My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« Noted in Passing: Microsoft Smartphone OS Platform Passed Away | Main | Smartphone Migration Rate is now at 81.5% and Replacement Rate at 21 Months »

October 13, 2017

Comments

Abdul Muis

There's an interesting data from CounterPoint
https://www.counterpointresearch.com/almost-half-of-smartphone-users-spend-more-than-5-hours-a-day-on-their-mobile-device/

* Almost Half Of Smartphone Users Spend More Than 5 Hours A Day on Their Mobile Device
* Additionally, one in four users now spend more than 7 hours every day on their smartphone, these are true power users mostly running businesses on their phones or consuming digital content for long hours
* Malaysian consumers spend most time on their smartphones across regions. More than 55% of users reported that they spend more than five hours per day on their smartphone. This trend will be prevalent in most emerging markets
* Due to growing dependence on smartphones as well as availability of affordable smartphones, the average global smartphone replacement cycle has reduced to 21 months – Driven By Developing Markets
* Emerging market consumers have become more aggressive than consumers in developed markets. This trend is the complete opposite compared to the feature phone era
* The growth of Chinese brands offering higher specification devices at affordable price points has triggered a faster upgrade cycle. Furthermore, the rise of second life and refurbished smartphones is also catalyzing this trend
* Mexican users replace their smartphone fastest, replacing every 18 months. This behavior is likely a consequence of the high percentage of used devices in Mexico; almost one third of the base uses a used device.
* One in three users in Mexico are likely to upgrade their devices every twelve months
* Two in Three mobile users plan to upgrade to a new phone within the next twelve months in India


Jim Glue

Hi Tomi,

Are you actually pleased with these numbers from the world's most powerful phone brand teamed up with the world's most Chinese contract phone manufacturer running the world's most dominant smartphone OS (stock...which is seen as a virtue)?

How come only 1 Finland carrier is advertising for the home team?

More demand than supply is really hard to swallow given that Foxconn is a PARTNER (not just a supplier like with Apple). People consistently poo poo Apple's claims that they could sell more phones if they could make more at launch. But with Apple there are new tech, new components, new manufacturing techniques.

These phones are assembled from commodity parts by the worlds biggest manufacturer. No...if there are supply constraints it's only because the HMD/Foxconn didn't believe enough in their product.

This is on top of the fact that these phones were supposed to come out LAST year. HMD/Foxconn have been slow out of the gate and I really think they are fairly slow on the uptake.

They haven't spent much on advertising and they shouldn't HAVE too. There is supposed to be a huge pent up demand of Nokia loyalists....Nokia being far and away the most powerful brand in mobile...nay, the entire world (more than Coke, McDonalds).

Apple's phones were expensive...Apple had zero history selling phones, zero connections to telco's. The iPhone was 2G, shitty camera, no video, no expandable memory, no replaceable battery. Apple was demanding that Telco's abandon their relationship with their customers...making them direct Apple customers.

HMD/Foxconn are doing NONE of that. Who cares that the smartphone market is MUCH larger today than 10 years ago...that isn't the reason that comparing these sales numbers favorably with the 10 year old iPhone is odd.

If Apple put out a Nokia 6 priced/spec'd phone, sales would be in the 10's of millions per quarter. Let alone the Nokia 3.

HMD/Foxconn didn't ramp up production because they have no confidence that the Nokia brand has anything like it's former lofty perch.

Better days are likely ahead. Better days will come from better phone, real innovation (Bothie camera?) and more competitive pricing

Tomi T Ahonen

Yes Jim

These would be VERY good numbers if these are close to reality, in particular if the growth rate continues to something near 3.5M for Q4 of this year. That would be around 0.7% by end of this year. That would allow for something between 1% and 1.5% for the second year (end of 2018). And THAT would then be knocking on a Top 10 slot for 2019 which starts at around 2% market share.

Your comparison is utterly false, HMD is not Nokia and neither HMD nor Foxconn have ANY carrier relationships (exactly like Apple in the Spring of 2007). They would be foolish to manufacture 20 million devices if they don't have the retail channel in place to sell them. So it will HAVE to be a ramp-up of the business, and 'test the waters' to see how much of the old Nokia brand can be transferred to HMD and how much of the damaged Nokia brand can now be recovered via what is, after all, the FOURTH different smartphone OS pushed by 'the Nokia brand' in a mere six years.

As to Apple now doing better - duh, Jim. CARRIER RELATIONS. I told you so in the blog article. Nobody not Xiaomi, not HMD, not Apple can appear from nowhere to become a global player without carrier relations. That means time, building those. A VERY good company can build those relations to cover roughly the world, in about 3 years - see Apple iPhone 2007 to 2010. That was with all the money of God, and the charisma of Steve Jobs pushing the iToy. A 'total nobody' like HMD, using a 'has-been brand' like Nokia, will be hard pressed to MATCH what Apple was able to do. Yet HMD SEEMS to be, if my math is close to the truth, to be doing exactly that. Which NOBODY else has managed since 2007.

You have an unfair expectation level (I don't, I go by the numbers). This is near perfection what HMD is doing - if my numbers turn out to be close to the truth. They CANNOT do any better than this. NOBODY could do better than this. And it MAY BE, that I am too conservative, and HMD will pass 10M sales late in December - when they pass the 10 million sales level, they may well celebrate that milestone. I expect that to happen in Q1 of next year (January-March) but if my numbers are too conservative, HMD might actually achieve it in the October-December quarter. And we may well hear when it happens. Obviously its possible I am still too optimistic in my math, and they are doing less than this, in which case their 10M level might happen in Q2 (April-June) which would still be the best performance of any new brand, since the iPhone. Not bad that, either.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

John A

I recently bought a Nokia 8 and are happy with it. But I dont think so many actually know that Nokia now using android, they might read a little about the new Nokia 3310 in some random newspaper.

The so called normal consumer still buy Samsungs, iPhones, Huawei etc..But the fans know about the Nokia android handsets. I think we must wait until 2018 for the big break for HMD Global as they got more carrier partners, and you see more Nokia devices in retail stores etc..

And the portfolio will be bigger with maybe a Nokia 2, 7 and 9. Then the average mobile buyer consider Nokia again. But so far I think HMD Global have done a decent job.

Jim Glue

My expectations are elevated because this isn't just Alcatel renting the Blackberry brand. HMD isn't Nokia but it's exNokia people. They are teamed up with the biggest, baddest smartphone manufacturer in the world. Teamed up. HMD hasn't hired Foxconn.

HMD is new but it's people aren't new in the business and I'd be shocked if they don't retain Nokia employees that know who to talk to in the carriers. And these carriers are not new to the Nokia brand. And there is nothing threatening about HMD/Foxconn's business model to the carrier....unlike Apple.

How hard is it to sell decent android phones at decent prices when you can credibly slap Nokia's name on them? Why weren't all 5 of Finland's carriers beating HMD's doors down for the opportunity to carry new Nokia phones...this time with Android?

I'm not saying they should be putting up today's Apple or today's Samsung numbers right out of the gate (or ever).

I'm saying that "only meeting Apple's first year" is an incredibly low bar.

John A

Some word about production. All new Nokia devices are now made localy in India for that market. And the service stations/locations for Nokia Phones growing fast in India.

HMD Global just announced a new factory in Indonesia with a local partner. In Turkey Vodafone run commercials in TV for Nokia, you can check them in YouTube.

Here in Sweden 2 carriers of 4 now sell Nokia. Telia and Telenor. Yes it have been a slow process but HMD Global seems to be on track now. As I understand they got good support in the UK market to.

The problem might be the US and the Chinese market. So we see how they will continue there. Only selling Nokia 6 will of course not be enough.

Jim Glue

They have a pending Nokia 6 sale in the US, once they put Oreo on it :)

Well, maybe the next Nokia 6 as my current BLU phone is meeting my backup needs.

zlutor

@Tomi: are those numbers good, bad or ugly? :D

zlutor

afaik the demand is much-much bigger than their delivering capacity. it is goog from one aspect but many ght be bad from other one: motive ng ablento.deliver, consumer buy other phone frm the shelf....

zlutor

eeh, criple keyboard ...

so, not being able to deliver might backfire...

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi John and zlutor

John - Great info, thanks! Yeah that all is looking solid for more growth.

zlutor - good bad and ugly haha.. no. Seriously, good. They are on track to match iPhone first year sales level and that would be very strong. If they get to the 0.7% market share level by Q4 of this year, its on track for well above 1% end of next year and possibly breaking into Top 10 by 2019. That all would be astonishingly good. But first, my guesstimates need to turn out to be at least close to accurate (or better yet, that HMD/Nokia are doing BETTER than what I counted haha). And secondly, execution. They have to keep executing well. Just like the details we heard from John. That kind of work in country after country after country; and carrier after carrier after carrier.

PS all - on US market? There is ZERO need for HMD to succeed in the US market. ZERO. It is only for cosmetic reasons, it looks nice to also have a presence in the US market but they're so small now, they really don't matter. China is far bigger than USA, and India has grown to be bigger as a phone market (shortly also as a smartphone market) than US. But the US is a fiercely competitive, strongly distorted market that was always bad for Nokia (bad carrier relations going all the way back to the CDMA-GSM tech wars)

The dumb way to spend your marketing budget is to go fight in a market with strong domestic rivals and you have a bad reputation. A smart strategy goes to markets that are BIGGER where your brand has strong reputation and there are weak rivals (India). Or markets that are bigger where your brands is stong, even if local rivals are also strong (China). Or to markets where your brand is strong and local rivals are weak even if that market is slighly smaller than US (like Indonesia) or about half the size of US (like Brazil, Nigeria, Russia) and of course those markets where local rivals are essentially non-existent but are still in the scale of 1/3 of USA like Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Mexico, etc.

Once HMD/Nokia is a Top 3 player - THEN they may want to go more strongly for the US market as well. But before they're even inside the Top 10, no sense in any significant effort for the USA. Totally different, IF one of the local carriers like say AT&T or T-Mobile suddenly have a love for some Nokia Android phones - in that case of course, ride that train as far as it will go. But for global HMD marketing efforts, the dollars invested in India, Nigeria, Indonesia, China, Russia, Brazil will yield FAR greater returns than USA. Also obviously ALL of Europe is better for HMD than the USA, so Germany, Italy, UK etc long before bothering with securing a big deal with an American carrier partner haha..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Teemu

@Tomi
If you need review of Nokia 8, here:
http://mobiili.fi/2017/09/07/nokia-8-testi/

zlutor

@Tomi: consumers have to wait ages for e.g. Nokia 6 and it is available in black only in some areas. It seems they are constrained in delivery - either there is huge demand they face and/or they are short on producing/sourcing...

Mike

I can confirm what zlutor says, from Poland. New Nokia smartfones are offered by 3 out of 4 operators and in all 3 they are heavily advertized, in the shops and on their webpages. Pricing is very aggressive in all 3 - phones are practically for free with 2 years subscription. But they are also practically sold out. It looks like HMD is not able to produce them in needed volume on time, cause there is still demand, I have friends working there and they say people keep asking. So situation is good but could be better.

BTW: my 70+ year old mother in law just bought Nokia 3 few weeks ago. Why? Because it's Nokia and she always had Nokia. Previously (after 2 or 3 Lumias) she had Samsung and complained a lot that "this phone is so weird" - she meant that android is weird. Now she has the same kind of android and I haven't heard a single complaint - because it's Nokia and she used Nokia for almost 20 years so it must be ok. It works.

Winter

Nokia 8 are offered by Dutch networks:
https://www.droidapp.nl/smartphone/nokia-8/

LongAAPL1997

I don't keep my hopes up with HMD\Nokia thing. They will succeed if they really keep up with the updates. Android is so fragmented market that they will get some market share from some less known brand for sure. At least now they do not need to deal with the Microsoft shit only the Android crap.

Phil W

Well the updates have been fast so far and android is every bit as good as IOS these days.

Luis Calvo

Hi Tomi,

Here in Spain most carriers (Vodafone, Orange and Yoigo) have started advertising the NOKIA 3 on their roster in September.

Not a bad start for NOKIA in my home country I guess, let's hope they start selling the other handsets by the Christmas season.

Kind regards,
Luis.

Abdul Muis

@Tomi,

Your post about nokia were picked up by other
http://wccftech.com/nokia-10-5-million-units-first-year/

LongAAPL1997

"Well the updates have been fast so far and android is every bit as good as IOS these days"

Android will never be as good as iOS. Feature wise they come close, but when the android is based on forked Linux and forked JavaME... No, it will never be as good.

Samsung flagship phones are still sold with the old OS and Nokia has to prove several years that they are really doing it. You can always talk, but you need to also walk the bath. I don't trust the HMD to do any better than any other Android OEM and all of them are failing it even Google itself.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati