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« We Can Now Estimate Global Android Forked Installed Base ie AOSP Devices vs 'full Google' Android | Main | Next Stage for Mobile and Identity? Yes UAE just deployed passport onto smartphones, first in use Dubai Terminal 3 and Emirates airline »

May 25, 2017

Comments

wolf

Thanks for the numbers. Do you also have an estimate of the Nokia unit sales for Q1 2017?

ReadandLearn

And you should take this in to the considaration...

appleinsider.com/articles/17/05/17/google-io17-android-deployment-rate-continues-to-slip-backward

"If Android were actually delivering modern phones at lower prices, new users would be cost effectively gaining access to the latest Nougat. They're clearly not

Four years ago, things looked rough for Android because "only" 33 percent of Google Play users were on Google's latest version of Android. Today Google's ability to keep its platform modern, patched and updated has deteriorated even more dramatically. How is that even possible?"

paul

Obviously, the next big fight will be between pure-Android vs forked-Android. That will be fun to watch.

obarthelemy

@readandlearn You're either trolling or grossly misinformed. Android's way to solve the update issue is to move ever more stuff out of the OS.
On iOS, even an app like iClip requires an OS update.
On Android, even core OS features like WebView, Dialer, Pay, Health, Home and security updates don't.

Using OS version as an indicator of whether phones are up to date is meaningless and, at best, utterly misinformed.

John A

As for Sony I think their CEO told that they will remain in the phone business. If they pull out it will be to hard to make a comeback later. They must be in the space with all new IOT stuff that are coming. And they also sell camera sensors to other brands etc...

For Nokia I think its to early since they will not be globaly until the end of june. So for some statistics there we must wait for some more months.

Rumours says T-Mobile will making own phones in the US market (probably made by TCL)
And if the specs/price is great it might affect Samsung and iPhone/Apple duapoly in USA. So the smartphone wars are not over, seems a lot of things will happend during this year.

ReadandLearn

"Google has tried several programs to get the manufacturer's to provide better support. And manufacturer's all say they will, but none of them do."

Apple really is in the unique position.
They have their own processors, operating system, programming language, compilers, design of the hardware and software, distribution of the software and hardware, they can choose their component suppliers (everybody dreams about being in the Apple supply chain), they have their own customer support and they do the repairs. It is absolutely complete end to end chain. They do not need to wait anybody or rely on outsiders. This is what separates Apple from the rest of the group. There is no other company who can do this. This is also the reason why you can not compare any of the other companies and their fates to Apples. They dont have the total control of their testeny as the Apple does. If Apple makes a mistake they can make the correction really fast and for others that is a really scary thing.

Good story is with the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S. The camera with the iPhone 4 was good but Apple was not happy about the speed of it. It was slow to be ready. So what did they do? They redesigned the ISP to work much much faster. That was a suprise move that nobody saw comming and something that everybody had to react to. Small detail, but this tells how fast Apple can correct things and it is much faster than anybody in the business, because the development is done under the same roof. (One was of course the transition to 64-bit.)

Gul Dukat

@ReadandLearn

"(everybody dreams about being in the Apple supply chain)"

No = not
Apple = pay little = cheap.
Apple = big quantity = bad term = small money = small profit
Android = Better
Android = big quantity = big profit = better term

Abdul Muis

@paul

"Obviously, the next big fight will be between pure-Android vs forked-Android. That will be fun to watch."

It's a win-win battle for Android.


virgil

Turns out, analysts were right, there IS a third big OS player in the mobile space!

(they were also wrong, in that the third player is iOS, not Windows. With they second being AOSP).

Lullz

@Abdul Muis

What if there will be several incompatible Android forks in the future? If Nokia decides to continue with the Meltemi-Android project, that might actually happen at some point.

chithanh

While they are member of the OHA, Nokia can only release code from Android on devices that pass official Android compatibility testing. So this seems very unlikely, unless Nokia decides to reimplement everything from scratch without even a line of AOSP code.

Huber

@Wayne: AOSP is based on GNU/LINUX and hence falls under the GPL (GNU Public License). Hence Google cannot nake it closed source.

What Google _CAN_ do is to start from scratch and create a Play Services-compatible OS which has its own license, though. And Google is doing exactly this, it is called "Project Fuchsia". See here: https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2017/05/googles-fuchsia-smartphone-os-dumps-linux-has-a-wild-new-ui/

AOSP also _IS_ the full OS, you can use it without the PlayStore and the other Google Services by simply using another App Store like Amazon or F-Driod.

The problem is only that you don't have Google Maps, GMail, Google Drive and all the other stuff which isn't part of AOSP. Competing with this is very hard for everybody, just take the failure of the Amazon smartphone as an example. Of course it's not impossible, so let's see what the future brings.

Huber

Regarding the alleged "fragmentation":

First of all, it's not like Android would have problems regarding compatibility between different versions, so customers are hardly affected. Except regarding security patches, of course.

But here also the carriers are to blame, which often don't roll out security patches for older phones despite getting an update from the OEM. This behaviour does not exactly encourage OEMs to provide updates either. As long as customers don't vote with their wallets, nothing will change.

Secondly, differences between different devices was an Android feature a few years ago. Lots of features were introduced by OEMs first and then a few years later by Google. Like tethering, dual windows, quick settings etc.

Android 7.X includes all of this natively, so there is less need for OEM-modified Android versions from the average customer's point of view now. But Android only became the dominant smartphone OS by allowing OEMs to differentiate their Android versions, so it's difficult to get the genie back into teh bottle now.

zlutor

if we knew HMD numbers...

what number would be quite OK? What would be magnificient?
what do you guess?

what to expect for Q3?

Huber

@Wayne: "To this day, brand NEW phones are still being sold with 4yr and older versions of Android."

Show me a single Android device which was released in 2017 and ships with a 4 year old Android version. I'm waiting...

Lullz

@Huber

He said selling new phones. Not releasing new phones.

E.Casais

The issue of "fragmentation", and what Wayne Brady describes are nothing new at all.

Developers faced the same difficulty with Java ME, and have been tackling the same problem with the mobile (and non-mobile) Web and browser fragmentation for ever. And before that, the issue popped up when developing software supporting the GUI of Unix, Windows and Mac.

Fragmentation will _always_ be with us. It is unavoidable when developing _universal_ services, i.e. those that do not just work on the recent version of one OS from one manufacturer offering a limited device selection with one form factor in one price category.

No, it is not easy, but that's life. Anyway, in the past two decades, techniques have been developed to cope with all that, and professionals rely upon them all the time. Mind the term "cope" -- not "solve".

ReadandLearn

'The iPhone created Android"

It was only completed when Nokias then CEO eFlop announced that something is burning and some company with a bad history will fix it.

That panicked everybody in the industry because they did not have the response for iPhone. Google did because the mole had seen one. The mole was member of the board at Apple from Google. Google did unfortunately understand how iPhone really works.

ReadandLearn

" Google did unfortunately understand how iPhone really works"

Shit. Did unfortunatelu not understand how iPhone really works and what the hell is Apple (Tim Cook) going to do with it.

Gul Dukat

Rewrote history?
Bad boy, bad boy

Per "wertigon" Ekström

Ok, as many of you already know, I keep track of Apple vs rest of world global average and also keep around a linear toy model for predictions. Why Apple vs rest? Because it is Android vs Rest now, so this is the only interesting border left to check.

Before Q1 results were known, predictions looked like this:

Quarter...Apple...World...Avg. Marketshare
Q1........51.7M...346.1M..14.47 %
Q2........42.5M...359.3M..14.44 %
Q3........47.4M...388.9M..14.39 %
Q4........78.0M...460.7M..14.13 %
Total....219.6M..1560.0M

Now that results are in, we get the new results as well as the new, revised predictions:

Quarter...Apple...World...Avg. Marketshare
Q1........50.8M...350.4M..14.36 %
Q2........41.8M...363.7M..14.25 %
Q3........46.6M...393.7M..14.10 %
Q4........76.6M...466.4M..13.70 %
Total....215.7M..1574.2M

So, Apple fared slightly worse than predicted, while Android did better than predicted. I'll keep doing these over the entire year, revising as new data comes in. Of course, if iPhone 8 becomes a new iPhone 6 moment, then Apple will once again regain market share, but right now it looks like they will slowly slide downward.

ReadandLearn

@WB

When Steve introduced the iPhone to the World I had the top of the line Nokia telephone in my pocket. When I was watching and listening in to his introduction around half way of that I wanted ti smash my Nokia phone in to the wall. I realized that Nokia had several years peed in to my cerials. My first mobile phone was Mobira Cityman (bought with my own money. Not a compamy phone) and after that I had 27 different Nokia phones (yes a have lost so many phones and I also want the absolutely latest one. Now waiting for the iPhone 8).
My biggest complaint with the Nokias was that you had stupid things like folders for recieved, send and draft messages. Steve showed how it should be. I was furious to engineers of the Nokia because the fix was so gods damn easy. I never bought Nokia phone again and never after that recommended one to anybody. I still have my first iPhone 3G. It still works.

What really bugs me is that Nokia could have done it with all their resources before Apple. Instead they just decided to sit with their thump in the ass. Plus they chose Microsoft ass their partner.

Now when Nokia has agreed to Apples terms of the patent licensing I really hope that Nokia concentrates and becomes a good partner with the Apple. If Nokia does that they can really profit out of thay. Apple is a good company and a partner, but if you back stab them the Tim Cook will return the dagger.

ReadandLearn

Sorry. I use 4 different languages daily and always forget to turn the English autocorrection on. So there is so many miss spillings in my text. I am so lazy sometimes.

Bree Van De Kamp

@Per "wertigon" Ekström

My prediction of iPhone Q4 2017.

If new iPhone size is 4.7" & 5.5" and big bezel, 60Million tops.
If new iPhone size is 4", 4.7" & 5.5" and big bezel, 62Million tops.

If new iPhone size is bigger.
5"/5.2" 5.7"/5.9" and big bezel, 72Million tops,
4.2"/4.5", 5"/5.2" 5.7"/5.9" and big bezel, 80Million tops,

If new iPhone same size, but smaller size
4.7" & 5.5" and small bezel, 68Million tops.
4", 4.7" & 5.5" and small bezel, 70Million tops.

If new iPhone size is bigger.
5"/5.2" 5.7"/5.9" and small bezel, 75Million tops,
4.2"/4.5", 5"/5.2" 5.7"/5.9" and small bezel, 85Million tops,

Abdul Muis


T-mo announce DIGITS....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaoS3TFqDnI

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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