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« The State of the Race just before the Debate - Polling Summary Trump vs Hillary | Main | Countdown to End of Trump: Six Weeks to go, situation on the day after first Debate »

September 27, 2016

Comments

cornelius

My prediction: Clinton will pick up 2 points and will have a 4 points lead at the end of the week.

Paul

Indeed Drudge & Breibart & co attack more the moderator than Hillary. That says it very clearly that Trump didn't do well in the debate.

I am really curious about some real poles in 2-3 days from now to see the effect of this debate.

Paul

This Was the Trump Hillary Wanted America to See—But Did It Work?

The GOP candidate has defied the ordinary rules all along and still come out on top. He might have in Monday’s debate as well.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/2016-presidential-debate-trump-clinton-214293

Hopefully the don teflon effect is gone!

Tester

@Paul:


"Hopefully the don teflon effect is gone!"


I hope so, too. But let's not forget, that the people that may be turned are not the typical Trump followers. There's probably many who have never seen him act like crazy so a bad performance in the debates may cast some doubt here. I know that a lot of people consider his crazy mode an act and do not take it seriously. What if those suddenly realize that it's not an act but his usual state of mind? I think this is the only way he can be attacked - show that he really is the goon he's constantly putting on display. This debate was the first moment where this becomes a possibility.
Of course this needs to be exploited now with some targeted ads and whatever else works.

Paul

@trumpwin

hahaha...

Tester

Troll is as troll can.

Par for course for Trump supporters. Stupid as ever.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

NOTE - I just added MUCH more to the blog. A whole analysis section to the bottom, easily marked, so pls go first read that addendum, then lets talk (and ignore the trolls, I delete them)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

Early polls coming out. Please ignore online polls, Twitter polls, Facebook polls, because those obviously are based on fans and Trump has his fan base online far larger due to Apprentice etc. But the first two proper polls are out. CNN came out first, they found 62% for Hillary, 27% for Trump (more than 2 to 1, that is crushing victory). PPP has also a poll out which is less dominant but still strong result, 51% for Hillary, 40% for Trump. The PPP poll has some demographics and the two groups I mentioned, women and minorities came strongly for Hillary. Women thought she won 54/36 an 18 point margin. Thats pretty decisive. And minority vote was brutal at 77/13 (includes blacks and Hispanics).

Note at this type of instant polling levels, when people then mull things over and talk with their friends, the dominant positions tend to strengthen. There is no way to spin this as a Trump victory and many who were lukewarm near the middle will then fall into the winner side, ie the Hillary victory opinion will now solidify from these early opinions.

Now, before today only about 6% of the voters were undecided. Only about 20% of voters said they might change their minds (but this debate will reach more than those 20%, Trump was that bad). So yeah, for about a 5 point swing, I expect 1 point comes stolen from Trump, 2 points from a Johnson who has peaked, half a point maybe from Stein and 1.5 points from undecideds to get Hillary in national 4-way polls out around Friday-Saturday at about +7%. And now her team should not 'let' Trump get back into the game anymore, just pound him with ever harder-hitting ads and bring in the big guns now into October (President Obama has said he'll do 2 days of campaigning per week all through October, an unprecedented level of campaigning by a sitting President in the modern era) and so forth.

This debate will have items cut into ads rather quickly, especially those parts where Trump insists he hasn't said something and then with evidence of him saying (or Tweeting) that thing...

Oh, and really bad form by the Trump team - they are now deleting his old Tweets haha... too late !!!

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

Bad, worse, Trump:

Donald Trump Claims He Lost The Debate Because His Mic Was Defective
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/09/27/donald-trump-claims-lost-debate-mic.html

"Everyone could hear exactly what Trump was saying, which is the reason why he lost the debate. The excuses have already begun. There are rumblings in Trump world that Donald should skip the final two presidential debates."

Winter

This is the best evidence yet of how badly Trump lost it:

"Megyn Kelly pointed out that Clinton sliced and diced Trump."

Fox News Is Suicidal After Hillary Clinton Trounced Trump At Presidential Debate
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/09/26/fox-news-suicidal-hillary-clinton-trounced-trump-presidential-debate.html

Winter

@Tomi
"And gosh, the moment I read the second or third Tweet by a woman, right at the start of the debate, about Trump interruptions - I GOT IT.. YES, that makes so much sense. Hillary lets Trump hang himself."

I think you are the only one to point this one out. I do think it is a brilliant strategy you can design when you know your voters and you know your statistics and you know your facts. This is what a well honed specialist data team can buy you. And probably no one notices what is happening.

twinsdad9901

Tomi:
What did you think of Lester Holt's performance? It doesn't look like Trump's team liked him.
I kept watching for your evaluation of Matt Lauer's performance, but never saw it.

Thanks

cornelius

538 has a very interesting article. They compare past debate victories and the bounces they produced.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/

In 1992 Bill Clinton won the debate against George H.W. Bush by more than 35 points and gained 4.1 points after the debate in opinion polls.
In 2012 Romney won the debate by 42 points and gained 4.4 points on Obama after the debate in opinion polls.

So history says that Clinton should get 4 points in opinion polls after winning the debate by 35 points. I still think this will not be the case. The problem with Tomi's approach is that he relies too much on math. In politics math is not an exact science. For Trump 2 + 2 = 5 while for Clinton 2 + 2 = 3
I hope Tomi is wrong and Clinton will gain not 5 but 50 points in the polls. But the dynamics of the race so far led me to believe that Clinton's bounce will be around 2 points.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Winter, twins, cornelius

Winter - I really appreciate that (only one..). Really. Thanks!

twins - on Matt Lauer, didn't do a proper eval of that session as it wasn't a debate. It was consecutive interviews/town halls. But gosh Lauer was rubbish and incredibly biased. He was constantly interrupting Hillary and did that stupid series of questions on emails that killed a third of her time, then on Trump he was all cozy-up and letting Trump ramble on and ignore his questions or limits.

Lester Holt did a passable job in a very tough situation. Few have had Trump in control as moderators, when he's been feisty like he was now. I think Wolf Blitzer did the best when Trump was in this type of mood earlier and even that went into chaos at times. Holt's worst fault was time-keeping. Trump would just steal time and he always gave it, and 20 seconds turned into another minute for Trump etc. Now, from Hillary's point of view, the way Trump was rambling, it honestly DID make sense for her, at times just to kine of step aside, not complain, and let Trump hang himself. But as a moderator, that was his big fault, not taking control of the time and letting Trump do whatever he pleased.

As to the fact-checking, that was a pleasant surprise. I didn't expect him to do it that much (if a tall) and certainly not as forcefully where he several times came back at Trump twice or three times, to drive the point that Trump was factually incorrect (Iraq War issue I think he went 3 times).

The questions themselves I think were very fair and reasonably balanced and quite relevant. I was surprised he took the racial issue in, but that was fresh from the news and it played to Hillary's strengths.

I'd say ok grade but not great. Note the next debate has two moderators and its a town hall setting so questions will come from live audience (but pre-screened questions by the moderators).

I do expect that part of GOP's solution in 2017 to prevent future Trumps is to institute a microphone rule where in GOP debates the mikes are turned off at 15 second past the end of time, so nobody can talk over each other, only when their time comes, and that brings them the required discipline also to learn to stick to 2 minute replies and 1 minute rebuttals. But prevent anyone from 'winning' by this type of childish behavior. Just turn off the mike when the time is done. Can't disrupt anyone, the debate will be far more sane and the audience gets a far better underestanding of what is being said. LEARN to handle the time when you have it, if you want to attack someone. You will need it in the final debates like now, haha, how Hillary did it.

Now as to which team complains about the referees - they are the team that lost haha. Almost as a rule, only the losing side bitches about the moderators in debates.

cornelius - 538 are good, you know that. And you are also good. And your guess is at least as good as mine, we will soon see. What makes your guess also even more likely is that its a 4-way race, so the dynamics are more 'flat' because more candidate, the peaks are lower and thus kind of less points to spread if you go just between 2 of the 4.

I like your math that Trump gets 2+2=5 and Hillary gets 2+2=3. VERY apt. Now, that said, the recent rather pronounced and dramatic shifts in the media from not calling Trump out on lies, to apparently very LOUDLY drawing attention to them - it could be an end to Trump's easy ride and he could have a rough time with the coverage. HE could suffer that 2+2=3 syndrome, while I can't see Hillary really ever getting past 2+2=4 haha.

We'll see soon. Another way to look at it (I like to cheat) is that we kinda know, that a few of the polls were not very good samples, and a few seemed to be far closer to the mark. So its possible the real race today is like the 5% 6% and 4% polls we saw, than the one -5% and one -2% poll plus a few in the middle. With that, the 'reality' on Sunday may have been a race say near 4%. If it THEN gets a 2% bounce like you expect, we're still at 6% haha, almost the 7% I was expecting... And I'd be happy to take that :-)

BUT one other angle. We've never seen a debate this bad at this stage. Gov Rick Perry's Oops debate is the single worst gaffe that ended a political run, but the rest of that DEBATE was not as bad, as a whole debate, as Trump was now. And at the final, Presidential level, not primary race, nobody has stumbled as badly as Trump did. He could fall MORE than that 5% I thought. The Johnson voters were mostly a protest vote (but some are true Libertarians). Stein is partly a protest vote and a strongly anti-Hillary vote, because primarily of the Bernie run. Bernie has been pushing his own peeps to join Hillary. This debate helps them a lot. Johnson has been preaching an anti-Trump message but Johnson is now imploding. They won't want to go 'back' to Trump but Hillary gave a lot of nice openings for moderate Republicans to come to her.

And part of Trump's 'fall in line' loyal Republican vote was there simply because they always vote Republican. SOME of those voters will be devastated and disgusted by what they saw. They'll go have a think, and if their local reliable conservative newspaper also endorses Hillary and a few conservative pundits say that Trump is a moron.. some of those, from the fringes of Trump's support, they will peel off and come to Hillary. She didn't seem like the evil communist monster that some had been painting her out to be.

It could be more. We don't know. You're right, it could be less than 5%. But gosh, she HAS to get some bounce out of that. But we'll see soon :-)

(BTW I have been trolling Trumpsters on Twitter on their hashtag #TrumpWon so much that my fingers now ache from the typing haha)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

grouch

Tomi:

I thought she had him rattled within the first 30 minutes. She went through almost everything you and others here said would annoy the Donald, beginning with calling him "Donald" repeatedly and using his words against him.

Btw:

Last night, Donald Trump lied 16 times to the American people on the presidential debate stage.
http://trumplies.com/fact-checking-donald-trump-in-the-first-presidential-debate/

grouch

During the debate, I kept in contact with my mid-30s son whose interest in news begins and ends with sports. Texts I got from him during the first half hour of the debate:
"He stumbled and said the exact opposite of what he meant about tax cuts."
"Quit letting him have 5 minutes during his 2 minute slot."
"He's the wallace character off coweta county." [Referencing John Wallace claiming people would believe anything he told them on the witness stand, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_in_Coweta_County ]

grouch

(I'm still catching up).

Donald kept taking Hillary's comments and adopting them as his own -- the no-fly list, infrastructure, nukes (when previously he said 'terror' was number one world problem). My impression was he's got nothin'.

grouch

My apology if someone has already posted this; I'm still not caught up.

The first Trump-Clinton presidential debate transcript, annotated
By Aaron Blake and Team Fix
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/26/the-first-trump-clinton-presidential-debate-transcript-annotated/

grouch

Ok, I know Tomi likes facts and figures to back up any claims made, and I asserted above that Hillary had Donald rattled within the first 30 minutes. So, referencing the transcript linked previously and making use of [ ]...

[Hillary's first words into the mic:]

CLINTON: How are you, Donald?

---
[Winter, Paul or somebody on here pointed out a long time ago that he hates being called Donald by lesser beings. So, near the very end of her opening statements:]

CLINTON: [...] Donald, it's good to be with you. [...]

---
[And in her response to Donald's answer to the first question of the debate:]

CLINTON: [...] And the kind of plan that Donald has put forth would be trickle-down economics all over again. [...]
I call it trumped-up trickle-down, because that's exactly what it would be. [...]

---
[Another thing Tomi and several others have pointed out that annoys the Donald is to question his wealth and his fantasy of his humble beginnings with a "small loan" from his father. So, also in that first response to Donald:]

CLINTON: [...] You know, Donald was very fortunate in his life, and that's all to his benefit. He started his business with $14 million, borrowed from his father, and he really believes that the more you help wealthy people, the better off we'll be and that everything will work out from there. [...]

---
[Think she was already getting under his skin? See how he responds:]

TRUMP: Well, for one thing -- and before we start on that -- my father gave me a very small loan in 1975, and I built it into a company that's worth many, many billions of dollars, with some of the greatest assets in the world, and I say that only because that's the kind of thinking that our country needs.

---
[Then Lester comes in with another annoyance y'all told me about -- the Dumpster hates to be interrupted:]

TRUMP: [...]And why hasn't she made the agreements better? The NAFTA agreement is defective. Just because of the tax and many other reasons, but just because of the fact...

HOLT: Let me interrupt just a moment, but...

[The question was how do you bring back manufacturing jobs, not about NAFTA.]

---
[Then back to Hillary poking the beast with a stick:]

CLINTON: [...] In fact, Donald was one of the people who rooted for the housing crisis. He said, back in 2006, "Gee, I hope it does collapse, because then I can go in and buy some and make some money." Well, it did collapse.

TRUMP: That's called business, by the way.

CLINTON: Nine million people -- nine million people lost their jobs. Five million people lost their homes. And $13 trillion in family wealth was wiped out.

---
[And more of his own words against him, in that same response:]

CLINTON: [...] Donald thinks that climate change is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese. I think it's real.

TRUMP: I did not. I did not. I do not say that.

CLINTON: I think science is real.

TRUMP: I do not say that.

CLINTON: And I think it's important that we grip this and deal with it, both at home and abroad.

---
[Donald was set up very quickly. He was pissed off. I believe this early poking and prodding was exactly why he got worse throughout the debate.]

Winter

A man as easily played as was shown in the debate here will beplayed even worse when in the Oval Office.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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