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December 09, 2016

Comments

Tester

About your 4% I am not really convinced.

If this election is analyzed, it's clear that the actual problem was not a bias in the system but that Clinton simply campaigned in the wrong states and trusted a polling system that never factored in the special nature of Trump as a candidate and thus failed to get good results. What I found most telling is that in those critical states, Trump was severely underestimated by far more than 1 or 2 % which doesn't just show a systematic bias but an outright failure to evaluate the collected data correctly.

The first rule should be to make sure first, you win what you absolutely need, and only go beyond that if unavoidable. So, Arizona was a complete waste of effort, and the math showed that even Florida would not have been needed, if Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania had been won. I read one interesting article about Clinton's "Firewall states", i.e. those she absolutely needed, which were Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. I think it is utterly foolhardy to consider a state essential and then show no effort there, as a potential voter I'd feel completely demotivated by such a high-handed attitude. And she did it in two of these states! This should have been her focus from the start, she could have left Florida and North Carolina to Trump with just showing some token effort there, keeping Trump occupied. And Trump? He did campaign in Michigan, and everybody laughed at him. Seems he was right after all to go there.

Yes, she got those 2% more, but she got them in the wrong states. I think any smart candidate will learn from this next time and focus on what's needed to win, not what's needed to win big - and then the game will look a lot different again, especially if Trump manages to make good on his promises and run the country into the ground by sheer ineptitude. Let's just hope the Democrats manage to get someone up next time with more charisma than a sleeping pill. If they get another Clinton clone which cannot evoke any emotions in the voters they will lose for sure again.

Winter

@Tester
"I think any smart candidate will learn from this next time and focus on what's needed to win, not what's needed to win big - "

How can you allocate resources effectively if all your numbers are deceiving you? That is what happened to Hillary. Even Trump's campaign were convinced she was winning.

grouch

Tomi:

The press elected the Dumpster-diving con-artist.

See a link posted by Millard Filmore in the previous thread (it links to the original study on which it is based):

http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2016/12/not-that-this-resulted-in-a-cross-between-george-wallace-calvin-coolidge-and-jean-claude-duvalier-becoming-president-or-anything

Millard Filmore

I weep for my country. A new PPP poll [1][2] says:

"Only 53% of Trump voters think that California's votes should be allowed to count in the national popular vote. 29% don't think they should be allowed to count, and another 18% are unsure."

That CalExit thing is looking more and more appealing. We could join up with the east coast states that rejected Trump and become the United Coasts of America. It would be somewhat like the old Pakistan, one country split into two parts. Maybe Trump will build that wall after all, along the lines of the Berlin wall. To keep the serfs of the heartland from escaping to freedom.

[1] http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/12/trump-remains-unpopular-voters-prefer-obama-on-scotus-pick.html

[2] http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2016/12/basket-of-delusionals.html

newbie reader

one can sum total population of red states and compare to total population of blue states, and then compare to EC college votes

to see what is exact bonus of smaller state voters for republicans

newbie reader

also, nothing was said about

Sanders, who polled far better against Trump, his wins exactly in Wisconsin, and Michigan, and in 'white working class' demographics, that voted Trump, and anti-establishment wave in general

Millard Filmore

@newbie reader: Sanders did not go through the general election process. The Republicans compiled a thick stack of opposition research documents against him that was never used.

On the other hand, Trump was a plain dumpster fire and still won, so running one against the other throws all normal assumptions out the window.

grouch

Lock him up:

Donald Trump’s Harassment of a Teenage Girl on Twitter Led to Death and Rape Threats

http://nymag.com/thecut/2016/12/trumps-harassment-of-an-18-year-old-girl-on-twitter-led-to-death-threats.html

---

90 Percent of Teachers Say Trump’s Win Has Had a Negative Effect in Classrooms

http://nymag.com/thecut/2016/11/90-percent-of-teachers-say-trumps-win-is-bad-for-students.html

grouch

Planned Parenthood Has Already Received 82,000 Donations From ‘Mike Pence’

http://nymag.com/thecut/2016/12/how-many-planned-parenthood-donations-came-from-mike-pence.html

Planned Parenthood has received more than 315,000 donations since Donald Trump won the presidency — and more than 82,000 of those were made in the name of Indiana governor and noted uterine legislator Mike Pence.

The vice-president-elect, who has yet to prove that he understands how condoms work, is vehemently anti-abortion and has an abysmal record on women’s health. He has also waged a long-standing war against Planned Parenthood. To show their support of the organization (and to piss Pence off at the same time), people have been donating to Planned Parenthood in his name since the election. Pence will get thank-you notes for each of the donations.

paul

The press is full with this kind of stuff:

Secret CIA assessment says Russia was trying to help Trump win White House

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-orders-review-of-russian-hacking-during-presidential-campaign/2016/12/09/31d6b300-be2a-11e6-94ac-3d324840106c_story.html

paul

@Tomi

I do not agree with your explanation.

The polls where SEVERELY wrong in those three state for everybody (dems, GOP, Trump teams). The GOTV effort of GOP does not explain this wrongness fully.
The whole re-counting story is about finding out why the polls where so wrong.

paul

Russia 'intervened to promote Trump' - US intelligence
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38273933


Bombshell Secret CIA Report Says Russia Aimed To Steal White House For Trump
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/russia-hacking-trump-election_us_584b658ae4b04c8e2bb01356

paul

Republicans ready to launch wide-ranging probe of Russia, despite Trump’s stance
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/12/08/republicans-ready-to-launch-wide-ranging-probe-of-russia-despite-trumps-stance/?utm_term=.ee2800fd34b0

Winter

@paul
"Republicans ready to launch wide-ranging probe of Russia, despite Trump’s stance"

Collecting material to use during an impeachment procedure.

Álvaro

To understand the results you have to understand demographics and identity of the key rust belt states that have swung this election.

Historically the white working class voted democrat, these were the kind of workers that were unionized. But the left now has degenerated so much that their message is that a working class white family is privileged, and that they have to accept the competition of semislave labour abroad, and pay for the third word refugees to come to their neighborhood.

Trump is offering to protect the white working class through nationalism. Tariffs for cheap labour from overseas and immigration control to restrict cheap immigrant labour to lower wages. This white working class also likes a law and order discourse as they see how ethnic diversity makes their neighborhoods unsafe.

Trump has captured the white working class vote for the foreseeable future and with it key electoral college states. The republican party will be realigned to a nationalist party unless the globalist donor class can bribe neocons back in control.

Right now we are at the top of a huge bubble, the unfunded liabilities such as social security, old age pensions, healthcare, education are unpayable. As available resources constrict more and more as we advance in the popping of this bubble nationalism, tribalism and insolidarity will rise.

We will see interesting times ahead.

Renee

This is ridiculous. It appears to me the republicans have been planning to win by the electoral college vote. They only need a few big states to win. The other small states...just made it look good.

paul

@winter

Schumer demands congressional inquiry on Russian meddling

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/chuck-schumer-russia-senate-election-inquiry-232464

Millard Filmore

@Alvaro: "unfunded liabilities such as social security,"

The social security problem is easily solvable by removing the limit of income that is taxed to pay for it.

Underfunding education, yeah. Big tax cuts for the rich will do that. But thats ok. Smart serfs are dangerous.

grouch

Education is only underfunded where the Goons of Putin party has raided public treasuries to fund private schools -- see "vouchers" -- and slashed taxes for the very wealthy to curry their favor.

grouch

How's that "drain the swamp" thing working out?

---

'Welcome to the General Billionaires Administration': Pattern Emerges in Trump Cabinet

http://www.commondreams.org/news/2016/12/08/welcome-general-billionaires-administration-pattern-emerges-trump-cabinet

Another day, another cabinet appointment for the incoming Donald Trump administration. On Thursday, he nominated fast-food CEO Andy Puzder to secretary of Labor while Wednesday it was former Marine General John Kelly to head Homeland Security. And, as observers are pointing out, a pattern is emerging as the future commander-in-chief appears to be building a "government of generals and billionaires."

"The new presidential administration is shaping up as the complete alliance of Washington insiders, parasitic finance capital (aka Wall street, etc.) and the massive military-security complex," columnist Eric Sommer wrote at CounterPunch on Wednesday.

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