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« Anticipating Apple Strategy Shift with iPhone, with Warning From History | Main | It Opens Like a Book - How 'Good' Would a Fold-Open Screen Be Like? Anticipating Samsung Innovation »

September 13, 2017

Comments

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@James: Except for, you know, Sandy, Irene, Arthur, Matthew, Dolly, Ike, Humberto, Ophelia, Rita...

And except for, you know, scientific consensus, like:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/hurricanes-global-warming.htm

But yes, there is no reason to think global warming isn't happening. Just as there is no reason to think the declining market share of Apple is not a big concern.

Piot

@PWE

"Just as there is no reason to think the declining market share of Apple is not a big concern"

I know you have your spreadsheet handy Per, so tell us... just how much smartphone market share has iPhone lost in the last three years (since the introduction of the larger models... 6/6+)?

Bonus question: How much share has iPhone last in the TOTAL mobile phone market over the same period?

Paul

@PWE
"But yes, there is no reason to think global warming isn't happening. Just as there is no reason to think the declining market share of Apple is not a big concern."

Have you ever heard of "logical fallacies"?
Eh, never mind of my sceptic side. Yours sounds like more fun way to make reasoning than mine, let me try this too:

"There is no reason to think the Earth wouldn't revolve around the Sun. Just as there is no reason to think vegetarist diet wouldn't be unhealthy."

Yes, I think your logic is unarguable. Declining Apple market share is a big concern (and also vegetarist diet cannot be healthy). Go you.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Jim:

My argument, this whole time:

Fact: Apple runs their own platform.
Fact: Historicly speaking, minority platforms have a very difficult road ahead of them, just look at Solaris, Blackberry and the original MacOS. How many of those are hanging around today?

Conclusion: Any platform with less than 15% market share in a duopoly market will eventually fail.
Hypothesis: If Apple has less than 15% market share, Apple will eventually fail.

Now, can you agree this is a likely scenario? I ask again and again, what makes Apple different from Sun, Blackberry and itself in the nineties? And I see nothing that makes them different from then. Except a bigger customer base, sure, enough to sustain for quite a while...

But the fundamentals have not changed.

LongAAPL1997

"But - Apple does follow industry trends led by others in addition to setting their own trend. If Dell had not pioneered the large screen"

Again. Apple can't move to large screens just like that. There has to be manufacturing capasity of hundreds of millions. Apple is too successful that these also runs gets to be first and Apple just have to wait patiently. Apple buys the displays from LG, Samsung and Japan Display. We get Apples own displays when they move to their own Quantum Dot technology. Then they ditch all the other displays. Again we have to wait because the manufacturing is not yet even started.

LongAAPL1997

It is amazing what the Android sufferers has to go through =|

https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/popular-android-keyboard-app-caught-collecting-user-data-running-external-code/

"There are two versions of the Go Keyboard [1, 2] that exhibit this behavior, Meshkov said. Both of them have an installation count between 100 and 500 million users, meaning the number of affected users ranges from 200 million to 1 billion."

And that is just a tip of the iceberg. Android users are so effed.

Meeeeooowwwww

@LongAAPL a.k.a @LongApple a.k.a @LongAAPL1997

"Again. Apple can't move to large screens just like that. There has to be manufacturing capasity of hundreds of millions. Apple is too successful that these also runs gets to be first and Apple just have to wait patiently. Apple buys the displays from LG, Samsung and Japan Display. We get Apples own displays when they move to their own Quantum Dot technology. Then they ditch all the other displays. Again we have to wait because the manufacturing is not yet even started."

catshit!!

Meeeeooowwwww

@LongAAPL a.k.a @LongApple a.k.a @LongAAPL1997

"It is amazing what the Android sufferers has to go through =|

https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/popular-android-keyboard-app-caught-collecting-user-data-running-external-code/

"There are two versions of the Go Keyboard [1, 2] that exhibit this behavior, Meshkov said. Both of them have an installation count between 100 and 500 million users, meaning the number of affected users ranges from 200 million to 1 billion."

And that is just a tip of the iceberg. Android users are so effed."

Catshit!!

Apple is secure
Apple has no flaw

Catshit!!

Abdul Muis

@LongAAPL1997

OMG...
Thank you LongAAPL, you my saviour, I will trash my Android phone, and will change to iPhone, because iPhone is so secure....

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http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/science-technology/776701/iPhone-Apple-iOS-hack-warning-WikiLeaks-Vault-7

---
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https://www.spyzie.com/hack/iphone-hacker.html

When it comes to hacking an iPhone, there exists a number of iPhone hacking apps that function by hacking iPhone’s hence allowing you to keep track of the target iPhone and the user. To effectively hack an iPhone, you must first have a highly versatile and effective iPhone hacker.

With an iPhone hacker, you will be in a position to remotely hack and track the iPhone at the comfort of your PC. What’s even better is the fact that most of these iPhone hacking apps cannot be detected, hence giving you the peace of mind that you are completely covered.

























Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Been a'thinking about screens. Specifically folding screens as we may get one from Samsung next year.. New blog, am not so hopeful about the idea now that I've had time to think about it. Enjoy

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Lullz

On virtual SIM card. Apple is fighting to get rid of SIM card, so Apple could marginalize the carrier community and turn them into bit-pipes. Apple would then have the luxury of negotiating from enormous position of strength and be like a 'super MVNO' where most of the most-valuable customers would be. Carriers see this gambit and are fighting tooth-and-nail, for... unfortunately, a tech that is about past-its-prime. In the long run something like a virtual SIM will probably emerge, but so far, Apple's several attempts at it, have either failed (iPhone 4 & Antennagate, as Apple was forced to redesign the iPhone 4 they had intended to be without a SIM slot, with last-minute addition of SIM slot when carriers revolted) or have truly just nipped at the very edges (iPad virtual SIM). Now they do it again with the Apple Watch.

I personally don't see the sense in what Apple is doing. They seem to be deliberately hardening the resistance to virtual SIMs and setting Apple to be the 'next most hated handset maker' after Microsoft was with Skype. This to me, is not wise strategy, in particular in an industry where the carriers are the gatekeepers and they can punish Apple greatly if they decide to do so (as a group). See Nokia with N-Gage, Microsoft with Danger, Apple iPhone 4 delay, Microsoft again with Windows & Skype, Nokia again with Lumia (and Windows ie Skype). Apple currently may be 'too strong' but then the hatred will only grow deeper, and if and when the moment comes, when Apple is vulnerable, these carriers could be vengeful.

What would be SMART by Apple, is to get someone ELSE to do the bidding (this was Nokia's way) and only 'reluctantly' when OTHERS had already done it (something carriers hated), would Nokia be LATE in deploying something (like dual SIM for example). Obviously I am talking of Nokia in its sane days, before Elop. So Apple would be wise to let others push a virtual SIM and bide its time - but keep carrier relations warm - and then when the virtual SIM comes, THEN take the money from the carriers and push them into being bit-pipes haha... Thats how I'd do it :-)

So as to virtual SIM in an iPhone. I don't see it in the near term. But the Apple Watch is a sign that Apple does not care, if it angers the bee's nest with this tactic (for what gain? What possible gain? Are Apple engineers too weak at engineering, to not be able to put a microSIM slot into an Apple Watch and still make it waterproof? If they are that bad, they should hire some Asian engineers instead haha)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi c

I see it, thanks. I am monitoring.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Piot

Great point about iPhone X and market share ploy. It is not (today). It COULD HAVE BEEN when I suggested the $1,000 price level, years ago. THEN it would have been possible BOTH to raise the prices and gain share (as they actually DID with the phablets, but far later than I suggested, and with price rises that were trivial, compared to now).

So I am pointing out that this is a big wasted opportunity (or was). Now, if Apple did something MAJOR, that is when you can jack up the price considerbly - and still hold or even gain market share, especially with the loyalty they have. This is bad PRICING strategy by Apple. The phones are great designs. The pricing has been nutty from day 1.

BUT I am certain a great part of Apple's confusion in pricing strategy is directly derived from their distorted home market (the US handset market) and as Apple has grown to understand the modern mobile market (outside of USA) they have also learned more about the pricing realities - and hence, even though very slowly - they are learning. Same goes BTW with US market which is VERY slowly and late, getting rid of handset subsidies that bring a far more rational market behavior by consumers...

(Spoken like a former pricing manager yes...)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Wolf

Thanks and great comment yes. I think healthcare is one of the biggest, if not the biggest niche for Apple Watch. And conveniently for Apple, those are older richer people in the Industrialized Countries who have heartrate monitors and pacemakers and so fort (in poor countries old people just die)..

But that is a niche, within a niche. As to Suunto (Go Finland! I used to own a couple of Suunto compasses in my scouting days) yeah, they have some good wearable gear. This should boost their biz too

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Tester

On virtual SIM.. great points. I agree. Thanks!

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi LongAAPL

I appreciate the comment that Intel is past its prime (and agree) but did you miss the story? The big elephant in the room is that Samsung HAS ALREADY PASSED Intel as world's biggest chipmaker. So Apple getting into the chip racket is trivial pain to Intel, compared to what Sammy has already done to their once-overwhelming empire

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Tester

On Apple Watch, fad & cool. Great point. That there are no others to have found any meaningful market in this area, means there is no sustainable market, and only Apple's hype keeps it temporarily afloat. The Apple Watch (and smart watches overall) illusion will be shattered when those who bought early versions tire of it (not all will, but when enough will) and many WILL stop wearing it, and/or not buy a further edition, which means also the ecosystem will be strangled. And the moment something else cool comes around, it will die. And wait until the 'brand of uncool' hits the iWrist. That is the fate of ANYTHING that is not really sustainable. At some point it is a MARK of being utterly uncool. That will bring rapid end to the fad.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

LongAAPL

Don't bring propaganda lies to this blog (you knew that was not true when you wrote it)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi paul

I know you were expecting something from me re HTC. I see it as just marginal support from G to HTC, and a defensive play in patents/royalties area. If G had bought HTC, then it would be newsworthy. Now its just an investment, not worth our while.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi z

Thanks! Was getting to it... :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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