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« Live Poll Decypher Blog: Day Before Election (and Election Contest) (updated 4x) | Main | I was totally wrong about Trump and Hillary. And obviously this will be my last Trump-related blog article »

November 08, 2016

Comments

grouch

C'mon, Tomi. Shove those numbers around some more and try to rescue me from RED. You have no heart.

grouch

Tomi:

Would this be filed under "Trump: Political Genius"?

A commenter on disqus describes being invited by the Trump campaign to do phone banking, after telling them "about a dozen times" to put him on the do-not-call list. He then gets two account verification emails and waits (4 and 7 hours, respectively) for account approval emails.

"How did they actually think that contacting people Sunday evening and/or Monday morning, with a system that requires two stages of processing, would provide them with an army of phone volunteers that would be able to call people before the election was over? Exactly the level of dumpsterfire you would expect from the god of dumpsterfires."

Now THAT is a GOTV machine to be reckoned with!

Millard Filmore

The first result is in!

"Source: CNN

8 total votes

4 Hillary
2 Trump
1 Johnson
1 Romney

Hassan-Ayotte 4-4"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141619415

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi grouch

Yeah, great example. There is also the anecdotal evidence of some poll watching volunteer who begged for info for weeks, finally was told 6 hours before he had to be - IN ANOTHER CITY - to go get his badge and materials and get to a polling place. Yeah. Brilliantly organized, just like everything with Trump haha..

They are trying to do something but as we've seen, the main thing Trump wants at every stage, is him on every stage. Like now, haha, in Michigan. Or how Trump got off script when someone handed him a Halloween mask of himself. There was some event a few days ago where the front-row Trump supporters were muttering 'Stay on message, stay on message' knowing, anytime Trump gets off-message, there is less chance to convince any possible undecided voters haha...

But 40% is the magic number. After we factor in the Hillary GOTV effort, can Trump hit 40%. I think he'll stay under it and hence, 12% election. The 51% vs 39% split is by the way what the Wall Street Journal found in its survey of people who had already voted nationwide. Now, early vote favors Democrats and Republicans show up on election day, so under any normal year, that would be mad to say, that if the early vote was 51/39, for Hillary to finish with that number - but now its again the GOTV machine, they can focus on an ever shrinking target and get them to the polls, while on the other hand, many Republican voters are going to be pretty downcast that all polls say he's lost it, when last time Romney was essentially tied (and lost it by 5).

(haha Trump is just holding his last rally of the election in Grand Rapids Michigan, I have it on BBC but turned the sound off, I'm so sick and tired of hearing his voice. I can't wait to never hear him drone on and on about his idiotic ideas again)

Oh, what will I do after tomorrow. Life will never again be this exciting. Maybe I'll go back to watching some movies on DVD or TV series.. hey, I used to do that before Trump came along. What was that one secret-agent guy, Jimmy Bond, something?

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Millard

Yeah its those two villages that vote early somwhere up in the NorthEast, was it New Hampshire or Maine or Vermont. And its gonna be... a Hillary landslide!!!

Haha

Tomi Ahonen :-)

grouch

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/kurt-eichenwalds-huge-list-of-trump-failures-destroys-gop-nominees-self-proclaimed-business-prowess/

Bonus at the end of that is David Fahrenthold's list of personal charitable contributions by Trump.

grouch

Dammit. I keep leaving the 'h' out of Fahrenthold's name.

Olivier Barthelemy

What worries me is that in elections with mavericks, especially the douchy kind, polls usually understate the maverick's results by quite a bit.
Hopefully you're right.

cornelius

I admit I am a coward. But being a coward has its advantages, like for example being able to post a totally boring (and gutless) forecast. This is what I wrote on October 18th (three weeks ago):
"So my forecast at the moment is 7% victory for Clinton. Trump will win Ohio, Arizona and Iowa. Clinton will win North Carolina, Nevada and Florida. Clinton will get 322 electoral votes. The Democratic Party will get the majority in Senate."
Then last week, after Comey endorsed Trump, I downgraded my forecast to 5%. Now I believe it will be between 5% and 6%. So here are my final numbers:
Clinton: 48
Trump: 42
Johnson: 6
Stein: 2
Others: 1
I'll post it on twitter under @fugazidrumpf

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Olivier

I worry (a lot) about that too. But gosh, however many times I go back to the math - the women will vote more for Hillary than they voted in Obama vs Romney. There is no way Trump matches Romney. No way. Then blacks and Hispanics will vote more for Hillary than for Trump. Again, no way it goes against that. I can't see math that has this a tight race haha.. The magic number is 40. If Trump is held to 40 (or below) its a double-digit landslide blowout, and 12% is just about Texas.. But gosh, yeah, sometimes those lunatics get in (like haha Gov LePage in Maine)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

Sorry, I left off the name of the town: Dixville Notch, NH

Tomi T Ahonen

Hey cornelius

What was that coward bit? It didn't make any sense to me...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

hi grouch

No, I think you spelled Fhahrentholdh right... cheers.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cornelius

Hi Tomi,
Well, just saying that i don't have the balls to go big, do bold predictions. Kind of like self-sarcasm. My sense of humor is a bit weird sometimes, especially when I am very excited (hint: tomorrow) :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

So Politico runs the story about early voting. And what do they find. A surprisingly strong Hispanic surge and a strong women's vote surge. Women's vote in early voting at about 55/45 levels. I estimated it at 54/46 for my model (for 2 points of the total gains above the polling). The Hispanic surge means Florida will go to Hillary, Nevada and Colorado won't be close and she'll steal Arizona too. Question is really only about Texas, that'll be counted late.

The women's vote, that goes nationally and if she gets to 55/45 instead of 54/46 gosh thats a 4 point cushion.. Obviously early vote is not the total vote and Democratic-leaning voters like to (or are driven to) vote earlier than Republicans but still. Thats a solid sign for a big surprise brewing for the vote count Tuesday night

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cornelius

@Tomi
I suppose this is the link?
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/clinton-trump-early-voting-230916

cornelius

OK, time to review the positive effects of this election:
1. Trump destroyed his brand and spent many millions on this election (he recouped some of the money but I believe he still spent more than he recouped). Hopefully he got himself closer to bankruptcy.
2. Trump totally destroyed the GOP (it will take many more years for GOP to come back)
3. Trump helped elect a sane president that will continue Obama's legacy.
4. This election helped reveal some major issues from Trump's past and got him into a few lawsuits and an FBI investigation (his foundation, a rape, Trump's so called University, etc.)
5. Trump wasted his time and his energy on a complete failure of a campaign. He is tired and frustrated and angry which is great.
6. Trump remains in history as the typical sore loser moron clown piece of shit.
Did I forget anything?
If Melania is a smart woman, she should divorce him and squeeze a few millions from Trump before it is too late.

Paul

My prediction is:

Hillary 53%
Trump 38%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%
Others 1%

Ievshenko

My fear is that the voter suppression that took place in North Carolina for the African American vote will not be made up today. But hey, in theory, all of the people who couldn't find time to vote early because of the reduced polling locations can now vote today.

Here's an important point: In Florida especially, but also in North Carolina, Clinton's team focused specifically on low propensity voters. They wisely predicted that since their normal voters would just show up on Election Day, they should get the unlikely voters who need a bit of pushing to vote early. Essentially, they used early voting to add new voters instead of just shifting when their likely voters vote.

steve

Ted Nugent vs Springsteen......

sheeeeeeeeeesh.....

Tester

Hm, I think this is a bit optimistic. The one wildcard here is the hidden Trump voters, so allocating all the undecideds to the other candidates sounds a bit fishy to me. I'd be cautious and allocate them 50:50 at best.

Winter

@cornelius
"Did I forget anything?"

A Trump total loss will be a huge downer for our European nativists. Trump has laid bare most of the "hidden" racism and fascism in the nativist movements like Front National (Le Pen), the Alternative für Deutschland/Pegida, UKIP etc. That can be played by the sane parts of the political spectrum.

Maybe, just maybe, Trump has shown the neo-cons and free market zealots that too much inequality is an immediate threat to the property and lives of the elites. Either the spoils of globalization are distributed over all people, or we are heading to a sequel of WWI (which ended the previous wave of globalization). Putin and Erdogan are showing us where nativism is heading.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Ievehsenko

Very good point but its actually even more devious than that. So yeah, they were (and still are) focusing on the low-propensity voters to show up. But its an evolution of what they did in 2012, except run now with lessons learned - and very importantly - with far more time and more resources.

So in 2012, they found they had TOO MANY resources on election day for what their machine could do. So they've prepared for that. Those low-propensity voters take MUCH MORE effort than a medium-supporter. So they need more calls, and calls need to be longer, and they may need people to go 'with them' so arrange groups of voters to go stand in line at the voting place together - and organize such trips etc. A lot of work, that volunteers can easily do, as long as there are enough volunteers, enough time, and a plan.

BUT if they've been doing this in Florida, are they doing it in Ohio, in Pennsylvania, in Virginia, in North Carolina, etc... of course they are. We've only now LEARNED about it via Florida. This is not an accidental system, this is a smart, learning system that is always data-driven. So then will they STOP ? NO. The same process is used also on Tuesday. They will keep putting MUCH MORE effort explicitly on the low-propensity voters also on Tuesday - because they NOW know better what resources are needed and had already put so many of their targeted people to the polls, to have less of that work to do.

Not consider the big picture. Its not just getting low-propensity voters to early-vote. Its actually THREE steps. Get un-registered citizens of voting age to register. Those are the first stage of capturing those low-propensity voters and making them even viable in the first place. Thats a lot of work (and Democrats all over the country registered far more new members than Republicans). Second is the early voting stage. Get as many of Democrats to vote early as possible. Doesn't matter which TYPE of voter you get, just try to get as many of them 'banked' as possible, because it always diminishes the 'remaining workload'

Then the final effort now on Tuesday, work to bring as much of the unvoted but Hillary-supporting voters in to vote.

Now a final wrinkle. Its possible that the news starts to spin the story on Tuesday that Hillary is ahead in all the polls and the media may take an approach that the election is somewhat decided. A bunch of 'normal' voters might then be dissuaded from showing up, whether Republicans or Democrats. Arguably a demoralized voter might be more inclined not to show up but then the Republicans on the whole are the more reliable voters. So this could damage both sides. Now, first - the Democrats have a huge lead in the early vote. So they have gotten more of their voters already 'in'. And a Tuesday-voter-lull will not hit them as bad as it would Republicans. Secondly - the GOTV effort is EXPRESSLY designed to get voters to the polls, regardless of how they feel haha...

And lastly, but gosh, not leastly, the two SURGES of voters - they will not CARE whether others say the election is decided they WANT to vote. The women's vote and the Hispanic vote will show up even if overall turnout on Tuesday is down 'because the election is decided'. Its a kind of triple-whammy to hit the Republicans, if the Tuesday turnout is down. Because of smart early vote work by the Democrats.

Me, I think this will be a huge turnout election, over 140 million votes cast. Big turnouts always benefit Democrats. If however, the Tuesday turnout is suddenly suppressed by news reporting the election is over (there are some strange 'exit poll' style news items coming already in the morning) - that I believe would actually help not just Hillary but all Democrats up and down the ticket - even more than a big turnout.

And to be clear, if say 40 million early votes have been cast, and Tuesday voting-day turnout is 100 million, we get the 140M total. If Tuesday turnout is 90M we'd be at abuot 2012 voter turnout level of 130M. If Tuesday turnout is 'low' I mean under 85M and total turnout even with record early vote, would be under 125M. That would be a 'low turnout' scenario, and I think, this year, that would still be a great election for Democrats, but me, I expect 140 million. A record turnout.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Paul

Could you post that for me via Twitter (and include the link to this blog article) then I can accept the entry officially into the contest? Thanks!

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

The elections are Rigged (by the Onion):

Trump Raises Concern Over Members Of Urban Communities Voting More Than Zero Times
http://www.theonion.com/article/trump-raises-concern-over-members-urban-communitie-54593

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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