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May 14, 2016

Comments

Terry Legere

Just to sanity-check the narrative of always being correct, remember this:

> The Trump card is Donald the Trumpster. Now that he has formally announced, he locks the 9th slot. Trump has such strong name recognition that while he has zero chance of winning the Republican nomination and most see him totally as a joke candidate - even among Republicans, he is more hated than liked (59% of REPUBLICANS say they can never vote for Trump, he has the biggest negatives of any candidate that has ever run for President. Any candidate ever .He will never get the Republican nomination, that is certain).

chithanh

Well, Trump was able to get people to vote that normally don't vote. Voter turnout has reached unprecedented heights during the nomination. That was totally unexpected, and many places ran out of ballots. So you can't really blame Tomi that he didn't anticipate this.

So if 59% can never vote for Trump, all he needs to do is to mobilize an extra 20% of voters using cheap populist tactics and he will be in the game again. Of course, this was easier for Trump 1.0. Trump 3.0 however needs to control his statements more, which makes repeating this in the general election extremely difficult.

The only other candidate who could bring such an increase in voter turnout is Sanders, with the difference that Trump could personally pay for the Uber ride of every battleground state voter to the polling station and Sanders couldn't.

Millard Filmore

@Tomi: only half done reading as I post this. Adelson is on board the Trump Train with a few million.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/adelson-supporting-trump-100-million

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Terry and chithanh

Terry - fair enough but.. so said EVERYBODY else at the time. I was among the first to say, wait, Trump has a chance - and also among THE first to say, wait, he is the front-runner and can win it. Isn't that a fair assessment? Nobody was predicting a Trump victory in June of last year... but this blog was literally among the first to calculate it was actually becoming possible for Trump to win and I did it in the early Autumn already when almost all others said he will implode. I go by the numbers...

chithanh - haha good points but the main reason Trump won - which will never happen again - is that he was left alone to run with his clearly lunatic campaign which no Republican should ever have won. He was not challenged by his rivals when they had a year to do it, and point out all that was loonie about a Trump run. Those who voted for him are brainwashed lunatics or racists. He has so far won 42% of the Republican votes of the primary season (meaning 58% of Republicans preferred someone else and a good part of those 58% truly hate Trump). Republicans form less than a third of all voters, but Trump also finds some idiots and racists among Independents and among Democrats. Then some will not be voting for Hillary for whatever reasons which means Trump has a base in the general election of somewhere around 30% and a ceiling of around 40%. The rest goes to Hillary with possibly a slightly-larger-than usual share going to the most feasible Third Party candidate, so some Republicans refusing to vote for Trump would vote for say the Libertarian party candidate instead of Hillary. A 40 point maximum performance by Trump and say 3% to third party candidates would give Hillary a 57% vote and a 17 point margin. She'd win anything less red than Texas and Texas would go either way with a very long count.

If Trump does poorly he gets to 37% and Hillary up to 40% and the margin is 23 points. Mondale lost to Reagan in 1984 by 18 points and was vanquished from politics and became essentially a hermit (he is still alive). McGovern lost to Nixon in 1972 by 22 points. So thats roughly the level of drubbing Trump is headed into.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Millard

Yeah I saw that too. Adelson the Las Vegas casino billionaire who has funded Israel-friendly Republicans in the past, and who decided not to fund anyone in the primary race this year, now says he'll throw in 100 million dollars for Trump. That would sound like a lot, unless you were in debt by 45 million and Hillary has almost that much already in the bank... Adelson cannot pay Trump's campaign directly more than the legally limited maximum so almost all of that has to go to Trump's SuperPAC - meaning into negative ads against Hillary. So this money doesn't help at all build the ground-operation or the data base or get polling etc. It can only go into independent ads, mostly negative ads.

Meanwhile many Republicans are already complaining that Adelson has cut their support to go for Trump instead (lower-ticket politicians). So while Adelson throws all his money into the sinking ship of Trump, he also deprives down-ticket Republicans from money they desperately need to survive in the tsunami-wave coming in Hillary's massive campaign. Adelson seems exactly like the cooky billionaire you DON'T want to have political power at all haha... And I wonder just what all did Trump promise his fellow casino-developer? To make casinos legal in every state perhaps? What does 100 million dollars buy these days...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

@trex: here is a web site that constantly rails against pundits that have gotten it wrong for decades:

http://driftglass.blogspot.com/

cornelius

Hi Tomi,

Thank you for the analysis. One "correction" though: Trump declared that he will not reimburse himself from the funds that he will raise from the donors. At least that's what he said, that doesn't mean he will ever keep his promise. But I thought it was worth mentioning.

I think Clinton's victory will be by about 10% and not 20%, mainly because Trump's negative campaign will damage her. But the most important thing is that she will win. About flipping the Senate and the House, I think the Senate has a good chance to be flipped but not the House. The reason is that Republican donors will be reluctant to fund Trump, but they will divert the money to the Congress republicans. I think Adelson is an exception. So the Congress Republicans will receive more funds than in any previous election, so they will be competitive even if they can't ride the coattails of the republican nominee.

I added all the funds that the Republican candidates that have quit have raised. So excluding Trump, they amassed $711 M. Of this money their campaigns have a total of $19.4 left, also their superPACs have $47.9 M left. So let's assume that these $67.3 M will be returned to the donors and some of this money will end up back to the Republicans still running for Congress and maybe a small part will end up in Trump's coffers. But still 711 - 67 = 644 M have been wasted on losers. Wow! Compare that to the Democratic campaign where Sanders and the rest have amassed 194.5 M so far and let's say that Sanders will raise another $15 M so the total would be some $ 210 M of which let's say there will be no money left when Sanders will end his campaign. But for the Republicans, what a waste!

chithanh

@Tomi
I agree that Trump's ceiling among people who usually go to vote is about 40%. The odds are definitely against Trump in a big way.
However it is not difficult to imagine that a considerable amount of overlap exists between brainwashed racist lunatic idiots and non-voters. His (extremely difficult but not impossible) task is to find a sufficient number of those in battleground states and turn them into voters. At the same time Trump must avoid making them interested in politics enough to realize what a clown he is.

In any case, it will be fun to watch.

Winter

Manafort himself can become a liability. He is the driving force behind the torturers lobby. Of all the dispicable psychopaths that support Trump, Paul Manafort might be one of the most evil.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/04/paul_manafort_isn_t_a_gop_retread_he_s_made_a_career_of_reinventing_tyrants.html

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/04/13/top-trump-aide-led-the-torturers-lobby.html

Winter

Is Trump broke?

Quote:
"It is fitting that he gets a pension from the Screen Actors Guild.

He is an actor who plays a man worth $10 billion."

http://www.pmcarpenter.com/2016/05/is-trump-uh-like-broke.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/andy-ostroy/what-is-broke-donald-hiding_b_9917704.html

http://www.thealphapages.com/content/trump-change-is-donald-trump-broke

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-is-trump-broke-2009-5?IR=T

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

More small signs. Bloomberg just reported about voter registration in battleground states. They measured 10 of the states. In three the voter registration is not by party so there is no indication of which way winds are blowing in Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin (Obama won all those). But in seven states the registration is by party. In four states - Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada - the new registration by Democrats is more than by Republicans. Obama won 3 of those and lost NC. This speaks badly to Trump's chances of turning PA into a battleground state.

Three of the seven are the opposite way, Republican registration is up more than Democrats in Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire. Note that these are so small states by electoral college votes, that Pennsylvania alone has more EC votes than these 3 states combined. Obama won all three both in 2008 and 2012. Hillary can afford to lose all three if she picks up North Carolina alone and its a wash. Just having more registered voters doesn't mean you will win that state, but if you intend to win a battlegrounds state and think you have momentum on your side, then increased voter registration would be a critical starting point. Even by this measure, Trump and the Republicans are down 70 to 19 in EC votes compared to 2012.

Personally I think Colorado won't be in play because of the strong Hispanic vote there, but Iowa and New Hampshire could be places where Trump puts up a strong showing, either could be one of the battleground states to flip for him. Then again, I think Hillary will pick up not just North Carolina but Arizona, Georgia, Missouri etc.. Georgia has fresh polling out with Hillary down only by 4 points (Obama lost it by double digits)

But most importantly that is the story about Pennsylvania. Trump's 'Rust Belt' strategy needs not just PA but also Michigan and New Jersey to have any chance (plus winning Ohio, Wisconsin; and holding Indiana). If Democratic voter registration is AHEAD of Republican, in a state that went by double digits to Obama and where Hillary is up by 7 currently... pretty fair to say Trump's Rust Belt strategy is not looking solid. Still, he has six months...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Winter

OMG so similar minds think alike, eh? I loved that quote "We do understand: You're a piss-poor businessman on the brink of financial collapse. If that were untrue, you'd simply release your damn tax returns. Would you not?"

Haha yeah, several other authors came immediately to the same conclusion. For Trump to say nothing in my tax returns is RED FLAG that something is there - and its most likely that he is nearly broke..

Gotta luv it, thanks for all the links. Wow..

PS so if Trump loses his TV business (was ending anyway) and all the sponsorships, and his brand value collapses and his various side-lines like his suits etc are taken off the store shelves - and then he loses his election by landslide and is refused any visibility on TV, and he turns out to be nearly broke.. wouldn't that put our Trumpster on suicide-watch after the election? I don't want him to die. I want him to live a long long life with his mental faculties intact, into his 100s in his age, so he can live forever in the shame of what he's doing now. But judging by the coward that he clearly is, he probably would quietly commit suicide some year, and nobody will even notice for many weeks..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Millard Filmore

Finally a Trump story about cell phones. A typical out of touch rich guy assuming that what he sees is the way the whole world works. We here in the USA have $100 monthly cell phone bills, so that must be how it works everywhere, right?

Here Trump is ranting about Syrian refugees ...

"... Why — Where do they get cell phones? Who pays their monthly bill? What do they do? Don’t they get billed by the phone company or something? … How come they have cell phones?"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141451666

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-has-no-doubt-refugees-will-stage-a-9-11-scale-attack-in-us/ar-BBt50r7?ocid=spartanntp

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Millard

LOL !!!

Trump last worried about the 'price' of cellphones back in the 1980s when a phone cost 2,000 dollars and the monthly service charge was 500 dollars on top of that, AND you had to pay a dollar per minute phone charges. That is what his 'Make America Great Again' mind thinks mobile phones and service still costs today. And he has no idea that people can buy new smartphones for 50 dollars without contract in the world outside of the USA with pre-paid SIM cards that give local phone calls at 2 cents per minute and obviously won't charge you ANYTHING to receive calls. Yeah. How come these Syrian refugees have cellphones. Oh, Mr Trump did you know AMERICAN HOMELESS people have mobile phones too. Must be paid too much, lets start to tax them and cut the programs for the homeless..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

virgil

Tomi, not true. Scott Adams said in August that Trump might win in a tight election http://blog.dilbert.com/post/126589300371/clown-genius - he has since updated his prediction (in september!) to "will win in a landslide victory".

Not sure how exactly you can't see this coming. The game is far from over, if you were wrong once about nomination, even if everybody else was wrong - that should at least give you pause.

chithanh

@Tomi
> Democratic voter registration is AHEAD of Republican

It is not at all clear that increased Democratic voter registration is helping Hillary. I think (don't have solid data though) that these registrations are mainly people who were mobilized by Sanders.

What happens if Sanders does not become the candidate? Polling suggests that Sanders supporters would rather vote for Trump or stay at home than vote for Hillary.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279430-nearly-half-of-sanders-voters-in-west-virginia-would-vote

cornelius

@chithanh
West Virginia is weird and it is not representative for the other states. Besides, those who voted Sanders in WV were not Sanders supporters, they were Trump supporters. They only voted Sanders because they hate Clinton because of her remarks about replacing the coal mining with clean energy solutions. You can pick a poll that fits your delusions, that's OK, but it won't change the reality.

cornelius

BTW, I predicted before that once the Republican race is over, a lot of Trump supporters will vote against Clinton. And that's true, but WV is way above the average because the WV residents hate Clinton more than any other state.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi everybody

That thing about Trump fake second (and third) personalities as his publicist (and formerly also under yet a third alias as fictional VP of Trump enterprises).

This I think could be a massive total comprehensive collapse of 'everything' about Trump. He is denying the recording when he previously admitted it. He has testified in COURT about the previous alias so this is (or has been) a Trump pattern in his behavior.

The smart thing would be to immediately admit it, say it was a joke, it was related to a messy divorce and he hasn't done it for 25 years since.

The DUMB thing is to deny something you are on tape doing, and which has been reported in numerous contemporary press stories as normal Trumpism. This would set Trump nonsense to a new level - is he really 'clinically' mentally unstable, a possible split personality or total reality denial. If a Presidential candidate is decided by the electorate to be actually 'crazy' and not just occasionally act weird or mad, that is a total end to the career. We last saw that with Thomas Eagleton who was initially George McGovern's VP pick in 1972. He was forced to quit the race when the issue of Eagleton having seeked medical help for his depressions, came into light.

Sarah Palin of 2008 was a far more mild case, she seemed like a raving lunatic but only in that fanatical way of being ill-prepared. Not 'clinically insane' (yet, that came in her later years when we noticed it was even worse haha). And both of those were on the VP slot. Now its Trump on the top, and he seems to want to pursue this path by sheer denial. That I think is politically dangerous, even after all that Trump has been doing. Saturday Night Live was really quick to pounce on it in their cold opening (having Trump on the phone, use a fake name Tony Pepperoni, as his pretend publicist)

To me, this seems like the most damaging line of attacks about Trump which also ties in with everything else he says and does. He is mentally unstable, he is not aware of reality. So he can say weird things and deny reality at any time (hey, that reminds me of... Elop!) and THAT to me, would be a devastating attack. Your guy is genuinely insane. I think Trump's people should get out from this story really fast, have Trump admit yeah, it was him in his youth, he hasn't done it since. He had now just forgotten because there are all those Trump impersonators, to him now hearing the tape, it didn't sound like himself. But yeah, on reflection, yeah, that was back in the early 1990s... get it over with. You can't run for President of the USA if the image you have is, that you are clinically insane.

Oh, the 'summer doldrums' indeed... this was supposed to be the peaceful time. Hey, if the Washington Post didn't receive that recording from 1991 from the journalist at People Magazine, who would have perhaps had it and wanted it out NOW ? I somehow smell a vague sense of rat here, specifically a Cruz-smelling rat, don't you? Hillary doesn't want the damage out like this, in an uncoordinated way. She is waiting for the big concentrated all-battleground-states destruction ad campaign of 91 million dollars coming in a couple of weeks, no reason to water down that power leaking a story like this now. To me it sounds like a Ted Cruz move. They had this in their pocket, they think they still have a chance of Trump is seen as totally mentally sick, and are using it as (yet another) desperation play, rather than sit on it forever...

But smart play by Trump would be to kill this story in the next few days. Don't let it become the national narrative that Trump has secret second personalities and he denies their existence and might even be aware they exist. OUCH.

I am not a schitzophrenic but I play one on Twitter haha... a real schitzo, wow, that would be something. It also would kind of explain some of the Trumpisms haha

Tomi Ahonen :-)

chithanh

@cornelius
> Besides, those who voted Sanders in WV were not Sanders supporters, they were Trump supporters.
> You can pick a poll that fits your delusions, that's OK, but it won't change the reality.

Ok then can I have some of your reality? Which poll says that W.Va primary Sanders voters would actually choose Trump over Sanders in the general election?

Besides I did not claim that Sanders supporters would go vote for Trump in droves as you seem to imply. I wrote that it is not at all clear that increased Democratic voter registration is helping Hillary. Which is quite a different thing.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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