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« Deloitte Counted 120 Million Used Smartphones Were Sold in 2016 (growth of 50% vs 2015) - Understanding the second-hand handset market | Main | Full Year 2016 Smartphone Market Top 10 Numbers, and OS platforms and Global Installed Base, all here. Oh, and Q4 market data as well »

February 01, 2017

Comments

Obarthelemy

Isn't more than 100% of this quarter's progress explained by the fact that this year's quarter has an extra week compared to last year's ?

JohnC

"If the anomaly years 2011 and 2012 are removed, the rest of the past 8 years have been incredibly stable"

"But its glory days seem to be over."

May be two different authors wrote this...

Wayne Brady

Interesting point - none of Apple's other businesses hold a candle to the iPhone. Then again, no other company has a product that will hold a candle to the iPhone. Which would you rather be, the company that HAS the product that can't be topped....or the company that doesn't?

The premium only iPhone was NEVER going to win the unit marketshare race. But I think it's clear (just as you have said), that Apple will go on just fine.

And while there is nothing impressive when viewed from the global smartphone market share as you've shown...

Apple has continued to take share of the global MOBILE PHONE market. Apple passed the 10% mark.

Apple has continued to grow it's install base. 650M or so and growing. 650,000,000

Apple gets 64% of it's sales outside the US. There has never been a market Apple didn't successfully penetrate that wasn't limited by the price of the iPhone.

Not only did Apple START with a loyal fan base, the iPhone continues to GROW that extremely loyal fan base.

Apple grew the ASP AGAIN. It's $695 even with the $399 iPhone SE on the market. Even with the elimination of subsidies in the American market.

15% marketshare, is that so bad when the competition's ASP is less than 1/3rd the price?

Pretty good performance.

RickO

2017 will be an interesting year in smartphones.
Will Huawei,Oppo and Vivo sustain market growth or end up just float around in the middle of the pack. Will Iphones hit the wall briefly this year and then scream ahead with the iPhone 8. Think back 5 years and compare the rapid advance in technology / design improvements in smartphones since then - the range of models available today in nearly all price points is amazing. Will there be any threats from up and coming brands in the bottom 5 to shake up the top 5 or are Samsung / iPhone really safe in the top 2 positions - probably need to wait for 2018/2020 to see a trend. In the rush for market share, will there be more manufacturers that will collapse and disappear as happened in 2016 or will any new players emerge, or any consolidations happen. 2017 will, if nothing else, be an eventful year.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Strategy Analytics and IDC have both given their last Q4 reports for the total market sizes, so we have our final numbers. Averaging the two give us 432.3 M for the Q4 sales number and for full year 2016 the total comes out at 1,479 M (1.48B) which is 3% growth over year 2015. I'll be doing my Top 10 analysis based on those numbers and make it thus official for us.

The last 2 quarters (Q3 & Q4) showed an average 12 month moving average growth rate of 6.5% (after the first 2 quarters of the year saw our first industry-wide recession). If year 2017 grows at this recent history rate ie 6.5% we would aim for full year 2018 unit sales levels of about 1,575 M (round that off to 1.6B) which looks to me like a very reasonable number for those among our readers who need the new target for planning numbers for this year. So even as our industry no longer grows at rate of double digits, where the world GDP is growing roughly at 3% rate, the smartphone market still grows at twice that speed in terms of its units sold per year. Not bad :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Brady

Thanks again for the numbers Tomi

Per "wertigon" Ekström

Ok, so for Apple market share tracking, that's 14.55 % market share for Apple in 2016 (moving average), Tomi will release the other numbers soon-ish I expect. :)

Interestingly, Apple moving average market share has been going down the entire year.

As for 2017, my simplified linear toy model [1] predicts around 219M units (2% growth) for Apple, and 1.576M units (5.8% growth) for global market. I expect Apple to do slightly better next year as loyal Samsung customers return to their new, non-exploding note but also iPhone 6 buyers come back for their fix, both cancelling out each other. Again, dampeners have been put in place since growth is not entirerly linear but more of a sigmoid, and we have entered a period of slower growth now.

Maybe I should update to a sigmoid-based model someday soon... For those interested in my amateur numbers I include the link down below. :)

[1] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hIbcjggIqiYF9lS2LbLWMcOypA6NoqTs-7EawsAEyfw/edit?usp=sharing

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Just published the Top 10 final year 2016 numbers and Q4 of course. Enjoy

Tomi Ahonen :-)

E.Casais

@Gonzo

When dealing with currency amounts, it is essential to analyse them in constant terms.

Let us consider the ASP figures you provide, and make them comparable via the GDP deflator.

Because of Apple accounting peculiarities, 2017 actually means 2016, 2016 corresponds to 2015, etc. I only take 2007 as such -- it is the first actual year of the iPhone.

Here are the results, in 2016 USD:

2016 ('17) - 695.00$
2015 ('16) - 698.48$
2014 ('15) - 701.90$
2013 ('14) - 662.27$
........
2007 ('07) - 571.15$

The true history:

1) Initially, the iPhone had an ASP markedly lower than today's models.

2) There was a jump in 2014 -- because of the introduction of the first truly large displays (4.7" and 5.5"), which justified substantially higher selling prices.

3) Since then, the ASP has been eroding very slowly, or, taking into account the calculation uncertainty, just about maintained itself.

This gives a somewhat different perspective on the whole affair.

It would be interesting to look at the entire series (including all years from 2007 to 2012).

Wayne Brady

@ECasais - lol! How's the iPhone ASP compared to Android's. What's the trend?

E.Casais

@Wayne Brady

Glad to analyse the trend if you provide the basic data...

E.Casais

And by the way: if you really have references to the ASP for various manufacturers, I believe many here would be interested in the information.

Wayne Brady

Someone has done the work for us: http://fortune.com/2016/02/15/apple-android-asps/

You'll see the ASP of the iPhone is remarkably stead falling from $700 to $650, then rising ever since the large iPhones were released to back up to $695 (the article is a year old).

Meanwhile, Android ASP's are falling. $441 in 2010 to $215 a year ago. Probably less now.

Thing is - this is an unfair comparison. It includes all those $50 android phones. Those phones don't compete with the iPhone. Far more relevant would be the ASP of the Galaxy S and Galaxy Note lines, the Pixel and other premium Android phones.

Ahh...so true but if one is going to compare the iPhone's falling marketshare against the total smartphone market....then compare the ASP's.

It would APPEAR that Android is not being able to hold it's value. Just like it APPEARS the the iPhone can't hold it's market share.

The reality is that there is more than one market segment and it would be far more valuable to compare "like with like".

E.Casais

@Wayne Brady

The analysis makes sense as ASP per manufacturer, as it coalesces information on the model range, both in type (entry-level, mid-range, high-end) and across time (models being sold for years).

As for the ASP of Apple mobile phones: Notice that an ASP of $650.00 in 2013 was equivalent to $675.99 in 2016, while 702.00$ in 2011 was equivalent to... $771.12 in 2016!

In nominal terms, Apple tried to keep its offering at the same price point. In constant terms, the evolution betrays a massive drop from 2010 to 2013/2014 (basically, $100.00 in constant terms).

In economic terms, iPhones have become less unaffordable as years went. Whether by design, because of less expensive models, or because Apple just cannot sustain its hold as constant prices.

For Android, the drop in value is even more striking than what the raw figures show, since $441.00 in 2010 are actually $484.42 in real terms. Yes, Android devices as a whole have become much more economical -- which shows that they simply have left their original place as a "smartphone" rival to iOS, Blackberry and Symbian to become the "feature phone" (i.e. the entry-level and mid-range device) of today.

E.Casais

@Gonzo

Your diatribe is amiss.

You posted a message (since deleted?) whose only topic was a rising ASP for Apple ("up, up, up"). My answer is: when dealing with money, just looking at raw amounts is simple-minded. And provided a quick analysis.

That's it.

I did _not_ discuss Android at all. Your message was about Apple, and Apple only; I answered only on that topic.

I did _not_ criticize Apple, or stated that it was "doomed". Again, this was not the topic.

I did _not_ discuss competition, or customer loyalty, or made predictions about race winners, or the headphone jack, or anything else. None of this was the topic.

When later provided a link to relevant figures, I even stated that the drop in ASP for Android devices was even _deeper_ than what raw numbers indicate, based on the same GDP-deflator approach.

Hence, before you wander off the discussion -- that you yourself initiated -- into meandering vituperations that "Don't you think that maybe you got it all wrong?", (1) read what people wrote (2) make an effort to understand it, and (3) keep on topic.

cycnus

Apple split by models in U.S.
https://twitter.com/philiped/status/827134460948836352

Wasp

Correct Apple ASP numbers are here:

http://appleinsider.com/articles/17/02/02/see-how-apples-iphone-reached-a-new-record-high-asp-of-695

Wayne Brady

Great link @cycnus - would love to have those breakdowns for other regions

Badger

Yes, the sales figures include an extra weeek, had that not been the case sales would have been flat or even lower than Q415. Apple has also benefitted from the unfortunate Samsung Note 7 battery problems. In other years Apple started selling new models from the start in China. No more tricks in the bag left to pump up the figures. Still, impressive that there wasn't even a decline. But then again, the Iphone is not about the phone and the specs:)

crun kykd

Read that iPhone's good quarter was an anomaly because quarter was 14 weeks long, not 13 as usual. If you scaled according to 13 weeks as usual, it was a down quarter. http://lapcatsoftware.com/articles/14weeks.html

Abdul Muis

@crun kykd

The magic of accounting..... I wonder what kind of magic trick Apple bring next quarter? If their iPhone 8 (Q4 2017) can't beat the expectation, they will crash badly.

Abdul Muis

@Wayne Brady... I mean @Baron95.... I mean @Gonzo

I feel embarrassed, but not embarrassed enough to make a new name just to troll someone.

Abdul Muis

@Gonzo

You're not repeating my words. You putting words in my mouth. You selecting my words out of context!!! That's trolling!!! And without Tomi's moderation that will be out of control because you will always cut and paste without the full context of words.

Abdul Muis

@Gonzo,

1. You ONLY here to respond to me, when your afraid your real account be banned by Tomi, and all the post delete. You definitely know you were wrong, because you need to hide your identity.
_

2. I didn't insulted EVERY APPLE FOLLOWER as iSHEEP!!! YOU PUT THAT WORDS IN MY MOUTH!!! I know LOTS OF apple user were tech enthusiast, but I also acknowledge some of it's were iSHEEP!!!! DO YOU HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THAT??? Tomi also use the term iSheep. You can pick me because I'm just visitor, you have NO GUTS to pick Tomi on this subject with your REAL name/account.

2b. If you have problem with that, THAT'S YOUR PROBLEM!!!! You have a low self esteem, when someone mock the product you use, that you feel proud of using, you feel hurt. YOU SHOULD SEE A SHRINK, not trolling!!!
_

3. You ALWAYS quote me out of context on ".... about your son ....".... !!! I don't need to continue to say about this, you know how I feel about iSheep, and I REPEAT, I feel AHSAME if my kids want apple product to be an iSheep!!!! --- BUT --- If they think and they can reason with me why they should get an iPhone by saying the right stuff, not the iSheep stuff (such as because it's premium, it have retina display, it just work), then I will allowed them to buy it <<<<<<<<<<<<<<,--------------- NEXT TIME YOU QUOTE ME, BE SURE TO QUOTE PROPERLY!!!!

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Gonzo:

If you keep stepping on toes, of course people will yell at you eventually :-)

So buzz off

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Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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