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« First Concise Draft of Trump-to-English Dictionary (aka ‘Final Final Trump-to-English Wordbook’) | Main | Once Upon a Time in Mexico - Trump Desperate, Tries Miracle Cures to Dead Campaign »

September 01, 2016

Comments

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

An immediate update. The tactical issues of the day, may be totally forgotten by Oct 1 but do seem relevant today..

The schizophrenic Trump. He's spent the last 2 weeks or so trying to sound like a moderate and appeal to minorities. So he said he had 'regrets' while not actually identifying what those were, and then he seemed to want to appeal to blacks and Hispanics, while speaking to lily-white audiences in 95% white neighborhoods but Trump seemed to be trying. And he spoke on the Teleprompter. And it did seem like a mild pivot towards a kinder-gentler Trump. One with messages and messaging driven by the polling insights from Conway.

But where is the Breitbart-Nazi, Bannon? Well, the Arizona Border-Wall speech with the return of the Deportation Force, thats the Nazi side. One, clearly Trump has not settled on a new less abrasive style. Secondly, he's clearly conflicted. Third, there is an internal power struggle (again) in the Campaign - Conway vs Bannon. One of the two is a 'CEO' and the other 'Manager'. One is a woman the other a man. I wonder who will win haha, and who will soon be fired.

Also yeah, Trump is inconsistent. Why? Because he only listens to the last person who spoke to him. So as long as he gets split messaging (like now Bannon/Conway, or in June when it was Lewandowski/Manafort) it will be this circus again for us.

But its entertaining for sure. Haha, the Mexican President already saying he told Trump no of course Mexico won't pay for the wall, and only hours later Trump tells a live audience, Mexico will pay for the wall. How incredibly stupid is this of Trump? He's only making anyone still staying with him seem more ridiculous and inviting all who left Trump - moderate Republicans and foreign policy Republicans - to come out and say that Trump is unhinged.

Pass the popcorn (and another shot of whisky)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Reco

LOL yeah. Hillary just announcing they'll go six-figure TV ad buy in Arizona. That silly Wall Speech is what probably killed Trump's chances in Arizona. And now Hillary has committed the money to the state. She can afford one more state at that level because she pulled out of Virginia and Colorado, I am expecting that to be Georgia in coming days but this Arizona ad buy, its purely the stupid stunt by Trump. He's committing political suicide, and Hillary has decided now she's going for it. I also am curious to see how John McCain plays it - he has just won his primary so he can now safely attack Trump and won't have his right flank vote him out. Meanwhile Arizona Senator challeger to McCain should be tying McCain to Trump. The battleground just got massively worse for Trump and as Hillary is nearly tied in Arizona, she can very well flip the state. That would end Trump's chances..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

sgtrock

Hi, Tomi;

Are you seeing the same race that I'm seeing?

FiveThirtyEight shows Hillary peaked at 79.5% chance of winning on their polls-plus on August 8th. She's had a slow, steady decline ever since. As of today, she's down to 70.0%. When I eyeball the trend line, it looks like it will drop below 50% 4 or 5 days before the election.

RCP is a showing similar narrowing of the lead. Hillary had a 7.6% lead on August 9th. Yesterday she had a 4.1% lead at the end of the day. This morning I woke up to see she has a 3.6% lead.

In other words, looking purely at the trends on these two sites, it would seem that Trump has a winning strategy going. Not sure why because every time he opens his mouth I'm positive he's just lost another 10% of the electorate. Instead, the opposite seems to be true. (shakes head in wonder)

If Hillary is not going to lose and instead is going to outperform the way that your analysis would suggest, she has to have a huge turn around very soon. I'm not sure that Trump ducking the debates or losing badly at them would be enough on their own to give her that boost.

I'm curious to know what you think. What do you think it would take to reach that landslide?

Winter

It is as if Donald does not want to win:

The Daily 202: Trump triples down on a losing immigration position in Phoenix
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2016/09/01/daily-202-trump-triples-down-on-a-losing-immigration-position-in-phoenix/57c78349cd249a6fa9f8207d/

"-- Why was Trump’s tone so much different in Mexico City than Phoenix? Here are the three likeliest explanations:

1. The candidate struggles to weigh conflicting advice. Kellyanne Conway, his new manager, wants him to be softer and gentler so he can improve his standing with women. Steve Bannon, the head of Breitbart who is now his campaign CEO, and Stephen Miller, a former aide to Jeff Sessions, crafted last night’s speech.


2. Like many politicians, he is intentionally trying to be all things to all people. A chameleon in plaid, you might say.

3. Trump is so desperate that he’s willing to try everything. Dana Milbank writes that the trip to Mexico was a “HAIL MARIA,” and only someone who was losing would try it."

Winter

@sgtrock
"In other words, looking purely at the trends on these two sites, it would seem that Trump has a winning strategy going."

The GOP does not think so. See the previous link. They are panicking.

Winter

More on the unpivot on immigration:

Trump’s visa problem: The Donald renews his anti-immigration push — and...
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/01/trumps-visa-problem-the-donald-renews-his-anti-immigration-push-and-the-hypocrisy-is-mind-numbing/?google_editors_picks=true

"That’s a line echoed by dozens, if not hundreds, of Donald Trump’s former employees from virtually every business he’s run. But this one runs afoul of Trump’s signature campaign policy and shows him to be on the wrong side of federal immigration law. I know the bar for Trump is lower than for any presidential candidate in history but surely charges of running an illegal sweatshop exploiting underage girls on tourist visas should garner at least a little attention for the man who promises to put his rival for the presidency in prison?"

grouch

RE: TV air time

It's still a barrage of trump, trump, trump on all broadcast tv (and online publications).

http://television.gdeltproject.org/cgi-bin/iatv_campaign2016/iatv_campaign2016?filter_candidate=&filter_network=AFF&filter_timespan=LAST30&filter_displayas=RAW

Winter

Trump Invested in Safe States, Lagged on Battleground Staff
http://www.newsweek.com/trump-safe-state-spending-494856?google_editors_picks=true

Tester

@sgtrock:

Maybe it's because Trump has had pretty few brainfarts in the last two weeks. Well, that has changed as of today...

The old Donald is clearly back in play now.

sgtrock

@Tester;

Sure looks like it. I see that both 538 and RCP have swung back a little in Clinton's favor in the past couple of hours.

It's just mind boggling to me that the race is as close as it is at this point. As bad as Trump has been, how could any decent person see him as a viable President?

Tester

@sgtrock:

I think the main reason is that Hillary Clinton is the second least liked presidential candidate in a long time. Against any serious opponent I'm sure she'd sink like a stone.

Also have a look at the developments in many European countries where the right wing troglodytes are coming to the surface. A main factor here and there is that many people are thoroughly frustrated with career politicians and grasp at any straw if someone promises to be different.

sgtrock

@Tester;

I have to ask, WHY are they so frustrated? I mean that very seriously. According to Gapminder, the entire planet's population is in far better shape now than it was 10 years ago, 25 years ago, 50 years ago... by any variable that you care to name. (Well, with the single glaring exception of maternal mortality rate in the U.S. where it's been going in the wrong direction since 1980.)

I guess Newt Gingrich was right in one respect. People vote their emotions, not the facts.

Tester

@sgtrock:

"I have to ask, WHY are they so frustrated? I mean that very seriously. According to Gapminder, the entire planet's population is in far better shape now than it was 10 years ago, 25 years ago, 50 years ago...

I agree that it's better than 50 years ago - but 10 years? Sorry, no. I'd say things have been going downhill since 2001, and - oh the irony - the GOP is one of the main reasons for that.

Just a few things people may believe in:

- politicians are selling out to greedy multinational corporations.
- politicians will lie as much as necessary to win the next election.
- most politicians are bought.
- the entire political system is corrupt and rotten to its core.

and so on and so on. The worst thing is, there's a grain of truth in any of these statements, so it's very hard to convince such people to act responsibly.

sgtrock

@Tester;

Remember, the media makes money by drawing in an audience by hyping problems, not by telling the sober, boring truth. I strongly urge you to visit Gapminder.Org and play with any set of variables that you wish. Pick a variable for the X and Y axes, then let the historical record play out. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised. :-)

sgtrock

One other thing that I forgot to say: I am in total agreement that the GOP in general and the Tea Party in particular has been holding back progress in the U.S. We could be a LOT better off if they were willing to govern from facts and not prejudices.

Winter

@sgtrock
"I have to ask, WHY are they so frustrated?"

It is a worldwide phenomenon, going from Denmark to India and from Russia to China to the USA. There are only three intimately linked phenomenons of equal wide ranging spread: market liberalization and globalization where the spoils of these are inequally distributed. We saw the same poisonous mix in the run up of WWI. We know how that ended.

The world is coming closer and closer and the "natives" are not the ruling elite they once thought they were. Note that it is always people who hardly see the "foreigners" that want to exterminate that threat (the proposed solution always comes down to ethnic cleansing).

cornelius

I agree with sgtrock. It looks increasingly likely that there won't be a landslide. I would love to see in 2016 the biggest landslide victory in the history of US elections but it won't happen. The Republicans have managed to damage Clinton a lot. I think her victory will be similar to Obama's 2012 victory. I think Trump will come to the debates more prepared that many of us will expect. There is a good chance that the debates will leave the race mostly unchanged.

A few things about the ground game (I've participated in a few volunteer events here in LA, helping with data entry and building the contact info database). Last Sunday we called Democrats in Nevada. The plan is to call every single registered Democrat in the country. In addition, volunteers from LA are hauled by bus to Nevada to try to talk and convince Nevadans to vote for Clinton. I haven't heard of any trips to Arizona though (yet). I was told that we are going to start calling Republican women soon (that should be fun).
So besides Clinton's paid staff advantage, I think she has an even bigger advantage with volunteers. I doubt the Republican Party and Trump are anywhere near this level of activity that I've seen here in LA. Also the number of offices in a battleground state may be misleading since offices in the neighboring states may play an important role in the battleground states.

Craig

Hi - I just discovered this site yesterday when doing a random Google search. I read the long article breaking down the 2012 Obama vs. Romney GOTV/data operations. What a great read! Has there been anything posted regarding Clinton's operations to date? Thanks.

cornelius

@Craig
Not yet. Clinton could not use Obama's data operations system during the primaries because she was still competing with Sanders (it wouldn't be fair). I think she started building/updating Obama's data operations system only after she became the official nominee. And most likely Clinton won't release any information about the system until after the election, because that information might help Trump.

Millard Filmore

Mrs Trump is forging ahead on the lawsuit about whether or not she was a paid escort.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/melania-trump-daily-mail-suit

Discovery should be a blast!

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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