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October 12, 2017

Comments

Paul

Samsung just gave a positive profit warning - the calendar Q3 financial results will be a new record in their history.
And while MSFT dies away, Jolla has signed a deal in Latin America.

Tomi T Ahonen

Ok gang

The numbers are up. Enjoy the blog with the first ever published estimate by anyone of 2017 quarterly sales levels of Nokia HMD Android phones... (your wish is my blog)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Jim Glue

Msft will be far stronger in mobile since they have stopped wasting resources on their own mobile platform. They are far from dead in the mobile space. They have a compelling and competitive set of Android/iOS apps and services. They have a burgeoning set of cloud services for developers of native apps. They have AI and translation software...and they have the XBox gaming community to market to.

Anybody try their Android launcher? I always just use the native one that comes with whatever phone I buy. Apparently it's a decent one.

Markus

MS is currently lobbying the EU to investigate Google's bundling of apps with the Play Store. If they can get them to unbundle they can release an Android phone with the Play Store but no Google apps. They can install all of their own apps.

Again, the amount of astroturfing of MS apps on tech forums has increased noticeably of late. They have given up the goal of a Windows mobile future, but seem determined to achieve a Microsoft mobile future. For those of us who understand how bad MS is, this is a concern.

Jim Glue

Hi Markus,

I see a big difference between Google's bundling of apps and Window bundling IE. Microsoft sold Windows for money. Google is giving away Android "for the price of" installing Google's money making apps and services in prominent locations. To take Google's free OS and then remove Google's money making services for replacement money making services of your own...doesn't sound equitable to me.

In fact, were the EU to force Google to unbundle it's apps/services from Android...I'd expect/hope that Google would immediately end both it's AOSP efforts and it's free license of Google Android.

You can buy Google android for $50 per phone and use or not use whatever Google services you want. Then Google could offer a $50/phone advertising fee if you ship Google's apps and put them in Google's placements.

In other words...keep things like they are if you want...or start paying us a pretty penny for Android...or go develop your own mobile OS.

Markus

I see the same difference, Jim, but I don't expect MS and their proxies will stop trying to attack Google in any underhanded way they can.

MS can't afford to out of mobile, and I don't think paying OEMs to install MS apps is going to satisfy them.

I would be delighted to see MS continue to slide into obscurity, though.

Tester

Your paranoid suspicions make little sense.

Plus, Steve Ballmer, who was the master of these business tactics is no longer there.

Microsoft has zero chance to take over Android. If they manage to squeeze out Google the best they can achieve is manufacturers using a neutral Android instead - because none of the manufacturers needs Microsoft for anything.

new_guy

Happy day! Die Microsoft die!! Ha ha ha...

john F.

Where all predictions have failed and keep failing is Apple

And don't give that market share thing... irrelevant.

From Zero phones to the largest company in the world and the absolute king of phones above 600 dollars.

From zero to 10 million to 100 million to 200 million against:

Apple is not growing according to market share
Apple is loosing according to market share
Market share says Apple is failing at all levels ....

So many wrong predictions when Apple is in the mix.

Why? Apple does not belong in just market share

Jim Glue

Hi John,

This is a market share blog and all companies performance is judged by market share. Which makes Apple the second place company and iOS the second place platform.

Tomi has stated many times that Apple isn't going away, and he's right.

What importance you want to place on Apple's "niche" of the market is, of course, completely arbitrary.

Certainly it is only fair to give the anti-Apple crowd their due in Apple's falling market share? How greedy would it be to deny them that? After all, Apple completely dominates profit share...sets the competitive stage...etc.

Seriously...we have a lot of "not in the US" people here and it USED to be a fun place to bash the US and crow about how far ahead "they" are in mobile. And the iPhone put all that to an end. Yes, with Android...but BECAUSE of the iPhone.

Now the US completely dominates the mobile platform space world wide.

So why struggle with letting folks pick between the two US platforms to be happy about...and which to say "booooo" to?

john F.

@Jim

No struggle at all, just stating that predictions about apple have been wrong and continue to be wrong

Champagne vs coke? Have fun comparing market share

BMW vs Honda? have fun comparing market share

However it would be interesting to see a post by Tomi....

The high end ( above 600 US$ ) market and its leaders ... who are they and what marketshare they have by Tomi.

That would be market share and it would be fair, one of those lengthy posts talking about lost of stuff in that market segment.
But that one is not convenient to write about ....

John Fro

Network effects, network effects, network effects. Just about everyone goes with the flow. It leads to monopolies in the commercial world. It worked for MS once, but like IBM was with PC's, they didn't have any heart in the mobile game and just did it to please overly excited investors that wanted to shake up the board of directors when they saw how much money Apple was making in mobile. Meanwhile, the core management team at MS was like "We make our money selling licenses to enterprise partners. Retail and consumer products like phones are just for brand loyalty and familiarity." The new CEO has not only ceded the phone market, he's getting out of the consumer market. They might consider selling the XBox brand or spinning it off, but that might be a little too embarrassing for now. This was always about the boardroom and internal politics. MS didn't need the headaches and makes plenty of money. What's less clear is what happened at Nokia.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@John:

If the iPhone was a car, there would be two types of roads it could drive on (and it could not drive on the Android roads).

The Apple roads are small in number but are arguably the best fucking experience money can buy you.

The Android roads are great in number but most are backwater country types of roads.

Then of course, there are the web roads... The Mother-freakin' highway interstates that can get you *anywhere* with *any* vehicle. Problem is, they are much more comfortable to travel in an Android car, since iPhone cars are not designed for them and even neglect them in order to make the experience of the Apple roads great.

So, is the iPhone car a great buy? Yes. If it can get you to the places you want to go, and you *only* want to go to those places, hell yes.

But most people need to go to other places than the Apple roads take you. Even if the quality is dirt poor on those roads. And this will be abundantly clear, once again, as the dust starts to settle for real. Until then though... :)

Abdul Muis

@PWE.

Not the right analogy...

1. There were premium android that were better than iphone. For those using the premium android, experience is different from the one using cheap android.
2. Most using cheap android because *its the only thing they can afford / willing to afford*
3. If we're talking feature that apple cant support with their devixe such as using your device to check cash card balance & top up cash card. The experience is flawless (not this "But most people need to go to other places than the Apple roads take you. Even if the quality is dirt poor on those roads. And this will be abundantly clear, once again, as the dust starts to settle for real. Until then though... :)" mombo jombo

Jim Glue

Abdul and I both disagree with the car analogy. Here are my reasons:
- iPhones and Androids work on the same telco networks
+ access the same internet
+ can talk/message/skype/facebook/whatsapp/line/etc. to each other
- there are precious few Apple exclusive services (facetime, imessage)

It's luxury car vs. used old beater (kidding, not kidding). Where the luxury car paradigm matches is that people pay more for a nicer, better experience and for some, social status reasons. Like luxury cars, you pay a lot more for experience and paying double doesn't give you "double the extra experience".

Where the luxury car comparison falls down is that, in the developed world, an iPhone is attainable for a far larger part of the population than a luxury car is. People like me who can't afford luxury cars but can afford an iPhone.

Abdul is also right in that there is indeed a premium/luxury section of the Android market that delivers a better experience than cheap Android does. It would really be best to compare those two markets...just like you compare BMW to Mercedes and not to Toyota. And why Toyota came out with the Lexus brand to compete with BMW/Mercedes.

So much of the confusion about "the iPhone's falling market share" vs predictions of doom based on falling market share...and why isn't what we predict happening when it MUST...

All of that confusion would go away if we had regular, quarterly numbers that let us compare iPhones to premium Androids.

john F.

@Jim

All of that confusion would go away if we had regular, quarterly numbers that let us compare iPhones to premium Androids.


Bravo!!!! if only Tomi would do us that favor, but he won't, just 2 or 3 of us in this blog can understand that, too much work for just a few people

Jim Glue

Hi John,

How can we complain about a service Tomi is doing for us...for free? I am not sure that any of the analyst houses break out the premium, "cheap, good enough" numbers...but if they do...I'm not sure what of that information would be covered under an NDA. After all, if an analyst's customers could just buy one report and put all it's info out on the internet for free....then there would be no analyst business.

Really...would that information change any of the die hard anti-Apple folks here? I don't think so. Let them have their one metric where the world makes sense to them. Let them cheer the "impending doom" of the one American company they hate in order to cheer on the success of ANOTHER American company. That...and Scumsung. What a terrible company to have to be cheering for.

Hi Long,

Apple is doing great in the Fortune 500...the iPhone always has. It did not take long to overcome Blackberry in the enterprise. For a time, lots of companies were giving Android a hard look along with iOS. That seems to be coming to an end with iOS becoming the single corporate platform. They will still support Android where they have to (b2c) but they see the value in buying Apple hardware/software when full life cycle costs are considered. Security and fragmentation have overcome "cheaper cost of the devices" as a prime motivator for large companies.

Tester

And yet...

... putting all your eggs in the same basket is the perfect recipe for disaster.

It happened with Microsoft, it happened with Blackberry and there's no guarantee that they'll get kicked in the ass again.

Jim Glue

Hi tester, not sure of the context of your remark about all eggs being in one basket.

News of the really bad screen on the Pixel 2 XL are pouring out. We are seeing the difference between people who care (Apple) and people who don't.

Which is better, LCD or OLED? Well, whichever one gives you the truest color. Not the most punchiest (Samsung), but correct.

From the iPhone 7 on, Apple actually color calibrates EACH iPhone. So what you see on screen is what is in the image. It's not punchier if the underlaying image isn't punchier. It's not brighter if the underlaying image isn't brighter. Wide color gamut...and color correction.

Enter the Pixel 2 XL. The SCREEN is off color. Not the photos the camera takes. The screen itself is off....way off. Forget about "off when you look from a different angle"...it's that too..but even straight on, it's off.

That means you can't edit your photos on the device. If you make them look good on your Pixel 2XL, they will look bad everywhere else.

Maybe a phone is sexier if the screen bends around the edges, or has a ridiculous number of pixels per inch...or is huge. Lots of things people talk about when comparing phones.

Meanwhile....Google has dropped the ball greatly on showing correct colors. Not taking pictures with correct colors...just SHOWING them.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Jim:

And yet, Android is not dependent on the Pixels success.

It only takes one or two fuckups by Apple to take down iOS though. Can they handle that pressure?

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Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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