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« Countdown to the End of Trump: 7 Weeks. Its tight. Hillary up by one point nationally and Trump has 2 of 4 states he needs to win | Main | The Lumberjack Song? Isn't Monty Python's Classic Just Begging to be Reworded for Trump's I'm The President and I'm OK? »

September 23, 2016

Comments

steve

She is going to get him on ignorance of his own party.
He doesn't know the R governors, nor the Congress and Senate R committee chairs by heart.

He had no clue that Jeff Flake in AZ was not even running this year when he threatened him.

He doesn't even know the map of DC well enough to know where the Cabinet officers work.


Just hammering him on Putin liking him is a winner.

Good post...only a 2 cuppah.... ;)

s/

Millard Filmore

@Tomi: "imagine Trump charging Hillary with fists raised so angry he might punch her"

If the Secret Service needs to step between Trump and Hillary, hmmmm, I wonder how Fox and Breitbart will spin that.

grogxd

typo: "The 3-way race of 1982"

If the moderators do their work Hillary should not have any problems, otherwise I can see people thinking that Trump won because he spoke louder all the time.

Makinen

@Tomi

Typo => it should be "practice" and not "practise" thru all the post!

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi grogxd - thanks! corrected

Makinen - gosh, do I have to go practice my practice spelling? Wait, isn't practise one of those that has a British and US spelling that allows the S or the C. I don't remember. I blame... OBAMA !!!

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Makinen

@Tomi

In the main varieties of English from outside North America, practice is the noun, and practise is the verb. There is no such distinction in American English, where practice is both a noun and a verb, and practise is not used at all.

Makinen

This is really good post of Tomi!

I would add that the tendency of Trump to talk over and interrupt should be seen also as a weakness because when Trump does it is because he is half-angry (or in vulnerable position). Therefore Hillary must find some kind of trick to amplify Trump's half-angry to full blown angry when he does the interruption. A trick might be to ask some kind response from audience when Trump does that.

Winter

The Onion gives an inside view on Hillary's debate preparation:

http://www.theonion.com/article/blindfolded-clinton-invites-debate-coaches-to-atta-53988

paul

Inside Hillary Clinton’s debate prep

Several Democrats .. tell POLITICO that the main person playing the role of interlocutor ...was campaign chairman John Podesta, a sharp-tongued veteran operator known less for bluster than behind-the-curtain scheme-spinning. The wiry Podesta is quick on his feet, and is famous for a lashing tongue when angry.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/hillary-clinton-debate-prep-228558

4 Things To Watch In The First Debate For Hillary Clinton

http://www.npr.org/2016/09/23/495077610/4-things-to-watch-in-the-first-debate-for-hillary-clinton

paul

This might work against Trump

Between Two Ferns With Zach Galifianakis: Hillary Clinton

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrkPe-9rM1Q

paul

It looks like that the more damaging ads against Trump start to show up

New Clinton ad shows girls looking in mirror as Trump insults women
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-women-ad/

Winter

Trump has an easy solution to the debate challenge: Use a prompter like Bush fils the lesser did.

http://www.salon.com/2004/10/09/bulge/

Trump always hires "The Best", so he will do so this time, I think.

Winter

As Tomi writes:

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump Take Different Approaches to First Debate Prep
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-presidential-debates/clinton-trump-take-different-approaches-first-debate-prep-n652726

Halibut_ter

Shutting up trump?
I'd do a detroit paster theme, walk up to him, touch him on the shoulder and say, "It was my time at the mic, mister"
treat him like the 12 year old toadie that he is.

Winter

Pierson is at it again. At least media people are wising up:

Jake Tapper Shuts Down Katrina Pierson: 'That Has Never Happened in the History of the World'
http://www.mediaite.com/online/jake-tapper-shuts-down-katrina-pierson-that-has-never-happened-in-the-history-of-the-world/

Winter

Trump is willing to make money off everything:

Donald Trump Made $1.6 Million Off the Secret Service
http://fortune.com/2016/09/23/donald-trump-secret-service/

Wayne Borean


Ted Cruz has jumped the shark. Yes, he is now endorsing Donald J. Trump.

This is a really odd move, and shows none of the ideological firmness Ted Cruz has told us to expect from him. It makes him look all wishey washey.

Wayne Borean


@paul

That sort of add will help drive turnout from women. It points out the problems with Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton does not have those problems, in fact for women Hillary Clinton will be the greatest President ever. Obama hasn't been a bad president for women, but he won't be as good as Clinton will be.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Wayne

The Ted Cruz story shows incredibly bad judgment. Cruz knows better than anyone else that Trump was vulnerable in debates especially one-on-one. Cruz wanted Trump to debate just alone, so he could try to destroy Trump.

Cruz has already all the baggage of being against Trump. Joining the Trump train NOW, after being against Trump at the Convention, means Cruz had already taken the heat. A few days would not ever matter at this stage. But consider the very simple possibilities.

Trump may suffer in the debate. If so, MORE Republicans on the fence will abandon Trump and Cruz would have cover to stay out - and Cruz would be one of the 'heroes' who stood firm, with integrity (like John Kasich).

Trump may do well in debate - then join on TUESDAY. Cruz would have perfect excuse - Trump was strong in debate, hence he finally came onboard. Since Cruz was going to be ridiculed from abandoning his position anyway, then at least do it when there is some cover for his clear political convenience.

Instead - if Trump wins the election, Cruz was one of the last to join. His advantage minimal and he won't get to run in 2020 anyway because Trump would be running for re-election.

But if Trump loses the election, Cruz now lost his leadership position for 2020 - and he would be one of the LAST to join, right before Trump's ship sank. And he'll just look supremely calculating and unprincipled when the time comes to see who was where.

Bad timing. I think after Cleveland his best bet was always to stay out. Now he did all that for this humiliation in the end? Silly. And the TIMING could not be worse.

If it goes as I think it does, Cruz will be the last big name who ever joined Trump before the rats start to sink the ship. He will be seen as having truly horrid judgment. He'll get none of the benefit of Cleveland but all the harm of Trump. This will severely harm Cruz's chances for 2020 (good news for Rubio and Kasich).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi paul & Wayne

Let me illustrate what the woman vote problem looks like for the election and to pollsters.

Lets say Trump ends with 15% gender gap (biggest its ever been) and male vote was 50/50 (remember that includes blacks & latino men now averaging out with whites for 50/50 men). Also to keep the math simple, lets assume only 2 candidates.

If the voter turnout is 50/50 men & women. And men vote 50/50 but women vote with 15% gender gap as measured in recent polls, it means women vote 57.5% to 42.5% for Hillary vs Trump. Nationally, easy math, Hillary wins by 7.5% (again, remember I'm now simplifying without third parties to illustrate just the polling & turnout problem).

So if men & women vote evenly, and Hillary gets a 15% gender gap, then her victory margin is 7.5% nationally.

But women vote more than men. So exactly same scenario as above, but now move the proportion to reflect normal voting, ie women vote 3% more than men. Still keep 15% gender gap. I've just mathematically shifted the totals so it still results in a gender gap of 15% but now total vote is 51.5% women voting and 48.5% men voting. Hillary's total margin remains the same, 7.5% but now we have the absolute numbers to reflect the reality that women vote more than men. So in total numbers are:

29.5% of all votes were women for Hillary, 24.25% were men for Hillary = 53.75% Total
22.0% of all votes were women for Trump, 24.25% were men for Trump = 46.25% Total

To give us the numbers to compared, lets change that to ACTUAL voters in millions. Lets say its 130 million votes. So now the above percentages become:

38.4M women vote for Hillary, 31.5M men = 69.9M tot votes (53.75%)
28.6M women vote for Trump, 31.5M men = 63.1M tot votes (46.25%)

This would be measurable by polling and depends on how we allocate the proportion of female vote based on polls. But what if there is a female surge that hits almost exclusively only the woman and boosts her, against the man. Lets now use those exact voter numbers and only provide a 10% surge of female vote. And put the total surge only for hillary. So we add obviously 7M votes all for women for Hillary.

45.4M women vote for Hillary, 31.5M men = 76.9M total votes (56.1%)
28.6M women vote for Trump, 31.5M men = 63.1M tot votes (43.9%)

Men stay the same, women are 10% extra. But the women's vote now goes all to Hillary. A 10% turnout jump in only women would mean an ACCURATELY measured 7.5% poll equals 12.2% final election result !!!

Because any female surge would come almost exclusively only for Hillary, it totally destroys the election - AND it messes up the polling. But how can you measure that? Those women will give a 'normal' uncertain opinion of whether to vote or not. Like any uncertain voter any normal year. Only this year, when a man says he's possibly voting, he also is only possibly voting, but when a woman says she is possibly voting, it ends up she's quite likely voting in the last moment.. Because there is a woman on the ticket and because its the first time.

This is the biggest 'unmeasurable' in this election. I thought we'd have two - if Hillary had picked a Hispanic VP we'd have a second such strong surge vote but now we only get something close to 'normal' growth in Hispanic vote because of demographic shifts, not a particular surge like the black vote was for Obama in 2008. But this will CERTAINLY happen with women. Now, ads like the 'girls' ad will help drive up this female surge. It will ALSO drive up the gender GAP. But note, in this above example when we do the math, the gender gap has already gone ballistic (because the surge only went to one side) so instead of the measured 15% we get 22.6% gender gap).

So that is what this female vote is about. It will go almost exclusively to Hillary and that 'normally not sure to vote' type of voter that every pollster has to mathematically estimate, in any other year behaves 'normally' and can be caught by good statisticians, but this year, an unprecedented moment happens like first iPhone or first phablet Galaxy Note. And that messes up the forecast.

I am 100% certain there will be a female surge, the problem is, nobody knows how big. But yes, a 10% increase in female vote over what is normal when more than 90% of that goes to Hillary, means a 7.5% election accurately measured election poll turns into and actual 12.2% election RESULT.

And no pollster can accurately measure that before it has happened the first time. And this phenomenon will diminish into Hillary's second election in 2020 and then almost vanish in future elections but is likely to persist (but in ever diminishing size) into those elections when one side nominates a woman and the other side a man, for even a few election cycles into the future.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

@scott: What is it about Trump that you like and admire?

What in Trump's history leads you to believe that your life will be better after a Trump presidency?

sgtrock

January 31st, 2016: Tomi calls Trump wins the nomination:

"My Forecast on Republican Race One Day Before First State Votes: Trump Wins Nomination, Clinches on June 7, Gets 53% of Delegates, Cruz second, Rubio third

So we are now one day before the first state votes in the US Presidential nomination fights. So I'll do my forecast. Bear in mind that its four months and a week to this race and a week is a long time in politics. Any one debate can tumble the race and there usually are all sorts of issues. But I do think Trump is now a very likely winner. So I wanted to try a total-race forecast, just for the fun of it. So here goes. I predict Trump wins the nomination (not that brave) but that Trump also secures the nomination outright with enough delegates that he will not face a deadlocked convention. I predict Trump takes 53% of the delegates. He clinches the race on June 7, the last day. I predict Cruz comes in second with 32% of the delegates, Rubio finishes third with 11% and Jeb Bush (yes) comes in fourth with 4% of the delegates. Trump wins 39 states and regions, Cruz gets 13, Rubio 3 and Jeb wins one region (Puerto Rico)."

sgtrock

Sorry, forgot the URL:

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2016/01/my-forecast-on-republican-race-one-day-before-first-state-votes-trump-wins-nomination-clinches-on-ju.html

Tomi T Ahonen

No Scott

You do not get to pull that stunt on this blog. At that time that was what everybody said. I was in no way an outlier thinking in July that Trump can't win.

This blog was LITERALLY one of the first to point out - in AUGUST of last year - that Trump actually CAN win.

You do not come here and shit on my parade. I called the Republican nomination race as close to perfect as is humanly possible in January before any state had voted. There is NOBODY who published an election forecast for the primary race more accurate than me

So I deleted all your bullshit comments

If you want to post out of reasonable analysis feel free. Don't pull that shit here.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

sgtrock

@scott;

I see a lot of assertions about how Trump will be good for the country. Can you point me at a source that tells me exactly how Trump will do any of those things?

Thanks,

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Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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