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« iPhone 5SE: Right phone for expanding Apple markets at right price and right specs - but boy is this years LATE for Apple | Main | Grab Bag of Misc Mobile Stats for the Day »

March 30, 2016

Comments

tz

You thought Trump never had a chance.

Are the women of Cologne, Hamburg, or Sweden safe if they don't wear burkas?

How are things in Brussels and Paris? Or even Calais.

Since you will have to convert to Islam and approve of things like Female Genital Mutilation, Sharia law, etc. you may as well write a post justifying why you prefer all of the above in your own Country so feel free to bother about a country in a different hemisphere and what one person campaigning merely suggests.

Trump is the immune response to an infection. Failure to identify the infection won't stop it.

Winter

@tz
"Are the women of Cologne, Hamburg, or Sweden safe if they don't wear burkas?"

Yes, they are. Have a look at the local news.

@tz
"How are things in Brussels and Paris? Or even Calais."

Actually, this would have been a "typical" year in the 1970s with its many terrorist organizations. So for me, it is not that traumatic.

But "no one will get in" is obviously useless as all the terrorists were legal citizens, and many were even born in Belgium/France. As such, these crimes were not very different from the Oklahoma bombing or the Newtown shooting in the USA.

@tz
"Since you will have to convert to Islam and approve of things like Female Genital Mutilation, Sharia law, etc."

Genital mutilation is not so much an Islam thing, as a sub Saharan African thing (see map).
http://www.who.int/reproductivehealth/topics/fgm/prevalence/en/

It is also not an Islam thing, it is also practiced by non-muslims. It is older than Islam and the is is nowhere to be found in the Islamic scriptures.

Sharia law is a rather nebulous concept. What people call the sharia law is almost always just a religious stamp on local customs. You confuse the drive to install an Islamic theocracy like Iran or ISIS/Daesh with practicing law.

Here for lay people:

The many faces of Sharia
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/621126.stm

Here for those who rally want to know the details:

SHARIA INCORPORATED
A Comparative Overview of the Legal Systems of Twelve Muslim Countries in Past and Present
https://openaccess.leidenuniv.nl/bitstream/handle/1887/21170/file221087.pdf?sequence=1

@tz
"Trump is the immune response to an infection. Failure to identify the infection won't stop it."

[rant]
More like an autoimmune response. Trump is part of the exact same phenomenon as ISIS/Daesh and Al Qaida. This is a nationalistic fundamentalism that wants to isolate the natives/true believers from the big bad world outside.

As such, the populists and fundamentalists want the same thing: People should not mingle. Christians and Muslims, Black and White, Germanic and Slavic "races", they should all concentrate in their own ethnically purified homelands.

Trump is the natural ally of Daesh. When the USA expels all muslims and withdraws from the Arab lands, and Daesh expels all non-muslims, then there will be "peace". Daesh won't bother the USA, the USA won't bother Daesh.

Muslim fundamentalists target Europe exactly because in Europe Muslims can live in freedom and prosper. It is the likes of Le Pen, Wilders, and De Winter that want to make an end to the freedom and prospering of Muslims (and, sometimes, Jews and blacks).
[/rant]

cornelius

@Tomi
Is there a typo at the end of the 10th line? Shouldn't the last word read "stronger" instead of "stranger"?

@tz
In addition to Winter's answer I've got to ask you: are you genuinely concerned with the Muslim women's situation?
And Trump is not the immune response to an infection. He is a knee-jerk reaction to a perceived infection. Terrorists are on both sides of the isle. Most Muslims are not terrorists. But don't you worry, Trump is working hard to change that.

@magnamic
Your pain gives me pleasure.

@John Smith
Debates always give a chance to the challenger to come back, and Sanders is very far behind in the remaining states. Clinton is now debating whether to loose votes by giving Sanders a chance or by being perceived as a coward. It's a loose-loose situation for Clinton, she just doesn't know yes which is the lesser evil. No matter what, New York is going not only to reverse all of Sanders' gains in the previous 5 or 6 states, NY is going to send Sanders back on the ropes where he belongs.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi cornelius

no, I meant 'stranger' as in Trump being deliberately strange...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

winter

Trump is doing his best to get hated by even more voters. In this case the minority of women who might consider voting for him.

The Daily 202: Abortion gaffe underscores why Trump would not put Wisconsin in play during a general election
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2016/03/31/daily-202-abortion-gaffe-underscores-why-trump-would-not-put-wisconsin-in-play-during-a-general-election/56fc082d981b92a22dc402c7/

=====
The new Marquette poll backs it up. Overall, 7 in 10 Wisconsinites view Trump unfavorably. In head-to-head matchups of Wisconsin voters, John Kasich led Clinton by nine points (49 percent to 38 percent) and Cruz tied her (44-44). But the Democratic front-runner beat Trump by 10 points (47-37). Bernie Sanders, a democratic socialist without Clinton’s high negatives, beat Trump by 19 points (54-35) when those polled were forced to choose.
=====

=====
In addition to the three-quarters of women who view him unfavorably, “so do nearly two-thirds of independents, 80 percent of young adults, 85 percent of Hispanics and nearly half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Those findings, tallied from Washington Post-ABC News polling, fuel Trump’s overall 67 percent unfavorable rating — making Trump more disliked than any major-party nominee in the 32 years the survey has been tracking candidates.”
======

cornelius

Hey guys,
I found this article
http://prospect.org/article/why-hillary-wont-be-indicted-and-shouldnt-be-objective-legal-analysis
What do you guys think? Do we have any lawyers among us to give us an opinion on the article?

Winter

@Cornelius
"What do you guys think?"

It is obvious that the hunt for Hillary has little to do with the legality of what she actually did. The analysis you link to looks comprehensive. The fact that after years of sifting through her emails, there have still not surfaced any smoking guns is itself telling.

But I am pretty sure anyone can be indicted in the USA:

Ham Sandwich Nation: Due Process When Everything Is a Crime
http://columbialawreview.org/ham-sandwich-nation_reynolds/
=====
As Tim Wu recounted in 2007, a popular game in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York was to name a famous person—Mother Teresa, or John Lennon—and decide how he or she could be prosecuted:

It would then be up to the junior prosecutors to figure out a plausible crime for which to indict him or her. The crimes were not usually rape, murder, or other crimes you’d see on Law & Order but rather the incredibly broad yet obscure crimes that populate the U.S. Code like a kind of jurisprudential minefield: Crimes like “false statements” (a felony, up to five years), “obstructing the mails” (five years), or “false pretenses on the high seas” (also five years). The trick and the skill lay in finding the more obscure offenses that fit the character of the celebrity and carried the toughest sentences. The, result, however, was inevitable: “prison time.”
=====

For instance, Martha Stewart's case fits perfectly in the above.

cornelius

Wow, thanks Winter. That's exactly why I didn't want to become famous. I knew it :-) Scary though...

Winter

Some more results on Trumps impopularity. If his goal would have been to destroy the GOP's chances and lose the presidential elections, he could not have done any better.

Donald Trump is now the least popular American politician in three decades
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-trump-unpopularity-20160401-story.html

======
Overall, that leads to a very large gender gap in perceptions of Trump. Among all women, 70% have a negative view of him, while among men, 58% do. Having a positive view are 23% of women and 36% of men, Gallup found.

If Trump wins the GOP nomination, a key question will be whether he can do anything to change those impressions. Usually, however, political candidates' images get worse, not better, during a campaign.
======

Winter

And here is why Drumpf is running: He is an agent for the Democrats!

http://www.bustle.com/articles/151424-this-donald-trump-conspiracy-theory-will-put-your-tinfoil-hat-to-shame

http://peakenergy.blogspot.nl/2016/03/is-donald-trump-democratic-secret-agent.html


Its not Hillary, Drumpf is an Illuminati
http://allnewspipeline.com/Gingrich_Trump_Illuminati_Stunner.php

Reallity is so much better than all these tired old conspiracy theorists. Drumpf is better than fiction. You could not make this up.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi cornelius and Winter

Good stuff... now. That DC Madam sleazy attorney and the big revellation coming in the next 10 days or so. I've been digging around and the only one of the 5 candidates who has rumors - and there have been several - of any kind of sexual impropriety is.. Ted Cruz.

(Just in case you missed it - the old DC Madam scandal of the escort service madam who was convicted in 2007 and committed suicide in 2008 - her attorney has a list of 815 names of various DC area clients of that time (up to 2007) who had used the Madam's call girls and some political careers were ruined by the handful that were exposed back then but these 815 names have never been relased. The (ex) attorney (ie licence revoked) said that someone from the current 5 candidates is on that list (might be one on both sides of the aisle by the wording but probably is only one of 5) which would almost certainly end that candidate's career almost instantly. The Gary Hart / Herman Cain end to the political run.)

So yeah. It does seem now that its likely Ted Cruz. Before the story broke, Anonymous had been threatening Cruz. Now there is fresh dirt and someone has a page of calls to Texas and they suggest Cruz should be very worried about this DC Madam list. Meanwhile there was also that tabloid story of 5 times that Cruz had supposedly been unfaithful to his wife.

Now. First. It can be that the attorney is just bluffing or the 'big catch' is just some low-level operative on some campaign and he's hyped the story. Or that its say Bill Clinton which would not end Hillary's run but would take Bill effectively out of the surrogate role this year haha.

Secondly, it can be anyone of the five. Of the 5, Bernie and Hillary were in DC at the time up to 2007. Cruz had been in DC up to 2003 then moved back to Texas, so he could be on the DC Madam's infamous list and could still have used her services the many times Cruz came to DC to argue in front of the Supreme Court. John Kasich was in DC earlier but had moved out to Ohio where he was an investment banker so if its Kasich, his use of the prostitutes would have been close to a decade prior to 2007. And Trump, well, he was never living in DC but visited the city at times, and would seem like the type of guy who wouldn't mind paying for expensive hookers if he felt like it but in terms of proximity he's the furthest geographically. Obviously Hillary could be woman or man (I don't know if the DC Madam provided male escorts too, but can't see why not, it was her busines to provide prostitutes) and a woman escort would add a wicked gay twist to the Hillary option - but also - it could be theoretically that Hillary was ordering women for Bill, who knows exactly what kind of marriage they have haha.

But of the 5 (excluding Bill) the only one that has any whiff of sexual scandals is Ted Cruz and there are several instances of them. It would seem therefore - as that attorney wrote to the Supreme Court that this information is crucial for US voters to know before they cast their votes - whoever it is, that person's political career and run for the nomination in 2016 will be over essentially instantly. And boy would that now utterly tumble the race.

If it is Cruz and lets say the info comes out after Wisconsin has voted - Cruz might quit the race overall - then do his delegates become free agents and how would Trump and Kasich split them up. Kasich would obviously get the non-Trump vote for the last races and end up likely with more delegates than Cruz has now, but could Kasich get to more than Trump? Even if he received the majority of Cruz's delegates, I think its unlikely Kasich can get to more than Trump. And a Trump facing only Kasich - who won't attack Trump (much) could be taken apart by relentless Trump attacks and Trump might clinch.

Then what if Cruz only suspends but doesn't quit - so he can hold his delegates and not give too many to Trump. But Cruz would be done in any case.

What about Marco Rubio. He has more delegates still today than Kasich. If Cruz quits, would Rubio suddenly jump in and say - wait, I've won more than Kasich and I have more delegates, I will come and resume my candidacy..

Its REALLY like a Reality TV show now. We know in the next episode one of the 5 remaining candidates will be eliminated, suddenly, in an unanticipated extra rival-elimination round. Like a hand grenade being passed from one person to the next with the pin removed and having an unknown duration fuse. It will kill off someone.

But whichever of the 5 it is (gotta be Cruz, a distant second to me is Bernie - or else its 'just' Bill Clinton, not Hillary) that is a total change to the race the moment the news breaks.

Gosh I'm again out of popcorn.. Just when we thought this race had seen it all (lets abandon NATO, lets get Japan and South Korea to develop nukes, lets punish women for abortions..) now this.

PS - very often the political leadership has known about the sex scandals in the past. Its possible the Republican leadership know this about Ted Cruz and either were willing to look the other way - or perhaps even more nephariously - they wanted Cruz to take out Trump, then they'd spill the beans on Cruz to bring in their guy (Kasich or perhaps Paul Ryan)

PSPS - for me I'm totally European about sex scandals, they have no relevance to how you are able to govern and I wouldn't vote for or against someone because of one. But we are looking at the US electorate and they won't forgive this haha. That career is instantly over. (although if its Trump, his core supporters probably would remain, only he'd fall from 40% to something like 25% and lose the remaining races, if he didn't quit)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

hi everybody

Just in case you didn't notice, I just posted the next of my articles in the election series. Now that the brokered convention (contested, deadlocked) has become the most likely outcome on the GOP side, I mapped out the scenarios for each candidate. Lets move the current discussions also there.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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