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« Trump VP Choice Mike Pence - So When Your Campaign Wasn't In Trouble Enough With Women, Perhaps? | Main | Best of Twitter Jokes around Hashtag: You Might Be a Republican - a hundred fresh jokes about Republicans »

July 18, 2016

Comments

steve epstein

Great post. A 3 cuppa. Earl Grey decaf since it is late Sunday night.

The VP introduction was an amazing train wreck.

My jaw dropped when he left the stage.
He couldn't even stand there and smile, and then clasp hands when Pence finished his speech.
How graceless is that ???

Your point on Pence healing the party basically kneecapping Pence is a great item.

Anyway, I will be watching the Comedy Central coverage of the RNC.
Jon Stewart is likely to be on Colbert's show.

I just wish I could see Putin's and the PRC daily intel sheets on this dumpster fire.

s/

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Steve

ROTFLMAPIMP yeah, want to see Putin & PRC reviews of 'their boy' and how their investment is being squandered haha.. gosh wow.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

This VP speech is just another illustration of this truism:

"A Trump speech is just a story starring Trump. "

Science Proves the Donald Is a Textbook Narcissist
It's as if psychologists decided on the definition for "unprincipled narcissist" from within a Trump rally.
http://web.alternet.org/election-2016/trump-speech-just-story-starring-trump-science-proves-donald-textbook-narcissist

More quotes:
"Given the utter disregard for the necessity of dealing in what other people think of as “things that are true,” coupled with a similar disregard for fixed positions on issues, every Trump speech is subject to a kind of political Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle in that it is not possible to measure both the momentum of the speech as Trump winds up his audience and his fixed position on any issue under discussion."

"That’s why Trump doesn’t like to use teleprompters. The scripted speech on the teleprompter interferes with tangents he can wander down, expressing the true wonder of himself."

"Another key feature of Trump’s particular personality disorder is his pronounced vindictiveness. ... He has been dissed not only by the effrontery of being opposed, but after the vanquishing of his enemies, they still refuse to endorse him. Intolerable!"

"We are just a few short weeks from when Chief Birther Donald Trump, an unscrupulous, amoral, vindictive, con man, sweeps into Cleveland and becomes the scariest and most profoundly unqualified person to ever be nominated by a political party in the history of the United States.

The Republican Party will pay a heavy price when America rallies against him."

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Winter

Great article and yes so so clearly Trump. That vindictiveness part is the weirdest to me, in particular thinking about the election. It is MASSIVELY destructive to his campaign and its bizarre that Trump doesn't get it, that he HAS to repair/rebuild any bridges broken and not keep wrecking them. You CANNOT win if you keep alienating more people. Its mathematically impossible.

So like that Pence into speech and Trump's bewildering obsession to go poke AGAIN at his primary victories. Why why why why why. No, thats not enough whies. Why why WHY WHY why WHY why, and why, and still more why why why. Its bizarre. Every time he does that, he is rubbing the nose of those who were beaten. Most will be FAR over it by now, for some its still a sore point - and it will anger and enrage those who were deeply hurt - and motivate them to rise up AGAIN. Jeb Bush. He was up again on Friday with an article against Trump. If Trump had been wise about it, the moment Jeb was out, Trump would have shifted to pure praise and admiration of Jeb and his brave and noble campaign but no, get on Jeb's case every few speeches. Now, even as Trump did not mention Jeb, I am sure the close loyalists for Jeb feel the pain when Trump just reminds them about how they lost so badly in the primaries. This is MADNESS.

They are HIS party. He is THEIR nominee. Under no circumstance can Trump win, if Republicans will not vote for him. Even if he gets 100% of the Republican vote, he only has about 31% of the total vote (because more Americans are Democrats and most are Independents). So yeah, why waste even ONE Republican vote. Its so weird its a 13 months into a 'proper' campaign and half a hear from when candidates started to drop out, and yet, Trump is still vindictive about this.

But boy is he entertaining.. I so hope and wish he'll do the main speech without teleprompter too haha (I cannot imagine Manafort would allow that - BUT it may be, that Trump has already decided to fire Manafort because of the rotten Pence stunt they pulled and Manafort is now kept on only to mark time, and right after the Convention - or at some very embarrassing moment perhaps - Trump will drop him. It would be SO in character.)

One of the news channels had some talking heads with analysis that Trump's own speeches and Tweets are focusing on the 'Law and Order' fear factor, and Manafort's written speeches and Tweets by the Social Media people working with Manafort but Tweeting in Trump's name, are on the economic arguments. There may also be THAT internal struggle of what 'should' be the MESSAGE where again Trump's gut feeling is being pushed aside by Manafort. I think there is a well above 50/50 chance that Manafort is tossed within a week or two. I can't believe Trump would put up with the many times Manafort is going against him. This, with the views we've seen of how thin-skinned Trump is and how alpha-male he is and over-confident about his own superiority...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Imot

http://www.theonion.com/article/will-be-end-trumps-campaign-says-increasingly-nerv-52002

Kill yourself ;)

Winter

@Tomi
"Why why why why why."

The article explains it: "unprincipled narcissist" is a mental disorder. Sufferers of this disease are delusional and are not able to control their impulses.

That is not right. Let me reformulate. Sufferers of this disease are ONLY motivated by short-time need for admiration.

His vindictiveness trumps all other aims. He MUST get on top, NOW. Gratification of this need cannot be postponed. Not if his future depended on it, because his future has no appeal to him if he cannot destroy those who opposed him, NOW.

Tomi T Ahonen

hi Winter

Thanks. Yeah that explains it. When I think of it as strictly like an addiction, then it does make sense. Its not rational. Its an addiction like a drug addiction or alcoholism. I get it now, thanks

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi imoT (=Tomi)

LOL yeah, we remember that Onion piece from last year. Note this was one of the first blogs anywhere to calculate that it WAS possible for Trump to win his nomination, already by August. So by the time that joke came out, we were kind of 'past it' haha but yeah, typical Onion.

Also obviously I DESPERATELY want Trump to REMAIN in the race and NOT quit. But his behavior is not consistent with someone who intends to run in an election. Its consistent with a money scam. But that was not the topic of THIS blog article, you can see the link goes back to an older blog where we discussed that possibility in great detail.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Dave Barnes

"mostly by right-leaning Rasmussen and Quinnipiac polling outfits which are not among the most accurate pollsters"
Nate Silver rates Quinnipiac as A- and Rasmussen as C+, so you are half correct.

Winter

141 Things Donald Trump Has Said and Done That Make Him Unfit to Be President
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/07/donald_trump_is_unfit_to_be_president_here_are_141_reasons_why.html

Winter

Cruz blames liberal media for his loss in the promaries

Ted Cruz contemplates the unthinkable
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/ted-talks-hes-not-ready-to-endorse-yet-225690

"But [Ted Cruz] sees a more insidious hidden hand behind the media’s Trump obsession: liberal news executives who elevated Trump in the primary because they think he’s the only candidate Hillary Clinton can actually beat in a general election."

Winter

What we have been discussing for months starts to get into the "papers": A split of the GOP

Angry Voters May Catalyze New Party
http://dailycaller.com/2016/07/18/angry-voters-may-catalyze-new-party/

Winter

A moral view view of the Republican party:

"Trump 2016: The Three Shadows Haunting Cleveland"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rj-eskow/trump-2016-the-three-shad_b_11052416.html

The 3 shadows are:

"The first shadow is that of the extremist Republican right. Since the infamous Powell memo of 1970 it has invested billions in think tanks, academia, and politics to promote its agenda of individual greed over the common good."

"The second shadow is that of a new fundamentalism, both political and religious, whose followers worship an angry white god of their own creation. They’ve claimed their religion on behalf of their political ideology, but despise what it and all spiritual traditions really represent: generosity, equality, and community."
(Tea party)

"The third shadow is that of Trump himself, a bloated bleached-blond Narcissus transfixed by his own silhouette. “He worships at the altar of a stagnant pool,” says an old Dylan song, “and when he sees his reflection, he’s fulfilled.”"

Winter

A question from someone who never eatches US TV. Can Hillary air ads on Fox News? Will Fox News air them or will they refuse?

sgtrock

@Winter;

I'm not sure that Fox News would have the legal right to refuse the ads, actually. I know that the over the air networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, etc.) are required to give equal air time to all candidates. That certainly would cover the local Fox stations.

Don't know if that covers cable news like Fox News and CNN or not.

cornelius

Here is a funny picture:
https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/Wires/Online/2016-07-19/AP/Images/GOP2016Cleveland-14f86.jpg?uuid=-nXLuE1OEea_J0BRBoNvlg

What kind of moron poses like that? This is Trump's base. No wonder GOP has no interest in improving the education system in the US.

grouch

Tomi:

Any way I can get a picture to you? I tuned to a local CBS broadcast and the little digital tuner I use in my shop shows info about the current show and either the previous or next show. While the Donald was introducing his wife, it showed "20:59-21:59 BrainDead". Seemed appropriate, so I snapped a photo of the screen with Donald posing above that banner.

Tomi T Ahonen

grouch

Wow cool. Great. My email is tomi at tomiahonen dot com.. send it there. I don't open attachments from strangers so use the same email you had for this comment you posted, then I know its you.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

So day 1 of the Republican Convention. A few quick comments. Its again a mess. Not a train-wreck level of a mess, clearly its not designed and organized solely by the Trumpistas, but its still a mess.

The sequence of speakers? Bad order. It should have ended on the Melania speech if they wanted a nice ending, or on the General Flynn's (or arguably Rudy Giuliani's) speech if they wanted the anger. Obviously shoulda been Melania's but anyway. The timing and letting it wander onto Joni Ernst talking to a totally empty room with a pretty good speech.. bad ORGANIZATION and control.

Speech topics and sequence. A mess. They KNEW the theme for the day. Was there no coordination (obviously, there WAS no..) of the speeches? Obviously not. The conference was still in flux the weekend before (and both Trump and Republican party staff were stamping out the Stop Trump movement) so CLEARLY not. Perfect example. General Flynn introduces and explains why using term 'radical Islam' is (supposedly) vital. He explained it from a soldier's and military communications angle, that makes (some) sense. Its a fair argument for the GOP to make and for someone who is a retired Lt General ANd was Obama's Director of Military Intelligence - that is a good topic to cover, he has perfect credibility on it, and it works well on the arguement that ISIS in the horrible menace and the Obama-Clinton administration(s) are failing that war.

Except then, you can't have Giuliani already run a big argument about that same issue - BEFORE this big national security speech, by one of the last 5 finalists for Vice President. These speeches were not coordinated, their sequence should have been reversed or Giuliani should not have used that attack and should have picked some other angle, if this was the big constructed argument that Flynn was going to do just moments later.

There are tons of these kinds of issues that relate to bad ORGANIZATION and poor preparation for the event. It does not destroy the Convention, it will not matter a point in the final election outcome in November, but these are lost opportunities where the size of the post-Convention bump is raised or blunted based on these details. If this is how Trump manages his country, he is clearly a horribly bad manager (so bad in fact he might be able to bankrupt a casino or fail a vodka company).

Talking about Trump. So his ego has to get him onto the stage today. Ok, he did signal this was coming. He threatened he'd speak every day and he did now get 2 speeches, although his intro of his wife was the shortest speech of Trump's life. Too short in fact. But good. The entrance - that was what Trump wanted. He wanted to be introduced like a 1990s World Wrestling stars, with the smoke and backlighting, from the shadow. Wow Trump, you had to make today ALSO about you, that is now on all front pages rather than a picture of Melania or of Lt Gen Flynn or of Sen Joni Ernst etc. Really? SRSLY? That is your level of narcissism, you have to get that image onto the screens? It was not enough to do that - with Queen's song We Are the Champions playing even as Queen's remaining band members have asked you not to use their music for political purposes? It was not enough to do that kind of entrance when YOU speak on Day 4? No, Trump has to overshadow the others, always. Even if he forces himself to say one sentence, he has to fly in, say his sentence, listen to one speech and fly back to New York. For that one entrance.

And the most incredible Trumpism.. When 'his' Convention was going on, twice Trump had to get HIS voice or face to hijack the news coverage! Including during the mother of the victim in Benghazi, when Trump suddenly calls to talk live on TV because Trump wants even that moment to be about himself.

Now how good was this Day 1 of the Republican convention about winning for November? A hodgepodge of poorly coordinated speeches by second and third-tier speakers. The drama in the room about the delegation that walked out had its part of dischord but not to the level the fears were three months ago, of a hostile event. But to me, no arousing amazing speeches at all, on this Day 1. Ernst had a pretty good speech but she suffered from speaking to an empty room so it could not take off, where a full room of Republicans could have taken it in well. Flynn's speech was at times scary war-mongering, but gosh he would not have been ready for prime time as a speaker to use on the trail. He is not (at least yet) a good public speaker but did an ok job. Giuliani had I think the biggest emotional and energetic speech but it was now the grumpy angry uncle yelling from his lawn, this is the ever more grumpy Giuliani we kind of know already from nearly two decades. And Melania Trump? Why would she talk about Trump's business skills (and her greed haha, shopping and travel, you really want to go there?) this was THE moment to humanize Trump, his kids will brag about Trump business the next days anyway. She could have told the story of Trump the husband and make the image softer, but didn't. To be fair, its a terrifying position to be put in, having to talk at her husband's Convention, what has become a recent tradition - and the bar is set incredibly high with the only superstar speaker so far among Presidential spouces: Michelle Obama by 2012 (in 2008 she too was tentative). So we do need to grade her a bit 'on a curve' not to mention, English obviously is not her first language although she clearly is fluent in it.

Now does this Convention open the Republicans up for ridicule and debate and were there contradictions and nonsense and outright lies yes, of course. Both sides do that, every time. But to me it sounded remarkably worse this year with this day than usual. That may be partly because Trump has been making so many blatant lies and as the moderate wing of the Republican party was boycotting the event and Trump could not find sane Republicans to come and speak, the loonies were left and if they were willing to come and speak at Trump's event, it would be the pretty extreme bunch like Sen Tom Cotton and Sen Jeff Sessions who then would be ape'ing the same Trumpian sound-bites, or close synonyms to them.

Now, I'm not going to even start a point-by-point refutation of the big issues or even broad themes. These are mostly familiar talking points. I wanted to draw just two issues that to me seemed new and bizarre and may provide short-term ammunition for the Democrats in an 'unusual' kind of 'Christmas in July' kind of way. First 'Weapons of Mass Destruction'. Why would anyone want to bring this term back into the discourse and on such a huge stage as the PRIME TIME part of the Convention (it was Lt Gen Flynn). That was his written speech on Teleprompter. WMD? So in the same speech Flynn said that the US reputation abroad has sunk during Obama and that the US needs to go fight ISIS terrorists. That is a new hand grenade now tossed into the national security debate. So one, fighting ISIS? Thats Iraq and Syria. WMD? That was Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld lies, that got the USA into Iraq in the first place - into the horrible quagmire - and CREATED that terrorist group ISIS. And the mess by Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld is why US reputation by 2008 was the lowest internationally EVER MEASURED. And obviously, Obama has since restored the US reputation and he is now the most respected leader internationally. So this is a really bad, stupid, self-defeating argument to get into. And it plays to those REPUBLICANS who consider national security a voting issue - and fear Trump - and admire Hillary's calm demeanor, Secy of State experience and consistently sensible statements about foreign policy. Weapons of Mass Destruction? At Trump's event? By Trump's finalist for Veep? That is a big dischord and I think it will cause more trouble on the national security side. Again, this is just one speech, that was just one point, it will not result in even one percent of the final vote in November 8, but this is the kind of things you DON'T WANT in an organized event, where speeches are on Teleprompters, and the whole even is tightly choreographed.

(OH NO... CNN just running the news - Melania's speech was plagiarizing Michelle Obama's speech from 2008 !!!! How utterly incompetent is THIS. This becomes now the stain on her speech.)

Now the other thing I Was GOING to mention, haha, was in Sen Ernst's speech. She said according to the FBI, all 50 US states have ISIS terrorist already in them. That sounds like the kind of thing which probably is an exaggeration or not strictly true but now. Considering 'Make America Safe Again'. AGAIN. And the two mass shootings just leading up to the event of cops. Both with military-style assault rifles.. that to me, sounds like a dangerously huge door to open for the anti-gun lobby. If Sen Ernst tells us there are ISIS terrorists in every state, then why gosh why, is the GOP voting with the NRA against a sensible change to the terrorist watch list, that those who are on the 'No Fly' list - can go to a gun store and buy an assault rifle without any restrictions? Again, part of this is just normal politics but that point 'ISIS terrorists in all states' seems to me like it opens now a whole new argument by the anti-gun lobby on the other side - that gosh, why are Republicans voting against the simple law that people on the No-Fly terrorist watch list cannot buy assault rifles? In the immediate aftermath of the cop shootings - by assault rifles. Make America Safe 'AGAIN' ?? So very very VERY obvious simple rule - re-authorize the law preventing sales of military style rifles. Duh. I think this was a bad choice of a part in that speech. And I would guess that the fact-checkers will find it not a totally truthful statement either.

But yeah. Its not a dumpster fire because the Trump Campaign did not do this alone, it was 'tempered' by the members from the Republican party haha, but it was still messy. Not a disaster but not a strong showing. I expect strong timing discipline (so that the best speaker ends the first day exactly on time for Prime Time TV audiences) at the Democratic Convention. I expect far more coordination of the themes and speeches. The speakers today were mostly white, the Democrats are going to have far more diversity.

But most of all, the quality of the speeches and speakers. The Democrats will have likely the best lineup of political speakers in the modern TV era. That will be a stark contrast. It will be even more pronounced (the contrast) because there is no time between the Conventions (in the past there were often many weeks between the two). So for the Democrats, Bernie Sanders will speak on Day 1, Elizabeth Warren to speak on Day 1 AND yes Michelle Obama also on Day 1. These three alone are likely to outshine ALL of the best spaekers of the four days of the Republican Convention and we haven't even gotten to the top speakers of the Democratic side haha...

BTW of the quality of Trump's VP finalists. Sessions and Flynn? Is this really Trump and his best people? We've heard Newt and Christie. And we saw the mess of Mike Pence. Very very clearly, if Trump was to be President, he would not attract anywhere near the best talent in the USA and we could even see Sarah Palin with some Cabinet posting haha.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

grouch

Tomi:

Sorry for the delay. 2 photos sent, scaled to 1024x something from the original 4672x3104.

Do with them as you please. :D

Winter

Melania inspired by the best

Politics|Melania Trump's Speech Bears Striking Similarities to Michelle Obama's in 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/us/politics/melania-trump-speech.html

Tomi T Ahonen

OMG..

Hey this, THIS is THE exit !!!!

They planted an OBVIOUS plagiarized line. Trump will blame speech-writer and fire the person. Then Trump will be outraged how the evil media attacked his wife. And Trump uses THIS as the excuse to pull out. Well played..

Gosh, this could be it

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Winter

@Tomi
"And Trump uses THIS as the excuse to pull out. Well played."

Obviously, Cruz has his acceptance speech already written. But with Trump, you never know.

Isceald Glede

The 'no guns for no-flyers' law would make sense if there was some kind of sanity in the way names are added to and ideally removed from the no-fly list.
https://www.wired.com/2014/02/no-fly-coverup/

grogxd

“I mean, she was speaking in front of 35 million people last night,” Mr. Manafort said. “She knew that. To think that she would be cribbing Michelle Obama’s words is crazy.”

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jul/19/paul-manafort-there-was-no-cribbing-michelle-obama/

To me it sounds like Manafort is turning in Melania. Well, someone has to fall for this, and she already said that the speech was hers... but will Trump go along with him? I don't think so haha

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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