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September 09, 2016

Comments

Fica

Carly Fiorina just endorsed Trump. Smart Woman :)

Winter

Given the fast Troll response, Tomi must be have good numbers.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Winter

Its the same guy, uses a different name. Obviously I already deleted the first comment. Incidentally, that 'Fica' is also the same guy, uses different names but I see where they all came from. Stupid. Has me on some alert, is almost always the first to troll the blog and I delete the comments, except a few that I keep for .. sentimental reasons haha...

but the numbers are pretty amazing haha...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

@Tomi
Every blog has its long term trolls. What amazes me most is the amount of time and effort people are willing to spend on a blog whose subject they hate? Some people seem to be unable to live when some words are written.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Winter

Yeah its an interesting experiment. You've seen a few of our .. ahem .. problem children. At least one keeps coming back, and I think we've kind of modified the behavior a bit, to be less hostile (perhaps 'growing up' a bit) but yeah several have been expelled who then have that urge to keep coming back still and trolling the blog (or me). But you can't please everybody, thats something I learned long ago and not to let it bother me haha. I do what I do out of my passion(s) and the blog (and Twitter) is a wonderful place to hang out with like-minded people, and it also delights me to hear occasionally from others (some only privately, via email or DM on TW) and sometimes meeting a fan in person, who has never commented but remembers blogs written years ago, so clearly has been here for a long time. I see the visitor stats and where the visitors come from so I also know, we have a regular readership even if I haven't posted anything for two weeks haha

And I try to bring good value content on mobile/tech topics where I can think of any. Like now am working on a Pokemon Go related piece. Hoping to post it soon.

But also reading the comments is great. I wish I had the chance to reply to everybody always.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

paul

The numbers look good!

Dave Barnes

When Nate Silver shows Hills winning with 400+, then I will relax.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Some tidbits. First off, how to waste 600,000 dollars. Thats a nice house. Thats a GARAGE of Aston Martins. New Aston Martins. Thats what Trump wasted in Michigan on TV ads in one week. And to make matters worse, he's now off the air in Michigan. A local politician said, once you go on the air, you stay on the air; once you come off, the state is done. You get nothing by a splash of TV ads. You have to stay on it. Trump went stupidly into Michigan, a state he has no chance of winning and yes, he threw away 8% of total TV ad budget of the week, on a futile attempt. Ok, at least he seems to have noticed - thats a really dumb thing to do.

Hillary hasn't shown one TV ad in Michigan since the primary in March. She knew. And now Trump is out of Michigan. So. Nice waste (as well as a day in Detroit, also wasted).

Hey, talking of days wasted. Mr Political Genius is now headed to.. Maryland. Yes. Check out our 50 state math. A state that is 27% against him. And he wastes an event there! Ok, go ahead Mr Trump. (very clearly Conway is on her way out, this is sheer madness now)

Well, then on polling, Indiana. My model says it should be about an 10% state for Trump. What is the poll out today? 7% for Trump. So Trump is trending worse now (in Indiana) vs what the Aug 18 date suggested Indiana was. This is how we can use the table to also consider incoming new polling data, is it moving toward one candidate or the other.

A bunch of Republican-leaning Quinnipiac Senator polls show modest leads to threatened Republican Senators. I am thinking this may be one of those Q polls that seem to occasionally pop up when they 'need' some boost. Rubio is up on this one for example. But yeah, its going to be a tough race with the Senate flip.

In issues, gosh, Trump gave an interview for Russia Today and he was saying nasty stuff about the USA. What else is new. If Putin makes the slightest move into Ukraine, Trump is going to be so destroyed for his Russia connections. I can't believe that he isn't already.

Hillary has cut a devastating new anti-Trump TV ad and she had a press conference where she got a bunch of nasty hits on Trump.

Obama is back in the game laughing at Trump.

The main Pro-Hillary SuperPAC reported double the revenues vs July, of over 20 million dollars.

Thats most of the big things happening.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

deadonthefloor

I'd like to know if these polls account for 'millennials', or really those without landline communication.

Seems to me that CNN had a poll where all the millennial data was N/A.

They will be the biggest surprise in this election, because no one can reach them for polling data.

Millard Filmore

Interesting information about Trump's charity is floating into public view. The payment to Pam Bondi's re-election fund is well known, but it does not stop there.

"Donald Trump’s charitable foundation gave $100,000 in 2014 to a conservative activist group that was used to help finance a federal lawsuit against New York state Attorney General Eric Schneiderman — the same public official who was suing the real estate mogul for fraud over the operations of Trump University."

[...]

"And both of these political contributions—for Bondi and against Schneiderman—were paid out through a “charitable foundation” where Donald Trump rarely makes personal contributions, but does encourage those who want to do business with him to make a deposit. Which makes it sound very much like Donald Trump managed to combine a classic pay-for-play scheme and money laundering all in one neat package."


http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/9/9/1568385/-The-Trump-Foundation-s-biggest-contribution-wasn-t-charity-it-was-an-attack

sgtrock

@Millard;

Check the comments for that Daily Kos story, though. Quoting from one:

==
The IRS will have no objection to Trump’s contributing to the Citizens United Foundation, a 501 c 3 offshoot of Citizens United, dedicated to “education.” You and I may not like the Citizens United Foundation, but it is a legal charity. It was legal for the Trump Foundation to contribute $100,000 to the Citizens United Foundation.

Furthermore, the Citizens United Foundation is separate from Citizens United. The Citizens United Foundation did not sue Schneiderman.

Trump gives us so many avenues of attack. We must not get distracted by charges with no merit, and this one has no merit.
==

Millard Filmore

@sgtrock: Right, thanks for that. It is legal from an IRS point of view ... but fodder for a Bribe-Blackmail perspective. Very bad optics (bleah).

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

Nate Silver at 538 Blog talks about the differences in the '50 state' polling method vs individual states and some reasons why '50 state' polls may have more error than individual states. A good read for math nerds and explaining why in-state polls likely more accurate than that state's result out of any '50 state' survey.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-a-50-state-poll-as-good-as-50-state-polls/?ex_cid=538twitter

Which seems to suggest my methodology here is kind of the 'best possible measure' we can achieve out of the info available in the public domain haha. Not bad again, for the CDB blog eh? We go slavishly by the numbers, wherever that may lead us... :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


So now we wait for the next set of polls. I'm really curious to see how things move this month.

Nice work Tomi.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

Follow-up time. A Hispanic voter weekly tracking poll had Trump support fallen to 11.2% the last week before Mexico & Arizona. Now they are up with their first poll after Arizona. Where did Trump go? He's now at 10.5% for Hispanic vote (Hillary 76.8%, 12.5% pick someone else). So yes, if we remember the GOP Autopsy of Romney in 2012 said that the GOP has to get 40% Hispanic vote in 2016 or they won't win the White House. Trump is now at 10.5%. IF Hispanics are 12% of the voter turnout, that difference (40% vs 10.5%) means 3 POINTS in the national election. Trump as the historically horrid Hispanic candidate, all alone by his racist vitriol is causing a 3% loss in NATIONAL Republican vote. Most of those will also drag down the other races on the same ticket.

What did Arizona accomplish explicitly? Of the VERY few very conservative Hispanics LEFT with Trump, Arizona pushed away ever 1 in 13 Trumpists that were left. That is how toxic he is. And thats how dumb Arizona was. It did not win Trump any more racist white KKK Nazi votes that he had not already locked in.

Where will this impact? Most of all Hispanic South. California won't matter. Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado - are beyond Trump's reach. FLORIDA, the battleground will be lost because of the Hispanic vote. And Texas and Arizona will be in play (Arizona won) because of this stupid behavior by the GOP candidate who read the Autopsy, and decided to do the opposite of what the GOP said has to be done. Smart move. Donald J Trump: Political Genius.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

grouch

Trump and Pence have successfully remade the Republican Party into the Russian Party. Glad I got out when that party was merely insane and stupid.

Trump attacks U.S. foreign policy, political press corps on state-owned Russian television network

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/09/08/trump-attacks-u-s-foreign-policy-political-press-corps-in-state-owned-russian-television-network/

Pence agrees with Trump: Calls Putin stronger than Obama

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/mike-pence-agrees-trump-putin-227913

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

Finally found that last piece I've wanted to find, a website with history of the 2 campaigns for their campaign stops. Not yet perfect but they track all since June and its as I've been pointing out. Tons of bizarre Trump visits in non-battleground states but he also has spent a lot of time in the areas where the race is happening. Hillary very disciplined to campaign where the race is happening, only rarely elsewhere, for some photo op etc. Check out the interactive maps here

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-maps-show-where-clinton-and-trump-are-fighting-the-hardest-2016-08-18

Now onto going forward. Trump next week. 2 more dumb stops one in Maryland (extremely blue state) and the other in Texas (should be safe red state and as Hillary isn't campaigning there, its dumb of Trump to do so).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

No, this is better. This is the source data for the above. Its called 'Party Time' blog and has all public events from both sides.

http://politicalpartytime.org/calendar/20160807/

Tomi Ahonen :-)

grouch

Tomi:

I think you may have underestimated the Putin appeal in the Red states. (Still having difficulty equating Republican and Russia, but that's the way the reports indicate now). This may be even more significant than the advertisers' desire to maintain a horse race. The alternate reality propaganda is the strongest I've ever witnessed, going back to Johnson - Goldwater.


Gohmert Goes Full Health Truther In Riff About ‘Mentally Impaired’ Clinton
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/louie-gohmert-values-voter-summit-clinton-mentally-impaired

grouch

Grand Old Putin: Donald Trump delivers the Republican Party to the Russian Federation
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/9/9/1568307/-Grand-Old-Putin-Donald-Trump-delivers-the-Republican-Party-to-the-Russian-Federation

"History will always recall the moment when John F. Kennedy faced aggression by Nikita Khrushchev and declared in no uncertain terms ...

“He has big plans for Russia. He wants to edge out its neighbors so that Russia can dominate oil supplies to all of Europe. … Hats off to the Russians.”

And the deep conviction on human rights that drove Jimmy Carter to tell Leonid Brezhnev ...

“I think our country does plenty of killing also.”
"

tgee

In France, populist vote, especially at the beginning of its rise was constantly underestimated. Because voters lied to the polls (and enjoyed twisting them as they were considered established support). Now based on past results polls manage pondering the declaration to deal with wrong declaration of intent. I also wonder to which extend Republican who resent voting for such a character would still decide at the last minute decide coting for him despite their intent isn't clear at the polling time. In one word, don't you trust too much these polls as the error margin might be higher than usual ?

Wayne Borean


Flat Earthers and Hollow Earthers unite because of Donald J. Trump: Political Genius.

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/laughingindisbelief/2016/09/flat-earthers-and-hollow-earthers-enraged-at-donald-trump/?ref_widget=gr_trending&ref_blog=grails&ref_post=atheist

grouch

That ISIL thing is not the only crucible of fanaticism and extremism. We have its mirror going on in the USA.

Gary Bauer: 'This Is A Flight 93 Election'
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/gary-bauer-flight-93-election

Obviously, according to such people, it's better to 'crash the plane' than allow the terrorists, in their view -- Obama, Clinton, Democrats -- to "control the cockpit".

I hope Tomi is correct in estimating the polling ceiling of Trump, but fungus grows and slime spreads.

Alt-Right Recruiting Kids With ‘Pokémon Go Nazi Challenge’
http://www.vocativ.com/357002/alt-right-pokemon-go-nazi-challenge/

"The racist fringe of the now-mainstream alt-right movement is seizing on the popularity of Pokémon Go to recruit kids who congregate at “gyms” to play the mobile game, according to one of the group’s most outspoken leaders."
[...]
"The flier features run-of-the-mill neo-Nazi propaganda—it rails on Jews, African-Americans, and claims a “white genocide” is happening and white people need to stand up and prepare for the impending race war. The first step, the flier explains, is electing Donald Trump president."

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Ok. I sense plenty of worry haha.. Fair enough. The national polls have tightened and what was for a while about an 8% race is now around 2% (RCP today for 4-way race is 2.1%). Thats a tight race in anybody's book. Would not need much to swing away from Hillary. But that RCP average does include the silly CNN poll with the nutty sample that is the only poll in 44 polls showing a Trump lead. If we remove just that poll, the RCP average of the past 10 days and 8 polls goes to 2.6%. This is far closer to reality than 2.1% - based on current polling. BUT thats still less than 3% and its still a close race yes.

So lets go to the fundamentals. We learned from the GOP in 2012 what went wrong, why Romney lost and what they have to do to fix it for 2016. They said very clearly in the Autopsy that the GOP had to become more appealing to 3 groups of voters - women, minorities and youth voters. So what happened in the past 4 years. The GOP has become LESS popular with ALL three of those groups. The Democrats meanwhile have worked to improve themselves with the same groups. Then the Republicans nominated Trump. Of any major candidate to lead either party in the primary race, Trump is the most disliked candidate among women, minorities and the youth vote. Period. Hillary, not popular obviously but she scored higher than ANY rival on either side of the aisle with women and with minorities (but does poorly with youth - and with men). Its nearly the 'perfect storm' since 2012. The Republican party did everything wrong, the Democrats everything right. To top it off, the Republicans nominated the worst possible candidate - in history (for these 3 groups) and the Democrats nominated the best candidate of this CYCLE to two of the 3 groups and an ok one for the last of the 3 groups. This is a nightmare waiting to happen.

Because the DEMOGRAPHICS are destiny. There are more women registered to vote than men. Women vote in elections more than men. Women prefer voting for Democrats (men for Republicans). What the Republicans and Trump have done, is to worsen/deepen the GENDER GAP when they were supposed to make it less so. BUT added to that, Hillary will bring a female voter surge because she is the first woman ever to be on the ticket for President. What is the exact size, who knows, who cares. It means the BIGGEST single voting block that was already a hurdle for Republicans got FAR worse. Not only is the gender GAP worse than 2012, there is also a SURGE in female voters. Women were 53% of the vote in 2012. They will be at least 55% this year. The Gender Gap was 8% in 2012. It will be at least 15% this year.

To add to that is the minority situation. With blacks, after a Black president ran against a white guy, and got 92% of the vote, you can never do better than that if you're just a white candidate against another white candidate. Or so it would have seemed prior to Trump. But Trump polls at 2% (or 1%) with black voters. Hillary is in 80s (some votes go to third parties and some undecided). The minority outreach with blacks is abysmal when Trump is in the picture - for good cause, blacks know perfectly well a racist when they see one.

Then there is the Hispanic vote. The GOP Autopsy gave a specific threshold. They said that for 2016 the level of Hispanic vote they have to reach is 40% - or they will not win the White House. Not my words, thats what Reince Priebus wrote in the Autopsy. 40%. Trump was at 11.5% before the Mexico-Arizona trip. Now he's at 10.7%. The Hispanic vote alone will doom Trump because he loses Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico - and FLORIDA due to Hispanics. And if Trump loses those four states from what Obama won, he is not President. As I've told you again and again, the four states in play now are Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Trump has to win ALL four. Hispanics guarantee that Florida is lost. Florida was 18% Hispanic voters in 2012 and will be over 20% this time.

Now, youth vote will be down from the levels that Obama was able to achieve, but the youth voter segment is far smaller than women voters. Even a modest women voter surge will compensate and exceed any decline from a youth voter surge. No, demographics is destiny. This election was over in March when I did the math for you. It hasn't changed. There are not enough white men for Trump to win. And his last-minute outreach plans are clearly not working.

That is one way to look at it...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

The second way to look at it, is from observing the Hillary campaign. The race is two months to go. If a Campaign was in dire straights, it makes changes (like firing Campaign Managers, local managers, ending TV ads, etc). Hillary is cool as a cucumber, and has taken no actions to suggest the slightest doubt in their plan. Instead - they are that strong, they are EXPANDING the map!

In 2012, at this point in time, start of September, the Obama campaign still talked about North Carolina and had offices there, but never in the last 2 months did they put resources in, Obama made no campaign stops and they did not put in TV ads. They pulled their NC staff out by late September. They did not have the resources to try to expand into NC, they needed to fight for Florida, Ohio and Virginia (they knew they had locked Colorado).

This time Hillary has been many times in NC, and they have a big TV ad buy. This means that the Hillary Campaign (many of the same people) in the same time spot - feels so confident about Florida, Ohio, Virginia (Colorado and Pennsylvania) that they HAVE expanded the map BEYOND what Obama did in 2012. And Obama won by 5% in 2012.

And as we saw in the past two weeks its not just NC, she has ALSO gone to Arizona and Georgia. That is VASTLY more confidence than what Obama had at this point in 2012. The Hillary Clinton campaign has the best insight of any political party in any election ever, that they now use to guide their campaign. And they KNOW they are so safely ahead, by so much, they can go grab more, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. They may not win all three of those, but if they're spending in all three, they'll win AT least one, likely two and possibly all 3. They're way too smart to waste effort and dilute it, to 'just lose by a hair in 2 states' rather than win clearly in one of them. We will monitor and see, will Hillary drop one or two (or 3) of these states, but as long as she spends money and campaigns in these 3 states, its a blowout election. Its more than Obama's 5% victory. How much more, that still depends on the debates and the end-game, ground game, etc, but they are ahead and nothing - absolutely nothing suggests there is trouble.

Thats a second way to look at it. We have one more..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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