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« Quick Notes from Smartphone Wars - Kodak, Nintendo, Lenovo and Blaupunkt | Main | Handset Installed Base Passed Tipping Point. Now More than Half of All Mobile Phone Handsets in Use are Smartphones »

November 21, 2016

Comments

Karl Heinz

Could you please give an exact number of Windows Phone/Windows 10 Mobile smartphones according installed base by OS data?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Karl

It's far under 1% and vanishing so the numbers get pretty useless at that scale. In very rough terms it's under 20 million. If you need 'a number' to plug into a table or spreadsheet, you could use say 19 million but note, it is now falling so fast (oldest phones being replaced by very few new ones) that by now, mid November, the number is probably around 16 or 17 million and will be below 15 million by the end of December. When you're under 1% of a dying platform, the exact number is really meaningless..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Peter F. Mayer

If you sum up the BBK Electronic brands (Oppo, Vivo and OnePlus) you would get an differentTop 10 listing, like 1. Samsung 2. BBK Electronics 3. Apple 4. ...

Abdul Muis

@Peter,

The BBK electronic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBK_Electronics) have a new brand - IMOO. The target of IMOO brand of BBK group is student (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGQu2XB_b7k)

So, BBK Electronic is Oppo + Vivo + OnePlus + IMOO

Abdul Muis

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/21/galaxy-note-7-recall-did-not-damage-samsung-brand-in-us-poll.html
"Galaxy Note 7 recall did not damage Samsung brand in US: Poll

A global recall of fire-prone Galaxy Note 7 smartphones did not appear to hurt U.S. consumers' willingness to buy Samsung Electronics phones, a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Sunday showed.

The survey conducted Oct. 26 to Nov. 9 found that current Samsung smartphone users were as loyal to their brand as Apple Inc iPhone customers. It also found that people who knew about the recall were as interested in Samsung phones as those who did not.

......

The poll found that Samsung's customers were fiercely loyal to their brand. Some 91 percent of current Samsung users would likely purchase another Samsung smartphone, and 92 percent of current users would probably buy another Samsung product in general.

........
"

Abdul Muis

If the above poll were correct, samsung will have a surge in next Q3 2017

Karl Heinz

Thank you very much, Tomi!

Abdul Muis

http://news.softpedia.com/news/htc-might-sell-its-smartphone-business-in-2017-510374.shtml

"HTC Might Sell Its Smartphone Business in 2017

A new rumor now claims the company has already decided to sell its smartphone business, which was bleeding money for a few years now. Ms Cher Wang, HTC general manager, is said to have already sent a message to her closest collaborators that the smartphones business will be sold in the spring, next year.

Even though the Taiwanese media reports that HTC has denied these rumors, analysts claim that this is exactly what companies usually do before signing up the sale agreement.

The same source state that there actually four companies interested in buying HTC's smartphone business and one of the them is from Taiwan, the handset maker's home turf.

.....
"

RickO

Tomi - is this the first signs of a new but bigger version of - Smartphone Bloodbath - happening in the next year or two. MicroSlop dead and nearly buried, CoolPad came and went, Sony is slowly disappearing, so who else outside of the top 10 could crash and burn. Unless a company needs production facilities for extra volume urgently, it would be a very risky business shelling out all those dollars to buy a dying brand name. Nokia brand will re-appear early next year as well to add to the congested Android market.

Abdul Muis

I really wonder what went wrong with Sony. Their device quality have a great quality. Their flagship is really great.

I own Xperia Z & Nexus 4, while both device have almost the same specs (snapdragon S4 /2GB RAM), I feel that my Xperia Z is more smooth, faster and have better battery life.

RickO

Just read - Gartner has (sales to end users) Oppo 6.7% Vivo 5.3% Iphone 11.5%. Interesting.
Also just read - LeEco is apparently having financial problems. So who else is.
As I said months ago - Iphone sales will pick up leading into and through Xmas - BUT - I still predict that 2017 could be iPhones year to hell but possibly back with the iPhone 8 later in the year.

E.Casais

@Peter F. Meyer

"If you sum up the BBK Electronic brands (Oppo, Vivo and OnePlus) you would get an differentTop 10 listing"

I concur.

Aggregating the vast array of brands corresponding to the Chinese manufacturer Tinno, and the top-10 ranking will have an even more intriguing outlook.

It is a bit like Volkswagen, General Motors or Fiat: to gauge their actual market power, one must consider the whole conglomerate, not just individual brands.

@Abdul Muis

"I really wonder what went wrong with Sony."

Inconsistent product line-up, with devices often more expensive than the competition for the same feature set.

Locally Sony might still go strong, though.

In Switzerland for instance, Sony is still very much present in the offerings of electronic shops and mobile phone retailers.

Per "wertigon" Ekström

My linear "toy" model based on past performance seems to have caught up as well, it suggested 376M based on past performance so not that far off. Of course this model does not take into account things like Samsungs exploding batteries or other stuff like that so don't base anything off it, it's just a hobby excel sheet I run for fun, based on past and current growth rates. :) It suggests a total market of around 1500M units (and 74M iPhones), Tomi, is that plausible numbers?

In related news, Apple moving average marketshare is down to 14.6% if anyone cares, now we shall see what the iPhone 7 will respond to that.

cornelius

@Wayne Brady

Given that Tim Cook has included laptops, watches, Apple TV devices, iPads, iPods, iDongles and other magical iStuff in the billion he mentioned, probably 562m is about right from the point of view of number of devices (but it is too high from the point of view of the value that you get for the money you spend on these devices)

cornelius

News from the land of the dead. Basically Microsoft is giving up on Universal Windows Platform (UWP) and instead is building an emulator for traditional desktop apps to run on ARM devices. This will fail too. Besides the fact that the mobile apps UI is very different than desktop apps UI, the problem is that ARM processors are weak compared to x86 processors that power today's desktops. On top of that, the only useful situation is if this emulator is used in conjunction with Continuum. But the problem is that Continuum is already very heavy on resources. So now the poor ARM CPU must run Continuum, then must run the heavy desktop apps on top of an emulator that makes then even heavier. Why would any sane person buy a flagship Windows phone + the keyboard and the screen and whatnot (easily over $1000 in total) just to have basically what is an underpowered laptop? Why not buy a phone and a powerful laptop with the same amount of money?

Microsoft's x86 on ARM64 emulation: A Windows 10 'Redstone 3' Fall 2017 feature

http://www.zdnet.com/article/microsofts-x86-on-arm64-emulation-a-windows-10-redstone-3-fall-2017-deliverable/

grouch

Where (geo-politically) is the market growing the most? Will Captain Krazy really try to coerce Apple into manufacturing in the U.S.?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Wayne and Cornelius

Cornelius, thanks for responding already.

Wayne, this question comes up in many of the Quarterly update blogs. Same issue every time. Comparing my count of iPhone installed base number to Tim Cook's public statement about all Apple devices live. And we have the same argument every time in the comments. I am sick and tired of repeating myself. If it is YOU who asked this point before - then I am offended, that you refuse to accept my previous answer without responding to THAT, and rather feign ignorance and ask a stupid question now. Secondly, you Wayne have been on this blog for ages and have regardless read my ANSWER to that question, whoever posed it before, and KNOW why my number is lower. Third, Cornelius already told you.

But from me. If it was not you before, then you must have missed the recurring theme of the commentary of Apple's iPhone installed base analysis for years. I find that hard to believe. In that case, please accept Cornelius's answer, he like the other regulars has read my answer many times enough to have memorized MY RESPONSE to the question.

If it WAS you before then you are now being abusive to me personally. Stop it. The one thing I do not have much of, especially now in the busy season of the year for consulting, is extra time to waste. I don't like to repeat myself. You know the answer. Whether you like it or not, do not act abusively towards me and pretend you didn't hear the first time. Don't repeat this question EVER AGAIN Wayne or I will revoke your privileges on this blog. This question has been asked and answered so many times that our other readers know the answer by heart.

Thanks, Cornelius for the quick response to it.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

hi grouch

Just quick heads-up on the market biggest growth. Its in least affluent parts of the planet but their large countries. India, Nigeria, Vietnam, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, etc. Countries where mobile penetration rate nationally is still under 100% and smartphone migration rate is well under 33%. But within those regions, it is their largest countries because that is where the handset makers can afford to focus on now (India rather than Nepal; Nigeria rather than Cameroon; Vietnam rather than Laos, etc). So where we recently saw a lot of buzz, countries like China, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Turkey etc these are far too advanced already for any big opportunities to remain, so their growth rates are modest at best.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Per

Very plausible numbers yes. I think your full year number is a bit too high (I expect year to end around 1,450 rather than 1,500 because of the two quarters of downturn. Of course I hope I am wrong and you are right and the year ends stronger than I had expected...).

The iPhone number somewhere in the vicinity of 75 million plus or minus a few million is very reasonable.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Peter, Abdul and E

Yeah we could also count the full consortium numbers, its certainly another fair way to do it. I could do that for the next blog which has the year-ending numbers. We do already include various owned brands with their parents in other cases like Motorola with Lenovo, Alcatel and others with TCL etc.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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