Last week I presented a keynote in Skopje Macedonia where I did an update to my projections related to ‘Grand Convergence’. Some of our readers will probably want to see what the latest numbers look like. So this is an update to the ‘biggest race in human history’ or the 7 Trillion dollar collision of 17 separate giant global industries.
17 INDUSTRIES COLLIDE
Grand Convergence is the merger of 17 giant worldwide industries which are all headed to digital. Some were born digital like social media. Some drove the digital revolution like telecoms. Others found digital forced upon themselves like music. And some are still unsure exactly how much digital will end up disrupting their business like banking. But I am convinced these 17 industries will all become totally or at least mostly digital. If so, it also means that the vast majority of their business will become ‘mobile’ as our friend Jonathan ‘JMac’ MacDonald is fond of saying, all digital will become mobile. So what are the 17 merging or indeed colliding industries? They are in alphabetical order:
Broadcast (TV and radio)
Mapping (includes navigation & compass)
Print (everything from books and magazines to newspapers to posters, postcards, billboards)
Those are the 17 industries which are pretty sure to end up mostly or completely digital. That means they are all headed to mobile, at least for the most part. Some know it and some of their leading companies are fully aware of this like Google in Internet or Apple in Computers or EA in Games or Facebook in Social Media, others are pretty much still bewildered or confused. But these 17 are now in an open ‘death match’ where anyone can become their rival and eat their business, not unlike how Nokia, Samsung and Apple wiped out most of the stand-alone camera industry. Or how computer maker Apple took over the music business with iPod and iTunes. Or how now Sweden is now openly talking of becoming the first cashless society.
To illustrate this race, I have been showing my diagram of the race with the oval where mobile is in the middle and those industries are arrayed outside the elliptical line. This is the base diagram:
You’ll note that all arrows are the same length but are of differing thickness. The width of the arrow tells you how big the industry is. Broadcast for example is a 600 Billion dollar global industry but Music is worth only about 25 Billion dollars. This helps illustrate how large any of the major industries is in rough relationship to each other. Then I have shown annually the evolution of this race, how much of the total industry has migrated into the circle like this:
So today we can see that about 1.6 Trillion dollars (1,600 Billion dollars) has already been migrated into the circle. This is out of a total value of 7.0 Trillion dollars so about 23% of the migration has been completed. This is what I’ve been showing in recent conferences and workshops. In Skopje I gave an update to the theory, with a new slide showing a projection into year 2025 or a 10 year forecast. This is the new diagram and early projection of which industries will be fast, or which will have their migration mostly completed, and which will be ‘laggards’ slow to migrate into their future.
You’ll see that the total value I have estimated to have migrated in the next ten years is 4 Trillion dollars. When we remove the 1.6 Trillion dollars so far, it means in the next ten years the migrated value of industried shifting to digital and mobile will be about 2.4 Trillion dollars. The GROWTH in ‘mobile’ in the next ten years will be larger than the established TOTAL VALUE of Mobile today! And mobile has been the fastest-growing global industry in human economic history. As my friend and fellow statistician and forecaster of the mobile industry, Chetan Sharma likes to say, we are only entering the golden age of mobile.
The one other thing I wanted to add is the recently added ‘last slide’ of the theory. The other HUGE industries which will be partially coming to digital and mobile but which probably will not become fully digital in the next few decades. I have not attempted to find every ‘big’ global industry. I have only taken the ‘huge’ ones that are worth 1 Trillion dollars each, or more. They are in alphabetical order:
These eight industries will all see anywhere from 10% to 40% of their total value going digital and mobile. I have not yet been able to give a precise count of the level of that transition for each of these, but want to indicate that these ‘cannibals’ are at the gates, and will also want to take their slice of mobile, both contributing to the industry but also presenting a threat and could radically alter how the mobile/digital industry evolves. So this is what that slide looks like. Note that the 'industries in green' will become fully digital but the industries in orange color will also join partially in the race to digital and mobile and that includes some of the biggest industries on the planet today like retail and farming
We see examples of this interest in all sorts of places for example with how Coca Cola has changed the mobile industry radically by inventing mobile payments (original Coca Cola vending machines were the first instance of where you could pay for something by SMS already 17 years ago). Apple Pay, NTT DoCoMo's Osaifu Keitai and Kenya's M-Pesa all owe a debt of gratitude to that Coca Cola vending machine invention already a decade before the iPhone was launched. If you look at the innovations around the world very often then now are in areas outside of traditional tech and media, such as the London tourism innovation of talking statues (via QR codes and NFC connectivity at statues connecting with mobile phones carried by tourists). As I visited in Finland last week I saw that the same idea has now been adopted for statues in Helsinki too. That kind of stuff. Look at retail and you see massive innovations using mobile. Same in travel, healthcare, education and so forth.
For those who want to see in more detail what the near future looks like, you might enjoy the forecast of mobile by the most accurate forecaster in mobile... my latest forecast is available from here.