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September 25, 2017

Comments

Jim Glue

Let's say it's 5 million until we have Tomi weigh in on the numbers. 5 million across 3 (or is it 4) product lines with all but one of those at cheap prices (where volume sales found).

Is that good? Is that the sign of the world's most powerful brand selling into the world's largest fan base after having been unavailable for a couple years?

I'm still waiting for Nokia to make good on their Oreo Update. That will be the critical difference. I don't think Nokia has hit attractive price points. At least...not cheap enough that price is a driving force.

They aren't way over priced or anything (well, except for the Nokia 8). It's just that they are selling "built better, reliable and supported) but also charging more than the going rate. In other words, a fair deal for those who value those things (I am such a shopper).

BUT - until they ship Oreo 8 on those cheap phones instead of just talking about it...we can't judge them favorably.

We also have to wait and see if there are problems with Nokia customers actually getting to install the update. Have the carriers locked those phones down?

If they really can pull of an "Apple like" (ok, that isn't happening) but at least a "Nexus like" update experience at mid-range price points...that would be something special. And when words gets out that Nokia is delivering on their promise in that regard, we should see those sales numbers increase.

At the moment, I think 5 million across their product lines for a global launch of a powerful brand...isn't impressive.

Huber

@Jim Glue:

The Nokia 6 was received quite well at its price, see e.g here: https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2017/02/nokia-6-hands-on-this-brand-new-android-oem-is-worth-your-attention/?comments=1&post=32895803

The biggest mistake Nokia has made IMO is not heing developer-friendly. Instead of at least providing an unlock.bin-file for bootloader unlocking, they released the devices totally locked down.

For the likes of Samsung or Apple this may only be a small niche not worthy of caring for, but for a new OEM like the new Nokia a few million enthusiasts as customers can quite make a difference.

Heck, I would not have only provided some unlock-file, I would have given my customers the actual KEY for their bootloader! Think about it, with such a key you could lock your device to your liking, e.g signing a superuser-zip so you would have root with a locked bootloader. Or you could sign a ROM yourself and install it, fully secure if you omit root.

Now THIS would have surely given Nokia a few million immediate sales and a top spot in the enthusiasts' minds for future profits. Add to this their sales in markets where they still have a strong Featurephone/dumb phone presence, and things would look better.

Jim Glue

Hi Huber,

I'm not debating whether these are good phones. They seem like quality choices, even if not "outstanding for the price". It's just that I've been primed to understand Nokia (outside the US) is the world's most powerful brand. I'm not trying to go by my "US sensibilities".

I'm glad some form of Nokia is back in the smartphone business. I feel cheated that by the time I started paying attention to mobile, Nokia was "yesterday's news". I was quite looking forward to the company that invented everything, had everything years before the iPhone...to see what they can do.

Phil W

Be aware that the figures are based on the download of the Nokia app from the play store. As the play store is not available in China, it excludes all the China sales.

Phil W

I have bought the Nokia 5 and am very pleased with it. The security updates have arrived as promised and I understand HMD are saying we will all receive the Oreo upgrade before Xmas. I have also read that they promising the P upgrade that comes along later to all current Nokia phones. We will see.....

Paul

Finally numbers for Nokia sales!!!
IDC (remember IDC? The house that provides reliable numbers on mobile?) has estimated HMD sales 1.5 million in the second quarter of 2017 (actually for 1st half but the add that phones were only sold for one quarter there). IDC gives a split of 1/3 sold in Asia and 2/3 sold in Europe.
Oh and they say Nokia is currently 5th largest smartphone brand in Finland and 11th in Europe. They believe Nokia can also reach that 5th position in Europe in “12 to 18 months”.

https://www.is.fi/digitoday/mobiili/art-2000005402844.html

b

@Paul

that's great news! I am already planning to get a Nokia phone!

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi gang

So yeah, Windows dead. (just the smartphone bit, sadly). Yeah. Wrote a gloating blog about it. Enjoy

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Winter

Thank you for that link! I posted it also to my Twitter followers and thanked you there for the HMD number early tidbits of info. Great find!

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Kiitos Asko

Thank you Asko for reporting the carrier support to HMD/Nokia out of Finland. Not surprising that Finland would be (among) first but it is quite strong endorsement this early, when no real numbers or facts are out yet. Very good sign and thank you for the 'intel' haha.. (I also Tweeted it to my followers and thanked you in the Tweet)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Paul

Thank you for the link to the story by Ilta-Sanomat in Finland, and especially thanks for translating the info for our readers, some who actually can't read Finnish, would you believe that? Haha. Seriously, thanks Paul! I Tweeted the news to my followers and thanked you for the find.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

On the tidbits of HMD, some quick math.. It seems consistent that at the end of Q2 the total sold number was 'more than a million' but under 5 million. The IDC numbers (0.4% global market share the best actual indicator) suggest currently HMD is doing about 1.5M per quarter. That would likely be the end-of-Q2 level, and lags a bit on a rapidly-ramping up business but fair to say, a good rough estimate is that HMD did about 1.5M in Q2. (PS good comment that the Nokia Power User measurements ignored China sales, so reality is likely more than 'just over 1 million' but probably still well under 5 million cumulative sales so far)

If so, they were already offering several handsets in many major markets, that is a nice start but alone they can't do it. They now need strong carrier support to live up to the full potential. This level of sales (1.5M in Q2) would be reasonably consistent with levels in the 3M to 4M level for now Christmas Qtr ie October-December Q4 of 2017. That would still be well under 1% market share (ie would be about 0.7%) but a very VERY strong launch year with a lot of promise for 2018.

Please do keep the info coming in, this is a nice story to monitor and happily for HMD and Nokia, there is good news brewing. I also hear from some of my spies that there is some pretty nice recruiting going on in probably helping bring more innovative Nokia/HMD products to the market in the future.. they're not done by any means - and my two cents on that, is that this is rather 'prudent' to go in with 'stages' and see how solid the actual reality is, for a Nokia come-back starting 2017, and not go wild hiring everybody and buying everything, to see it all go belly-up. They are ramping up, but doing it with a lot of planning and strategic focus, plus working through the testing bits first - to see if the initial products do find a market (still) and how solid the Nokia brands is (still today).

Haha, so 11th in Europe? Thats not bad, but 5th in Finland yeah... I can see that some carrier finds it now worth advertising, and then ... the popularity of the Nokia brand in Finland... is similar to what it was in haha India, Nigeria, Brazil... we COULD see some rapid successses out of some emerging world markets soon too - in particular if the local carriers decide to jump onboard. We'll see.

But yeah I think the early news is consistent with 1.5M sales of HMD Android smartphones in Q2, aiming for between 3M and 4M for Q4 and the just-ended Q3 would therefore have been something along the lines of 2M to 2.5M units. My rough guesses.

I'll do a blog about this also shortly.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Gang

Was on Twitter and the math just hit me... The numbers for HMD could look something like Q2 2017 1.5M, Q3 2017 2.5M, Q3 2017 3.5M and Q1 of 2018 3.0M. You know what that spells? Its the same level as iPhone in its first 12 months... just over 10 million units.

THAT would be a VERY nice way to start your come-back. Then push it just a bit, so you can brag you're doing 'better than Apple did in its first year' even if by 100,000 or 200,000 total units.

(anyone at HMD Marketing listening?)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Jim Glue

Well...let me be the curmudgeon. This is the Nokia brand. This isn't the Essential phone. This isn't Alcatel, Oppo, Vivo, or BLU. This is the Nokia brand, Nokia management and Foxconn manufacturing. They were a year late in getting the first phones out and they do not appear to be selling anything like the Nokia brand, world's most powerful brand, should sell.

They didn't have to invent their own OS, they aren't having to manufacture.

From the reviews (as I don't have one yet) they are decently built phones with nothing special about them other than Nokia's brand and a promise to be upgraded to new Android versions (a killer feature if it ever comes true). They are priced at the top of each tier they aim for. Well, the Nokia 8 is priced at last year's iPhone/Galaxy level (but isn't ready to go toe to toe on specs yet).

In other words, HMD/Nokia has done all they should have needed to do. The Nokia brand should be doing the rest. And these are not promising sales for the world's most powerful brand.

Which means it's not a powerful brand any more. Sure, HMD may in the future create amazing phones with innovation ahead of the competition. And when THOSE phones come out, we can reevaluate their chances. Right now...I'd rate HMD/Foxconn as under performing what should have been a great brand.

Piot

"anyone at HMD Marketing listening?"

Why would HMD (or anyone come to that) brag about beating sales numbers from over a decade ago?

Phil W

Well most of the news and technology sites I've seen seem to think it's a solid enough start.

Tester

@Piot:

The job of marketing people is to spin any numbers into something positive sounding. And 'Hey, we started better than Apple did 10 years ago' while conveniently omitting the context is definitely a good marketing stunt most people won't be able to recognize as spinning numbers that do not really mean anything worthwile.

Apple has done the same thing repeatedly as well.

Piot

@huber

The fact that you actually put "10 years ago" in your headline says it all.

don't give up your day job.

Tomi T Ahonen

Ok gang

The numbers are up. Enjoy the blog with the first ever published estimate by anyone of 2017 quarterly sales levels of Nokia HMD Android phones... (your wish is my blog)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

So ZTE has done it. And look at that image of the open screen and what it shows, then tell me, is this really 'worth it' ?? Here is link to story (and image)

http://gadgets.ndtv.com/mobiles/news/zte-axon-m-launch-price-specifications-foldable-dual-screen-smartphone-1764354

Yeah.. it IS bigger but gosh, what is the gain? Nearly nothing

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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