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« Tidbits from Smartphone Wars - Carl Zeiss, HTC, Sammy and look out for Huawei vs iPhone next two quarters. | Main | Whispers From the Void - When nothing is going on in tech, a few brief observations on the occasional news tidbits »

August 04, 2017

Comments

TomiCuckzacd

"writers perhaps you should stop following..."

Talking about yourself again Tomi? :-)

Peter F.

Please let us know your take on Nokia numbers and some background on Nummela.

Abdul Muis

Some great iPhone number

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/8/3/1017993-15017920402348707_origin.jpg

Abdul Muis

As usual, Tim Cook way to save money, means iUser were milked over the edge.....

Judge Allowing iPhone 4 Owners to Pursue Class Action Suit Against Apple
http://fortune.com/2017/07/31/iphone-4-lawsuit-apple-facetime/

Apple has failed in its bid to dismiss a lawsuit claiming it disabled the popular FaceTime video conferencing feature on older iPhones to force users to upgrade.

U.S. District Judge Lucy Koh ruled late on Friday that iPhone 4 and 4S users can pursue nationwide class action claims that Apple intentionally "broke" FaceTime to save money from routing calls through servers owned by Akamai Technologies.

Neither Apple nor lawyers for the plaintiffs immediately responded on Monday to requests for comment.

Apple began using Akamai's servers after losing a lawsuit in 2012 in which VirnetX Holding claimed that FaceTime technology infringed its patents.

Testimony from a 2016 retrial in that case showed that Apple paid Akamai $50 million in one six-month period.

The plaintiffs said Apple eventually created a cheaper alternative for its iOS 7 operating system, and in April 2014 disabled FaceTime on iOS 6 and earlier systems.

Koh said the plaintiffs alleged some measurable loss to their phones' value, and could try to show that Cupertino, California-based Apple's conduct constituted a trespass and violated state consumer protection laws.

The San Jose, California-based judge twice quoted from what the plaintiffs said was an Apple employee's internal email characterizing iOS 6 users as "basically screwed" because of the disabling of FaceTime.

She also rejected Apple's argument that the plaintiffs suffered no economic loss because FaceTime was a "free" service.

"FaceTime is a 'feature' of the iPhone and thus a component of the iPhone's cost," Koh said in a footnote. "Indeed, Apple (aapl) advertised FaceTime as 'one more thing that makes an iPhone an iPhone.'"

The plaintiffs are led by Christina Grace of Marin County, California, and Ken Potter of San Diego County, California, who both owned the iPhone 4. Akamai (akam) was not named as a defendant.

Abdul Muis

BTW,

samsung beat Apple sales in USA.

Jim Glue

For Apple to hold it's own in the 3rd qtr of the "no external change" third version of the iPhone 6...speaks to the reality that the iPhone is it's on orbit. Somewhat affected by other celestial bodies, but for the most part, it is it's own thing.

No new iPhone SE and yet no Apple still sold a bit more iPhones than last year. Huge attention focused on the iPhone Pro (or whatever it will be called) and still the iPhone 7/7+ pair increased sales in their third qtr of being on the market. The uptick in ASP continues unabated 10 years after the original iPhone.

Remember when Xiaomi came out with their rock bottom, no margin phones and were going to make their money on services? Apple is on a tear with it's service revenues on top of the margins they make on their premium priced hardware sales. That's quite the combo.

Apple's iPhone falls in share but it's user base is still growing. How is that? In this case it's because it's NEW markets buying cheap Android phones that is growing fastest. Not that they are growing all that fast anymore.

1.2 Billion iPhones in less than 10 years. 1.2 billion phones priced as much or more than the typical laptop.

iPad returned to growth after 3 years of falling sales. A turn around...or a one time bump from the significant price drop of "The New iPad". Important in a discussion of smartphones? Sure. The iPad is a glorified iPhone with a larger screen and minus the phone chip.

Apple Watch up 50%. I know, it's a numberless "Amazon-style" stat. Still, the floppa-watch continues to do well. "Compared to the iPhone"? Nothing does well compared to the iPhone. If you've bought an Apple Watch, is your next phone going to be an Android? No. Does any other phone maker make smart watches? Yes they do. Are they anywhere near as successful as the Apple Watch? Not even close. Not even adding all the other companies together.

We are less than two months away from the next set of iPhones. We only know one thing for sure....Apple is putting out an even MORE expensive version of the iPhone. And we know that Apple will be unable to make enough through the rest of the year and maybe well into the next.

There is no time left for bad news about the iPhone 7/7+ this year. The iPhone 6s down year did not signal an ongoing retreat. The iphone masses have not wised up and adopted for much cheaper good-enough phones. They iPhone 7 with it's "third year in a row" looks and "no reason to upgrade" internals did just fine. Why? Because it was an iPhone. That's all it needed to be.

Baron99

@Leebase
"Nothing does well compared to the iPhone."

But the iPhone is still just a copy of LG Prada, right?

Per "wertigon" Ekström

Interesting, my linear toy model predicted 41.75 M units...

Which seems to be right on the money (41.03 M units)!

The moving average market share was predficted to 14.25%, actual moving average is 14.20% (This assumes a global average of 363M this quarter). Market share is slowly declining.

Wayne Borean


@PWE,

Nice calculations.

It will be interesting to see if Huawei has the marketing skills to pull this off, and how exactly they do it.

And of course I'm waiting to see how well Nokia does. I like comeback stories!

John A

I waiting for the Nokia 8. But in general I think we will not see HMD Global in the top ten yet. Maybe in six months, when they got more models avaible.

But saw some TV Nokia commercial for Vodafone Turkey with Nokia 3, 5 and 6 recently. So it seems that the company going forward and re-building the Nokia brand in phones.

jumbli

Xiaomi topples Samsung in the budget segment in India:
https://www.newsbytesapp.com/timeline/Business/9310/52162/xiaomi-topples-samsung-as-smartphone-sales-keep-increasing

Nokia is so late in market it's almost already doomed:
https://www.themobileindian.com/news/is-it-too-late-for-nokia-already-18681

Thereiscalmbeforethestorm

"Sammy took its top spot, they are SAFELY the world's largest smartphone maker as they are."

You should not pet on that. Apple has just started it´s invation in India. Shammy will be the big looser in there. (They also have a problem when their CEO rightly rottens in jail.)

You should always remember that the second mouse gets the cheese and Apple is in this game for the long run and not for the short sprint as everybody else.

Abdul Muis

India market is very value oriented. Apple phone is only good for showing off, not value oriented.

So, I don't think Apple will sell well in India.

Wayneborean


Abdul,

Define 'well' from Apple's viewpoint. Since we don't know Apple's economics on an Indian iPhone, we really don't have the information we need to determine that.

Abdul Muis

Apple only have a couple of percent in India.

Jim Glue

Apple is never going to be the volume leader of all phones. Yes, there have been two quarters where Apple was tops but they were exceptions. The first time was when Nokia collapsed faster than Samsung could ramp up. The second was after the Samsung exploda-phone. Apple has such a strong yearly cycle that no one quarter lets you know how they are doing.

There are some interesting stories. When will Apple fall to #3 on a yearly basis. I'm not sure this will happen. Every time some Chinese company looks to be a threat...another Chinese company surges. It may happen some day. It won't matter to Apple any more than being second to Samsung has ever mattered or Nokia before them.

Already the iPhone 7 phones have removed "peak Apple" from the narrative. The first large screen iPhones did pull forward upgraders which made a fantastic year for the 6 followed by a down year for the 6s. We are back up modestly with the 7. So no iPad style years long decline for the iPhone.

What we shall see in the next quarter or two -- is the fate of the iPhone in China. Are sales down because folks are abandoning the iPhone for cheaper Android phones? It's a possibility, but nobody credible believes that. But -- if the new iPhone/iPhone Pro threesome being released soon don't sell awesomely in China then we will have confirmation that the long predicted "iPhone will be overcome by cheaper Android phones" is finally happening. Not marketshare wise...that ship sailed long ago. But will we finally see that iPhones are just too expensive such that people are actually TURNING AWAY from their iPhones for cheaper Android phones.

Apple certainly doesn't believe so. Apple is coming out with an even MORE expensive iPhone and didn't upgrade their iPhone SE this year. Now Apple isn't always right in predicting the market, but they have the best info of anybody on what is actually happening to iPhone sales. Look how long they let the iPad slide before finally coming out with a cheaper full size iPad. Will be watching to see if the return to growth for the iPad is really a return to growth or if it's a one time lift from the cheaper iPad offering.

How well did the Galaxy S8 really do? It's the only real competitor to the iPhone. It looks amazing. Great camera. Top specs. Beat Apple to the punch with it's infinity screen. I'm sure it sold well, but "iPhone well"? I'm waiting to hear beyond the "most pre orders ever" type hype rhetoric.

Nokia won't have made the top 10, but I'm interested in hearing what their sales were. More than 1 Million?

LongAAP1997

"India market is very value oriented. Apple phone is only good for showing off, not value oriented.
So, I don't think Apple will sell well in India."

I could bet that, that is exactly the same what you sayd about Apple going to China.

Jim Glue

I agree with Abdul that the iPhone will not sell as well in India as they do in China. There is a reason Apple targeted China before India. It will be interesting if Apple does any first party reselling of used iPhones in India. I know they were originally rebuffed in their attempts...but now that they are making iPhones in India perhaps that will change.

What is the same in India as in China, is that Apple will take the time to develop the market. The China success didn't happen over night.

What is interesting from a marketshare pov is the coming end of the easy growth of Android. When everyone who wants a smartphone already has one, and there are no new green markets to attack. Apple's share will be somewhere around 10% by that time. But from there, I think Apple can do with Android what Apple does with Windows. Continue to perform better. Mac has quarters where they grow sales and when they decline in sales. But for 10 years or so, Macs have performed better than the Windows PC market.

Abdul Muis

@long

Apple did 5x-8x better/more in china than in india. Apple sell more higher end model in china (bigger screen) compared to USA.

Unfortunately for apple,... Chinese customer were turning away from Apple. The reason is simple, Chinese love to compare specs. This is why samsung have Galaxy S8/S8+ with 6GB RAM in china, but not other market.

Abdul Muis

@JimGlu

Apple were lucky balmer did a costly mistake. With android it seems that android already surpassed apple, and apple will have a hard time going forward.

Perhaps... Going forward... Apple could still in 10%, but i doubt it will take the most premium market.

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