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February 23, 2016

Comments

suvi-tuuli reenkola

Ok

Catriona

Interesting. North America leads in unique smartphone adoption. Does North America include Mexico, or is that Latin America? Also, who is in APAC Rich?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi suvi-tuuli and Catriona

Catriona - yeah N Am has taken that lead now (was held by Europe). If Japanese featurephones were included as smartphones - they tend to be better than most premium smartphones on all specs - then APAC Rich would be higher. But Japan is such a high % of that region so when their dumbphones are included in the regional average, it brings down the 'smartphone penetration' rate. And in terms of individual countries, a dozen small countries are far above USA's smartphone penetration rate starting here in Hong Kong, but with UAE, Singapore, Finland-Sweden-Norway etc.

On regions. I mentioned that Mexico is counted in LatAm (as is Central America and the Caribbean). So N Am is only USA + Canada (obviously population-weighted). APAC Rich is Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong etc the so-called Tiger nations of Asia, plus Oceania ie Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, New Caledonia etc.

APAC Rich is the most necessary distinction in the table, separating it from the Emerging Asia part. Emerging Asia is China, India, Indonesia, Philippines etc - and when you compare those to Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore etc - there is the largest gulf within a geographic region. So most who report, lump Asia as one entity. That hides the incredibly rich and advanced 'Tiger' nations, and it artificially raises the total averages for the rest of Asia.

This division of those 8 regions is what I have always used in all of my regional split, for more than a decade, including my presentations, workshops, this blog, and my published reports and forecasts.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS

More news about the abusive monopoly. WP is going down, ...and it's all over the Web!!!! Many of the articles (below) have comments with readers trashing microsoft and WP (rightly so) but you can also see the astroturfers too, hard at work and repeating the delusional talking-point that microsoft will win by flooding the IOS/ANDROID systems with all their wonderful (slow, buggy and crappy) apps ...too funny!. The lesson is that everyone is figuring out that WP is just CRAP!

http://www.pcworld.com/article/3035100/phones/android-leads-and-windows-phone-fades-in-gartners-smartphone-sales-report.html

http://liliputing.com/2016/02/is-anybody-buying-windows-phones-yes-but-not-many-people.html

http://www.htxt.co.za/2016/02/19/blackberry-and-windows-phone-are-exhaling-their-last-breath/

http://www.technobuffalo.com/2016/02/18/mobile-os-market-share-gartner/

http://www.neowin.net/news/smart-phone-sales-for-2015-are-in-and-its-not-looking-good-for-windows-phones

http://mspoweruser.com/gartner-confirms-windows-phones-1-1-market-share-in-q4-2015/

https://rcpmag.com/articles/2016/02/18/windows-phone-share-just-1-percent.aspx

...etc. etc. etc.

All you microsoft astroturfers remember to yell out before dinner that: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE! ...EVEN A SURFACE PHONE!!!!!

NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS

Please notice that all things Windows in "anything" are "disastrous" or "disasterous" or ...no matter how you spell it...Windows is just a "DISASTER" ...want proof, then investigate windows 10.

All you microsoft astroturfers remember to yell out before breakfast too, that: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE! ...EVEN A SURFACE PHONE!!!!!

Henry Sinn

Hi Tomi

Please see e-mail

Would like to chat. Left-field (not quite mobile), very real global opportunity.

Wayne Borean


@NO ONE

OK, we get it. You don't like Windows. We get it

@Tomi,

Do you include Turkey and Israel in Middle East or Europe?

Am curious if South Africa differs wildly from the rest of the continent.

The table is difficult to read. Can't you embed a gif/jpg of your spreadsheet? That's what I do with WordPress.


George

I believe that many poor 3rd people have cheap dual sim China phones,
With two prepaid SIM
Furthermore they swap SIM cards very often even monthly, to get a better deal
But the operator still consider that abandoned number as active for a year after last active use
Even if only 150 million people do this, the survey counts them as 1 billion active users
So data could be skewed

NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS

Now here is an interesting windows phone review with a "poll" from a microsoft fan boy site:

http://www.neowin.net/news/poll-are-you-planning-to-buy-a-windows-phone

The poll shows almost 50% won't consider windows phone AND this is mostly Microsoft fan's forum but everyone knows the majority of them are just astroturfers. Everyone please vote! The astroturfers are voting early and often in an attempt to skew the results, LoL!!!!!

And of course from the world of CRAP surface software from the same ...Ahemmm microsoft fan site:

http://www.neowin.net/news/ipad-pro-outsells-surface-line-up

That's only the "iPad Pro" against the ENTIRE surface line-up ...too funny!

News about the "windows 10" store. Just more CRAP from microsoft: of course "developer feedback is anything but positive."

http://www.extremetech.com/computing/223246-the-windows-10-store-still-isnt-working

http://www.extremetech.com/computing/221714-the-windows-10-store-has-a-serious-app-discovery-issue-and-its-developers-arent-pleased

"Even Microsoft, it seems, doesn't have much confidence in its Windows 10 Mobile OS. The company has only committed to support it for two years!":

http://www.fiercemobileit.com/story/can-microsoft-stop-downward-spiral-its-windows-mobile-os/2016-02-19

All you microsoft astroturfers remember to yell out before lunch too, that: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE! ...EVEN A SURFACE PHONE!!!!!

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi George

You misunderstood what was surveyed by Pew. Yes, its true many people - not just poor people - for many reasons have multiple SIM cards. Like me, I have currently 7 active SIM cars, only 3 are based out of Hong Kong, the other 4 are local SIM cards in countries that I visit relatively often. And I'm not exactly haha, poor.

The measurement of SIM cards, mobile subscriptions, is done usually from counting mobile operator data and yes, the operators have an incentive to keep reporting dead SIM cards because one of the industry key metrics is the 'Subscriber count' or count of customers. They don't like to report that their customer numbers went down, so operators tend to want to keep SIM cards as active. But often regulators have stepped in to require a limit to how long an inactive SIM card should be counted, usually this is 3 months. So its not today as large a problem as it was about 5 years ago.

But that Pew survey is not about SIM cards or subscriptions. It is a CONSUMER survey of normal people, asking if they own a mobile phone (and if they do, then a second question, if they own a smartphone). This has nothing to do with how MANY accounts someone has, ie it is not an attempt to count SIM cards and there is no systematic error here of overcounting in that manner. This is a pure consumer survey, do you own a mobile phone? Yes/No. They don't try to map HOW MANY phones we own, just whether we own one. It is VERY valuable and VERY RARE info, as no mobile operator can get this data (as it would require knowing their competitor CUSTOMER data which nobody is willing to share).

So you make a good point that is relevant to some mobile statistics, but not this one. This is a consumer survey of handset ownership. I hope this helped explain the difference.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS

More news from the world of microsoft failures ...doesn't it just warm your heart to see an abusive monopolist struggle and fail ...often! :-)

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/02/02/is-it-time-for-micrsoft-to-exit-the-smartphone-bus.aspx

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/02/05/no-microsofts-surface-isnt-beating-the-ipad.aspx

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/02/02/forget-facebook-and-microsoft-apple-and-samsung-ar.aspx

And it appears no one is interested in porting apps to WP. Too funny!

http://www.androidpolice.com/2016/02/25/microsoft-confirms-android-to-windows-app-tool-project-astoria-is-dead/

Mocking microsoft is a becoming a common theme!

"one last "Hail Mary" aimed at pulling Windows 10 Mobile from its current worm-eaten existence." :-) at:
http://betanews.com/2016/02/25/microsoft-demolish-windows-bridge-for-android-coffin/

"Darn customers and their 'I-just-wanna-use-a-working-phone' desires" :-) at:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/01/28/windows_mobile_faces_cant_upgrade_wont_upgrade_challenge/

You just got to love some of the comments, read while enjoying some popcorn is my recommendation:

"I had a Lumia 720 for 2 years, which sadly died a hideous death which was its own fault. It kept loading Cortana up so I had to beat it with an axe."

The "Windows phone landfill in full swing."

"The utter cluster-f*ck that is Windows 10 deserves every bit of dung being flung at it."

"Windows 95 Phone? Yeah! Bring it on!"

" M$ seems to have succeeded only in completely divorcing itself from reality. Again"

"After 22 years of getting excited about Microsoft almost getting it right in the next version, I think I'm finally getting over it."

...lot's more. Too funny!!!!!!

All you microsoft astroturfers remember to yell out before afternoon tea, that: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE! ...EVEN A SURFACE PHONE!!!!!

NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS

Hi Tomi, Your thoughts? ....Is this another possible direction for smartphones and also notice that "was in talks with telecom companies about possibly using their networks to operate its own mobile phone services in the United States."

http://m.tech.firstpost.com/news-analysis/build-your-own-google-handset-reconstructs-smartphone-257640.html

To all microsoft astroturfers: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE! ...EVEN A SURFACE PHONE!!!!!

NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS

More news for the abusive monopolist (even typical astroturfer sites see the train in the tunnel):

http://mspoweruser.com/idc-finally-gives-windows-phone-predicts-ever-falling-sales/

https://redmondmag.com/articles/2016/03/01/last-call-for-windows-mobile.aspx?admgarea=BDNA

http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2449780/idc-windows-phone-is-going-to-have-a-pretty-rough-year

Got to enjoy the comments such as:
"Windows Phone is going to have a pretty rough year" There is other interesting news I heard recently: "The sky is blue"

To all microsoft astroturfers stop talking out your arse and yell out: NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS ON A PHONE! ...EVEN A SURFACE PHONE!!!!!

Ricky Peña

Hi Tomi,

Thanks for your informative blog. Wondering how this new information on smartphone penetration would change the data you presented re cameraphones and number of photos taken in your Aug 2014 blog. Appreciate your updated insights on any consumer trends and/or data that impacts on the subject.

Thanks.

Ricky

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Available for Consulting and Speakerships

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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