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« Anticipating Apple Strategy Shift with iPhone, with Warning From History | Main

September 13, 2017



Not sure about the Apple Watch - the remote heart beat monitoring feature might become the "killer" (sic!) health application for the elder generation. In case this takes off, it might support sales of a few 10 millions of Apple Watches per quarter world wide.

Still, to me the Apple Watch design looks clunky compared to my SUUNTO watch. Also, who wants a watch requiring re-charging every 18h (though maybe this is intended to spark a trend towards having two Apple Watches, one for day time and one for night time usage and health monitoring? ;-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Piot

Great points on the timing issues with the new releases. That delays the impact of the next wave, means Q3 of 2017 (July-Sept) and Q4 of 2017 (Oct-Dec) will be somewhat worse than 'normal' but the actual business will still mostly come, but with a delay, into late Q4 of 2017 and into Q1 of 2018 (Jan-Mar). That means likely calendar Q3 and Q4 of this year are down by these matters, vs 'normal' and Q1 (and possibly even Q2) conversely somewhat up vs normal. That DOES mean, that there is SOME lost business, of those who had wanted to upgrade, would have bought the iPhone X but won't wait, and take a Galaxy Note or whatever as their alternative instead. Some of the 'lost business' from the delayed launches will be recaptured in the next period/s but some of the lost business will go to competitors.

Tomi Ahonen :-)


It looks like iPhone X is called nowadays iCon!

Jim Glue

Hi Wolf,

If you charge your phone every day, it's not hard to charge your watch. With the Watch 2 I'm getting 36 hours on a charge. So if I forget, I'm good for the second day until I get home from work. You see, I like to monitor my sleep so I wear the watch in bed.

I put the Watch on the charger when I get up, and by the time I'm done showering, dressing and have eaten my's good to go. Or sometimes it's when I get home from work, and put it on charge until after dinner. It's not hard at all and I'm sure most people won't wear it though the night.


So, will there be another generation of Apple Watch or is this third one the last one?


"Today the latest smartphone OS data from Kantar revealed that in the three months ending July 2017, iOS performance was strong in the USA, China, and Japan. iOS market share in the EU5 was flat, held back by a resurgent Samsung in Great Britain. Android gained 2.8 percentage points across EU5 with Sony and Huawei the top performers. Europe's big five markets include Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.

In the USA, Samsung remained in the top spot during the three months ending in July with a 36.2% share, with Apple close behind at 34.1%. The growth rates of the two brands are almost exactly matched at 2.5% for Samsung and 2.6% for Apple.

The iPhone 7 was the top-selling handset during the period at 12.6% of sales, while the newer Samsung Galaxy S8 stood at 8.8%.

"Apple's US growth is very impressive, given that an all-new iPhone is expected to be announced on September 12, and should become available for purchase later in the month," Sunnebo added.

Apple saw something of a rebound in Urban China in the July data period, with share +5.1%pts to 19.3%. The large screen iPhone 7 Plus was the top selling device in Urban China in the month of July, the first time the Plus version has outsold the smaller screen iPhone 7."

There we go. It is going to be a fantastic super cycle.

Jim Glue

Another interesting thing - Qi wireless. Very un-Apple like to simply support an existing standard for such a major feature. I can't remember the last time Apple came out with a new interface and said "you can buy dongles/adapters/whatever from this company and that company". Where is the Apple Tax...demanding you buy APPLE wireless charging pads?

There is no doubt this is a "me too, finally" feature. Apple is not only late to the bandwagon, they didn't improve it or put any sort of Apple spin. Just "here you go, a feature that has existed for years in other phones we now provide you....and it's no better or worse than the other phones".

With Apple's screen there ARE "Apple magic dust" included. Sure, it's OLED, but it's High Dynamic Range, Wide Color Gamut, color calibrated with 3D-Touch.

And yes, like every "bezel-less" phone that's come before it (if only by a few months)...there is no home button. But Apple didn't put a button on the back of the phone...heavens no. Apple comes out with this 3D, 30,000 dots projected, AI driven Face ID feature to make it so you won't miss the home button. Face detection that is secure, quick and reliable and works in the dark. Very Apple-y.

BTW, there is NO WAY that Face ID feature was a last minute fix due to Apple not getting TouchID working with the screen. That feature took years of development. know. It's an OLED screen so the iPhone is "the same" (sure)



"That DOES mean, that there is SOME lost business.... "

Oh Tomi,
A few more weeks to wait?
Apple's loyal customers?
The richest/geekiest ones?
The ones with probably the most invested in the Apple ecosystem?

Lost business? I think you mean rounding error.

Tomi you fail to see the ultimate irony that you have consistently complained about Apple 'losing business' or 'leaving money on the table' or interested only in 'temporary profits; and etc etc... yet somehow they accidentally became the wealthiest company on the planet.

Funny that.




Every time Tomi does an Apple article the Fandroids and iSheep go to war in the comments, and both sides end up looking like morons.


@E. Casais
> Appraise Apple Watch against Swatch Group or Timex Group for a somewhat more correct perspective

Let's start with Timex Group. They are a flop, if they would be selling they would be shouting their numbers like Samsung! Oh, they don't release any numbers and also Samsung has been very cagey for the lsat 5 years or so. I guess everyone is a flop.

Actually I do not see a problem comparing to other watch makers, no matter the price. Revenue and profit are what matter for the company. And both seem very healthy from the Apple Watch business.

> Oh BTW Apple is now competing against the Playstation, Xbox and Nintendon with the Apple TV 4K. So this will be interesting

Indeed, competing so hard that they forgot to include a controller. Gaming on Apple TV is secondary. As long as it is just an additional pipe for their mobile developers, Apple is not a first party game producer, the hardware is lacklustre and the game controller issue is fixed, they won't be even close the companies who take game consoles and gaming seriously.

They did have a few good things in the media side, like exclusivity to thatgamecompany's next game and the 4k content pricing and upgrades. But all in all lacks focus, and unique content. E.g. video content from Apple or a proper cable cutter solution (e.g. Sony is trying with Vue).

Just a general comment: I am amused to see complaints on Apple's $999 phone and appraisal of Samsung's $929 phone at such a close proximity. The one is obvilously just stupid and doomed, and the other best thing ever.


"Indeed, competing so hard that they forgot to include a controller."

No they didn't. You can buy third party controllers plus your iPhone or iPad works as one. Apple wants the partners to take care of that.

john F.

OK, as I can see, there is not much understanding of the watch market over here, please understand, there is solid data and plenty of information, you are not using it.

A quick overview, 1,2 billion watches are sold annually, around 85 million above AVS of 500$, the rest is bellow 350 US, a large/HUGE portion is bellow 150$

Apple did not compare itself to Rolex in units but revenue, this is an important number as rolex iwas the largest SINGLE leading brand ofthe above 500$ category with an estimated revenue of around 5 billion dollars.

Apple overtook Rolex, by growing 50 YoY, so take your guess, between 6 and 7 billion in revenues.

Don’t name Swatch/omega group being the number 1, you are flat out wrong.

Omega as a SINGLE brand is 2,3 billion dollars, Swatch as a single brand is 740 million dollars and the swatch group includes 15 additional brands like Rado, Tissot, Longines, Blancpain….

Those of you thinking this is just a fad, like someone said of the internet, you are wrong, a few years from now many functions will migrate to things you wear and a watch that is a phone is a different animal, 3rd generation and growing.

Battery? wait a couple of years. Daily charge? do I care if it recharges while I sleep?

The watch is a segment in itself and for now, comparing it to a mobile is ridiculous. Apples to Apples ....-))


Definitely looks like the virtual SIM used on Apple Watch is a feature Apple will introduce on iPhone. Currently the operators seem to be really interested about a feature like that.

It would allow them to sell mobile subscriptions without the need for the customer to get a physical SIM card. A big change and let's face it, the need for a physical card is a thing from the past.

Olivier Barthelemy

@lullz: On the contrary, I've been told the carriers strongly resist the move: they want to have direct contact with the customers, not to let OEMs maneuver them into being just a line in a long list. Who cares what customers prefer ^^



"A big change and let's face it, the need for a physical card is a thing from the past."

For Apple it may be a great idea. For anyone else, not so much. Being dependent on the phone to access your account is problematic at best and a dick move at worst - classic Apple to create more vendor lock-in and limit user options to what Apple approves of.

I cannot imagine that there's any carrier that may welcome such a move. Apple forced them into a corner once, and now they try again, and like last time, it's the carriers that will lose out in the end, not to mention the customers who will see far more limitations in the contracts they can purchase. - And, of course, if Apple plays this the hard way (which I'd expect) some actions from the European antitrust agencies.)

Jim Glue

Hi Tester,

How is this a "dick move"? Buying a phone and being able to use it on any carrier...without having to go to the carrier store or order a SIM a customer friendly move. Having an LTE watch that isn't the size and appearance of a home prison monitoring device (brilliant line at the Apple Watch reveal) is also customer friendly.

Carrier friendly? Of course not. It's the CARRIERS that want to make it difficult for you to use your phone on any other carriers network.

But the power and magic of Apple is on clear display. Not the first to introduce an LTE smart watch...but the first to produce on you want to wear...AND the first one to make deals with the carriers to allow the Watch and your phone use the same phone number. That's the kind of innovation you really don't get from anybody else.

4K Apple Tv. Late to the game, BUT Apple negotiated all the content producers (save hold out Disney) to allow you to get the 4k version of a movie you already bought for no extra charge.

Abdul Muis

Funny thing is...

One of the reason CDMA was not popular and loosing the fight against GSM because CDMA in early age were cardless.

Apple virtual sim is a step back


"Buying a phone and being able to use it on any carrier".

But that is already the case -- exchange the SIM card for another one. There even are dual and even triple-SIM devices that allow you to use 2 or 3 operators nearly simultaneously. The virtual SIM card will not bring anything totally new, it may streamline some of this.

More to the point: a physical SIM allows you to change the _device_ you want to use (another phone, a wireless USB key, etc), just by switching the SIM card from one device to another.

How to achieve that with a virtual SIM?

CDMA devices were optimized for operators: one could not use a device with a different operator, nor use a different device with the same operator without some hassle and buying it from the operator (instead of just switching a SIM). I am not convinced that giving Apple (or any other manufacturer) the control of the SIM will not inevitably result in restrictions as to switching amongst devices -- except this time the manufacturer will be in control (and not the operator, nor the end-user).

The virtual SIM card is a nifty idea; except that there is always a price to pay for convenience (and it often is not worthwhile paying for it). I look forward to getting more in-depth information about everything it actually entails.

Jim Glue

You buy the Apple Watch. You have the Apple Watch. You aren't trying to use other watches. Apple worked it out with the carriers so that these Watch accounts aren't a second line with their own sim and number.

But let's ignore the Watch and the "two devices, one line" aspect. If the iPhone came with a sim-chip that worked with all the carriers. How is that a bad thing? You could use your iPhone on any carrier, switch at will and never have to worry about acquiring a SIM card. have non-iPhone devices. Great...continue to use SIM cards are you were already doing.

Isceald Glede

You missed the new big feature: the price.
Here is a phone that proudly screams "I have more money than sense" to gold-diggers everywhere. There are plenty of countries where that is the primary purpose of an iPhone.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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