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« Whispers From the Void - When nothing is going on in tech, a few brief observations on the occasional news tidbits | Main | I Dream. No I Still Dream the iDream. Shouldn’t Apple Give Us the iCamera Now? »

August 23, 2017

Comments

E.Casais

"the Note 8 is a $1000 phone (minus a sawbuck or two)."

In Switzerland, the cheapest Galaxy Note 8 you can buy (64GB duos) is priced at CHF 998.90. Add 5% to get the price in USD, subtract 10% for the price in EUR.

My personal criterion is that a mobile phone (new, unlocked) should not cost more than CHF 350.

A more expensive one comes into play only for strict, no-alternative-available kind of reasons (e.g.: professional: it is the only device fit for purpose in a business setting; personal: you are disabled, and only that device supports some software / peripheral indispensable for coping). But, as is commonly said, to each its own, your mileage may vary, de gustibus non est disputandum.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Jim:

I do not know which numbers you go by, but by Apples own numbers:

Q1 2015 61.17
Q2 2015 47.53
Q3 2015 48.05
Q4 2015 74.78
Q1 2016 51.19
Q2 2016 40.4
Q3 2016 45.51
Q4 2016 78.29 <-- Here extra week, would've been around 75M without it
Q1 2017 50.76
Q2 2017 41.03

Last 2 Q1s iPhone declined YoY, Q2 was decline last year, slight incline this year. Q3 looks like increase, Q4 looks like decrease for now. This model does not account for the iPhone 6 generation, however...

James Glu

Hi Abdul, we shall see. What will be your stance when the new iPhone sales take off like a rocket in China?

Abdul Muis

@james.

The new iPhone will increase the sale of iPhone if the size is bigger. Chinese love big size phone. But for one year moving average in china, apple won't beat its own record.

If apple manage to sell more in one year moving average. Then, Im wrong, you were right. That iPhone brand is still powerfull in china... Please nite that I use 'still'. Because no brand is 100% powerful. 15 years ago, BB brand also powerfull. Their second hand product sold in africa, south east asia at a high price just like iphone today.

Abdul Muis

My guess is...
If apple increase the phone size and still use 16:9...
They will replace the tiny 4.7" with 5"-5.3"
And they replace the small 5.5" with 5.7"-6"
Just like every other phone brand size..

LongAAP1997

"Q4 2016 78.29 <-- Here extra week, would've been around 75M without it
Q1 2017 50.76"

Now there you did it again. You did not add the difference to Q1 results you just made the 3,29 million phones to disappeare.

Tester

Depends on whether Q1 was a week shorter. Maybe they should be added to the preceding Q3? In any case, when doing these things, it should be stated how many weeks were counted to a quarter - or do it right from the start and count the actual months, not weeks that may extend into other quarters.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Long:

I was specificly referring to Q4. Obviously Q1 would've gotten slightly higher than usual, yes, but then the X-mas quarter would've been down.

Or like Tester said, that extra week could've been Q3 as well. We will never know, all we know is, it was very convenient to arrive this year. :)

Abdul Muis

@long

The q1 still have normal weeks. Not shorter. So, PWE is right.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Piot: So it was planned well in advance. Fine, I concede there was no intentional trickery on Apples part.

I still maintain it was awfully convenient, since it saved their YoY constant growth meme though.

Abdul Muis

@long

For wall street, apple didn't do any mistake. Since wall Street didn't care about how many device apple sold. They only care for profit.

For the sake of this website, apple were conviniently cheating when reporting the number of the phone they sold but didn't say it for one more week.

James Glu

It's funny listening to you guys striving so hard to find an "Apple is failing" angle. It doesn't matter what quarter the sales for that week were accounted for. The sales happened. If you put them in 1 qtr then you take them away from the other.

Even Apple stopped reporting on open weekend sales....because the number becMe meaningless as it only measured how many Apple could make, not what demand was, That's true of the entire 4th qtr. Apple sells every phone they can make.

Pay attention to the rolling 4 qtr because Apple's annual release makes individual incomparable.

No matter how you slice it, the iPhone 7 sold well. It did not follow the decline of the 6s with further decline. And that's WITH a sharp decline in China.

Abdul Muis

@Piot

I think you need to read the news. It is samsung that have the exploding phone, not apple. Don't give apple credit for the mistake they don't do.

john F.

@ per
So it was planned well in advance. Fine, I concede there was no intentional trickery on Apples part.

vs

@Abdul
apple were conviniently cheating when reporting the number of the phone they sold but didn't say it for one more week.


Per wins 10 - 0 this boxing match by TKO.

Abdul, 10-Q are filled in advance, detailed and available to anyone upon request, remember I told you a few days ago, if you are too passionate about analyzing Apple instead of being objective to facts, statements you say are a not serious, I understand, you dislike the brand and products, and that's ok but you fail to see and understand some data that would help you say the right thing in proper way.

A correct statement as an example would be;

For me the iphone is overpriced and i don't want to overspend, now it is undeniable that it is the Nr 1 smart phone in the world
in the above 600 dollars category.

If you would say something like that, I would say, wow! what an objective person.


Abdul Muis

@tomifan

You mistakenly quote me for @fupiot

Abdul Muis

I think iSheep being too sensitive when someone point out Apple using extra week. And start making me a scapegoat because iSheep want to silence me.

Ohhh welll

FU piot

@piot

You forget the iphone bendgate? Antenagate?

E.Casais

Interestingly, the statements from Jim Glue and Tomifan about the updates to the Android OS on Nokia-branded phones are technically entirely compatible.

It just depends on how long Google will take to update the Pixels, and what "as soon as possible" practically implies...

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@John:

The iPhone in all it's incarnations is the second most *popular* smartphone on the planet (next to Samsungs Galaxy line), but I wouldn't say it's neccesarily the *best*.

So yes, it is a popular phone, right now. Yes it whips most ass in the premium segment.

Once the mid-range phones are good enough, the premium segment *will* shrink rapidly, however. And that spells trouble for the iPhone. It happened in every other market, cars, PCs... So why not in this market?

See, there might be a premium market segment of 300M-350M annual units once all growth is done and over with. And if Apple only sells to that premium market, the absolute highest cap is... 350M phones. Apple could realisticly own only 75%-80% of that market however, so more realisticly, Apples biggest theoretical cap is around 280M.

The chance of them hitting that cap however, is very improbable. It could happen sure, if everything flows perfectly together. But this is real life. It won't flow perfectly together.

But, that premium pool of 350M? It will slowly shrink as technology advances push the ASP down. Why would a rich customer pay $700 when $400 is enough to get him where he wants to go? This question will be harder and harder to answer. Some will still be persuaded, but it will be a tougher and tougher sell.

Then, item number 2: The iPhone is seen as a luxury goods. What do you think is the first thing people cut when the economy turns south? Luxury goods.

So, the iPhone will drop to maybe 180M a year in a bad economy. And that's a problem, because... Item number 3: Market forces. If the iPhone market share falls below a certain percentage, fewer and fewer will develop apps for it. And that will mean one of the biggest advantages to the iPhone - it's lush ecosystem - will slowly wither and fade. Now, this will be a gradual process, and every company must decide for themselves when a native app on the iOS makes sense. Historicly, in a two-horse race, the market share must be above 25%. Apple is clearly below this already, and is slowly declining in market share. Already it is dipping into 14% annual market share territory, and I can't see much changing the trend.

So, these three factors Apple have to overcome, constantly, and whenever they slip, it will be hard to recover ground. That is why I think iOS time has passed - unless Apple would open source it, but that would destroy Apples current business model (so will not happen). It's a losing battle.

Now the good news is this process will take decades, and Apple will have a long time to come up with something that drives iPhone growth again, pretty much how the iPhone drove Mac sales. But the iPhone as the driving engine to Apple profits and sales? That era is done with.

Abdul Muis

@PWE

I would like to add what you write....

The iLover here seems to forget/ignore the fact that the demographic of iPhone user has changed over the past few year. Apple 'easy to use' and 'just work' mantra attract older people who only need a handful of apps to connect their family. Such as What'sApp, Facebook, Instagram. This user of iPhone don't need the newest, latest iPhone. Any iPhone just do fine for them. Yes, there's still power user in iPhone camp... but the force have left Apple, and soon....

Meanwhile, android were attracting more and more power user. This is the market where the user do not affraid to shell out big money for the newest/latest expensive device.

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