players, where BKK is listed as the entity owning Vivo, Oppo, OnePlus etc, and add their numbers together. That would be like adding all Volkswagen Group brands together for total VW corporate unit sales or in US context, adding all GM brands of cars rather than counting Cadillac separate from Chevrolet etc..

Certainly currently the methodology is not consistent. We also previously added various brands of a given manufacturer together like TCL's brands like Alcatel, Palm, Blackberry and Radio Shack.

If I feel inspired, I might do that for full year 2017 numbers haha...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Per "wertigon" Ekström

And with that my linear toy model shows I got the iPhone number wrong with 2% and the global number wrong with 0.6% (estimates were 45.75M and 385.5M respectively). Pretty nice estimates, all things considered.

Apple moving average share at 14.23%, a slight increase since last quarter, if anyone cares.

This coming quarter my model predicts 76.84M units for Apple and 453.79M units for the global number. That would bring the yearly totals to 215.33M for Apple versus 1543.39M for the global market.

However, the surge of iPhone 6 upgraders will happen this year, so I would say that boosts sales by about 10-20%. Thus I think Apple will have between 84.52M units and 92.21M units for Q4, and that would place the total at somewhere between 223.0M and 230.70M units.

Note that this will only tangent their record from 2015, it will not break it. The year after they might climb again to 235M-245M. Then it will be back to regular numbers for two years before another, smaller surge.

The motions of inevitability has started to show... :)

John A

Interesting to follow the statistic as always. I wonder when we will see Nokia in top ten or they not will make it? TCL got many brands but I think they are kind of slow with the BlackBerry brand. Very few models so it might not be a strong comeback after all.

I am also interested in the smaller Chinese "garage brands" so to speak. Elephone, VKworld, and so on. I think maybe Vernee will get a sort of break.They have released a lot of models recently. And the latest launch will be "Vernee Active" the companys phone with full global frequencies. Will work in the US market in other words.

So I think brands like HTC are in danger to vanish with all new players.

GoodTimes

"Kuo explains in the note that while some believe the iPhone X’s quickly improving supply is due to low demand, he attributes it to production improvements with demand remaining strong… The analyst says that Hon Hai’s shipments of iPhone X units have climbed to 440,000 to 550,000 units per day. That’s up dramatically from the 50,000 to 100,000 being shipped per day just 1-2 months ago."

9to5mac.com/2017/11/25/kgi-iphone-x-availability-q4/

Half a million iPhone Xs per day is quite an achievement. You still have to wait 1-2 weeks so demand is really good.

John A

I have no doubt that iPhone X selling fine. But I also read many sources about the new OnePlus 5t are the companys best selling phone ever. So It seems that the Android camp also got a hero device that going very fine.

Samsung probably will releasing the new Galaxy S9 in the CES event shortly. So it seems like always iPhones got a big peak a quarter or so, then decline when all the other new phones coming out to. So the long term trend is a shrinking marketshare.

But who know its rumour about some new iPhone SE, maybe a relativly cheap phone who might change the trend? Only time will tell.

Jim Glue

Best selling phone ever from one of the geographically constrains, also rans. Not that big of a story compared to Apple increasing the price of the iPhone another couple hundred dollars and increasing sales. iPhone used to be $650, and sold subsidized for $200. Now it's $999 and the $1150 model is outselling the $999 2 to 1 and together they are outselling any previous iPhone. THAT is unusual. That flies in the face of the "iPhone is doomed because of cheap, good enough Android".

The OnePlus 5T is just another example in the cheap, good enough race.

I doubt the new SE 2 will come in at a lower price. It will either come in higher, or the same as the SE, with the SE price dropping.

Apple doesn't give breakouts of sales by model. The 80M quarter we are about to experience is including a range from $350 to $1150 with 8 phone models....something quite new for Apple.

Yes, Apple's market share is falling (might not this quarter). It's not falling due to losing customers to the OnePlus 5T, or Samsung's Galaxy/Note, or Google's Pixels. Apple retains 95% of its customers when they buy their next phone. The market is simply growing as the dumbphone to smartphone migration continues.

GoodTimes

"Samsung probably will releasing the new Galaxy S9 in the CES event shortly. So it seems like always iPhones got a big peak a quarter or so, then decline when all the other new phones coming out to. So the long term trend is a shrinking marketshare."

They have already "shot the S9 down". It is just one of those "iPhone killers" that is going to go down in the garbage pin.

dailystar.co.uk/tech/news/661105/Samsung-Galaxy-S9-iPhone-X-release-date-specs-price-Exynos-9-Series-9810-processor

GoodTimes

" The market is simply growing as the dumbphone to smartphone migration continues."

Correct.

GoodTimes

"IDC expects its Plus and X devices to account for 41.2% of its shipment volume in 2017 and 50% or more of Apple's iPhone shipments in 2018."

Apple will increase the sales of the iPhone X not vice versa.

Jim Glue

It's going to be a good year for Apple. However, I don't think we should move on so fast from the amazing year of the iPhone 7 pair. A third year with the same form factor. Meh...me too (allegedly) features. Forever and always as too expensive. Apply had a very strong final second half of the year where they were supposed to be weakest.

Meanwhile, the Samsung folks are already saying "wait till next phone"...isn't their Note 8 supposed to be the best phone of all time? Oh right, that's what the pundits were saying about the previous year's Note 7 before they started exploding.

Who's going to take the over/under about Apple outselling Samsung for this quarter?

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Jim:

Apple isn't outselling Samsung. They may be outselling a specific model, yes, but not Samsung as a whole, that's ludicrous. :)

I still say, iPhone is a nice phone, but not so nice I'd want to pay thrice the money for it.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

A few related stats. Gartner has its Top 5. Same as us, same for their total shipment number for Q3, off by a few decimal points..

IDC has counted phablet screen size phones for 2017 which is 611M = about 40% of new smartphones sold.

Also IDC's count finds global ASP growing and is at $317 (because of the 1,000 dollar price phones at the top of the price pyramid, obviously low end is where the growth still is). IDC numbers at Datamation article:

https://www.datamation.com/mobile-wireless/phablets-becoming-the-preferred-smartphone-form-factor.html

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Jim Glue

Hi Per,

Of course Samsung sells more phones than Apple - and everybody else less. Even after consolidating 3 Chinese companies into one, and Lenovo buying Morotola...they are still selling less phones than Apple (and Samsung).

That doesn't change the story. Apple isn't competing against Samsung's cheap phones anymore than Apple is competing against any of the low end. No more than Blackberry ever competed against Nokia/Motorola's feature phones.

But Samsung has two lines of phones that are directly aimed at the same market the iPhone is. Very nice phone lines...the best in the industry not made by Apple.

But if you are buying phones 1/3rd the price of iPhones...you aren't buying Samsung's best either. Which is fine. You are describing the largest part of the market after all.

Markets are a logical grouping. It was logical to separate Blackberry phones from feature phones. They were priced much differently and sold to different audiences. All we are seeing today is that feature phone buyers are buying smartphones now that the price has dropped enough. They still are "feature phone" people, paying feature phone prices, using feature phone levels of telecommunications services...and not spending anything at all on the broader ecosystem.

Apple didn't sell feature phones and isn't selling cheap smartphones to feature phone users. This is the only area Android is dominating Apple because Apple isn't participating.

Jim Glue

Nokia 2 comes to the US - via BestBuy (already there) and Amazon (just checked, not yet).

While I love my iPhones as my daily driver, I am enthused about the low end Android phones as backups and "Android Touch" devices.

$99 unlocked, running stock Android 7.1 with promised update to Oreo. Unfortunately, it only runs on GSM (AT&T, TMobile) and not CDMA (Verizon, Sprint).

Also, no option to upgrade from the 8gig storage. I've already learned that "expansion memory" is no substitute for having your apps installed on internal memory.

I doubt the camera will be acceptable to me either. My current "second phone" is going on 2 years old. Not sure the Nokia 2 is QUITE it for me.

GoodTimes

"Also IDC's count finds global ASP growing and is at $317"

And this is all thanks for Apple. Everyone else goes down.

Samsungs ASP is $224 (last time I checked) That means that for every Note 8 (999 euros) they sell ton of 10 euro dumbphones and why?. Because their cheapest smartphone is 138,90 euros. That is not enough to take the ASP that low. They of course will not brake this down. So you can take tens of millions of phones out from Samsungs smartphone sales because they are dumbphones.

GoodTimes

"Fitness Trackers and Smart Watches: While purchase intent among consumer remains about the same as it was last year interest has shifted dramatically into Apple’s favor… In 2016 Fitbit had 20% of the market intent and Samsung had 13% and Apple Watch 22% with 31% of consumers still doing research to decide on which product is right for them. 2016… This year Apple Watch models have 44% of the intent to buy share of the wearable category. Fitbit products were up slightly YoY to 22% of the categories purchase intent and Samsung was down to below 10%. This year only 14% of consumers intending to buy a fitness tracker or smartwatch were still doing research. Suggesting consumers are more educated about the category and what they are looking for this year over last year.

My take: Looks like another Apple Christmas."

www.ped30.com/2017/11/27/apple-holiday-purchase-intent/

The problem is that Apple still does not sell the Apple Watch Wireless in the Europe. What gives. They are going to miss out the Santa.

Best Smartphones Under 5000

smartphones are getting cheaper day by day so here is the list of Smartphones Under 5000. Nice post thanks

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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