So we are now one day before the first state votes in the US Presidential nomination fights. So I'll do my forecast. Bear in mind that its four months and a week to this race and a week is a long time in politics. Any one debate can tumble the race and there usually are all sorts of issues. But I do think Trump is now a very likely winner. So I wanted to try a total-race forecast, just for the fun of it. So here goes. I predict Trump wins the nomination (not that brave) but that Trump also secures the nomination outright with enough delegates that he will not face a deadlocked convention. I predict Trump takes 53% of the delegates. He clinches the race on June 7, the last day. I predict Cruz comes in second with 32% of the delegates, Rubio finishes third with 11% and Jeb Bush (yes) comes in fourth with 4% of the delegates. Trump wins 39 states and regions, Cruz gets 13, Rubio 3 and Jeb wins one region (Puerto Rico).
So lets look how this goes in my scenario. Trump wins now in Iowa which gives him unstoppable momentum through February when he also wins New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Huckabee and Santorum quit after Iowa, Fiorina and Christie quit after NH and Carson quits after South Carolina. After February Trump holds 68 delegates (51%), Cruz has 29 (22%), Rubio has 16 (12%) and Jeb has 10 (8%). Carson, Kasich, Paul, Huckabee and Christie have from 1 to 3 delegates each. Trump brings his 'huge' lead and unstoppable 'I win all the time' show to Super Tuesday on March 1.
On March 1 we find new winners. Cruz gets 3 states and Rubio wins in 2. Cruz gets a big haul winning in his home state of Texas but has to split the spoils there with Trump who comes second. But overall, out of all states up on March 1, Trump wins more, taking 9 states and regions. Trump will be at 412 delegates (50%); Cruz will have 274 (33%); Rubio 75 (9%) and Jeb 42 (5%). The race winnows down with the last of the pretenders quitting (Kasich, Paul) and only four continue onwards.
March brings more wins to the players including Jeb's only state/region Puerto Rico. From March 15 the winner-take-all states start. The fate of Florida will be well known long before the voting happens but it will still be a disappointment that Rubio AND Bush both lose their home state to Trump. As Florida is a winner-take-all state, those lost votes will be fatal to Rubio's chances. March 15 is when Marco is mathematically eliminated from the chance of winning the majority of delegates but he will continue the race, because its not certain that Trump (or long-shot Cruz) can lock the nomination and if the convention is deadlocked, Rubio's delegates can tip the balance. But Jeb finally quits after coming fourth in Florida and his voters mostly migrate to Rubio.
The last primaries of March bring the delegate race between the three left in the running so, that Trump has 824 delegates or two thirds of the 1,236 needed to clinch. He has taken 50% of all delegates awarded and has won 24 states to that point. Cruz is in second with 598 delegates (36%) and 12 states. Rubio is in third with 123 delegates (7%) and 2 states won. Jeb has suspended his campaign with 100 delegates and one region won.
April brings more states, and the last voting day in April, 26th, is the date when Cruz's chances of getting a majority of delegates becomes mathematically eliminated. Like Rubio in March, Cruz will not stop running, because its not certain Trump can get to a majority of delegates and Cruz is far ahead of Rubio in that race and in a deadlocked nomination situation, Cruz can still conceivably win the nomination even if Trump had more votes, if Cruz and an alliance of partners can get more delegates. So at the end of April Trump has 994 delegates (51% of those awarded, and 80% needed to clinch the nomination). He has won 29 states and regions. Cruz is at 668 delegates (34%) with 13 states; Rubio has 178 delegates (9%) and 3 states.
In May the Trump train keeps steamrolling along winning now every remaining state, but some delegates get awarded to rivals in some of the states, and that slows Trump's climb to the nomination. At the end of May Trump has secured 1,201 delegates (51%) and is only 35 delegates from clinching the nomination. Cruz is at 766 delegates (33%). Rubio is at 248 delegates (11%).
Then on June 7, the last day of votes, Trump finally clinches while winning every state that day. Trump finishes with 1,320 delegates (53%) and 39 states and regions. Cruz finishes second with 783 delegates (32%) and 13 states and regions. Rubio ends third with 261 delegates and 3 states. Jeb Bush will be counted as fourth with 100 delegates (4%) and 1 region. Technically I have Rand Paul finishing a far distant 5th, with 11 delegates (0%).
Thats how I project this race to go. If the result is that Trump wins the nomination, and takes the majority of delegates, but clinches only on the last day, June 7, I would consider my forecast perfect. Nobody is going to guess the states and the exact delegate count correctly without simply dumb luck. Still, also for the fun of it, here are the states that I award. Cruz wins Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Texas,and Utah. Rubio wins Connecticut, Minnesota and North Dakota. Jeb wins Puerto Rico. All other states and regions go to Trump.
So there you have it. I am now quite confident that Donald Trump will be the nominee for President by the Republican party. I also believe he will win the nomination race by majority, so he will not have to select his Vice Presidential candidate from the rivals he has relentlessly been trashing in the preceeding months. The convention is likely to have a lot of furious conservatives hating their candidate. Regardless, Trump will pick some surprise outsider as his VP choice. And that will make no difference, in the general election in November, Trump will go down in epic loss to Hillary Clinton in a landslide drubbing of more than 10 point margin, which flips the Senate and House to the Democrats, and the only question is, will Hillary get a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Trump's loss will be worse than McCain to Obama (45%) in the class of Mondale to Reagan in 1984 (41%) and can even be as disastrous as Goldwater.to Johnson in 1964 (39%). Now lets see how close or far I end up with my forecast. And I will be honest, I would love to start off by being wrong about tomorrow in Iowa haha, would love to see Trump lose there but as I said, I am predicting Trump wins.
(For those wondering about the Democratic race, there is no race. Hillary cruises to an easy victory, Bernie picks a few states but poses no real threat apart from media-generated bogus hysteria). So what do you think? Lets talk about the Republican race. Trump for President?