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March 16, 2017


Wayne Brady

34% of the world's most valuable markets? Not bad at all. Particularly when you realize that Spain and Italy are in "the rich" countries :)

Should be interesting to see what comes this year for the iPhone. While I still believe that the iPhone's share of total mobile phone market is what you can expect it's final "resting place" to be for it's share of the smartphone market....this year portends well for the Fruit Phone.

We should see the iPhone SE 2 come out. Will Apple keep the SE in the lineup but drop the price $100? A $299 brand new price point could move the needle some.

Then you have the "super cycle" coming up. A new revamped iPhone being released alongside a pent up "these folks are going to upgrade some day, and they are buying iPhones again" demand. We saw what can happen when the iPhone 6 was released. In that case the super cycle was tied to the first large screen iPhones and it pulled sales in from "next year's" follow on. So you have all those who bought the 6, sat out the the 6s and were not tempted by the "same looking" 7. They didn't abandon Apple, they merely postponed.



Sounds to me like Top Gear (a show I never watch) discussing potential sales of new Mercedes models (a brand I never drive).


What I find far more interesting about these numbers is not Android vs. iOS, but the fact that in nearly every significant market the increase in market share came nearly exclusively from Windows Phone finally tanking.


"... in nearly every significant market the increase in market share came nearly exclusively from Windows Phone finally tanking."

Please elaborate, I must be missing something.

Wayne Brady

Given the reported "switcher rate", I believer iOS is still taking share from Android at the high end, Android is mopping up the cheap WP user base

Wayne Brady

Alright, this was the closest recent post to what I wish to discuss -- today's Apple announcements.

Mind you, there was no Apple event. A new iPad and new color for iPhone, some new watch bands, and memory upgrades to the iPad Mini.

What this is, is a rare (or at least a lot less common than the competition) price cut from Apple. Apple picks a price they feel a product "should cost" and then iterates without changing that cost for a good number of years (usually, the original iPhone saw a price cut shortly after release).

iPad sales have been going down for a couple years...and I think Apple has finally concluded the product is no longer "properly priced".

Apple also significantly updated the memory in the iPad mini 4 and the iPhone SE without changing price. Which, is a price drop as well.

You can look at this as "Apple was forced to cut prices" (which they were). You can also look at this as evidence that Apple is willing to reprice a product when they feel they need to. They won't FOREVER keep an product price the market disagree's with.

Wayne Brady

Looks like Sammy and Apple are in line for a great year. I think the Galaxy S 8 has blown every other premium Android handset off the table. Whither Google Pixel? The iPhone 7/7+ pair seem to be selling above last year's pair and the expectations for sales of the next iPhone(s) are off the charts.

Question for me is - will Sammy's new phone gain back marketshare in the premium segment. I'm thinking it will in the short term as it's up against the slow months for the iPhone and there is pent-up Note 7 demand. Full year? I'm wondering if the move to cheaper, mid-range, good enough Android phones will limit even this excellent device.

I see no slowing down in Apple's premium segment. I expect very little defections to the Galaxy S8, but plenty of "I dumped the iPhone for the S8" articles to be written. Click-bait is as Click-bait does. Apple's global market share will continue it's decline as the low end will grow faster. But I expect another solid 230M+ year for the iPhone.

Wayne Brady

Any thoughts on the latest speed demon Android phones NOT surpassing last year's iPhone? Mind you, I'm not one to harp on one feature as the "end all, be all" and just because a phone is "second fastest" doesn't make it "slow".

It's just interesting that more cores, higher mhz was all the latest Android phones needed to do to have a spring win over the previous fall iPhone. Well, that and a bigger battery.

Only a few photo processing apps I use ever feel "I wish this ran faster" to me. As fast as my iPhone 7+ is, my iPhone 4s never felt slow. So, again, I'm not trying to make a "Android sux, iPhone triumphs" type post. I'm just marveling at Apple's ability to "go it alone" and keep it's edge in silicon.

The Galaxy S8 is all about that gorgeous infinity screen. But my "second best" iPhone screens (by some measures) have been beautiful in their own right. We will see if Samsung's marquee feature is "the one" that will drive sales.

Interestingly, they didn't improve their camera hardware AT ALL. To me that's a much bigger deal than the iPhone 7 keeping the same housing. Sure, Sammy improved the software some....but to miss an entire year's camera improvement? Again - not that it's now a bad camera. It was a great camera last year, it's not dog food this year.

I see the market as bifurcated into areas much broader than this or that marquee feature. There are some switchers as always....but I think, for the most part, Android users will buy from among the Android offers and iPhone users will only look at the iPhone options.


Tomi, I remember you had made a prediction about price developments of Android smartphones. I saw a new entry:

Alcatel Pixi 4 (4) for 49,95 euro.

Specs seem better than iPhone 3:
Android 6
4 inch screen
4 GB memmory
0.5 GB RAM
Two cameras with some kind of flash
2MP camera
Two SIM card slots

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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