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« I Dream. No I Still Dream the iDream. Shouldn’t Apple Give Us the iCamera Now? | Main | iPhone X: Now the pain »

September 06, 2017

Comments

bjarneh

Interesting read. I love how you manage to cram in that "Elop is the worst CEO of all time" into most of your writing :-)

Following Jobs is not easy though; but that watch never made much sense, a pulse/smart watch that requires charging every night; with a touch screen to small to be useful..

Obviously you will fail in the long run if market share keeps dropping; these are technology products after all. "Being cool" does not matter to much if developers stop targeting your platform, which they might if market share gets small enough; just look at BlackBerry

LongAAPL1997

"Apple's biggest problem is exactly that 'they cannot do wrong' attitude"

Apple does not have that attitude. They know that they can do wrong. The Thing is that if something goes wrong they learn about it and will correct it. They have the stamina. Everyone in the Apple leadership has said this
So many times that you should start to listen and learn yourself. We know this, Apple knows this but you don't.

LongAAPL1997

"I expect that, when stock prices fall, Tim Cook will be replace by an ex MS manager "to turn Apple around"."

From which asylum did you escape??
Tim Cook will retire someday and that is sad and happy day. He will be celebrated. His follower comes from the COO side of Apple.

Winter

@LongAAPL etc.
I am sorry. I should have added the [humor] quotes. My bad.

Winter

@Jim Glue
" Apple came, Apple saw, Apple conquered."

In the end, mighty invincible Cesar was emperor for only 5 years.

LongAAPL1997

Why are you talking about Apples imaginary problems?

Why aren't you talking about Samsung's real problems?
http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2017/09/apple-beats-samsung-in-smartphone-sales-in-china-and-more-importantly-in-repeat-sales-by-a-staggering-margin.html

"According to a new report published by the Korea International Trade Association, Chinese customers owned 48 million Samsung cellphones as of end-June, making the company the sixth-largest player in the world's No. 2 economy. It was down two notches from its standing in the first quarter of last year.

In July Patently Apple posted a report titled "While Apple is Still Holding on to Fifth Spot in China, Samsung has fallen from Grace with a Paltry 3% Market Share."

The Trade Association's report called on Samsung to ramp up efforts to restore customer confidence in its cellphones. "Only 7.2 percent of Samsung phone owners repurchased Samsung products in the second quarter, far lower than 53.4 percent for iPhones and 25-26 percent for Oppo and Vivo. Samsung should regain customer confidence in its brand and establish a base of loyal customer again."

Where the report took a wild turn left is when the Korean International Trade Association claimed that Apple grabbed the top spot in China in Q2 2017 with 171 million handsets with Huawei in second spot with 132 million units; Oppo with 124 million units; Vivo with 108 million units and Xiaomi in fifth position with 68 million units sold. The information flies in the face of all other statistical data from the most known research firms."

Customers loves their Apple products and that is what Apple loves to do.


SDS

Apple should increase the price of its iPhones. Your typical iPhone buyers have proven to be extremely resilient when it comes to tolerating higher and higher prices for the iPhone. In fact, chances are that they will welcome such a step, for it will make the iPhone feel a little bit more exclusive and special.

LongAAPL1997

http://iphone.appleinsider.com/articles/17/09/07/apple-crushes-samsung-in-china-as-iphone-attracts-twice-the-loyalty-in-upgrades-over-domestic-brands

That is magnificent.

"A previous report in April by Counterpoint noted that "Apple's share of this super-premium segment remains at 80 percent, with five out of the top ten model SKUs belonging to Apple.""

Winter

@Jim Glue
"It's always been $650, marketed as $199 with contract. The price in US dollars hadn't changed in all this time."

With the prices of handsets falling, Apple went from 50% more than the average price of an Android handset in 2010 to 200% more (1.5 times to 3 times the price).

http://fortune.com/2016/02/15/apple-android-asps/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/510668/smartphone-average-selling-price-worldwide/

"During that time the memory included at that price has increased."

Which is customary US marketing nonsense. With fixed memory, it should have been massively cheaper now as memory prices have fallen by an order of magnitude, from $80 for 1GB in 2007 to $50 for 16GB in 2016.

http://www.jcmit.net/memoryprice.htm

LongAAPL1997

Lets end this price discussion once and for all.

http://www.asymco.com/2017/07/31/how-much-will-the-new-iphone-cost/

This is how it goes and what Apple does. Has done and will do in the future.

Olivier Barthelemy

Another way for Apple to grow sales i,n spite of a flat iPhone and w/o rising iPhone prices is to rise ancillary revenues. If I were an iPhone users, I'd be getting prepared to be milked relentlessly via ever more proprietary peripherals, app, content, and via rising prices for those.

LongAAPL1997

"If I were an iPhone users, I'd be getting prepared to be milked relentlessly via ever more proprietary peripherals, app, content, and via rising prices for those."

And this is yet again total BS. Owning Apple products is the total opposite. Apple has the best TCO and ROI in the market. That is why big companies like IBM, Accenture, Cisco and rest of the Fortune 500 are moving in masse to Apple products.

I don't get it how the hell Apple gets to be blamed about the things that Microsoft and Google has done.

jumbli

Elop was neither incompetent nor he was lunatic. He was just the most selfish CEO in history. If windows phone had succeeded then he would have been made the CEO of Microsoft. That's why he had forced/misguided Nokia to switch to windows phone instead of Android. He had simply put his own interest above Nokia's. Note that if windows phone had succeeded then Samsung, HTC etc would have benefited more than Nokia because they would sell both windows and Android phones.

Tester

@jumbli:

Actually, to me, being selfish counts as being incompetent as a CEO. He clearly did not act in his employer's best interest and that's what any competent CEO would do.

@LongAAPL:

"Apple has the best TCO and ROI in the market."

Yeah, right. But only if you calculate in relative terms. That's nice number crunching if you factor out that the initial investment would be twice as high or even more. If you buy a phone for $300 and sell it two years later for $100 will have cost you the same $200 as buying for $650 and selling for $450 and that's the regions we are in here.

It doesn't matter if the cheaper competing product lost 66% of its value while the iPhone only lost ~30%.

Gonzo

The concept of Apple shifting strategy is completely wrong, specially when referring to the iphone, the more we consume the more there is a need for a device to let us consume, until market share is dismissed in Apple conversations, it will be difficult to reason with people who only understands that.

The assumption is mistaken because it assumes that the iphone is the last device people will ever need and once the decline starts it's the end, silly, the ipad is an example of that, for many, many more years we will need to carry/wear a mobile computer, some will buy cheap some like it status oriented, simple.

The cost for 3 years for any above 500 dollars is a few cents a day, less than most things you consume daily. I spend at least 30 euro daily between, food, coffee and transport just to make it to work, 35 cents a day make my life fun, productive and the residual value at the end of life is great, so for me an iphone is a bargain, I sold my iphone 6 for 320 dollars and got in the iphone seven for just 350 dollars, so its value is huge in many ways.


Here is India for example...The reason? iPhone has emerged as a primary class marker in India. After car, smartphone is the biggest status symbol, and iPhone leads in that role.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/60435969.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/hardware/revealed-the-reason-why-iphone-manages-to-score-in-price-sensitive-market-like-india/articleshow/60435969.cms


There is more to any branded status item than market share and the strategy to follow is value delivery.

With a stable 200 million phones a year ( it's around 250) and a 10% growth in other segments YoY apple will be safe for the next 10 years.. and then there is the unknown factor, what will apple do.

LongAAPL1997

Amazing that the Fandroid and M$ chills can't get their head around of of the TCO concept.

"Yeah, right. But only if you calculate in relative terms. That's nice number crunching if you factor out that the initial investment would be twice as high or even more. If you buy a phone for $300 and sell it two years later for $100 will have cost you the same $200 as buying for $650 and selling for $450 and that's the regions we are in here.
It doesn't matter if the cheaper competing product lost 66% of its value while the iPhone only lost ~30%"

TCO is TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP. Purchasing price is one part of it yes. TCO is everything what you have to pay. Even if you get everything in for free then you have to calculate how many ads you have to watch everyday and what it does to your creativity and ho much work time you loose.


LongAAPL1997

Another massive failure:

"“Google is only after the mobile arm of HTC, Chinese-language Commercial Times explains,” Smith writes. “If accurate, this wouldn’t be the first time Google has bought a mobile device maker. We all remember Google’s 2012 $12.5 billion purchase of Motorola.”

“The whole thing turned out to be a financial disaster for Google, which ended up selling Motorola to Lenovo only two years later, for less than $3 billion,” Smith writes. “If Google isn’t bidding for HTC, then someone should. According to Digitimes, HTC’s August revenues were the lowest in 13 years…”


MacDailyNews Take: Why should someone buy a proven failure? Tax write-off?"

John A

Must rumours point to a starting price to around $999 for the iPhone 8 (or what it might be called) so I think this is a hard sell for Apple in many countries. I suppose in the US market it will be subsidised with some deals and so on.

But even Apple fans seems to be thinking twice before they consider to buy a device that expensive. Yes it got the "bezel less" design, but that are now more common among many brands. LG G6, Samsung Galaxy S8 are the most known examples. Even smaller Chinese brands got that design language now Doogee, Elephone, Vernee have one coming soon also.

Apple are not doomed of course. But I think their market have peaked in phones. Unless they going for more low budget devices. So I am very interested in their future strategy.

And some thoughts about the "New Nokia" it seems they have fixed the production/distribution issues now. No delays for the new Nokia 8. It came out fast in all markets basicly. They have expanded to Mexico, a new factory (by HMD Global and some local partners) for smartphones are built in Indonesia. So all Nokia phones in Indonesia will be produced localy.

So I think it will not be long before Nokia will be shown in the top ten list again.

ShortAAPLnow

@AAPLSheep

"TCO is TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP. Purchasing price is one part of it yes. TCO is everything what you have to pay. Even if you get everything in for free then you have to calculate how many ads you have to watch everyday and what it does to your creativity and ho much work time you loose."

Need make crystal clear. Apple have ads. same. donot make stupid rumor. you look stupid make fake rumor.

Abdul Muis

@John A

"Must rumours point to a starting price to around $999 for the iPhone 8 (or what it might be called) so I think this is a hard sell for Apple in many countries. I suppose in the US market it will be subsidised with some deals and so on."

I don't think US$999 is very high for phone. Especially for fashion statement. Decade ago, Nokia could easily sell their communicator more than US$1000. Anyone that use phone for fashion statement would shell out US$999 without blinking.

The problem is the other phone (i.e. Samsung Galaxy S8/S8+/Note8) might be considered stylist too. So, iPhone is not the only fashion statement anymore.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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