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« Smartphone Wars: iPhone 40.4M is about 12% market share for Q2 of 2016 | Main | The Trump Cult Is One Without A Leader. Trump is Only Its Willing Figurehead »

August 01, 2016

Comments

paul

@Tomi

Maybe dislikeability could be added to in addition to "Likeability"?

Regarding this "A data system so big, it was one of the ten largest databases on the planet, on a massive parallel processing system distributed over hundreds of high-power computers linked via cloud computing" I really really doubt that it was in top 10. Maybe a reference would help here?

paul

@Tomi

I meant something like this

HILLARY CLINTON . . . . . . . . . . DONALD TRUMP
Likeability . . . . . . A . . . . . . . . . . . Likeability . . . . . . . B
Dislikeability . . . . . . C . . . . . . . . . . . Dislikeability . . . . . . . D
Competence . . . . A . . . . . . . . . . . Competence . . . . . D
Temperament . . . A . . . . . . . . . . . Temperament . . . . F
Public speaking . . A . . . . . . . . . . . Public speaking . . F
TV interviews . . . A . . . . . . . . . . . . TV interviews . . . . C
Debating . . . . . . . A . . . . . . . . . . . . Debating . . . . . . . C

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi paul

It was. I reported in depth back in 2012 about it (this blog is the best source of public-domain stories about the data wars of 2012). But when you read the blog, the links were not in yet. Sorry. Thanks for being here so fast, but now the links are in. Go ahead and follow the links, you'll find the info.

As to the chart, I understood yes, haha. BUT its the SAME characteristic. Its just incredibly bad for both - but even there, for moderates uncertain of either, they will find Hillary incredibly undesirable - but then Trump being even worse. It doesn't matter how low we set the 'ceiling' where the A has to be given to one candidate, it still has to be there. And then we can't do that measure twice (positive and negative). I hear you, but that is measuring the same factor twice.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Deyan

I removed your 'comment' as it was clearly link-bait. If you want to say something, say something. Don't come to my blog to try to drive traffic to your blog

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

Just as I posted this, CBS came out with their poll post-Democratic Convention with +6% for Hillary in 2-way race and +5 in 3-way race with Johnson. CBS had it as a tied race before the Conventions; a -1% for Trump after his Convention and now a +6% for Hillary, meaning a +7% gain in her bounce.

The RCP average is at +2.2% and the three polls out since the DEM Convention ended show a +5.3% race currently.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

paul

Hei Tomi!

I looked to the link which you posted and the best I could find was this "Project Narwhal - mind you, this is a temporary project arguably for one election - ranked in the top 20 largest consumer/customer databases ever made.." (from: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/12/the-definitive-article-on-numbers-and-performance-of-narwhal-vs-orca-obama-vs-romney-datamining-and-.html ) whilst in your current post is reference to "top 10". Is there a typo?

Still I am not convinced that 175 million records in a database in 2012 made it in top 10 or top 20. For example, public databases containing genomic/biological info have much more than that. For example, only ONE human genome has 3 billion "letters", 10 million SNPs, 40K genes and usually a genomic database contains several individuals. See for fun: http://cancergenome.nih.gov/abouttcga/overview/howitworks/sequencingcenters

Winter

Tomi

What would be the effect of Trump NOT showing his taxes and NOT showing up at the debates?

That is what I expect. He will come up with some excuses to skip all the debates and to NOT show his taxes.

John A

I can not wote in the US election. But I guess much can happend in the world that can have a impact the election.

Some more terrorist attack in Europe for example, some more deleted E-mails from Hillary thats suddenly will be showed etc..

Who will Bernie Sanders fans wote for or not.
But I will follow the campaign of course.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi paul

Yeah, sorry, corrected it now. Top 20 yes not Top 10. But bear in mind, its by far the largest CONSUMER database ever made, by far larger than anything like say banks or credit cards - or even TELECOMS databases (next largest in existence, which contain FAR more data than say tax authorities). But this system had not just names, addresses, phone numbers, email addresses, facebook etc; it has their likes & friends and networks; it has their media consumption data etc - this already makes it TONS more than what say a Facebook could ever hope to have. THEN we get the scoring. When I wrote that, I thought they had 2 scales of 100 point measures for every voter. Later we found out they actually had 5 such scales. The detail of US consumers is incredible and when they said, we know how you voted - they really do. Unless you played some silly prank in your vote, for 99.9% of consumers, they DO know how you voted in 2012.

And THAT is powerful powerful powerful data for 2016 (they also know for all how they voted in 2008 haha). And the SYSTEM that can generate that level of info is, to elections, what radar is to airplanes and ships for navigation. Yes you can use binoculars but gosh you won't want to try to navigate in a fog or inside a rainstorm without radar

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Paul

As you so patiently waded through that long article haha and really are interested, here is my follow-up where we have more details we discovered since 2012, about the systems

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2015/12/lots-more-detail-about-narwhal-big-data-machine-performance-in-obama-2012-campaign-including-several.html

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

Back to the scorecard. There seems to be no "armed forces/military/veterans" score. If there was, Trump might be heading to an F.

John McCain's powerful statement to the Khans
http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/01/politics/john-mccain-statement-khan-family/index.html

Winter

Another point. If Trumps chances are as dire as are predicted here, there might come a point where there is a mass desertion of GOP down ticket candidates and officials. So I suspect there is a real chance that Trump losses most support of GOP politicians.

Tomi, what do you think would be the hard core support of Trump if he loses all supporters with a conscience?

I would expect that to be around 15%.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Winter

Me too. I expect Trump to at least skip the first debate and push his taxes as far as he possibly can. I would expect enormous condemnation of everyone from all sides when he does that - and that Hillary probably has an army of surrogates to go mock him everywhere (about being chicken about not debating).

What I hope she'd do is show up (and in that case, I really hope Johnson has not qualified, it is NOT fair to have Johnson then debate Hillary if Trump is not there). But to use the opportunity to have a dialogue, the intended moderator(s) vs Hillary, fair honest factual discussion - possibly even with occasional video of what Trump has said of some of those things. Just make it a ridiculous spectacle about how Trump won't be open and honest with American voters.

The tax returns, clearly he's terrified about them and I'm pretty sure it shows he's nearly broke AND he has money from Russia. If the status of how bad his personal finances were revealed, many of his debtors will end their lines of credit (ie Deutsche Bank) which would push Trump into immediate personal bankruptcy. And if he has ANY money from Russia (or gosh, North Korea. He constantly loves Kim Jong Un and the North Koreans keep singing the praises of Trump) or China - that would end his Presidential credibility.

I expect that after 2016, the US election system will be altered with a few manadated issues. That a candidate must reveal taxes before X date and a candidate cannot skip debates. (And probably also, must undergo a full physical and mental evaluation at a government medical facility such as Bethesda Naval Hospital in Washington DC which is the primary hospital for US Presidents when they need medical care).

Now what would be the effect? I think Trump's core supporters will not desert him. So somewhere in that 30% range or so, is his floor and even if he skips all debates and doesn't show his taxes and keeps insulting American parents of fallen US soldiers and whatnot, gosh, claiming Russia will never invade the Crimea when it already is there... Those supporters will not desert Trump.

But he can't win. So he is headed to a loss. Eventually that becomes an ever more obvious, ever more enormous loss. The volunteers will quit, the money stops flowing in, none of his peers want to be seen with him. More and more those who endorsed him will revoke their endorsements. There has never been a candidate (in modern times) with so many of his OWN party already against him as they are against Trump now. The only possible chance then would be for somehow the 'alternate' candidate to win (Johnson) and at least now, that is not in any way plausible. The Democrats are united enough to guarantee Hillary with 45% and likely over 50% and therefore if 25% vote for Trump and Johnson even takes 30% he can't win...

Now. Trump may QUIT (or suspend his campaign). That will devastate the Republicans up and down the ticket, shut all incoming money, get all his TV ads off the air, have everybody rushing to demand to be paid. He'd essentially be shut down so badly, he could not even re-start his campaign anymore. Then even if all Republicans say - vote for Johnson - the TRUMP supporters won't want to vote for Johnson. They love their cuddly little racist. So at least a quarter of the Trump loyalists would stay home and some part of the rest - would vote for Hillary rather than Johnson (and some will WRITE IN Trump). Johnson can't win but he can severely damage Trump and if a lot of Republicans abandon Trump and support Johnson, he could even win a few states (very red states).

The Trump house of cards has just started to crumble but its crumbling in slow-motion. Its now on a path it cannot fix or stop the collapse. Aug 8 the RCP average (4-way race) will be at +5% for Hillary, by Sept 8 it will be +9% for Hillary, by Oct 8 it will be +14% and by Nov 8 when the votes are counted, it will be +18.

Trump has zero methods or tools or assets left, by which to alter the course of the race. The VP selections and Conventions are done, and he has no chance in the debates. But he keeps making everything worse, daily. And Hillary has clearly all the tools needed, to massacre Trump, which they now are doing, methodically, statet-by-state and vote-by-vote (like Colorado, already done, it was a battleground state in early July).

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Winter

Good point about military. I have it kind of hidden in 'foreign policy' and it probably should be split apart. I've written before that the military vote will generate the big part of 'Hillary Republicans' like we saw already at the Convention and now John McCain's granddaughter who said she's voting for Hillary. There will be lots of them (very likely General Colin Powell, very moderate Republican, is likely to come over earlier, not later).

On the very floor, yeah, maybe 45% of Republican voters were very strongly for Trump. So thats 15% of the total electorate. If we peel Trump to his absolute least, its that level. But there is also a 'never Hillary' part of Republicans who will always go for Trump ahead of any Clinton, and therefore the realistic floor is probably around 25% and that would need enormous condemnation of very many who have endorsed Trump. Note that most who would desert Trump, who still might vote - would of course vote for Johnson, not for Hillary. BUT... some who now think they'd like Johnson, can be peeled to Hillary. The Democratic Convention was strongly designed to appeal to the voters in the middle.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

To those of us obsessed with the polling data and who fell in love with the Reuters rolling 3 day average every day. That was unfortunately altered right during the Democratic Convention (bizarre timing) so we can't get trend data back from that time AND we can't measure the bounces related to the events. How very unfortunate. But if you were wondering where did that poll go (its not updating anymore) here is the new page

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/dates/20160701-20160801/type/day

That starts unfortunately yes, on Friday after Republican Convention. But they measure the race currently as a 4 point race by a likely voter screen for a 2-person race (as of Friday 29 July). This is the page we now need to go to. For what its worth, Reuters daily poll says that Michelle Obama & Bernie Sanders day caused a small gain to Hillary, the Bill Clinton day cause a nice bump, but the Obama day and Hillary's own concluding day didn't change the race. The number which is surprisingly large is the 'refused' number ie 9% are not willing to say who they prefer. That number could hide some nasty surprise like white racist voters refusing to admit they still intend to vote for Trump.... (but could also have very disgruntled Republicans who don't want to admit the shame they will be voting against Trump)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

About the race. First the Khan family. Ezra Klein of Vox just pointed out something that didn't hit me. The Khans spoke before the network shared time. It was visible on cable TV coverage but not on network coverage. MOST Americans did NOT see the compelling short speech, which was the single best sound-bite and video attacking Trump.

If Trump had let it be, most Americans would not know about it. But Trump had to attack and now this has been the top story for four days. And it is pushing even more Republicans away from Trump. John McCain's granddaughter was one who wrote in public, this was the straw that broke her back and she is now for Hillary. Meanwhile John McCain and Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell and Lindsay Graham - and Trump's VP Mike Pence all have said that the Khan family are heroic and should not be attacked. And once again, Trump cannot apologize, because obviously he never ever has been wrong and he never ever can afford to apologize.

Well, then we have more fun. Trump claimed the NFL (National Football League, American football, not soccer) had written him a letter that they don't want the debates on the dates that are in the calendar. Of course the NFL has not written such a letter. Why would Trump make such a blatant lie?

Then he attacked a fire marshall. Why? As it happens, the man is a decorated hero.

Then Trump of course continues his feud with a 4 star general.

The Ukraine. Trump said that under no circumstances will Russia invade the Crimea, underlining it so intensely he said "You can mark it down. you can put it down. You can take it anywhere you want" and of course the interviewer then pointed out that Russia is already in Crimea.

The Trump campaign is proceeding to self-destruct on every conceivable level. Two wonderful jokes about it. @BuhByeGOP said the only metaphor to describe how badly the Trump campaign is now doing, is if the Titanic managed to crash into the Titanic.

And the British paper Guardian put it in another way. The Trump campaign is Swift-boating itself.

All of this will damage Trump now. All of this will find itself in a series of ridiculing jokes to make Trump a total laughing stock long before November, like Sarah Palin was in 2008. And worst - all of these - plus ALL THE REPUBLICAN comments - will be collected by Hillary and run at some convenient point. I would expect that while the Hillary campaign did run Republican comments about Trump at the Convention in the video montages, those were the old videos produced in the past months and already run on YouTube. If they are smart about it, they wait now, let the Republicans do more damage to Trump BUT NOT repeat them now. Because if the Republicans see they are used in videos attacking Trump, they will speak less. BUT as Trump is repeatedly vile, there is a strong demand for Republicans to react and the best thing for the Democrats is to wait now.. all of these can be used, the damage will be about the same sooner or later, but let Trump damage himself now. Then later, around October, turn on the 'by the way, this is what Republicans say' series and run them all then. Use Trump's own words now yes, but wait with the Republican condemnations... (thats what I'd do)

Titanic hitting the Titanic. Trump Swift-boating his own campaign... LOL

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Everybody

And it just keeps getting worse. Gallup has measured Conventions since 1984. The GOP Convention of 2016 is the only one in history that managed to get people to think WORSE of the party after the Convention - and not by a little bit either. The damage -15% is about as strong AGAINST the Republican party than they have EVER managed to do POSITIVE. Here is Gallup link

http://www.gallup.com/poll/194084/americans-positive-democratic-gop-convention.aspx

And yeah, Democrats got a small positive gain, not big. But Republicans had a massive damage to their position. So here is what Trump management will do. It is very literally the Trump U and Trump Vodka and Trump Casino reputation, now put into politics. He is that bad.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

grouch

The Koch donor network is showing some cracks; won't support Trump; focusing on the Senate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/koch-network-seeks-to-defuse-donor-frustration-over-trump-rebuff/2016/08/01/7247b8c2-579a-11e6-831d-0324760ca856_story.html

grouch

Another thing I find interesting in comparing the two conventions is how they handled protests during speeches.

Can't find the reference, but someone reported Hillary passing the word to the New York delegates to not drown out the Bernie-or-Bust supporters on the first day.


Wonder if Hillary will settle for a much lower point spread and instead focus some energy on down ticket races. It would make sense, given her history of negotiations with hard-nosed factions. She knows full well the frustration Obama has had.

paul

@Tomi

Top 20 is sound.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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