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« No Press Intimidation by Trump - hence: BREAKING REPORT: Melania Trump Was A Sex Worker After Moving To United States - repeating story the Trump Attorneys are now making bigger story than it was | Main | Election Scorecard Number 2 - Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton: Sept 1, 2016 (plus my updated forecast) »

August 30, 2016

Comments

Wayne Borean


Yeah, you'd think that Donald Trump is really a Groaci diplomat.

Isceald Glede

Hi Tomi

Last time, you wondered why Trump was staying out of the battle ground states. I thought the reason was clear. By staying away he retains some chance of winning. The campaign team must be trying to steer him towards states where losing a few thousand votes will not make a difference.

I am glad you enjoyed Trumpty. Unfortunately I cannot claim it is entirely original. I heard something example riddles over the phone. I wrote them down and later included some of the phrasing in the draft that ultimately became the final rhyme. I did not check Samuel Arnold's Juvenile Amusements. This was my mistake, and I feel terrible for the chaos I have caused. No harm was meant.

Winter

How Much Is Donald Trump Hurting the G.O.P.? Here’s a Way to See
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/31/upshot/theres-a-way-to-see-how-much-donald-trumps-nomination-has-cost-the-gop.html

Millard Filmore

To put aside the comedy for a short message ...
Yesterday Rachel Maddow announced the latest PPP polling of Trump as opposed to various, um, other things. Among African-Americans, the Trump is losing out to bed bugs.

http://addictinginfo.org/2016/08/30/donald-trump-is-literally-polling-at-0-with-black-people-imagevideo/
https://twitter.com/MaddowBlog/status/770438637234233344

cornelius

Benghazi = pretext
draft dodger = war hero
medical report = quick scam certificate while the limousine is waiting

I don't necessarily like my definitions but I think these items could be included in the dictionary. Everyone is welcome to improve these definitions.

Eduardo M

A very insightful article at, of all places, the National Review, on the bad relations between the races that Trump is trying to exploit

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439431/race-relations-getting-worse-america-why?target=author&tid=997024

grogxd

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-considers-last-minute-meeting-in-mexico-with-the-countrys-president/2016/08/30/5a694790-6f12-11e6-9705-23e51a2f424d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumpmexico9p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

I don't get what EPN or Trump have to win over this.

Anyway fun days are coming

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

(thanks for nice words and great additions to Dictionary, cornelius. Others please add your jokes too)

On the race. Am working to seek out all possible data for the Sept 1 version of the Election Scorecard and just out yesterday, WaPo has a count, via PBS, of the field office totals in battleground states. Gosh its devastating news and its once again, bewilderingly stupid organization by Trump. See the article here

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/30/the-un-campaign-hillary-clinton-has-three-times-as-many-field-offices-as-donald-trump/

So to summarize, yes, obviously Hillary has a far better organized, and far larger ground game than Trump does. We knew that. But now this is the first count of the armies on the ground haha. Trump's largest 5 states where he has a big organization are Wisconsin, Virginia (dumb!), Ohio, Iowa and Colorado (dumb!). But in Pennsylvania he only has 2 offices (vs 18 in Virginia!) in Florida only 1 !!!! (but 8 in Colorado) and in North Carolina, the fourth of the 4 states he cannot lose - Trump has yet to open his first field office. Yes Trump has zero in NC but he does have 22 in Wisconsin - where winning WI means zero to Trump, its too small to replace Florida or Ohio or Pennsylvania...

Meanwhile Hillary? 36 offices in Ohio, 36 offices in Pennsylvania, 34 in Florida. Her 4th biggest organization is Wisconsin and 5th biggest is North Carolina. Even in Wisconsin, Trump's biggest investment, Hillary has 50% more assets on the ground. As Hillary leads Wisconsin polls by about 10% that should be more than enough to hold a large victory margin in the state and Trump is simply pissing away his money in the state where they make the cheese. In total the battleground states sees an advantage of Hillary field offices 291 vs 88 for Trump (3 to 1 ratio). BUT HOW MORONIC IS TRUMP? In the four must-win states for Trump, only looking at Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, its devastating. Its 136 for Hillary vs 19 for Trump. its a 7 to 1 advantage for team Clinton.

I do expect these numbers to adjust (on Trump's side) to something closer to sanity but gosh, its 70 days left in the race and yes, Trump has no field office in North Carolina, a state he has to hold, or he won't be President. A state that used to vote reliably Republican but Obama won in 2008 and Romney narrowly took back to Republicans in 2012. A state where Trump is behind by about 3 points. Where he is now advertising on TV (and Hillary obviously is advertising heavily). But where Hillary has 30 field offices meaning at least 31 paid staff stationed in North Carolina. Trump has no field offices there and perhaps has 1 paid staff for NC but might be zero. Hillary speaks regularly in NC, while Trump was just in Texas, Mississippi and Arizona, Trump doesn't like talking in battleground states to undecided voters. He far prefers preaching to his choir at his cult follower rallies.

Also to really rub it in. Hillary has opened her first field office in Utah (Bill Clinton was sent to campaign in Utah, haha. Hillary won't waste her time there but we may see Tim Kaine go there too at some point if Utah continues to remain close, especially as that one ex CIA guy Mormon Republican is now on the ballot in Utah haha)

But yes, we're starting to see more detail on the race and it IS truly fascinating. Hillary is doing everything by the book and all signs show that if you do that, you just move the needle consistently more into your favor. RCP battleground state map (no toss-ups) shows Hillary now winning every state Obama carried in 2012 plus NC and GA. Trump is at under 200 EV votes (270 needed to win). And to really rub it in, RCP has so many states not in play for Trump, that if Trump won all the states where it is close (race at 5% or less), Trump still loses because Hillary currently has 'locked' so many states she has 272 EV votes today, even if she lost every close race haha. The election is over, for all practical purposes, pending some unforseen event like heart attack or terrorist incident in the USA.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Wayne Borean


@Tomi,

Or a Hillary Clinton meltdown. But we are talking realistic unforeseen events, and Hillary Clinton is not going to have a meltdown, no matter how much the misogynists would like her too.

But if you listen in the right places, there are a lot of people who are convinced that she will fall apart.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Wayne

Haha yeah. It could happen. Anything could happen. Realistically, Hillary seems pretty unflappable and Trump seems like he's five seconds into a nervous breakdown already. I'd say about 95-to-5 odds that if anyone has a breakdown, its Trump. And even as it seems like nobody could do worse in an election than Trump so far, yes, a breakdown would push his loss into even worse levels haha

but those who are desperately clinging to a desire for Trump to win, they need something. So they hope for anything..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

The Donald really knows how to pick his people:

Trump's Campaign Manager Thinks 'Rape Would Not Exist' If Women Were As Strong As Men
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trumps-campaign-manager-thinks-rape-would-not-exist-if-women-were-as-strong-as-men_us_57c6de3ee4b0a22de0932e31

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

A Mexico trip? A MEXICO trip? To remind voters of what, that he called Mexicans rapists and murderers. That the current and 2 past Mexican Presidents have said they won't pay for his wall? Gosh, this is 'brilliant' in exactly the same way as Trump U is a 'university'.

So he suddenly decides to abandon his regularly-scheduled next event - he suddenly flies off to Mexico - AND he won't bother to fly his press corps to join him in Mexico? So its only Mexican press then? This has every sign of a truly stupid thing to do. Make Trump seem statesman-like? Ok.. We'll see how it goes

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

Live Briefing: Uproar Over Donald Trump's Trip to Mexico
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/31/us/politics/donald-trump-mexico.html

Mexico's president is not increasing his populatity.

grouch

Former Models for Donald Trump's Agency Say They Violated Immigration Rules and Worked Illegally

http://m.motherjones.com/politics/2016/08/donald-trump-model-management-illegal-immigration

grouch

From the motherjones investigative article linked above:

"H-1B visas have been increasingly popular in the high-tech field, and Trump's companies, including Trump Model Management, have used this program extensively in the past. But on the campaign trail, Trump has railed against the H-1B program and those who he says abuse it. "I will end forever the use of the H-1B as a cheap labor program and institute an absolute requirement to hire American workers first for every visa and immigration program," Trump said in March. "No exceptions."

Nearly three years after signing with Trump's agency, Blais had little to show for it—and it wasn't for lack of modeling jobs. Under the contracts that she and other Trump models had signed, the company advanced money for rent and various other expenses (such as trainers, beauty treatments, travel, and administrative costs), deducting these charges from its clients' modeling fees. But these charges—including the pricey rent that Blais and her roommates paid—consumed nearly all her modeling earnings. "I only got one check from Trump Models, and that's when I left them," she said. "I got $8,000 at most after having worked there for three years and having made tens of thousands of dollars." (The check Blais received was for $8,427.35.)

"This is a system where they actually end up making money on the back of these foreign workers," Blais added. She noted that models can end up in debt to their agencies, once rent and numerous other fees are extracted."


Sounds like coal mining in Kentucky and West Virginia.

Winter

Why the alt-right is still nervously embracing Donald Trump
http://mashable.com/2016/09/01/donald-trump-immigration-speech-white-nationalists-alt-right/

It’s the wall, and deportation. Oh, and Fox tells us:

Fox national poll: Clinton and Trump in virtual tie in 4-way race
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/fox-news-poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-tie-227611

Winter

Still no field offices in Florida:

Trump's Florida Ground Game Lags as GOP Rides to His Rescue
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-08-31/trump-s-florida-ground-game-lags-as-gop-rides-to-his-rescue

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

The Election Scorecard 2, Effective Sept 1, is now up. Hillary gained somewhat, time running short, forecast remains unchanged. Tons more numbers and details. Enjoy

Tomi Ahonen :-)

John Fro

I'm sure everyone can agree that campaign finance reform should wait until after HRC is elected. Right? The idea that a candidate is a checkbox of aspirational necessity is toxic. This is going to end up Clinton 2.0 with all the scandals, possible impeachments, and dreary semantics. Are we going to get any more than we got out of Obama? No, the same institutional forces are in place to forestall any radical agendas and this time it will be personal. The Republicans will have to toss out the Nixonians this time for good. The Southern-Segregationist strategy just can't compete demographically any more. There aren't enough white protestant people left to win national campaigns against the influx of Hispanic Catholics. They hold about 37% of the Republican vote now--enough to win a nomination in a crowded field, but not enough to win a national campaign. You need a more centric candidate like a Chris Christie or John Kasich, but with at least a smattering of personality or charisma. Iowa is really proving to be a huge problem for Republican national ambitions. I could see this taking eight or more years to work out.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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