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« I Dream. No I Still Dream the iDream. Shouldn’t Apple Give Us the iCamera Now? | Main | iPhone X: Now the pain »

September 06, 2017



Elop was neither incompetent nor he was lunatic. He was just the most selfish CEO in history. If windows phone had succeeded then he would have been made the CEO of Microsoft. That's why he had forced/misguided Nokia to switch to windows phone instead of Android. He had simply put his own interest above Nokia's. Note that if windows phone had succeeded then Samsung, HTC etc would have benefited more than Nokia because they would sell both windows and Android phones.



Actually, to me, being selfish counts as being incompetent as a CEO. He clearly did not act in his employer's best interest and that's what any competent CEO would do.


"Apple has the best TCO and ROI in the market."

Yeah, right. But only if you calculate in relative terms. That's nice number crunching if you factor out that the initial investment would be twice as high or even more. If you buy a phone for $300 and sell it two years later for $100 will have cost you the same $200 as buying for $650 and selling for $450 and that's the regions we are in here.

It doesn't matter if the cheaper competing product lost 66% of its value while the iPhone only lost ~30%.


The concept of Apple shifting strategy is completely wrong, specially when referring to the iphone, the more we consume the more there is a need for a device to let us consume, until market share is dismissed in Apple conversations, it will be difficult to reason with people who only understands that.

The assumption is mistaken because it assumes that the iphone is the last device people will ever need and once the decline starts it's the end, silly, the ipad is an example of that, for many, many more years we will need to carry/wear a mobile computer, some will buy cheap some like it status oriented, simple.

The cost for 3 years for any above 500 dollars is a few cents a day, less than most things you consume daily. I spend at least 30 euro daily between, food, coffee and transport just to make it to work, 35 cents a day make my life fun, productive and the residual value at the end of life is great, so for me an iphone is a bargain, I sold my iphone 6 for 320 dollars and got in the iphone seven for just 350 dollars, so its value is huge in many ways.

Here is India for example...The reason? iPhone has emerged as a primary class marker in India. After car, smartphone is the biggest status symbol, and iPhone leads in that role.

Read more at:

There is more to any branded status item than market share and the strategy to follow is value delivery.

With a stable 200 million phones a year ( it's around 250) and a 10% growth in other segments YoY apple will be safe for the next 10 years.. and then there is the unknown factor, what will apple do.

John A

Must rumours point to a starting price to around $999 for the iPhone 8 (or what it might be called) so I think this is a hard sell for Apple in many countries. I suppose in the US market it will be subsidised with some deals and so on.

But even Apple fans seems to be thinking twice before they consider to buy a device that expensive. Yes it got the "bezel less" design, but that are now more common among many brands. LG G6, Samsung Galaxy S8 are the most known examples. Even smaller Chinese brands got that design language now Doogee, Elephone, Vernee have one coming soon also.

Apple are not doomed of course. But I think their market have peaked in phones. Unless they going for more low budget devices. So I am very interested in their future strategy.

And some thoughts about the "New Nokia" it seems they have fixed the production/distribution issues now. No delays for the new Nokia 8. It came out fast in all markets basicly. They have expanded to Mexico, a new factory (by HMD Global and some local partners) for smartphones are built in Indonesia. So all Nokia phones in Indonesia will be produced localy.

So I think it will not be long before Nokia will be shown in the top ten list again.



"TCO is TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP. Purchasing price is one part of it yes. TCO is everything what you have to pay. Even if you get everything in for free then you have to calculate how many ads you have to watch everyday and what it does to your creativity and ho much work time you loose."

Need make crystal clear. Apple have ads. same. donot make stupid rumor. you look stupid make fake rumor.

Abdul Muis

@John A

"Must rumours point to a starting price to around $999 for the iPhone 8 (or what it might be called) so I think this is a hard sell for Apple in many countries. I suppose in the US market it will be subsidised with some deals and so on."

I don't think US$999 is very high for phone. Especially for fashion statement. Decade ago, Nokia could easily sell their communicator more than US$1000. Anyone that use phone for fashion statement would shell out US$999 without blinking.

The problem is the other phone (i.e. Samsung Galaxy S8/S8+/Note8) might be considered stylist too. So, iPhone is not the only fashion statement anymore.


"Apple has the best TCO and ROI in the market."

That reminds me of the people who produce ",proof" that Hummers are the most fuel efficient cars.

"That is why big companies like IBM, Accenture, Cisco and rest of the Fortune 500 are moving in masse to Apple products."

The TCO for a company rolling out thousands of devices to employees and TCO for a consumer are totally unrelated. TCO for a company is mostly management and maintenance. For consumers, it is direct costs of the device and the periferals.


@LongAAPL1997 (or whatever names you use)
"Apple has the best TCO and ROI in the market."

Sorry, in my previous comment, I fell for an old trick. The "Apple" products talked about here are the Macs, not the iPhones. We are discussing mobile handsets, and then suddenly it is about PCs and laptops.



> iPhones are expensive. 85% of the market does not buy new iPhones.

Very soon this will be "iPhones are VERY expensive. 92% of the market does not buy new iPhones."


"A risk with Apple going after increasing profits on a dwindling market share is coming to a point where app makers treat iOS as a secondary platform, delaying launches and updates, and carefully weighting whether their market is people who view high price as an attractive feature."

I haven't seen an analysis, but I wouldn't be too surprised if it's more profitable to develop for IOS, than for Android. A user who is willing to buy an expensive phone surely must be more willing to buy an app. Whereas a user who can't afford but the cheapest Android likely won't spend a dime on an app. For a developer I doubt value is in the number of users, unless adds pay more to the developer than I would expect...

Per "wertigon" Ekström


Apple strategy has gone absolutely freaking terrible if you look at market share and only market share.

But yes, Apple did good, will they keep that up? Doubtful but time will tell


@Michael: "A user who is willing to buy an expensive phone surely must be more willing to buy an app."

No. Most apps don't generate money on their own. Instead, they are developed for other companies (think bank/insurance, the app you use for your receiver instead of using the remote control etc.)

For such apps, the target audience counts. Additionally, such apps are usually free anyways.

Apps which make money on their own are the exception, not the rule.

Per "wertigon" Ekström


So, your argument is: Market share effects do not affect Apple because if they did, we'd already see it happen.

But we *are* seeing it happen Jim. Already developers are more reluctant to develop for iOS. Already many smartphone customers choose Android over iPhone, and this share is bound to increase over time, no matter how great phones they put out.

Just because it has not happened in a critical mass yet, does not mean it will not happen. You can close your eyes to these mechanisms, just like climate change deniers say "Can't see it so it ain't happening", but the mechanisms are still there.

As for market share, the iPhone is a failure as a mass market device, and this is the cold, hard and brutal fact. Might be it were never going for the mass market in the first place, but it is the mass market that makes your platform viable - atleast in the long run.

Apple is in no immediate danger, and will be around for the next 15 years. Apple could even be around for the next 50 years. But in smartphones? Once Apple hit peak units in iPhones, and they are nearly there, they will be destined to stay at < 10% market share indefinitely.

As for Apps, Jim, you're saying "Yeah but of the 5% that does make money, Apple takes most of that money." This is true. This is also the reason why their market share will slip faster than before. Because, well, apps slowly become an iPhone thing while the rest of the world moves to Webapps. Which can be made to work under iPhone as well. So Apps will be less and less a thing even on iPhones. Even games will gradually move to the web, some already have and others will follow.

So, sorry, but Apple has most of their eggs in a basket on top of a house of cards. It's but a matter of time before the fall, but for the next 5-10 years? Apple will have no problem at all.


Develop an iOS app or develop a webapp for half the cost? Remember, 99.99% of all App developers do not make money on their app directly.



> This means that all these companies who are chasing 'market share' are all in a race to the bottom. The question should be why.

Your logic is completely flawed. One can chase the market share without racing to the bottom. For example, in the first years after the iPhone was launched, Apple was chasing the market share without getting into the race to the bottom.

> Finally, whilst appreciating the huge profits apple makes from producing and selling it's iPhone, as well its services such as the app store, it is important to appreciate that Apple aren't just making the most profit in the smart phone market, they are making ALL of the profit in the smart phone market!

This is just bullshit. The math is completely wrong!

It is very obvious that Apple chose the path to extinction! In 20 years from now Apple will be again on verge of bankruptcy after burning of its money on iFlop/iCook projects, like for example iAd, iWatch, iCar.

Abdul Muis


"They are all invested in the platform and rightly so. Are they really going to abandon it?
The iOS users have invested money in purchasing these apps, so they have investment in the platform. Are they all really going to abandon the platform because some Chinese company brings out a cheaper product?"

Do you still play game that you buy 10 years ago? 5 years ago? 3 years ago?

There were several scenario.
1. The gamer.
They will own both device for a transition period. In fact, most gamer already own / not affraid to own multi platform device. Such as xbox & playstation & pc.
2. The average joe/jane
Most people only have a couple of games/apps that repurchasing again means nothing to them.
3. The freeloader.
Yes, iphone also have a user that don't buy apps at all.

If you talking about hardware that only compatible with iphone. They can sell it or give to someone they know.



"Develop an iOS app or develop a webapp for half the cost? Remember, 99.99% of all App developers do not make money on their app directly."

Indeed. The cold, hard truth is, that app development is a costly process and in the long run only works for complex software that needs more control than a web app can have.
Apple may try to stall this inevitable development but it's something they cannot win. Web apps are simply cheaper to develop and massively easier to deploy - just update your website's server and you are done. App approval is a time consuming process that's simply not viable for rapid development.

Simple economic metrics will decide this issue in favor of the web amd leave the app domain to games - which, as we all know, may make a lot of money but only target a fraction of smartphone uses - plus, no publisher can afford to ignore Android here, or lose out on the Asian market.


@Abdul Muis:

"Do you still play game that you buy 10 years ago? 5 years ago? 3 years ago?"

I still play games I bought 20 years ago! But that nonwithstanding, smartphone games are not expensive enough to serve as a platform-switching-blocker. Let's imagine someone wants to switch and would have to repurchase the stuff they want to continue to use for $30-50, but save $200-300 on the hardware - and that not just once but repeatedly. Who cares about that little bit of added software cost in such a situation? Any argument bringing that forth is just hogwash.


as a mass market platform, Android is great for Google as its business model relies on mass market exposure.
Not so great for competing android smartphone manufacturers who are increasingly struggling to differentiate themselves and make any sort out of profit out of something which is increasingly just becoming a comodity.

One has to end up asking, what is the point of going to the trouble of making a smartphone, if you're going to struggle to make any money out of it, or indeed value added services such as app stores, cloud storage, media sales, etc.

I think there will be a lot of casualties but I don't think it will be apple.

BTW- I'm no fan of apple per se, I'm just outlining how I see it which is contrary to Tomi's view



> iOS is a platform where 25% of Devs earn $5000/month+.

I call this bullshit! Any reference which supports this?



"My iPhone is completaly ad free (Microsoft and Google free too). I throw away every single app that tries to serve me adds. If the app is usefull I buy the ad free version of it. There is nothing worse than some idiot app throwing loud video on to your face in the middle of something important. Same is with the websites. Effing autoplay videos should burn in hell. (Yes I have remedies agaings those in with my Apple devices, but sometimes when you are using some other devices they can get you.)"

My Galaxy S8+ is same. ad free (microsoft and apple free too). so stop make bullshit about android = ad. it make you look foolish.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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