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« Whispers From the Void - When nothing is going on in tech, a few brief observations on the occasional news tidbits | Main | I Dream. No I Still Dream the iDream. Shouldn’t Apple Give Us the iCamera Now? »

August 23, 2017


Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Also Counterpoint has jumped the gun on Huawei vs iPhone market race, they decided to grab the headlines (now?) and claim Huawei had already passed iPhone in Q2 market share. No other analyst found that to be the case. I put this to opportunism to try to be first to get the biggest headlines on that story that eventually will come to pass... As I've said, now the likely moment for it is next year this time. There is a chance, if Huawei had a strong surge in the late summer, in July-September Q3, they could pass the iPhone but now Apple gets its first sales of the next iPhone model at the end of this period, I don't think H will do it now.

Expect this news to happen a lot in the summer of 2018 when it is very likely going to happen, that Apple is (temporarily) passed. For full year 2018, I don't think Huawei will outsell Apple, but will come close, and for year 2019 - that is when we'll see a real close race assuming Huawei can keep up the pressure and won't fall out of the Top 3, which many recent Top 3 players have done.

Still.. Counterpoint was the first to rate Huawei into second place. I don't accept that as the likely truth, because no other analyst found it so. But that is the direction of the trend, eventually this is likely to happen yes.

(and now... the argument returns, what happens to Apple next... go ahead and enjoy)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Then inspired by the news, I went onto write a blog about Apple strategy - shift to high-priced iPhones possibly anticipating a parallel deliberate open shift to 'not pursuing unit sales growth/market share' and what that could mean long term to Apple...

Comments very welcome, enjoy

Tomi Ahonen :-)



If you delete 1 clown, remember clown name alias


Jim Glu
Jim Glue
James Glu
James Glue

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

Asymco blog reports on 8 Nov that the active user base of the Apple App Store is 418 Million during Q3. If 30% of smartphone users do not download apps (as per other surveys recently) then that 418M means total installed base of iPhone is at 597M currently. And I reported it as 593M at the end of June. Yeah. Someone tried to claim that there are a Billion iPhones in use a few quarters ago, remember? My numbers are da best in the industry and while I may be off by a percent. I am not off by 10% haha... and gosh, that is near-perfection AGAIN.

You're welcome.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Long James AAPL Glu

I bet US$10 that James Glu & LongAppl will keep saying 1 Billion iPhone user when you blink.


Not sure why anyone would say there are a billion iPhones in use, that is equivalent to every iPhone sold in the last FIVE years. Not going to happen. I suspect that someone has got confused by Apple's statement, earlier this year, that there ARE a billion iOS AND Mac devices out there. That would include iPads, iPod Touch, Apple TV etc etc.

However I would caution against trying to calculate the real iPhone installed base by using the 418 million figure because it comes direct from Apple's latest results call with analysts. "The September quarter was very strong for our retail and online stores, which welcomed 418 million visitors."

That's 418 million visitors in ONE quarter to Apple stores INCLUDING bricks and mortar RETAIL stores. No way to know how many were iPhone users. Probably most of them were buying very expensive dongles!

Jim Glue

The number I have been using is 650M by end of this year. I've forgot where I got that number...but I've never said a billion or billions. There was a story about a billion iOS devices sold. Apple reached that milestone early this year. But of course, many of us who buy Apple products have bought far more than just one since 2007.

Let's call it 500 Million active install base for iPhones. To know we can be sure it's at least that much.

That is an astounding figure. A half billion folks where 95% of them are going to buy another iPhone next. An annual run rate of around 230M units.

Let's say Apple was selling Android phones at the same price tier that it's selling iPhones. That's an amazing business. The 2nd best selling phone company for half a decade...with another 2 years or so secure in that spot before dropping to third (on an annualized basis).

230M sales all over the world. Not locked into the US. Not locked into China...with small excursions into India and Malaysia.

Imagine if Apple had 95% loyalty selling Android phones profitably (instead of iPhones).

Imagine if Apple had a half billion loyal Android customers.

Why...Apple would be a winner. Not "the" winner as that goes to Samsung.

But all this wringing of hands, whining and kvetching over whether Apple is a success or not because Apple makes it's own operating system.

The reason Apple can sell so many phones at such good margins is BECAUSE Apple isn't selling the same product everyone else is. It's a far better business strategy...if you are in the business of selling hardware. Nobody else has a hardware selling strategy that works anywhere close to Apple's.

Now...if your business is selling ads, then the Android strategy is far better. But even Google pays Apple big money, billions of dollars, to just be the default search choice on the iPhone.


It looks like Face ID is a joke!

10-year-old was able to unlock his mom’s iPhone using Face ID

Jim Glue

That doesn't make FaceID a joke...nor does the alleged spoofing done by mask. A joke is what Samsung delivered where a printout of your facebook profile photo can be used to unlock your phone.

TouchId was spoofed within weeks of it's release as well. Biometrics are not a fool proof security measure. Neither are pass codes. Neither are really long and complicated pass codes.

Seeing as you unlock your phone hundreds of times a day...having a very secure, quick and easy way is a big step up from no passcode and from long, cumbersome pass codes.

While Apple didn't mention mother to child, they said twins may not be distinguishable and young children aren't good candidates either.

Speaking of not fool proof....there are stories where children unlocked their sleeping parent's phones with TouchId.


@Jim Glue

>That doesn't make FaceID a joke...

Yes, it does!

>While Apple didn't mention mother to child, they said twins may not be distinguishable

Jim, have you read the article? A child, without printing any kind of mask, was able to open mom's iPhone! Everybody knows that a child is not able to open with his fingerprint the iPhone of his mom (because the fingerprints from point of view of TouchID are very different). BUT Face ID cannot make a distinction between mom's face and son's face which clearly indicates that the Face ID is a joke.

Jim Glue

We've already had stories of children unlocking their parent's phones with touchId while the parents were sleeping.

If you think biometrics have to be 100% fool proof to be just don't know much about the subject matter.

Lucrezia Donati

Well well well

Jim Glue starting to show his true face
the face of iSheep

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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