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« iPhone Q1 Results: Second Year in Row that January Quarter Sales are Down in Absolute Units vs same Quarter the Year Before | Main | Smartphone Q1 Stats including Installed Base (now with forked Android data also included) - hey, a new brand into Top 10 »

May 22, 2017

Comments

Abdul Muis

Tomi,

Google didn't say that Android reach 2 Billion user. Google say it **PASSED** 2 billion user. So, it perhaps 2.1 billion, or 2.2 billion, or maybe 2.6 billion.


Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Abdul

Good point but as the previous announcement was 400 million less, we can be pretty sure they 'just' passed it and have now about 2.01B or 2.02B users, not 2.1B or 2.2B haha..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

chithanh

Very nice analysis.

About the "official Android" vs. AOSP ratio in tablets we might not have to guess.

According to Strategy Analytics, Q4 2016 tablet market was 6.7% Amazon and 28.5% white-box manufacturers, probably a large part of them Chinese AOSP. So if Strategy Analytics does not severely miscount white-box tablet sales, that would put the upper limit of AOSP tablet share at around 35% and the real number would be somewhat lower.

https://www.strategyanalytics.com/strategy-analytics/news/strategy-analytics-press-releases/strategy-analytics-press-release/2017/02/02/tablet-market-falls-9-in-q4-2016-with-apple-samsung-down-double-digits

ReadandLearn

So the fragmendroid situtation is even worse than imagined. This is a nightmare for the developers.

"Another idea Google presented (Google iO17) involved taking a key competitive advantage tied to its own Android platform and giving it away to others. Google Assistant debuted last year as the search giant's intelligent, conversational alternative to Siri, initially exclusive to Pixel phones and integrated into its Allo messing app and Google Home appliance.

It has since also made the feature available to other premium Androids (running Android Marshmallow or Nougat), and now it's available on iOS. Can Apple learn something here?

Probably not. Google appeared to overestimate the potential of "premium Android" as a platform. Globally, the company announced at IO17 that only 100 million Android devices (!!) can currently run its Assistant, giving it an installed base smaller than the Macintosh. Compared to the "2 billion active users" Android claims, that's a very small population.Apple's installed base of premium iOS hardware is around NINE times as large as the fraction of Android users who have higher-end hardware running a fairly up-to-date version of Android

At the beginning of 2016, Apple noted an installed base of "over 1 billion active devices." Most of those are iOS (there's an estimated 100-150 million Macs and 400 million iPads, suggesting about half a billion iPhones in active use), and the overwhelming majority of those are running Apple's latest iOS 10."

appleinsider.com/articles/17/05/20/ios-11-android-o-what-apple-can-learn-from-googles-io17

developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html

Cesar

Are you including the Amazon Fire devices on AOSP?

Tester

@ReadandBecomeStupid:

"So the fragmendroid situtation is even worse than imagined. This is a nightmare for the developers."

Admit it. Apple pays you to post this nonsense.

Actually, no, it isn't.
China is its own market, and so is India, and since most of the non-Google Androids are in these two markets it is really of no concern. Whoever wants to be present there needs to do a special version for the local language regardless of distributor.

But regardless of that: Smartphone app development is going down the drain anyway, as the quality of HTML5 support improves, there's increasingly less incentive to develop apps in the first place.

Most smartphone apps out there are nothing more than glorified website substitutes anyway. Doing this natively on PCs is not the norm and a few years down the line it also won't be the norm on smartphones.

ReadandLearn

"Actually, no, it isn't."

Yes it is.

https://opensignal.com/reports/fragmentation.php

"Admit it. Apple pays you to post"

Nope. Only nice amount of dividends.

Who pays you?

Good that you too support HTML5. So did Steve Jobs and so does Apple.

The App development is accelerating not decenting. There is more and more developers for the iOS this year than last year. Apple needed to get bigger venue for the WWDC17 just because of the bigger demand. Fact also is that there is lots more money made with the apps. How do we know this? Well Apple makes every year more revenue from the apps. So stop being silly. We know that you have your own agenda that do not rely on facts.

ReadandLearn

"Actually, no, it isn't."

Yes it is.

"Android's software deployment pace is slipping backwards. Two years ago at Google I/O 2015, less than a tenth (9.7 percent, according to Google) of Android's active installed base had upgraded to Android 5.0 Lollipop, which had been introduced the previous year (around the time of iOS 8).

Another 39.8 percent were using 2013's Android 4.4 KitKat, then two years old (comparable to iOS 7), and 39.2 percent were still on some version of Jelly Bean, which dated back to 2012 (like iOS 6). Another eleven percent were stuck using software that was from 2011 or older. Those numbers were so dismal that it looked like Google could only improve on them.

It didn't. Instead, a year later it could only report that 7.5 percent of its active base on Google Play was running its year old Android 6 Marshmallow (a 20 percent decrease in deployment success).

Further, only 35.6 percent were now running a two year old Android (a 10 percent regression) and 32.5 percent were running a three year old Android (17 percent worse). The remaining 24.4 percent were using software four or more years old. That was a 120 percent increase in the number of users running extremely old Android software (at the time on the level of iOS 6 or older)..."

appleinsider.com/articles/17/05/17/google-io17-android-deployment-rate-continues-to-slip-backward

Per "wertigon" Ekström

Apple is really paying very little attention to html 5 these days. So that is another way apple might face problems.

The more Apple refuse to play ball with the rest of the world, the more it will bite them in the ass later...

Tester

Apple obviously doesn't want HTML5 and web apps to succeed because it'd undermine their app store.

Hands up who is surprised here. I am not and this is precisely what I expected from a company that tries to impose their agenda on everything they touch.

What I see here is not fumbling around but deliberate sabotage.

chithanh

@ReadandLearn
> So the fragmendroid situtation is even worse than imagined. This is a nightmare for the developers.

It is quite manageable actually.

> Nope. Only nice amount of dividends.

So you are pumping Apple stock.

Lullz

Offline capable web apps are harder to manage for the end user. It's not just a single click to install them and another single click to uninstall. Also if the user clears the browser from all data, the installed web apps are also cleared.

Catriona

Just remember that Tomi predicted Hillary would win in a Reaganesque landslide. How did that turn out? The iPhone just turned 10 and Tomi didn't even acknowledge it. The single most important mobile device of all time deserves lots of attention right now.

Abdul Muis

@catriona

You need to differentiate the Job's iPhone and Cook's iPhone.

Cook's iPhone is a good device that build using the cheapest possible way. Kind of mercedes minus the luxury / expensive material.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Catriona

Hey, EVERY forecaster in EVERY industry makes mistakes. I am one of the rare ones who draws attention to every failed forecast as the forecasted issue comes to be. And I took clear ownership of the failed Hillary forecast - even as she did win more votes in that election. That type of comment - where I have published a whole blog article about my failed forecast - for you to make a point about it here, is pretty petty.

But if you're nitpicking on one Election 2016 related forecast that I got wrong (landslide, bearing in mind Hillary got more votes by a considerable 3 million votes) - will you be fair to point out how many 2016 forecasts I got right - I was among the first to forecast that Hillary would be the Democratic nominee (two years before election day), I was THE first to forecast Trump could win his nomination (mathematically possible) and among the first to forecast Trump would actually win the nomination. I predicted the outcomes of the conventions and the victors of each of the TV debates. And on election day, I had the correct forecast in terms of which candidate won more votes - but I was wrong on the SCALE of the victory (slim vs landslide). I trust Catriona you will be fair and honest with us, and admit, most of my forecasts relating to election cycle 2016 were correct while (sadly for me and happily for you) the final election result forecast was obviously wrong.

And again - every single forecaster makes errors in EVERY INDUSTRY. Including me long long before the Hillary forecast and I will continue to make errors. There is no such thing as professional forecaster who is always correct. That is impossible. But I am rare among professional forecasters to point out every time I turned out wrong.

But as to the iPhone, I was the first person who predicted the iPhone would transform not only the phone industry but OTHER industries like media, advertising and the PC industry. Said so in 2007. Forecasted it before a single unit of the iPhone was even sold. If you want to somehow draw from the failed Hillary forecast to any iPhone forecasts then YOU are drawing the wrong analogy. I have a near-perfect record of iPhone forecasts.

I was the first to forecast iPhone's regional sales pattern (correctly). I forecasted essentially every major evolution aspect of the iPhone (correctly) including stuff where I was a very tiny minority or alone, like MMS support and inward-facing 'selfie' camera for example. I was correct while avoiding stuff many of my peers thought Apple would do (correctly).

Far more importantly, I forecasted iPhone's market share peak (correctly) and the overall sales peak (correctly). There were times I was off in some of my forecasts by the timing but I never issued a forecast where I was wrong - such as I often asked Apple to give us a physical QWERTY slider/folder keyboard or a proper optical zoom camera - but I always made it clear, that while I wished those, I did not forecast those, and in fact, I forecasted Apple would NOT do those (correctly).

I forecasted accurately who are (Nokia, Samsung) and who are NOT (Blackberry) the main rivals to the iPhone. I forecasted accurately the needs of major changes to the product line such as large 'phablet' screen sizes - again, I was literally the first to do so and many iSheep on this blog argued forever how that was a stupid idea.

I forecasted the relevance of Apple's ancilliary products pretty well - the tablet side did better than I forecasted but even then, I was one of the few who said tablets and iPads would not overtake smartphones while many pundits then felt the tablet was the next big thing (it wasn't, I was more correct than most while Apple did better with the iPad than I originally forecasted). And the Apple Watch haha, you saw that, you were already here by then on the blog.

So in terms of Hillary forecasts and Apple - there is NOBODY on the planet who has gotten iPhone forecasts as good as me. Yeah, you're welcome. As to Apple's current 'plight' I was correct in predicting a slow slide path down the market share (as is now ongoing) heading towards 10% market share (give or take a point). Down from peak 21% to 15% now. NOBODY else said that when Apple was growing and hitting 21%. Nobody. You're welcome.

As to the 'unknown unknowns' to borrow from Donald Rumsfeld - who explained the Nokia collapse and how that would or would not help APPLE (and where, what regions?). NOBODY ELSE did that when Nokia announced its stunning surprise partnership with Microsoft. Not that I predicted correctly the extent of the largest collapse in any industry in corporate economic history of humankind (Nokia collapse, which only I did at the time) but I also indicated that Apple would pick up SOME of the spoils (correct, nobody else said this at the time) but that it would be Samsung (Apple's main rival) who would pick up MORE of the spoils (again.. nobody else said this, and yes, obviously I was 100% correct).

NOBODY else published that type of analysis in early 2011. NOBODY. And that was Apple iPhone's last hurrah, and it was a 'windfall' gain, meaning iPhone's organic growth had already stalled before Nokia fell, and obviously Apple's market share has now returned to the level if was prior to Nokia falling (ie 15%) from which it is now in slow decline. So even if there is a totally-unforseen change in the smartphone market - THIS BLOG and this expert has given the best forecasts about your favorite brand - better than ANY iSheep blogs you read. Isn't this so Catriona? This blog is BY FAR the most accurate when it comes to the major issues that impact the iPhone. From 2007 to 2017. Every single year, the best blog about iPhone's market performance related forecasts. Every. Single. Year. I trust Catriona you are honest enough to admit that, since you felt the need to bring up the Hillary forecast for which I already wrote a clear 'mea culpa' blog immediately upon the election result.

On the issue, is there cause to celebrate iPhone turning 10? Sure there is. Do you think this industry's unofficial historian might write about it? This you may want to hold your breath for, I might just do that. Especially as my ORIGINAL forecasts about the iPhone turned out darned good as well.

An article like that is not time-sensitive to exactly a day, where news like the UAE issuing the world's first passports to mobile is far more time-sensitive. Everybody knows this is the 10 year anniversary for the iPhone (that is not 'news'). So when I write my story, I will do it with care and the attention it deserves. It does not need to hit a particular exact date. And not publishing it yet, does not mean I would not want to celebrate that moment.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

b

@Tomi

What is your opinion on Google Home and Amazon Echo (and Homepod) type of devices and especially that they might allow in the near future voice calls? It looks to me like going back a little to phone land lines. Will be a fad or some niche for voice calls? Should be lumped into mobile devices?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi b

Haha yeah, it is isn't it? The fixed landline phone is having a kind of rebirth. I hadn't thought of it from that angle, pretty funny actually.

As an evolution of the home, something like the voice-assistants do make a lot of sense for the 'connected home' and allow us to talk to our appliances and for various home-related services (including shopping) to be handled as conveniently as possible. Here the convenience of a mobile phone in our pocket is not always the best solution, so a 'central' home kind of universal interface makes plenty of sense. A bit like the ship's computer on Star Trek Enterprise that you could just talk to at any point in the ship, asking the computer to do something for you without walking to some touch-screen panel. (Probably some of the thinking into these solutions came as inspired by Star Trek Next Gen haha)

As to fad or real - I think very real. Most who get such a device will find plenty of use for it and an increasing utility out of it. The device has a good long life span (likely) similar to say TVs and soon they're about as common in homes as refrigerators, microwave ovens and vacuum cleaners haha..

Should they be lumped with mobile devices? It depends, some can/will be actually connected via the cellular network (hence counted as stationary 'mobile' devices like say a laptop with 3G/4G cellular modem, that only sits on the desk at home and is never moved out of the home). Many will connect via WiFi or possibly data cable - usually to a router on broadband but could also be WiFi router on cellular. If the end-connectivity is via WiFi then the actual device is 'not mobile' by my definition but in either case, as its not going to be moved about - it is a bit strange to call them 'mobile' devices haha. I think many IoT (Internet of Things) devices will fall into this category in the near future, where technically they connect via cellular but are built in and very stationary, so not 'mobile' as in portable/movable.

I have started to separate the machine connections from human connections in my mobile stats and we will increasingly see this dimension. It will mean 'inflated' ie large mobile user or subscriber numbers that will not be in relationship to humans alive (due to the IoT device universe often connecting also via cellular).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

b

@Tomi

I guess that the next few years the voice-assistant will be the hook which will draw people to such devices. As soon as these devices will be able to make/receive voice calls (via Skype, Wifi, SIM cards, etc.) to/from phone numbers will take off.
At least the old people (that do not have good vision anymore) will be drawn to this kind of devices for making/receiving phone calls and sending/receiving SMS/text messages (and get weather report, listen to radio, e.g. http://dailycaring.com/amazon-echo-for-dementia-technology-for-seniors/ )

Tester

Strange.

The people I talked to were just scoffing about the whole notion. I guess it requires a special mindset to buy into the whole idea and I cannot find that anywhere in regular people. That, btw, applies to IoT in general.

@b:

"At least the old people (that do not have good vision anymore) will be drawn to this kind of devices for making/receiving phone calls and sending/receiving SMS/text messages"

I've yet to see a single person above 60 who may be interested. Most are just scared about this newfangled tech they do not understand.

Well, we'll see. So far only some tech geeks seem to be sold on this stuff. As long as that stays it won't take off. It will only expand into the general public if there's some bona-fide advantages to be had and so far not much that has been said qualifies.

Winter

@Tester (and others)
I think you misunderstand the aim of these "units". They bring AI to the home. Apple and the rest want to become knowledge pedlers, instead of mere information libraries. They seem to see the best avenue to this goal is to set up an interlocutor or dialogue partner in the home.

The (distant) idea would be to have an AI conversation partner to talk to at home that can ultimately serve butler tasks.

We are far from that point, yet.

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  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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