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« Anticipating Apple Strategy Shift with iPhone, with Warning From History | Main | It Opens Like a Book - How 'Good' Would a Fold-Open Screen Be Like? Anticipating Samsung Innovation »

September 13, 2017


James Glu

Dxo Labs says iPhone 8 cameras best ever in a smartphone. Same company that crowned the Pixel last year. Just goes to show you that you can't tell what has or hasn't improved by reading the specs.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

It is amusing watching these Apple fanboys come together. They all tend to ignore the bad news about Apple and long term worries and focus on the present.

Pretty much exactly how climate change deniers behave. Very similar in fact... :)



> The lines should have been down. The exciting iPhone isn't out yet and
> STILL there were lines all over the world.

This is a lame excuse for iPhone's failure. Do you mean that the queue will form when iPhone XXX will be out. Right?


> Dxo Labs says iPhone 8 cameras best ever in a smartphone

This is bullshit!

Per "wertigon" Ekström


How many hurricanes have the US faced now, only this year? Five? Six?

Nothing wrong with the weather, nothing wrong with the climate, nossire... :)


I think it's a very telling sign that the only Apple proponents are the same hopeless two individuals - just with ever changing names - that have been sabotaging all serious discussion here for years and nearly driven out all other participants with their endless tirades of bullshit.

James Glu

What serious discussion is lacking? Android won the marketshare war years ago and there are no contenders whatsoever.

During that same time...well, starting one year prior...the iPhone has been its own phenomena. It’s the best selling phone every year, and the second best selling platform, and second best selling unit count.

If you aren’t making the are making a phone to compete against the iPhone. Even when you pioneer a feature, it’s greatness or not is in comparison to,the iPhone. If a feature is launched first on an Android phone..,it may or may not catch on. If a feature appears on the iPhone it WILL catch on as soon as possible.

Motorola Ateix had a finger print reader. Nobody else followed. The iPhone did TouchID right and every leading flagship has had one ever since....after the year or so it took to catch up.

The Note has the S-Pen. No other Android phone has added pen support. Were the Apple Pencil to come to the iPhone...all flagships would need one.

Android phones pioneered the large screen format. Apple waited years before getting around to the larger format. That may have been a fault, but clearly Apple doesn’t have any urgency to be like Android phones.

Then there was the 64bit Apple chip. There was no plan on Qualcomm's part to go there any time soon. The next DAY Samsung's CEO was vowing that they too would have a 64 bit chip.

It should be obvious that it is Apple that still sets the agenda and direction of the smartphone world. What smartphone conversation is ther that doesn’t have the iPhone as part of the discussion?


Could we return to the iPhone?

Where I live the iPhone X 256GB is not yet available but can be ordered. For the proud price (converted) of USD 1432.


The price, and the feature set of the iPhone X, confirm my suspicion that this is a defensive move by Apple. The firm is trying to corral a part of the phablet market segment by offering a product similar to other Android phablets, with an equivalent feature set, but even more premium than the most premium of the Galaxies and Notes of the world.

At that price, this will remain a niche, but may prevent Samsung and others to expand their share of the high-end market via leaking Apple customers to premium Android phablets.

It is a bit comparable to the iPhone SE, which was a defensive move too -- avoid losing Apple customers faithful to the classic "one-hand" small iPhone form factor by seeing them switch to the enticing Xperias Compact.

The iPhones 8/8+, with their solid, typical design and feature set, will constitute the mainstay of Apple strategy in the market. Although at USD 1116, the iPhone 8+ 256GB is also pushing the envelope towards the super-premium (the Samsung Galaxy Note 8 64GB is USD 1042).

I do not see how such horrendously expensive handsets can be construed as the future of mobile phones.

James Glu

Defensive or offensive? I’d say it’s offensive in that it’s a device that can pull some folks away from premium Android. There is no indication whatsoever that any premium Android phone is making inroads into the iPhone base.

To the extent that any share is being taken away, it’s at the low end. The iPhone SE was also both defensive and offensive.

I remain surprised at how long people can maintain the perspective that Apple is in trouble. Apple is the serious and ferocious competitor. There is yet to be a successful strategy against the iPhone.

The only hope is to go where Apple isn’t going. At first Apple had exclusivity agreements, so Android succeeded on every career that couldn’t sell iPhones....and in geographic regions Apple hadn’t yet broached.

Now it’s purely a price point matter. Apple’s “falling marketshare” is TOTALLY about price points where Apple offers no products. There is pitifully little money to be made in those market segments and we can rely on Apple leaving those segments to Android for the time being.

iPhone X is MOSTLY about enticing upgraders and setting up an even more profitable tier. Unlike Android, Apple has a healthy premium market who’s biggest obstacle is the excellent quality of the iPhones it’s customers already own.

It is also a halo product, something for the install base to aspire to own.

Tomi has predicted that the 3 new iPhones can’t help Apple sell more phones. He may be right, but only due to the size of the premium market. We new There would eventually be a limit. I personally don’t think we have. And I think Apple will continue to eat Samsung's premium sales....just not in a huge measure this time.

Why? I think the Note 8 and Galaxy 8 are superb devices.....and the iPhone X will be supply constrained. I see zero hope for big gains by the Bothie Nokia dream machine, the Essential phone or the Pixel line. The iPhone line will have a great year with the SuperCycle but will be limited by the iPhone X short supply.

The big mystery will be compelling AI apps. Once those start arriving, the power lead Apple has will come into play and drive more switchers. Don’t know if that will be a “this year” phenomena or next.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@James: Except for, you know, Sandy, Irene, Arthur, Matthew, Dolly, Ike, Humberto, Ophelia, Rita...

And except for, you know, scientific consensus, like:

But yes, there is no reason to think global warming isn't happening. Just as there is no reason to think the declining market share of Apple is not a big concern.


"But yes, there is no reason to think global warming isn't happening. Just as there is no reason to think the declining market share of Apple is not a big concern."

Have you ever heard of "logical fallacies"?
Eh, never mind of my sceptic side. Yours sounds like more fun way to make reasoning than mine, let me try this too:

"There is no reason to think the Earth wouldn't revolve around the Sun. Just as there is no reason to think vegetarist diet wouldn't be unhealthy."

Yes, I think your logic is unarguable. Declining Apple market share is a big concern (and also vegetarist diet cannot be healthy). Go you.

Per "wertigon" Ekström


My argument, this whole time:

Fact: Apple runs their own platform.
Fact: Historicly speaking, minority platforms have a very difficult road ahead of them, just look at Solaris, Blackberry and the original MacOS. How many of those are hanging around today?

Conclusion: Any platform with less than 15% market share in a duopoly market will eventually fail.
Hypothesis: If Apple has less than 15% market share, Apple will eventually fail.

Now, can you agree this is a likely scenario? I ask again and again, what makes Apple different from Sun, Blackberry and itself in the nineties? And I see nothing that makes them different from then. Except a bigger customer base, sure, enough to sustain for quite a while...

But the fundamentals have not changed.


@LongAAPL a.k.a @LongApple a.k.a @LongAAPL1997

"Again. Apple can't move to large screens just like that. There has to be manufacturing capasity of hundreds of millions. Apple is too successful that these also runs gets to be first and Apple just have to wait patiently. Apple buys the displays from LG, Samsung and Japan Display. We get Apples own displays when they move to their own Quantum Dot technology. Then they ditch all the other displays. Again we have to wait because the manufacturing is not yet even started."



@LongAAPL a.k.a @LongApple a.k.a @LongAAPL1997

"It is amazing what the Android sufferers has to go through =|

"There are two versions of the Go Keyboard [1, 2] that exhibit this behavior, Meshkov said. Both of them have an installation count between 100 and 500 million users, meaning the number of affected users ranges from 200 million to 1 billion."

And that is just a tip of the iceberg. Android users are so effed."


Apple is secure
Apple has no flaw


Abdul Muis


Thank you LongAAPL, you my saviour, I will trash my Android phone, and will change to iPhone, because iPhone is so secure....

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With an iPhone hacker, you will be in a position to remotely hack and track the iPhone at the comfort of your PC. What’s even better is the fact that most of these iPhone hacking apps cannot be detected, hence giving you the peace of mind that you are completely covered.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Been a'thinking about screens. Specifically folding screens as we may get one from Samsung next year.. New blog, am not so hopeful about the idea now that I've had time to think about it. Enjoy

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Lullz

On virtual SIM card. Apple is fighting to get rid of SIM card, so Apple could marginalize the carrier community and turn them into bit-pipes. Apple would then have the luxury of negotiating from enormous position of strength and be like a 'super MVNO' where most of the most-valuable customers would be. Carriers see this gambit and are fighting tooth-and-nail, for... unfortunately, a tech that is about past-its-prime. In the long run something like a virtual SIM will probably emerge, but so far, Apple's several attempts at it, have either failed (iPhone 4 & Antennagate, as Apple was forced to redesign the iPhone 4 they had intended to be without a SIM slot, with last-minute addition of SIM slot when carriers revolted) or have truly just nipped at the very edges (iPad virtual SIM). Now they do it again with the Apple Watch.

I personally don't see the sense in what Apple is doing. They seem to be deliberately hardening the resistance to virtual SIMs and setting Apple to be the 'next most hated handset maker' after Microsoft was with Skype. This to me, is not wise strategy, in particular in an industry where the carriers are the gatekeepers and they can punish Apple greatly if they decide to do so (as a group). See Nokia with N-Gage, Microsoft with Danger, Apple iPhone 4 delay, Microsoft again with Windows & Skype, Nokia again with Lumia (and Windows ie Skype). Apple currently may be 'too strong' but then the hatred will only grow deeper, and if and when the moment comes, when Apple is vulnerable, these carriers could be vengeful.

What would be SMART by Apple, is to get someone ELSE to do the bidding (this was Nokia's way) and only 'reluctantly' when OTHERS had already done it (something carriers hated), would Nokia be LATE in deploying something (like dual SIM for example). Obviously I am talking of Nokia in its sane days, before Elop. So Apple would be wise to let others push a virtual SIM and bide its time - but keep carrier relations warm - and then when the virtual SIM comes, THEN take the money from the carriers and push them into being bit-pipes haha... Thats how I'd do it :-)

So as to virtual SIM in an iPhone. I don't see it in the near term. But the Apple Watch is a sign that Apple does not care, if it angers the bee's nest with this tactic (for what gain? What possible gain? Are Apple engineers too weak at engineering, to not be able to put a microSIM slot into an Apple Watch and still make it waterproof? If they are that bad, they should hire some Asian engineers instead haha)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi c

I see it, thanks. I am monitoring.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Piot

Great point about iPhone X and market share ploy. It is not (today). It COULD HAVE BEEN when I suggested the $1,000 price level, years ago. THEN it would have been possible BOTH to raise the prices and gain share (as they actually DID with the phablets, but far later than I suggested, and with price rises that were trivial, compared to now).

So I am pointing out that this is a big wasted opportunity (or was). Now, if Apple did something MAJOR, that is when you can jack up the price considerbly - and still hold or even gain market share, especially with the loyalty they have. This is bad PRICING strategy by Apple. The phones are great designs. The pricing has been nutty from day 1.

BUT I am certain a great part of Apple's confusion in pricing strategy is directly derived from their distorted home market (the US handset market) and as Apple has grown to understand the modern mobile market (outside of USA) they have also learned more about the pricing realities - and hence, even though very slowly - they are learning. Same goes BTW with US market which is VERY slowly and late, getting rid of handset subsidies that bring a far more rational market behavior by consumers...

(Spoken like a former pricing manager yes...)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Wolf

Thanks and great comment yes. I think healthcare is one of the biggest, if not the biggest niche for Apple Watch. And conveniently for Apple, those are older richer people in the Industrialized Countries who have heartrate monitors and pacemakers and so fort (in poor countries old people just die)..

But that is a niche, within a niche. As to Suunto (Go Finland! I used to own a couple of Suunto compasses in my scouting days) yeah, they have some good wearable gear. This should boost their biz too

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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