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« Are We Near 'Peak Screen Size' for Smartphone Screen Growth? Is 6 Inches Too Big? | Main | Deloitte Counted 120 Million Used Smartphones Were Sold in 2016 (growth of 50% vs 2015) - Understanding the second-hand handset market »

January 06, 2017

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Alex Kerr

Great stuff Tomi, thanks. I wonder how many of the non-smartphones in use run Java Mobile/J2ME (i.e. installable apps) and how many don't (i.e. Nokia Series 30 equivalent)?

John A

Always interesting to read this blog. Byt the way HMD Global have just launched their first android device Nokia 6.

So now we can say Nokia is back for real in the smartphone war.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi John

Thanks! That's a device and specs that is priced to move in numbers. $249 for a metal body Nokia with 5.5 inch screen at 1920 resolution and 16mp camera (with microSD support). That is very good value in the mid-range price. Launches first in China. It does seem like they'll just miss the gift-giving season in China but this will sell in good numbers, provided they also get distribution set up reasonably fast in many major markets. In China initially the Nokia 6 will only sell through one distributor. I would guess that distributor has made some serious marketing commitment with Nokia to get the exclusive deal and the global launch status.

If this is the mid-range product, expect uprated specs for the 'semi flagship' and lower specs for the 'entry level' model and for this to sell around March-ish and 3 models out by June-ish. HMD had suggested earlier (or rumors about it did) that they'd end this year with 6 or 7 models out.

On the specs the part that most delights me is the microSD support. I am guessing the phone may also be water resistant/modestly watertight and that some parts of its specs will still wait to be revealed that may have some more goodies for us. But from this, I am looking forward to the 'semi flagship' first top-end device as the 'bigger brother' compared to this (it is likely the last of the first three to launch, the lower-price model to hit stores before the higher price model but all 3 likely shown in Barcelona).

Oh and I do like the metal body vs that 'tacky disco plastic' look we now associate with Lumia series. I would expect HMD to also do the metal body in a series of colors if not at launch, then very soon thereafter.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

zlutor

@Tomi: here it comes: http://www.hmdglobal.com/press/2017-01-08-nokia-6/

let's see whether the King has returned, or... ;)

zlutor

@Tomi: the interesting thig how mobile opetators will react: support or ignore.

latter one will be writting on the wall - former one, well some real hope, at least...

Abdul Muis

https://mspoweruser.com/microsoft-ranked-8th-on-the-list-of-companies-awarded-with-most-patents-in-the-us/

IBM and Samsung with most patents in 2016, Apple not even in Top 10

Abdul Muis

http://www.theinvestor.co.kr/view.php?ud=20170109000602

Interesting data
2012.. Galaxy S3 . . . . . 65 million
2013.. Galaxy S4 . . . . . 70 million
2014.. Galaxy S5 . . . . . 45 million
2015.. Galaxy S6 . . . . . 45 million
2016.. Galaxy S7 . . . . . 48 million

Abdul Muis

@Wayne

If you go to that link, it say that number is only for that year. i.e. Samsung sell 45 million Galaxy S5 in 2014. It did not say how much S3 & S4 samsung sell in 2014!!!!

chithanh

Also the competition is taking away sales from each other, and especially mid-range Android phones are eating into high-end sales.

So comparing iPhone to Galaxy S or even Galaxy S+Note sales and claiming such is disingenuous.

Interesting

@chithanh
Why are we comparing Apple to all other manufacturers combined, but all other manufacturers to each other?
You can have OS comparison or you can have manufacturer comparison but as long as manufacturers share same OS, you can't have both.

chithanh

@Interesting
Firstly, Samsung releases mid-range phones which takes away sales from their high-end phones. But they still contribute to Samsung user base.

Secondly, comparing any individual Android manufacturer to Apple is kind of pointless. If anything, that Samsung in the presence of the Galaxy Note, their own mid-range AND the other manufacturers still sold so many Galaxy S is quite an achievement.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne:

Android the destroyer is destroying iPhone as well. It's just taking a lot longer time than usual. :)

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne: The Android network effects are destroying Apple worldwide.

down to 14.5 % market share or lower this year, and I expect this decline to continue. What happens when units sink to 190M... 185M...

Abdul Muis

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-court-idUSKBN14W2VH
U.S. appeals court revives antitrust lawsuit against Apple

chithanh

@PWE
Android is not destroying the iPhone. The iPhone will be around for a long time.
But what happened is that Android made the iPhone irrelevant for the future of smartphones, and put it on a trajectory that it cannot break out of.

Much like Microsoft is now irrelevant to the future of computing. But far from destroyed.

I think it is important to distinguish between these two things.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@Wayne:

See, them profit things?

That's what they said about IBM and the PC too - "You know, these cheap-ass PC computers will never get anywhere, IBM is highly profitable, why would they want to invest in the PC market which is clearly a lot less lucrative market! It's insanity! Better to go with these mini computers, we're making a killing with those!"

And that's the problem with your reasoning. Apple will sell somewhere around 210M units this year, and I suspect the number will be less than 210, but I have no proof. Next year, that number will diminish slightly. Like say, 203M. Still no problem.

Then, the slow bleeding starts. 195M... 191M... 188M... Still bleeding but it's ok, Apple is awesome, they'll turn this around! 184M... 180M... 175M... And then... 140M... 105M... 87M...

So in 12 years time, Apple is down to one third of it's units, with Android relentlessly chipping away at them, one piece at a time. And this is even when Apple makes fantastic phones loved by everyone.

So yes, it will take around 15-20 years before Apple is done, at this rate. But unless they disrupt some other industry that can now drive their iPhone sales, the iPhone is eventually going to be toast. :)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

I'm sure you guys spotted this & discussed it already (am rushing at airport) but just quick note, gosh, stunning numbers. So Nokia 6 will go on sale 19 January in China (only) and Chinese New Year is right at the end of the month this year, so they have just about a week to sell it. And the retailer is taking orders. They have 460,000 orders in first two days. For the mid-price Nokia for China alone. Yeah. Nokia is back.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

@Wayne Brady
In any market, the cheaper option will eventually develop to be good enough and take over the whole market minus a luxury segment. From cars to watches, to computers (mainframe, workstation, PC, going into tablets, to phones).

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@winter:

Yes, exactly. Apple will be relegated to the luxury segment.

The difference between Porsche and Apple however - Apple iOS is a different platform, hence you can only drive on Apple Roads(tm) in order to drive between the cities. Sure Apple built a lot of Apple Roads(tm) and those roads are nice and wonderful - but Android Roads(tm) also exist, to a lot more places, and have so much more utility even though they are not as nice to drive on.

And the reason I think Apple Watch is a failure, is that Apple have two choices - See a shrinking percentage of market share each and every year, until the market share is so low it cannot continue...

Or disrupt a new market that drives iPhone sales.

The Apple watch does not drive iPhone sales. Hence it is a failure (albeit a very profitable one).

Per "wertigon" Ekström

@wayne:

Money matters - but network effects, especially for platforms, matter more.

Facebook would not be half as useful as it is today if there were competing social networks of equal size.

The same thing applies here. The Android ecosystem is much, much larger creating a much larger network effect, which in turn diminishes and repels Apples network.

Over time, the cheaper option will push away the more expensive option, especially as the cheaper option overall provides more value (this has not quite happened yet, but is only a matter of time).

Apple has been able to stay afloat up until now because it has always been able to expand to new markets.

Now it has hit the brick wall of no more markets. But there is much much more market growth to be made - at the cost of profits. Apple will not pursue those lower segments of the market. So where can it grow to?

Looking at Apples history since 2000s, it has always disrupted a new market that has driven new hardware sales in all of it's product categories. That is the key, and with no new markets to disrupt, Apple is in dire trouble.

So, either Apple disrupts a new market, or it's flagship product - the iPhone - will slowly die. Once market share is down to 10-12% with ever shrinking pies, many will panic.

But it's not there yet...

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