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« Debate Review: Hillary wins by points, Trump fell towards the end - EXPANDED with analysis & conclusion: Election was won in this debate | Main | Blow-by-Blow Analysis of the Decisive Moment of the Debate - through the eyes of a former debate coach »

September 27, 2016

Comments

cornelius

Here is Trump's sniff movie. Enjoy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wd_ZITiiKs

Tester

The user comments for this video are the icing on the cake. Too bad that 'normal' people will never see this stuff... :(

cornelius

@Tester
Well, so far the video got almost 40,000 views. If we spread the word, then more people get to see it. Like for example twitter users that have a lot of followers. Do we have such people in the house?

Paul

It really looks like Trump has hard times to grasp what he did wrong in the debate, especially regarding minorities and women. He is a racist and he just does not know what minorities like to hear for example. Therefore I think that the next debates will be more or less like the first one, that is Trump trying very hard to look calm and presidential but still being a bully, racist, and tone deaf to minorities and women. This only in case that Trump will show up to the debates!

Anyway, reading the press it looks like the right wing press ranges from Trump loosing the debate and losing votes to having hard time explaining how this debate loss gains him more votes (excluding those articles which are based on those useless internet polls which attract 90% of Trump fans).

grogxd

I Muted Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton During the Debate. I Still Knew the Score.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/28/us/politics/trump-clinton-debate-body-language.html

Winter

@Paul
"... the right wing press ranges from Trump loosing the debate and losing votes to having hard time explaining how this debate loss gains him more votes"

Why is the Trump press screeming that they are winning while the polls are saying otherwise? At the same time, the Hillary camp is mum about winning. If anything, the Hillary camp is saying they might lose.

This suggests that both camps are affraid their supporters might stay home. Which again would tell us that the Trump camp fears their voters won't show up vecause they do not believe they can win anymore, while the Hillary camp fears their voters do not believe they can lose anymore.

Winter

Trump's performance has brought out ALL of his mysogyni over times. And that will be spread out over the country:

Donald Trump's trouble with women -- an incomplete list
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/27/politics/donald-trump-women-problems/

grouch

Endorsement: Hillary Clinton is the only choice to move America ahead
Editorial board, The Republic

Since The Arizona Republic began publication in 1890, we have never endorsed a Democrat over a Republican for president. Never. This reflects a deep philosophical appreciation for conservative ideals and Republican principles.

This year is different.

The 2016 Republican candidate is not conservative and he is not qualified.

That’s why, for the first time in our history, The Arizona Republic will support a Democrat for president.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/editorial/2016/09/27/hillary-clinton-endorsement/91198668/

paul

@Winter

> Why is the Trump press screeming that they are winning
> while the polls are saying otherwise?

Because it is their job to do that. Also Trump press mostly screams that they are winning the elections but do NOT screams that Trump has won the debate. That is a slight difference.

It really looks like Trump does not even realize that he has a problem with women. That makes it really difficult for him to even start adjusting his position on women. This women problem of Trump and Clinton's strategy on playing women cards is invisible even to many of the political commentators because most of them are men. Even Tomi has almost partially missed it in the very very beginning (when he did the very first debate review). BUT the women were very very fast on detecting it. See, for example, Megyn Kelly who said immediately after the debate that Trump was "sliced and diced" by Hillary.

Tester

Reading such an article from a conservative newspaper really, really hurts. I wonder how such a thing my influence voters, especially because Arizona is such a critical state.

Oh, and in other news, we got another troll who just proves again the braindeadness of Trump supporters...

@Winter:

"Why is the Trump press screeming that they are winning while the polls are saying otherwise? At the same time, the Hillary camp is mum about winning. If anything, the Hillary camp is saying they might lose."

There's nothing worse than gloating before the election, that has already cost may candidates a victory. The Clinton camp is wise to remain subdued and do business as usual. Let Trump act like the sore loser he is, right now it can only do some harm to him.

As for Trump, he just continues his strategy of being the loudest, most annoying candidate ever. The real question here is, how many of his potential supporters will get their senses together right before giving their vote, because they essentially know that he's nothing more than a pompous gasbag and wouldn't hand control over to him. I think that's the biggest wildcard in this election. Hillary, appearing sane and controlled certainly will have far less voters second-guessing their choice at the last second, for Trump I am not so sure. This may also skew the polls a bit but who knows by how much?

Stephen Reed

Tomi,

I expect that you have discarded your dream of a Hillary Clinton landslide that carries the US Senate and House.

I continue to believe that Trump will not only win the general election, but that his coattails will ensure Republican control of the US Senate and House.

Your debate analysis and its polling predictions are a falsifiable hypothesis. Should Trump obtain a sustained lead in the 4-way RCP presidential poll average, then your debate predictions would be obviated, and your analysis of the debate play-by-play would be then suspect.

One tiny bit of evidence in my favor is the USC/LAT Daybreak panel daily tracking poll, which at 3AM ET, September 28, showed a modest bump for Trump. As the reported figures are a 7 day moving average, should the spread continue to increase in favor of Trump, then one could reasonably conclude that the September 26 debate moved a pursuable portion of the panel towards Trump.

--------

I hope that sometime next year we can begin discussing what it would take to manufacture mobile devices and all their component parts here in the USA, when a possible President Trump puts his protectionist trade policies in effect. Would you have any idea how many Chinese workers are employed in the total supply chain for mobile devices exported to the USA?

Winter

@Stephen
"I hope that sometime next year we can begin discussing what it would take to manufacture mobile devices and all their component parts here in the USA, when a possible President Trump puts his protectionist trade policies in effect."

Uf Trump wins, I think most of us will have more pressing concerns than the mobile industry. Say, keeping alive?

grouch

The Arizona Republic doesn't go far enough. Today's "republicans" are not fiscally conservative and wouldn't recognize a principle if it bit them in the hind-parts. They are fiscally incompetent and irreponsible, wasting millions of taxpayer dollars on political witch-hunts, wasting millions by holding government hostage to score political points with fanatical religious extremists, and racking up record deficits and debts to benefit wealthy donors.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Federal_Debt_1901-2010.png

http://www.theocracywatch.org/

http://crooksandliars.com/paul-rosenberg/both-sides-do-it-differently-scanda

http://politicsthatwork.com/graphs/income-growth-parties-middle-class

Winter

@grouch
"Today's "republicans" are not fiscally conservative and wouldn't recognize a principle if it bit them in the hind-parts."

[RANT]
I think you miss a fundamental point. I have found that the proverb: "People get the government they deserve" is very true. The reason Republican party and politicians are so corrupt is that their voters are that corrupt. They really WANT their representatives to bend and break the rules because they want their representatives to break the rules when it suits their own wishes. They do not care for any principle apart from their own private faith.

So they want the USA to leave NATO, default on debt, and plunge into a crisis because they really do not care what happens to their compatriots or the rest of the world. If you want to look into the mind of the Tea Party activists and fundagelicals, just look to Syria and Iraq. That is the kind of country they would build for themselves. And The Donald is just the candidate to build that country for them.
[/RANT]

Tester

@grouch:

That may be true and those people cannot be converted. But remember: Arizona is very tight at the moment so if this can turn even a tiny fraction of potential Trump voters in that state it may be enough.

grouch

Hillary Clinton laid a surprisingly intricate trap for Donald Trump, and he blundered into it
Updated by Matthew Yglesias

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/9/27/13079878/alicia-machado-trap

---

The author writes about the Miss Universe-turned-voter trap, similar to that part of Tomi's post-debate analysis regarding Hillary working to get Hispanic and undecided women voters stirred to action. It's a nicely detailed article about that trap.

Now consider (if you're brave enough to venture into a self-described "snark mob"):

Counterpoint: Trump Lost, But Only Because He Hung Himself From His Own Dick
By Alex Ruthrauff

http://wonkette.com/607005/counterpoint-trump-lost-but-only-because-he-hung-himself-from-his-own-dick

"But she won because Trump blew it so comprehensively that it would have been shocking if it hadn’t been Donald Trump doing the blowing.

"And let’s be honest. The first 20 minutes were not good for her. She sounded too scripted, which contrasted poorly with Trump’s more conversational style, and right out of the gate she took a hammering on trade."

---

Did I watch a different debate? Or have neither of the above authors ever been fishing with light tackle?

The entire debate looked to me like watching a very skilled angler hook, play and land a big 'hog' with tackle made for bluegill.

She baited and teased the Donald (see transcript portions posted in comments to Tomi's "Debate Review" article) to get him stirred up, threw out all that chum in her opening about infrastructure, manufacturing, small business, renewable energy, wealthy fair share, etc., etc. and he hit the lure. She tugged the line every time she spoke to keep him goaded into running and wearing himself out on her line, her bait. When he was ranting word salad and unforced lies, she let him run. When he seemed to calm down a bit, she'd tug a bit and spur him into jumping and running again. Then, right at the end, she dragged his carcase onto the bank, leaving him gaping and floundering and flopping around.

Try going through the transcript or video with that in your head. It'll become a different debate. :)

grouch

Winter:

Sadly true. "Behind every sleazy lawyer is a sleazy client." That scales up and down.

Tester:

I certainly hope Arizona flips. Tomi nailed so many things in the smartphone wars that it gives me hope for the predictions for this election. The world doesn't deserve the punishment of a dumpster presidency.

Tester

@grouch:

To be perfectly blunt, the USA fully deserve him. But it's the rest of the world that does not. Yet another megalomaniac gaining power could bring the world to the brink of destruction.

If he was just the lone looney in the Republican bin I also wouldn't worry, if both parties united he'd be gone in no time. But as things stand, Trump is just the result of 8 years of utterly irresponsible politics and by now the party is dominated by the same type of insaniacs.

Who knows what this nuthouse collection can do? It's a given that it'll be nothing good. And once the genuine conservatives, who want nothing of this insanity, will realize that their party had been subverted by hostile elements, it'd be too late and we have another Nazi Reich on our hands.


What's scary is that the entire press today is again only about Trump. He gets so much coverage that I fear that the debate's effects will be gone in a few days. It's as if the people only have that one choice and could decide between 'no' and 'yes'. And with such a selection of options 'yes' will always win.

Winter

@Tester
"He gets so much coverage that I fear that the debate's effects will be gone in a few days."

I suspect the Clinton campaign thinks they cannot change voters preferences. But they CAN change whether people will go out and vote.

The can make potential Trump voters feel ashamed and disgusted by his behavior and stay home and at the same time they can energize potential Hillary voters to register and go voting. That is how a landslide is made.

And the elaborate trap of the Miss Universe-turned-voter story is perfect for this aim. It also gives us a peek into this extremely sophisticated campaign organization. They predicted that Trump would bite, and bite hook line and sinker, and had all the stories and broadcasts ready. Maybe they had a few others waiting in line. And the Trumpists cannot even claim "a conspiracy". He admitted everything and doubled down on it. He did it all to himself.

But really, this is very sophisticated campaign strategy.

paul

New Debate Strategy for Donald Trump: Practice, Practice, Practice

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/us/politics/donald-trump-debate.html

As expected, Donald's debate prep was a total mess.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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