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« Countdown to End of Trump: Six Weeks to go, situation on the day after first Debate | Main | Blackberry Bites the Dust - Yeah, we saw that one coming a LONG time ago »

September 29, 2016

Comments

paul

One of the deadliest arguments, which is worth mentionineg, in the debate was the throw of Alicia Machado, the winner of the beauty pageants contest. Trump was totally caught off guard with that. Trump said to Hillary "Where did you find this?". This allowed Hillary following the debate a two-days attack on Trump regarding being a male chauvinist pig. That was a beautiful argument!

grouch

When she started talking about Miss Universe, it was the one time when she did not hush as the dumpster interrupted and simply continued talking over him to get Alicia Machado's name into the recording. Dealing with the bullies at home, indeed.

All those times allowing him to just rant after interrupting, with, at best, a couple of words spoken as loudly as his. I kept watching for the tactic that Tomi assured us before the debate that she would have worked out to deal with interruptions. She just let him run on and smiled. I thought the sole purpose was to just let people see the spoiled brat in action. That final trap made the whole thing snap into focus. I wonder if there were women cheering as Hillary raised her voice over dumpster's spewage -- "Donald, she has a name."

cornelius

@paul
I've already mentioned this in the other thread but now that you mention Alicia Machado, today (Wednesday) was "women calling women day" across the US at all call centers working for Clinton's campaign. I think this is not a coincidence. Can you image this level of coordination over at Trump's?

In other news Gary Johnson is riding into the sunset at full speed. At a recent interview he could name not even one foreign political leader. He is worse than Rick Perry. At least Perry could mention two items. And this is not the first time Johnson has this type of oops moment. I think Johnson just snatched the Captain Opps crown from Perry.

paul

Samantha Bee highlights Donald Trump's biggest, dumbest debate mistake

http://theweek.com/speedreads/651883/samantha-bee-highlights-donald-trumps-biggest-dumbest-debate-mistake

cornelius

I forgot the link

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/us/politics/gary-johnson-aleppo-moment.html

(I think I just had a Johnson moment)

paul

The best part of Alicia Machado part is that the answer to Trump's question "Where did you find this?" is that in Trump's book, where Trump mentioned it.

Daktari

Excellent debate recap and review. Thanks, Tomi.

grouch

Tomi:

Regarding the questions, Lester Holt said this in his intro:

"The questions are mine and have not been shared with the commission or the campaigns. The audience here in the room has agreed to remain silent so that we can focus on what the candidates are saying."

In the comments following your previous article, grogxd posted a link to The Atlantic. That story has the only reference I've seen in the press about the get out the vote tech. It's a single paragraph and is more tease than informative. Is this the end user part of that big data machine you've talked about?

Is This the Year Arizona Turns Blue?
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/arizona-election-2016/501569/

"The canvassers get direction on which houses to hit from their iPhones, which have an app version of the Democratic database tool VAN installed. (It’s called, naturally, MiniVAN.) After each knock, they record the appropriate response—yes, no, mail ballot, not home, moved—which syncs to the cloud."

grouch


The Daily 202: Trump stumbles into Clinton’s trap by feuding with Latina beauty queen

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2016/09/28/daily-202-trump-stumbles-into-clinton-s-trap-by-feuding-with-latina-beauty-queen/57eb0230e9b69b0ec0c0a85d/?tid=pm_politics_pop_b

"The GOP nominee’s decision to take the bait and rehash his past attacks of a former Miss Universe for gaining too much weight is now dominating the conversation."

paul

@cornelius

Mr. Stamina (a.k.a Trump) cannot learn about debating and politics until the next debate. There is no way on earth that he can do that. Of course that we will learn some catchy lines, he will learn to avoid some traps BUT still he will not be able to avoid the tons of traps which Hillary will have set for him. The only way to avoid all these for Mr. Stamina is to skip all the future debates. Of course he will be called chicken and so on but at least he will not damage himself anymore in front of the undecided voters. Do not get me wrong, though I personally want that Mr. Stamina goes to all debates with Hillary and the he will get sliced and diced (as Megyn Kelly said) every single time by Hillary.

Winter

Note that Hillary had ads and interviews ready for broadcast and publishing right after the debate:

http://www.adweek.com/news/advertising-branding/hillary-clinton-releases-powerful-new-ad-former-miss-universe-alicia-machado-173736

http://www.politico.com/media/story/2016/09/after-debate-cosmo-guardian-us-rushed-to-publish-dueling-alicia-machado-profiles-004785

paul

Hillary Clinton was the matador to Donald Trump's bull in first presidential debate

84 million TV viewers — the largest presidential debate audience ever — watched Donald Trump get all flustered and act like a raging bull. I credit Hillary Clinton’s bright red suit.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-sac-skelton-presidential-debate-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-20160929-snap-story.html

So, maybe even the bright red suit was part of Hillary strategy to annoy Trump?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

Well, its now back to normal for two weeks. And we have plenty going on. First off. Whats Mr Trump: Political Genius doing with his time? The most precious resource of any campaign? Is the Trumpster in Florida? Is the Trumpomon in Ohio. Is the Trumpomonster in Pennsylvania? No. He was in Wisconsin, and he heads to... Michigan. These are two states he will not win. They are yes borderline battlegrounds but he is BEHIND. He just LOST the first debate. He has 40 days left. And two of those days were just struck off the calendar. Trump threw away 2.5% of the most valuable resource he has.

Donald J Trump: Political Genius.

Meanwhile Michelle Obama, in Pennsylvania. Joe Biden is in Pennsylvania. Bernie Sanders is in New Hampshire. Bill Clinton is in Ohio. He was scheduled to go to Florida but now with Shimon Perez's funeral, Bill cancelled and flies to Israel. President Obama did a TV event for Hillary. Its not just that Hillary and Tim Kaine are hitting the battleground states, they have a vast array of their surrogates on the road, also in those states.

Yeah. One team plays smart and the other team plays kindergarden.

Ok then what about endorsements. So one of the most famous recent Republican Senators, John Warner of Virginia endorsed Hillary. And a bunch more newspapers endorse her (and one always-Republican newspaper snubbed Trump by endorsing Johnson). So far, Trump has ZERO, count it ZERO newspaper editorial endorsements. Now, few people decide anymore because of newspaper endorsements but most loyal readers of a given newspaper will read that endorsement. Its not going well for the Orangeman. Oh and there was again some old Bushie admin guy again who endorsed Hillary.

So then palace intrigue. Trump campaign leaking (bad sign) that there is in-fighting (bad sign) that Trump KIDS angry at Campaign leadership that they put Trump into that debate unprepared (this is usually the prelude for someone getting fired). They ALSO worry that Trump's properties suffer in value as a consequence (GOOD !!!) Yeah, I think it could be Conway, it could be Bannon, it could be.. both.

Hey, then that mysterious Bossie superduper filthy-nasty attack 'swift boat' attack? That big 140 million dollar ad buy has started running and .. its just normal Trumpian nonsense ads of no real consequence. They're not even good political ads as such. Are they holding for the big push for its optimal timing, or is that Bossie attack not ready yet, or have they maybe shot down the idea. Lets keep monitoring that space.

BUT Trump was so 'gentlemanly' not to push the stories about Bill Clinton's infidelity in the actual debate, how magnainmous of him - but now the campaign HAS told the surrogates to push the stories in THEIR TV interviews. Yeah, sleazebag stuff. Typical of Trump wanting to have his cake and eat it too.

Talking about Trumpian lunacy - someone mentioned it in the comments already, gosh, that former Miss Universe girl? Trump is FEUDING WITH HER.

In what f*cking universe is that a good idea? It wastes his time and ever shrinking ability to control the news cycle. It PERPETUATES the story that Trump is a sexist - and clearly also he has a problem with overweight people - well, that was one group he had not yet insulted or offended. And it keeps that whole women anger going past the debate. Trump is tone-deaf. He has no sane voice RUNNING his campaign, which would have the balls to tell Mr Trump - this you have to stop now. STOP IT NOW. And a voice that Trump can trust and will obey. Obviously he is totally unhinged and now doing really dumb stuff. I'd say he's doing dumb sh*t.

Well, then talk about a bad job - the Campaign is considering hiring a paid full-time debate coach for now (haha) to help with prep for the next debate in two weeks. Yeah good luck with that, whoever schmuck takes that hopeless task. Make sure you get paid in advance!

But just as it can't get more weird, at an event in Iowa, Trump asked who was in the audience who was NOT a conservative Christian. Some hands went up. Trump asked the audience if they should be allowed to stay. Gosh this is so three-steps-from-Hitler right now. So Trump's current logic says, the way to win this sucker is with racial and religious purity. Yeah. Why not just roll out the Swastikas and start with the Heil Trump salutes?

Haha Trump Campaign sent an angry memo to surrogates insisting they all must now claim Trump won the debate (based on what?)

So on the debate itself, Google reports that 2 million watched the live YouTube stream so the total audience was more than 86 million, with 84 million TV networks and 2 million just in YouTube (plus misc other online streams).

Not sure if I mentioned this before, but meanwhile Johnson seems determined to end his run. He had another Aleppo moment. He was asked to name a fave foreign leader and could not think of one. Yeah. Smoking too much pot sometimes does that to your brain haha...

Oh, and Chris Engel one of the major foreign correspondents on NBC mentioned in an interview his second biggest concern after the debate, from a foreign policy expert's point of view (first being nuke war) that Trump wants to launch a Mafia-style extortion racket internationally. To squeeze money out of US allies and friends, and threaten to take away their various treaty obligations that have stood for decades. Yeah we had that discussion forever-ago, but yeah, Trump did now suggest this in the main debate and clearly Trump has not abandoned his pet idea on how to get rich fast.

He really needs to lose BIGLY.. This type of candidate CANNOT run again, ever. Gosh he is horrible for not just the USA, the Republican party but the world.

Oh but in good news, Alex Baldwin is in rehearsals doing his Trump impression for Saturday Night Live. I'm sure they'll be doing their version of the debate. I can't wait to see it. Most SNL debate parodies are good, this should be epic. I can imagine the whole team there, from writers to actors to other staff - essentially hate the very essence of what Trump has revealed of him and his campaign. They should be murdering him on Saturday. It is likely to be similar to Sarah Palin 'I can see Russia from my house!' haha. It could be that 'Sean Hannity, Sean Hannity, Sean Hannity' becomes a national joke. And a brutal SNL parody could do a lot to get the youth more energized to really hate Trump (and get semi-enthusiastic about Hillary).

Thats a quick check on major news stories, I'm sure I'll see more shortly

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

And of course I forgot something. The Pulitzer-attempt big expose stories by major press. I said to start to expect them now. And they are coming. Newsweek has a story that Trump engaged in illegal trade with Cuba (cover story). Its a major crime. It is not recent (happened in 1999) but conveniently, that was ALSO a Trump political run, as an Independent third party candidate (brief run attempting to get the nomination for the Reform Party).

Trump was then in Florida talking to the fiercely anti-Castro very conservative Florida Hispanics that he will never deal with Cuba and he is all for the sanctions against Castro. haha while he was dealing secretly with Cuba. This will not endear him with what remains of his Hispanic support in the Sunshine State.

So yeah, I think we can expect tons of nasty news stories coming, now that the end is near. And lots of them will be 'big surprise' type of nasty stories - like haha Cuba. Seriously? The ONE country that all Republicans still hate and Trump went and essentially funneled cash into the pockets of the evil Castro regime. Oh, good move Trump.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi paul

Thanks for the Sam Bee clip. BRILLIANT and as per usual, she is very sharp and superfunny. She should have gotten either Jon Stewart's main show The Daily Show, or if Comedy Central had been really smart, they would have locked Stephen Colbert to do that when Stewart left, and given Sam Bee the follow-up time slot for what now is that Full Frontal show. Comedy Central management, pinheads or boneheads, you make the call haha..

Very funny and yeah. Women REALLY like it when a man makes fun of their weight. And Trump is so tone-deaf he can't see he's just making this worse. And he has nobody there in his Campaign (including his kids) to tell him that he HAS to stop. This is a place where an apology would be in place but haha, if Trump isn't apologizing to Obama for 5 years of Birtherism, he won't apologize for a Miss Universe winner either

Tomi Ahonen :-)

paul

It starts to look really bad for Trump's team.

Megyn Kelly Goes After Kellyanne Conway On Trump’s Misogyny

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/megyn-kelly-goes-after-kellyanne-conway-on-trumps-record-with-women_us_57ece199e4b024a52d2cf0cb

TheTruth

...aaaand here we have it: Microsoft is no longer going to make smartphones:

http://www.lepoint.fr/chroniqueurs-du-point/guerric-poncet/microsoft-renonce-aux-smartphones-grand-public-pour-quelques-annees-28-09-2016-2071926_506.php

Winter

After the debate, the old skeletons are dug up. Not helpful:

Watch Donald Trump Say He Hired a Female Employee Just Because She Was Hot
He also called beautiful women his "alcoholism."
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/09/watch-donald-trump-hire-woman-hot

And Conway slips up and let the truth come out:

Trump Campaign Manager Accidentally Refers to His ‘Abuse’ of Women on Live TV
http://nymag.com/thecut/2016/09/trump-campaign-manager-slips-refers-to-his-abuse-of-women.html

Trump should have stuck to Paul Manafort. At least Manafort does not have a conscience that might get entangled with the "truth".

cornelius

Here is Trump complaining that Holt "was much, much tougher on me than he was on Hillary". Poor Trumpy, he's so delicate, so innocent. It's a shame. There is no justice in this world.
Also Trump is complaining about Google favoring Clinton with the search results. It must be true because the accusation has originated from a report from Sputnik News, a Russian state propaganda outlet.
Here is the link:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/29/donald-trump-attacks-biased-lester-holt-and-accuses-google-of-conspiracy

And speaking of Russians. Everyone knows about Putin's paid trolls army that comments on all discussion boards and spreads propaganda nonsense. And it doesn't really make sense that all online polls have declared Trump the winner of the debate, often by ridiculous amounts like 80% for Trump to 20% for Clinton. I was wondering if Putin's troll army had anything to do with Trump's landslide win in online polls.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

Rasmussen has a 4-way poll out. Hillary up by only +1%. Sounds bad until we see what R said last week. They're the nutters who had Trump up by -5% so even right-leaning Rasmussen managed to dig up a 6 point swing towards Hillary.

Meanwhile PPP has a bunch of in-state polls out in key swing states right after the debate, all gone back to blue. I await RCP to update its pages but we are likely to see some changes in RCP's map today.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Paul

Where Donald Trump lost the debate

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/09/daily-chart-22

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Paul

Great graphic, thanks! All pls go to the Economist link Paul provided. It shows the media echo of the debate. The 3 most replayed clips in news shows after the debate? Number 3: Birtherism. Number 2. Taxes. And number 1 Trump vs women. Yes the media love using Trump in the news but they aren't afraid to show him in a bad light and this is only going to worsen the image of how did that debate go..

And gossip around Saturday Night Live (Alec Baldwin, not Alex I think I said) is that they are intending to make an epic mockery of Trump because they see it partly as their duty to their comedy colleagues.. I really really hope that means they don't let it be anything endearing or positive about him (which they might do in the name of a joke). But a brutal SNL hit could damage Trump as much as the debate itself - the SNL parody of Sarah Palin probably did as much damage as the Katie Couric interview itself.

Oh, and I didn't notice - this is the season OPENING episode now. They'll have one SNL episode after each of the 4 debates including the VP debate which is now next week.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Hubert Lamontagne

Trump is angry at allies for conceding he lost the debate
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/28/politics/donald-trump-debate-reaction/index.html

"Donald Trump is angry that his aides and advisers have conceded to reporters -- largely without attribution -- that the Republican nominee struggled in his first presidential debate.

In a conference call with surrogates Wednesday afternoon, Trump aides made clear the Republican nominee is upset that his allies publicly acknowledged they pushed him to change his preparation and tactics before his next bout with Hillary Clinton. And he wants them to stop it immediately."

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi paul, grouch, cornelius and Daktari

paul (first comment on the top) - I totally agree paul, she is devastating as just an argument, and wins not just women but also argument works with men who have had issues with being overweight (especially if mocked about it) and in particular the Hispanic vote, plus disparaging unskilled workers especially cleaners. Works on VERY many levels. Plus she's in his book and he clearly had forgotten about her (Hillary was lucky, they didn't know this) so he seems like an idiot asking 'where did you find her'. And now, after all that, right at the end of a debate (where you WANT to plant this type of devastating argument if you have great oppo research and you are well prepared) - now Trump makes it 100x worse by prolonging and deepening the argument just like he did with Judge Curiel and the Khan family etc. So I agree its a devastating argument. And it fully worked (even better than planned)

grouch - haha, thanks and yeah. I am sure there were many women who had their final triumph with that line. Obviously this exchange has also been, as the graph Paul got us from the Economist showed, the most repeated video clip from the debate, dominating the aftermath discussion at least in news shows (and likely, very very likely, among any groups of women talking about the debate).

cornelius - gosh great point yes. THEY KNEW. The Hillary campaign of course knew to schedule their volunteers in for women-calling-women day. The Campaign in various local offices didn't know why they'd do this day this way, some shrewd ones might have thought Hillary has some plan for the debate - but I betcha even those, watching 75 minutes into the debate had no idea of what the end gambit was. It came out of the blue. And I timed it. Hillary had it at EXACTLY 60 seconds for the last item, and she did the set-up (stamina) also for exactly 60 seconds. Hillary had practised, I am certain, 100 separate topics that she could take for the final full-timed question, to have a reasonably usable pivot to the women argument. Whether that last topic would have been the lead poisoning of Flint or the financial impact of Brexit to the dollar, she had a pivot planned to get to the women. But thanks cornelius, really, that is VERY valuable insight to understand how these Campaigns are operating.

Now. Can you do this kind of coordination if your Candidate isn't even focusing on the debate prep and you don't even know as a Campaign which version of your candidate shows up on debate day? Can you coordinate phone-banking when you don't have offices in many cities of the battleground states? Can you get the VOLUME of such phone-banking if you don't have an ARMY of volunteers...

Very very VERY smart, well designed campaign running essentially picture-perfectly (with obviously also a flawed candidate to sell, in terms of her high negatives).

LOL Johnson is really a sad accident for the Libertarian party. Imagine if they had cooky Ron Paul as their nominee. He's like Bernie Sanders was, a very old guy who connects with young voters. He's wacky in many of his views, but at least he's wacky in a consistent Libertarian way. And he's very smart in international affairs (while strongly isolationist). Ron Paul could easily have been at 15% today and qualified for the debate and then who knows, could take 25% in the actual election for the Libertarians.

Daktari - thanks!

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cornelius

It seems that Crispy Creme is the new guy in charge with prepping Trump for the next debate. They are changing the wrong guy. The problem is not with the debate coach but with the debater himself. They need to change Trump.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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