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« First Concise Draft of Trump-to-English Dictionary (aka ‘Final Final Trump-to-English Wordbook’) | Main | Once Upon a Time in Mexico - Trump Desperate, Tries Miracle Cures to Dead Campaign »

September 01, 2016

Comments

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

An immediate update. The tactical issues of the day, may be totally forgotten by Oct 1 but do seem relevant today..

The schizophrenic Trump. He's spent the last 2 weeks or so trying to sound like a moderate and appeal to minorities. So he said he had 'regrets' while not actually identifying what those were, and then he seemed to want to appeal to blacks and Hispanics, while speaking to lily-white audiences in 95% white neighborhoods but Trump seemed to be trying. And he spoke on the Teleprompter. And it did seem like a mild pivot towards a kinder-gentler Trump. One with messages and messaging driven by the polling insights from Conway.

But where is the Breitbart-Nazi, Bannon? Well, the Arizona Border-Wall speech with the return of the Deportation Force, thats the Nazi side. One, clearly Trump has not settled on a new less abrasive style. Secondly, he's clearly conflicted. Third, there is an internal power struggle (again) in the Campaign - Conway vs Bannon. One of the two is a 'CEO' and the other 'Manager'. One is a woman the other a man. I wonder who will win haha, and who will soon be fired.

Also yeah, Trump is inconsistent. Why? Because he only listens to the last person who spoke to him. So as long as he gets split messaging (like now Bannon/Conway, or in June when it was Lewandowski/Manafort) it will be this circus again for us.

But its entertaining for sure. Haha, the Mexican President already saying he told Trump no of course Mexico won't pay for the wall, and only hours later Trump tells a live audience, Mexico will pay for the wall. How incredibly stupid is this of Trump? He's only making anyone still staying with him seem more ridiculous and inviting all who left Trump - moderate Republicans and foreign policy Republicans - to come out and say that Trump is unhinged.

Pass the popcorn (and another shot of whisky)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Reco

LOL yeah. Hillary just announcing they'll go six-figure TV ad buy in Arizona. That silly Wall Speech is what probably killed Trump's chances in Arizona. And now Hillary has committed the money to the state. She can afford one more state at that level because she pulled out of Virginia and Colorado, I am expecting that to be Georgia in coming days but this Arizona ad buy, its purely the stupid stunt by Trump. He's committing political suicide, and Hillary has decided now she's going for it. I also am curious to see how John McCain plays it - he has just won his primary so he can now safely attack Trump and won't have his right flank vote him out. Meanwhile Arizona Senator challeger to McCain should be tying McCain to Trump. The battleground just got massively worse for Trump and as Hillary is nearly tied in Arizona, she can very well flip the state. That would end Trump's chances..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

sgtrock

Hi, Tomi;

Are you seeing the same race that I'm seeing?

FiveThirtyEight shows Hillary peaked at 79.5% chance of winning on their polls-plus on August 8th. She's had a slow, steady decline ever since. As of today, she's down to 70.0%. When I eyeball the trend line, it looks like it will drop below 50% 4 or 5 days before the election.

RCP is a showing similar narrowing of the lead. Hillary had a 7.6% lead on August 9th. Yesterday she had a 4.1% lead at the end of the day. This morning I woke up to see she has a 3.6% lead.

In other words, looking purely at the trends on these two sites, it would seem that Trump has a winning strategy going. Not sure why because every time he opens his mouth I'm positive he's just lost another 10% of the electorate. Instead, the opposite seems to be true. (shakes head in wonder)

If Hillary is not going to lose and instead is going to outperform the way that your analysis would suggest, she has to have a huge turn around very soon. I'm not sure that Trump ducking the debates or losing badly at them would be enough on their own to give her that boost.

I'm curious to know what you think. What do you think it would take to reach that landslide?

Winter

It is as if Donald does not want to win:

The Daily 202: Trump triples down on a losing immigration position in Phoenix
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2016/09/01/daily-202-trump-triples-down-on-a-losing-immigration-position-in-phoenix/57c78349cd249a6fa9f8207d/

"-- Why was Trump’s tone so much different in Mexico City than Phoenix? Here are the three likeliest explanations:

1. The candidate struggles to weigh conflicting advice. Kellyanne Conway, his new manager, wants him to be softer and gentler so he can improve his standing with women. Steve Bannon, the head of Breitbart who is now his campaign CEO, and Stephen Miller, a former aide to Jeff Sessions, crafted last night’s speech.


2. Like many politicians, he is intentionally trying to be all things to all people. A chameleon in plaid, you might say.

3. Trump is so desperate that he’s willing to try everything. Dana Milbank writes that the trip to Mexico was a “HAIL MARIA,” and only someone who was losing would try it."

Winter

@sgtrock
"In other words, looking purely at the trends on these two sites, it would seem that Trump has a winning strategy going."

The GOP does not think so. See the previous link. They are panicking.

Winter

More on the unpivot on immigration:

Trump’s visa problem: The Donald renews his anti-immigration push — and...
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/01/trumps-visa-problem-the-donald-renews-his-anti-immigration-push-and-the-hypocrisy-is-mind-numbing/?google_editors_picks=true

"That’s a line echoed by dozens, if not hundreds, of Donald Trump’s former employees from virtually every business he’s run. But this one runs afoul of Trump’s signature campaign policy and shows him to be on the wrong side of federal immigration law. I know the bar for Trump is lower than for any presidential candidate in history but surely charges of running an illegal sweatshop exploiting underage girls on tourist visas should garner at least a little attention for the man who promises to put his rival for the presidency in prison?"

grouch

RE: TV air time

It's still a barrage of trump, trump, trump on all broadcast tv (and online publications).

http://television.gdeltproject.org/cgi-bin/iatv_campaign2016/iatv_campaign2016?filter_candidate=&filter_network=AFF&filter_timespan=LAST30&filter_displayas=RAW

Winter

Trump Invested in Safe States, Lagged on Battleground Staff
http://www.newsweek.com/trump-safe-state-spending-494856?google_editors_picks=true

Tester

@sgtrock:

Maybe it's because Trump has had pretty few brainfarts in the last two weeks. Well, that has changed as of today...

The old Donald is clearly back in play now.

sgtrock

@Tester;

Sure looks like it. I see that both 538 and RCP have swung back a little in Clinton's favor in the past couple of hours.

It's just mind boggling to me that the race is as close as it is at this point. As bad as Trump has been, how could any decent person see him as a viable President?

Tester

@sgtrock:

I think the main reason is that Hillary Clinton is the second least liked presidential candidate in a long time. Against any serious opponent I'm sure she'd sink like a stone.

Also have a look at the developments in many European countries where the right wing troglodytes are coming to the surface. A main factor here and there is that many people are thoroughly frustrated with career politicians and grasp at any straw if someone promises to be different.

sgtrock

@Tester;

I have to ask, WHY are they so frustrated? I mean that very seriously. According to Gapminder, the entire planet's population is in far better shape now than it was 10 years ago, 25 years ago, 50 years ago... by any variable that you care to name. (Well, with the single glaring exception of maternal mortality rate in the U.S. where it's been going in the wrong direction since 1980.)

I guess Newt Gingrich was right in one respect. People vote their emotions, not the facts.

Tester

@sgtrock:

"I have to ask, WHY are they so frustrated? I mean that very seriously. According to Gapminder, the entire planet's population is in far better shape now than it was 10 years ago, 25 years ago, 50 years ago...

I agree that it's better than 50 years ago - but 10 years? Sorry, no. I'd say things have been going downhill since 2001, and - oh the irony - the GOP is one of the main reasons for that.

Just a few things people may believe in:

- politicians are selling out to greedy multinational corporations.
- politicians will lie as much as necessary to win the next election.
- most politicians are bought.
- the entire political system is corrupt and rotten to its core.

and so on and so on. The worst thing is, there's a grain of truth in any of these statements, so it's very hard to convince such people to act responsibly.

sgtrock

@Tester;

Remember, the media makes money by drawing in an audience by hyping problems, not by telling the sober, boring truth. I strongly urge you to visit Gapminder.Org and play with any set of variables that you wish. Pick a variable for the X and Y axes, then let the historical record play out. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised. :-)

sgtrock

One other thing that I forgot to say: I am in total agreement that the GOP in general and the Tea Party in particular has been holding back progress in the U.S. We could be a LOT better off if they were willing to govern from facts and not prejudices.

Winter

@sgtrock
"I have to ask, WHY are they so frustrated?"

It is a worldwide phenomenon, going from Denmark to India and from Russia to China to the USA. There are only three intimately linked phenomenons of equal wide ranging spread: market liberalization and globalization where the spoils of these are inequally distributed. We saw the same poisonous mix in the run up of WWI. We know how that ended.

The world is coming closer and closer and the "natives" are not the ruling elite they once thought they were. Note that it is always people who hardly see the "foreigners" that want to exterminate that threat (the proposed solution always comes down to ethnic cleansing).

cornelius

I agree with sgtrock. It looks increasingly likely that there won't be a landslide. I would love to see in 2016 the biggest landslide victory in the history of US elections but it won't happen. The Republicans have managed to damage Clinton a lot. I think her victory will be similar to Obama's 2012 victory. I think Trump will come to the debates more prepared that many of us will expect. There is a good chance that the debates will leave the race mostly unchanged.

A few things about the ground game (I've participated in a few volunteer events here in LA, helping with data entry and building the contact info database). Last Sunday we called Democrats in Nevada. The plan is to call every single registered Democrat in the country. In addition, volunteers from LA are hauled by bus to Nevada to try to talk and convince Nevadans to vote for Clinton. I haven't heard of any trips to Arizona though (yet). I was told that we are going to start calling Republican women soon (that should be fun).
So besides Clinton's paid staff advantage, I think she has an even bigger advantage with volunteers. I doubt the Republican Party and Trump are anywhere near this level of activity that I've seen here in LA. Also the number of offices in a battleground state may be misleading since offices in the neighboring states may play an important role in the battleground states.

Craig

Hi - I just discovered this site yesterday when doing a random Google search. I read the long article breaking down the 2012 Obama vs. Romney GOTV/data operations. What a great read! Has there been anything posted regarding Clinton's operations to date? Thanks.

cornelius

@Craig
Not yet. Clinton could not use Obama's data operations system during the primaries because she was still competing with Sanders (it wouldn't be fair). I think she started building/updating Obama's data operations system only after she became the official nominee. And most likely Clinton won't release any information about the system until after the election, because that information might help Trump.

Millard Filmore

Mrs Trump is forging ahead on the lawsuit about whether or not she was a paid escort.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/melania-trump-daily-mail-suit

Discovery should be a blast!

Eduardo M

@sgtrock

Yes, the world has a whole has gotten a lot better in recent decades. However, the benefits have been quite unequally distributed. The great gains have mainly been in the developing countries.

In contrast, in the developed countries, wages have been stagnant or declined, and wealth and income inequality has increased.

This is because manufacturing jobs have been lost to overseas competition, or mechanization/automation. Also many middle management jobs have been wiped by computerization. And more recently many skilled jobs like in computer programming have been outsourced to developing countries.

This is probably the most important reason why so many people support Trump. It's why the great majority of his supporters are poorly educated whites, as that is the group that has lost the largest proportion of good jobs.

It is also a main reason for the rise of the far right in many European countries.

Of course, the problem is neither Trump nor the far right have workable solutions. But you need to understand the economic pain being expressed is legitimate.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi sgtrock and Craig - and the rest too!

Craig - welcome to the blog, happy you read that article. I hope to write similar stories here about the data wars, because its of interest to more of my blog's readers (and to me personally and my business). So far they've been pretty tight-lipped about it, but trust me, this blog will report on every detail that slips out from either camp haha.. meanwhile, enjoy our discussions and debates :-)

sgtrock - fair reading of the race and very fair question. It seems like in the past 2 weeks the race has tightened somewhat - a mild post-Convention bounce receeding perhaps. Or a sign that the trends are going against Hillary and it will be a tight race by November.

Lets start on the case of the 'race is tightening' - actually no. If we take the long-term trends, not just a week or two, but last 4-5 months, its been a 5 point race. It was a 5 point race when both Trump and Hillary were still in their primary races. It was a 5 point race after both had clinched their nominations. It was a 5 point race before either had picked VPs or had Conventions, and its a 5 point race now. Good news/bad news. Good news is the race is stable (and for Hillary fans) she's ahead by more than anyone in recent history at this time, and with 2 months left in the race, nobody has come back from 5 points behind, to win the popular vote (but Al Gore in 2000 won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College anyway and W Bush became President). Within that 5 point race its been fluctuating by - about 5 points. VERY briefly after the end of the Republican Convention, the race tightented to even, a few polls had Trump a point or two ahead, then it swung exactly the opposite way to nearly 10 point lead for Hillary and a few polls had her up by 12% etc. Now its back to a 5 point race.

BUT. The 5 point race STILL holds, after the 2-person race expanded to a 4-person and/or even 5-person race we have now. It did not tighten. Both Hillary and Trump lost in the expansion of the race (partly as they are so unpopular) but it makes Trump's chances of winning far worse, because now shifts between Hillary and Trump get far tougher to achieve, and a 5 point victory in a 4-person race where 10% of the vote or more goes to 2 or 3 independents on election day, means Hillary wins MORE STATES with that margin. Its easier for Trump to pick up a lot of states if he's getting 47% of the national vote (5 point race with 1% to independents, 52% Hillary, 47% Trump, 1% others, essentially Obama-Romney 2012), than if he's getting 42% of the national vote (47% Hillary, 42% Trump, 11% others as current polling suggests in rough terms).

If we consider 'is the race stable or has it moved to one or the other' there is SOUND evidence to suggest the race is stable. The horse-race between Trump and Hillary is relatively stable BUT the BIG change was the strong emergence of the third parties. That shift in the election means that Trump's position has worsened to a great degree, even as he is behind 'only modestly' in national polling.

Now for the counterpoint. The race is not won on the national vote count. Its won in the battleground states. Hillary was ahead in the battleground states forever, since they first started to measure head-to-head polling and she'll held a huge lead all along. BUT now the past month. Before August started, Trump was ahead in 3 of the dozen or so states we were watching ie Georgia, Iowa and Nevada. Thats not enough to win the election but at least he had polling leads in 3 states, 2 of which are 'real' battlegrounds (Iowa & Nevada) and one that is an expansion of the map (Georgia). On the 'no tossups' condition of the battleground effective August 1 via RCP, Trump was holding onto 216 EV votes (270 needed to win). If he held all those, but added to that Florida and 2 of the other 3 biggest battlegrounds Ohio or Pennsylvania or North Carolina (and Trump has been within a few points in OH and NC) then he could win the election. This was a 'narrow path' but certainly do-able because he could win by picking up a few states that were within a few points where he was behind.

What happened past month. Trump rampaged in silly states from Connecticut to Mississippi while Hillary and her broad gang of surrogates hit the battleground states and she was on the air with a huge barrage of 20,000 TV ads in the battleground states. Of those 3 states where she was behind, Hillary picked them ALL up (while Iowa is truly razor-thin, her margin there is only 0.2%). But in so doing, one of the pick-up opportunity 'wild fantasy' swing states they were talking about - Arizona - slipped back to Trump. So in the past month Hillary picked up 3 but lost 1 battleground state for a net gain of 2. Now the battleground is daunting. She's now up by 'no toss-ups' today by 362 vs 176. Hillary wins every state won by Obama in 2012 PLUS she adds North Carolina and Georgia to that. He margin currently is on par with 2008, Obama vs McCain - what was called a landslide.

THAT is the real race. Not what 538 blog's prediction model tells us (while I generally agree with that prediction and it has consistently shown a huge lead for Hillary on every day except a few days after the Republican convention). The 538 prediction model is a kind of 'speedometer' gauge, showing what current issues impact the race, minor changes. But it won't give us a trend. The trend can be taken from the RCP polling averages, and the accurate measure is only the battleground states.

(will continue in next comment)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi sgtrock

(continuing)

Now the OTHER side of the battleground race. A part of the states are beyond the reach of Trump. Michigan was never going to happen, its a regularly-returning dream of Republicans. McCain wanted it, Romney wanted it, Trump talked about it. No money there, no campaign staff, no offices and no TV ads (until now, foolish Trump goes on the air as he is desperate and needs some miracle). New Mexico technically a battleground state, is past 10% for Hillary. Wisconsin is a hopeless cause. But Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire - these were 3 states that were close and most years would suit the Republican. In the case of Trump New Hampshire and Virginia were supposed to be very suitable for him. And in the past 30 days, Hillary has put these 3 states away. They are all at 10% or more for Hillary. THAT is significant work on the ground and locally, TV ads and local staff, diligently working to put a state away. Like Obama did in 2012 with New Mexico and Colorado. Get them off the map. Win them before voting even starts. And hopefully your rival will continue to pour resources into a bloodbath they cannot win - as Trump has this time been putting resources into Colorado until last week, when Trump cancelled that Colorado event. His smart pollster Conway was finally able to convince Trump that Colorado is a lost cause, they can't win there. Thus no sense wasting a campaign stop there (and even as their press release announced TV ad buy for Colorado, we now found out Trump is not spending TV ad money in Colorado either).

In the month of August, Hillary has put Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire away. She won those states. She has built a nearly unassailable lead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But while those STATES have had huge gains for Hillary, nationally, she's 'flat' in polling. Its because it is a VERY smart campaign, not caring about the national numbers, they focus like a laser on the dozen states where November will be decided, and she's running the table on Trump. She is ahead in 12 battleground states: CO, FL, GA, IA, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI and Trump only has a slight lead in one AZ. And just now, yesterday, Hillary announced she's putting over $100,000 in TV ads into Arizona. Its the same battle plan. She does a few battleground states at a time, heavy focus there, big money, and crushes Trump. Then as she has gain an unassailable lead, she stops (like in Colorado and Virginia). Note, the HUGE difference in how this is done, is all of Hillary's advertising is tailored for the local markets. She runs different ads even within the same STATE into different markets - because Hillary has a team of TV ad specialists, professionals who worked with Obama doing this same method in 2012 led by Robbie Mook who essentially designed this strategy back then. Trump has done only national (and quite bland) TV ads so just like Romney, Trump runs the same ad in all states where he runs TV ads.

So looking back at August, Hillary not just stole 3 states from Trump (but yes lost 1 in that process) she ALSO moved the polling in her OTHER states strongly in her favor. That shrunk the 'battle' space to 6 states that can be considered to be in play to decide the election: Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Of these Pennsylvania is a pipe-dream for Trump, he is never going to recover from how bad he is doing there but he is trying desperately and will fight for PA till the bitter end. The other 5 states are all polling at under 5% and this is the real race for President.

Note Wisconsin. Its not in play even as RCP just moved WI back into 'toss-ups' because a new poll shows the race a bit tighter there yes. Its not going to be tight. Trump isn't on the air on TV in Wisconsin. Hillary has not spent one cent in TV ads in WI because the Democrats know its a safe blue state in Presidential elections and she will easily carry it.

The Hillary camp has played August VERY smartly but patiently. If they had made a big fuss about how some early Republicans were jumping onto the Hillary band-wagon, that would have been seen as being a traitor and the right-wing media would have crucified them and that kind of behavior would have ended. Instead, almost every day we've had at least one Republican in the press, saying he's not going to vote for Trump. Its a steady drip-drip-drip. Hillary has every one of those on file, on videotape, and has TV ads cut, for the last weeks, to convince the last undecided voters. She is holding that fire. She knows the longer they wait, the more big names - and ever BIGGER names - they will get. so far at least one sitting Republican Senator, two sitting members of Congress (one even up for re-election, the other retired) and at least one sitting Governor have said, they will not vote for Trump.

Then there is the 'why did I switch' argument. This will be incredibly powerful, when those who had PREVIOUSLY supported Trump, have since soured on him and now are against him. Those are devastating and again, Hillary is not (yet) using this incredibly damaging ammunition against Trump. Why? Because as long as she waits, she'll get more of those 'confessions' by Republicans. The reasons WHY they quit Trump will be devastating ads.

All that said, Hillary is the least popular politician ever to run prior to this year. Were it not for Trump, she'd be in big trouble yes. A campaign against Marco Rubio could have been quite the challenge or even say John Kasich. But again, look at the Gallup poll popularity. Hillary is slightly gaining but Trump is still falling further. Trump is hated by 60% of the country (Hillary by 55%). Hillary has not tried to make herself MORE disliked - she is slightly improving on horrible popularity but Trump keeps making it worse on himself (see the Mexico trip and Arizona speech on The Wall). Trump's ceiling of 40% is incredibly solid, permanent, unbreakable. Hillary's ceiling around 45% is not that solid, she often polls at individual national polls at 50% so there is soft dislike of her, or the type of voter who doesn't LIKE her but sees she's competent enough to be President regardless, while Trump cannot be given the keys to the White House.

Thats where the race is today. What the teams have done and where its headed. Thats before the last 'known unknown' to use Rumsfeld's language. Now we get the debates. I'm an ex pro debate coach at a nationally ranked program at the university level. I know how to judge debaters for their skill and separate talent from a lucky argument or a stumble by an opponent. Trump is one of the worst TV debaters we've ever seen who was lucky and then chickened out just when it was about to get tough. Hillary is one of the best debaters of our lifetimes. She was better than Obama in the debates back in 2008 when they went head-to-head more than a dozen times.

Its possible Hillary has an overconfident moment and that Trump surprises us - remember Obama vs Romney first debate of 2012. If that happens the race could tighten in an instant and be tied and we'd be in a contest. Trump is FAR FAR less PREPARED than Romnney was in 2012. To prepare Trump for Hillary is like trying to get Sarah Palin to learn world geography in 2008. He is utterly totally ill-prepared to be President in knowing the very basics of how the US government works. Because the first 'sleepy' debate by Obama of 2012 is so well in memory, and half of Hillary's team lived through that nightmare, how it destroyed three months of great election work in one night, that they had to start from the beginning again - is near certain guarantee that Hillary will not come in over-confident or ill-prepared. She knows its not enough for her to win, she has to destroy Trump in the first debate, make him look like the fool he is.

So Hillary is prepping like mad. Trump? I betcha the Mexico trip was time that was scheduled for debate prep and he preferred to go travel abroad instead. It is totally possible that Trump is playing us like a wily fox, has very good debate prep team working with him behind the scenes, often hidden on the plane so nobody even knows, and he's been hitting the books and studying world geopolitics and national security and government economics and taxes and agencies and programs. But that goes 100% against EVERYTHING Trump has been for 70 years. Its possible Trump is really prepping too. Even if Trump did a thorough 3 month deep immersion into all the issues he has to master AND practised sensible intelligent-sounding speech - for 3 months - he'd still be outclassed by Hillary Remember, Hillary beat OBAMA in their debates, its what kept her in the race where Obama had such amazing oratory and a movement to support Obama otherwise.

But the debates ARE a factor that can still change the race. There is nothing left after that, that can be counted upon. Nothing else that happens definitely in every race, that could swing a race by 5 points in either direction. Its POSSIBLE we get horrible economic news or a terrorist attack or some foreign policy event (Putin, Kim Jong-Un) or a health episode by either candidate. But those are random chance that rarely happens in the last 70 days. We know the debates are coming and the smart money says Hillary wins big out of the debates. If she wins, the polls WILL jump at least somewhat in her favor. If she wins big, she may get a permanent 5 point bounce in her favor.

If the race is a 10 point race heading into October (my next Scorecard) then its all over for Trump - because no wise money comes to save that sinking ship right as he needs desperately the money to counter the huge TV ad barrage - that Hillary has ALREADY BOOKED. She has 77 million dollars booked, Trump just promised 10 million against that while only delivering half. If Hillary is currently booked to do October at a rate of 10 million dollars of TV ads per week (plus 2 million more on radio) and Trump struggles so badly he can only afford 5 million dollars NOW in two weeks - plus Hillary has a SuperPAC that and almost double that spend while Trump's SuperPACs are struggling (one charlatan took 2 million dollars from gullible Trump supporters promising a dinner prize with Trump haha). Its not going to be pretty those last days.

Then Hillary will run the 'Republicans who can't vote for Trump' ads and the 'Confessions of a former Trump supporter' ads and a 10 point advantage turns into 12 points or 15 points and the last straw is the ground game (and big data) which turns that into 18 points by November 8. If there is a danger of election fatigue and not showing up - Democrats and younger voters are far more prone to this than Republicans and older voters - then Hillary has two aces in her sleeve - the women will show up once for a wave election, to vote in the first female President. That cuts across partly lines and no matter if the overall turnout is high or low, Hillary will have a wave of female supporters who might not be otherwise interested in voting, who will come out once for her. Like Obama had the black vote surge of 2008. And the other surge is the Hispanic vote, less of a surge in that, but as Hillary promised clearly a pathway to citizenship, amnesty, for illegals, and the majority of Hispanics know someone who is illegal, this will drive up the usually-below-average voter turnout rate of Hispanics to close to the national average turnout rate. So even if a highly 'demoralized' voter base hates both candidates - Hillary will still see at least a modest wave coming to her, but its VERY likely that Trump will see his support fall to below what recent polling said because the election result is so dire in the last polls of October and early November.

That said, the PRESS will want a horse-race and will hype up any polls that say the race is getting closer and not spend a lot of time on polls saying the race has Hillary pulling further ahead. They will want to stir up any controversies they can find to keep Hillary from getting a clear coronation etc. (But to be fair, the Press now also utterly hate Trump so when they do get their chance, they will skewer him, gleefully for the ratings).

LAST. EVERY fundamental is in Hillary's favor. She's the stronger better more qualified candidate. She has the more popular populist positions. She has BY far the better campaign. She has the better talent, more money, bigger ground organization (and big data). There is literally no advantage that Trump holds, where even in TV appearances, when we exclude Fox's relentless coverage of Trump - on the other networks where the undecided voters are, the TV coverage is almost perfectly balanced too.

If it was a race where one side had some advantages but the other side had others - in 2008, Obama was the young new face but McCain was the war hero of great esteem and national security expert who was criticial of the Bush-Cheney wars - both sides had something. But not now. Trump has no weapon with which to win against Hillary.

BTW that means they will 'swift boat' her to their best ability in the coming months. Invented lies and attacks to add to the Benghazi and email attacks so far. It was how W Bush won against John Kerry in 2004. This will be Trump's last straw but even against that, Hillary is more prepared, and she has the stronger organization and money to counter such attacks.

But seriously. She is BY far the more qualified candidate. She has the favored positions on essentially every political issue. She has more money, smarter people and a FAR bigger organization. She is running a smart campaign. He is a moron, keeps shooting himself in the foot or if not foot, then straight into his face. He has silly contradictory positions that he keeps flipflopping on. He has no money, dumb people around him that keep feuding amongst themselves and giving Trump contradictory advice. He doesn't have a ground game for election day and he's running the dumbest campaign of the modern era. There is no way if the national race is 5% today, that this somehow becomes a 'tighter' race in the next two months. All the fundamentals are with Hillary, but she is holding her powder dry, letting Trump dig deeper the hole he is in, and she waits until she pounces to destroy him, starting with the debates.

Thats how I see it haha.. BUT its a fair point to note, that yes her advantage seems to have diminished a bit in the past week or two, is that a warning sign? It could be. It isn't. This is an epic blow-out election. Mondale lost by 18 points and has not been heard of since 1984 (he's still alive)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

grouch

Winter:

The WaPo article you linked above includes a link to...

Here’s how Russian hackers could actually tip an American election
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/08/30/could-hackers-tip-an-american-election-you-bet/?tid=a_inl

The article points out vulnerabilities in our (idiotic) electronic voting systems. (It's amazing that we still don't have paper trails in all states). I don't know why the article only considers Russian interference; home-grown manipulation seems more likely, to me.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

So from the trail. Three significant items. First off, the Arizona Immigration speech by Trump. It has soured his relations with his 'Hispanic outreach' team some who have quit him and are vocally upset about how Trump was playing the Hispanic vote. What does this mean. Trump TRIED to sound reasonable. He had about 15% of Hispanic vote. Now they feel betrayed, that will fall. Will it WIN more votes for Trump? No. The racist Nazi KKK vote he had with Sheriff Arpaio from Arizona and the white supremacists - Trump had already locked that vote. So he again is trying to win by subtraction. Again repelling yet another slice of voters who were suspiciously but still tentatively in his corner. With 67 days to the election, this is sheer utter total madness. It will not help Trump pick up any more support but it will drive some away. And it serves to harden those who were against him to begin with. And it now pushes MOTIVATION for Hispanics to vote against that rich gringo who lied to them.

Then lets go to .. Nebraska. Yeah. Totally utterly completely red state. Romney won Nebraska by 22 points in 2012. It is about as red as they come, up there with Kansas and Oklahoma and Alabama. So fresh poll out by Reuters/Ipsos from Nebraska... ouch ouch OUCH. Hillary up by THREE POINTS in Nebraska !!!

Now what happened. If you remember a few weeks ago, Hillary held an event in Omaha Nebraska and the campaign said they will want to try to win the one EV vote from the state which is one of 2 states that splits its EV votes by electoral district (the other state being Maine). Most of Nebraska is rural, totally Republican at about 30%, but the city of Omaha is about even 50/50 with Democrats and because the state of Nebraska awards its EV votes by district, its possible for a Democrat to go win that one EV vote. Obama won it in 2008 but lost it in 2012 when he didn't try. Hillary has spent TV ad money and her SuperPAC has also supported that Omaha TV market. They are seriously trying to take that one EV vote. And now.. how is that playing out? You'd expect the state to be about 5 points BEHIND for Hillary, and she'd be ahead in the Omaha region. Instead, Trump is so toxic, just by Hillary showing up and doing some TV ads in the state, she jumps up to a 3 point lead STATEWIDE... That is AMAZING. This gives us a warning of what may happen in Arizona next, as she brings a far bigger TV ad budget to Arizona now, with that 100,000 dollar TV ad buy. We can also expect Hillary to do an event or two in Arizona.

Which brings me to my third point, which is also about AZ. The Senator race. John McCain should be relatively safe in his re-election. He's not. A brand new local poll has the race exactly even McCain against his opponent, a woman named Kirkpatrick. PPP poll has both at 43%. This before Hillary raises her game. And it being a woman on the Democratic ticket and McCain who has said several times, he will be voting for Trump. I do expect at some point McCain will drop Trump now that the primary race is over, and this Trump speech about the Wall would be a good moment but McCain is loyal to a fault and it will take him very long to abandon Trump. Which means Kirkpatrick and Hillary can pound McCain on that. Again, Hillary doesn't need to win Arizona but if she does, the race is over (same with Georgia). What Hillary DOES need is the Senate to flip, and she'd greatly love to also flip the House. Kicking John McCain out of the Senate would do it. RCP shows the current race for the senate an even race 50/50 (no toss-ups) but gives AZ to McCain. Note even if the Senate is tied, Hillary gets her way in the Senate because the VP gets to break ties in the Senate votes, but that puts everything always in peril. One angry Democrat or independent Senator (haha like Bernie) could wreck anything for the new President. She wants a Senate majority and more than 1 at that. But the smart calculation is, if Hillary can help Kirkpatrick kick out McCain, its worth doing for that reason alone. We may see RCP shift the AZ Senate race in no-tossups in about two weeks, to go to the Democrats and shift the Senate balance to 51/49 driven by Arizona.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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