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May 25, 2015



Just a funny note, windows phone is about to be renamed back to windows mobile.


os market share q1 does not add up to 100% (75+18+3+2=98%).

John A

Interesting to read. Samsung Galaxy S6 and S6 Edege seems like a big failure in many markets.
(very bad battery life according to many reviews)

I suppose building a iPhone 6 copy was not so good after all.
But their Tizen models sells fine. I wonder if we will see some flagship models with Tizen to?


Please continue to do these. Android won't remain dominant forever. A better mobile OS will emerge eventually.

adi purbakala

If all analyst gone
Where would be tomi got number?

adi purbakala

All chinese + apple market share going down?


Re. Tizen:

Sorry, no, NO!
This is just a dream. Tizen will face the exact same problem as Windows Phone does: It's a fringe platform with weak interest. Trying to sell this as premium in a market where developers are fully committed to Android and iOS will face strong resistance. It'd massively increase the developer workload and ultimately do more harm than good.

And being based on Linux doesn't make this in any way compatible to Android. There's very little Linux exposed through the Android API. Most is Java anyway.

Samsung knows perfectly well why they only sell Tizen in a market segment where apps do not matter.



I think this is Phantom Tomi posting again.




This is rather bizar, posting as the blog owner. It should be easy to put up a filter blocking posts by "Tomi T Ahonen" not authorized by the blog owner, or so I assume?

abdul muis


"There are now stories coming in that the initial glow of the new case materials has not translated into a strong growth and the Galaxy S6 is even underperforming the S5 by some reports. (I told you so, it was a huge mistake to abandon clear competitive advantages such as waterproofing, removable battery and microSD card slot)."

Perhaps the real reason that S6 does not selling well is that
1. the mid-price phone is good enough (now), and some of those premium user think they don't need top-of-the-line anymore.
2. last year & last last year phone still good enough, and people use the phone much longer than before.

"So why is iOS having so much bigger installed base than its recent market share as the market has kept growing? Its because iPhones get the best life, handed down to others or resold and used for much longer.."

I hope I can see the data about this, because AFAIK the iphone 4 is barely usable right now.

"The Apple pattern of a surge for Christmas is now subsiding as expected, and the iPhone market share will fall the next two quarters, and like I've said many times before, the new models this year will determine how Apple does, its possible that we soon see the unit-sales peak of iPhones. It should come in a couple of years."

I agree with the peak iphone, and I also see that apple sales peak has becoming shorter and shorter with each release. From 9 month to 7 month to 6 month, and now only peaking at 3 month after the release before going back to 'normal'. and with each shorter period, the spike goes higher and higher.


Apple's market share will be up this year, the bigger iphones caused a huge upgrade cycle. The currency fluctuations are actually helping them gain share since currency impacts lower priced devices more.
A few other puts and takes will impact total smartphone sales. Xiaomi, ZTE and some others chasing higher margins will harm their sales this year. Noto G second gen is behind the curve, Snapdragon 810 will harm the high end segment sales. TCL, Meizu and Asus are more aggressive but not enough to offset all the other headwinds.
At the same time Apple did 61.6 in Q, in Q2 they'll do 50 or slightly above (they are upping channel inventory so they can easily put 3 mil more inventory in the channel in Q2. In Q3 they got to ship more than in Q2 no matter what so they'll do what is needed (cuts, new iphone, more inventory. And in Q4 even if the new models are minor upgrades and sell poorly, they have to beat Q4 2014 by at least a bit. That's plenty to gain share over last year if the market is 1.5-1.6B units. If they launch the right lower end product (very very unlikely) ,the could ship an extra 30-40 mil units this year.
As for iphone sales peaking ,depends a lot on carrier subs, new screen tech implementations and when they properly address lower price points.
Flexible, foldable, 0 bezels on all 4 sides can help or harm them if they are too slow to adapt. Carrier subs are a huge boost for them ,when regulators or carriers wake up, remains to be seen. Lower price points can be reached easily now even by Apple at their high margins. The CPU perf is getting to the good enough point but Apple would need to use an external SoC or make it's own modem.
Install base is another matter, if the high end goes to 300$ and bellow and Apple stays at more than 2x that with the lesser product, they will need to much better address lower price points. Ofc they need to get rid of Tim Cook first.



"The PC market contracted and the Mac continued to grow because Apple had such a small part of the overall market and they continued to release premium computers as the rest of the market raced to the bottom."

Some issues with this:

I am one of the supposedly few Premium Windows-PC buyers.

The price difference between a Mac and a comparable Windows PC isn't that large. What tends to get overlooked in the statistics that a significant quantity of high-end Windows PCs is not sold by any company to show on sales charts. What about smaller local shops that custom build their hardware? I'm certain that these take most of the premium PC sales but are spread so thin that their individual market share only registers as noise. But add a few 1000 of them and things will look different.

Pre-built PCs from the electronics store? I wouldn't touch them if someone else would pay half of it. Now, with Apple, this can't be done, you have to buy what Apple has on offer.



"Tizen is the best OS available in the market and Samsung board is full of idiots when they don't release more phones running Tizen."

What exactly makes Tizen the best OS available in the market? I'm not sure what makes it superior over anything else.



"....when you get to the point you want to pay the price for a quality, premium computer, you go get a Mac. EVEN THOUGH there have been quality made PC's all along that you just didn't want to pay the money for."

I doubt that.
PCs are not smartphones. Considering that most casual users have migrated away, what's left are people who need their computers to do serious tasks. That often involves being acquainted with certain software. Changing operating systems in such a situation is virtually always a no-go.

So why has Mac marketshare increased in a genrally shrinking market?
Well, the simple answer is, that the segment of the market that is slowly disintegrating is almost exclusively Windows - that's the casual users. Most Macs, on the other hand, are used as work machines, which continue to require replacement at the same rate as before. Plus:

" But I doubt that the iPhone can follow the Mac's ability to grow in an overall declining market for the many years the Mac has."

I don't either. Remember: One of the major growth factors for Macs was iOS development. If you want to make software for iPhones you need a Mac. Obviously many developers who never owned one before were now forced to buy one.



"PC's are similar to Smartphones in that there are basically two markets. A windows user when they go buy a new PC "generally" will only look at the windows PC's. Mac users will go buy their next Mac. There is churn, but it goes into Apple's favor. Once people go with Mac, they have a much higher affinity. Add to the still small overall market share and Macs have continued to outgrow the PC market."

I think you grossly misjudge how the PC market works.
For home users this may be true, but for working and gaming systems it's the required software and toolchains that dictate which OS is needed, not user preference of operating system. And this isn't anything that can make people migrate from one system to the other easily. And nobody would spend money on a Mac just to run Windows software on it.

Those users who can afford to switch are mainly those who will abandon full-fledged PCs first.


Tizen? Not going anywhere. It might make it to the next "round" Samsung Gear, but as a phone OS, why would anyone code for it when Android has the market share it does? Samsung doesn't seem capable of building a viable ecosystem like Apple. What is its niche? Apparently going premium hasn't helped Samsung. But are we seeing high-end sales go to Samsung's rivals, or just going downmarket (i.e. Samsung isn't losing high-end customers to its competitors, it's just that Android is losing high-end sales altogether)?

The Note 5 might well be the "fixed" Galaxy S6 that has all the tick-the-box features that apparently Fandroids crave (whether or not they actually use them). If its sales are stagnant, then we'll know what that means for Android as a whole.


I'm not sure why Tomi thinks the iPhone 6 sales are "subsiding"? Apple's revenue targets for Q3 suggest 45 million iPhones, which is more than a 20% increase from the 37 million sold in the June quarter in 2014. That sounds like a phone that is increasing in sales while Android is at best stagnant, and shrinking at the top.


I recently saw a funny discussion that has poor implications about the near future of Tizen:

Tldr; The discussion was started by a developer at Samsung working on Tizen, and he’s basically blasting the Tizen SDK for being difficult to use (impossible for a large code base, really), poorly documented, and unprofessionally developed. Add a complaint about Samsung’s top-down, racist management. And then the lead developers of Enlightenment chime in and… do not improve the level of discourse. (Enlightenment Foundation Libraries is the UI toolkit for Tizen. It does a lot of the job that Qt does in Jolla, Blackberry 10, and formerly MeeGo/Maemo 5; and GTK did in Maemo 4 and earlier. A complaint about Enlightenment is, thus, a complaint about Tizen.)

Of course, that discussion being hosted on The Daily WTF, we should mention the real WTF: The forum program itself. It’s a relatively new forum system called Discourse, written by Jeff Atwood. It’s very slow and has an obtrusive UI, and its paging system interacts badly with the web browser’s paging. Discourse is the real WTF.


IMO, baron99's trolling is way more bearable than Leebase's pro-Apple tirades.

The Galaxy Note was never a massive sales hit compared to the Galaxy S. Also it is bigger and heavier than most people are willing to carry at this point. (This might change in the future as the original Note had a 5.3" screen, something which is not at all large nowadays)

Android is losing high-end sales, true. But not to Apple - it is losing them to midrange Android phones. Others have already pointed out why this is a bad thing for Apple, too. On the other hand, a decline of Samsung won't matter at all for Android.


Tomi, I have to say I lost a bit of respect for you when you proclaimed that Samsung should go all in with Tizen. How does someone that claims to have so much insight into the cell phone space not realize that this would be suicide for Samsung? People are heavily invested in their ecosystems and to try and force a new OS and ecosystem on someone expecting Android would not only be ridiculous, but also cause one of the biggest market share declines in smartphone sales in history.

Tomi T Ahonen

The Fake Tomi was here again.. I removed that comment which sounded like me but was not me.

Tomi T Ahonen :-)



I read that, too. Very interesting. If that article can be trusted, the Tizen API is close to garbage. Which would be par for course for Samsung. The biggest problem with Bada was also some extremely poor programming interface that made simple tasks excessively complicated and error-prone.

It should also serve as a clear indicator that close relationship of operating system has absolutely NO BEARING WHATSOEVER on development and user friendliness, making Tomi's assumptions about Tizen profiting from MeeGo quite dubious.

My take on the matter is that if Samsung wants to self-destruct their best option would be to release a premium device running on Tizen.


The EFL provide the native Tizen API, however HTML5 is the preferred way to write Tizen apps. So it is not all bad.

It should be noted that besides Bada, Symbian also used poor interfaces (that horrible Symbian C++ dialect, anyone?). For Symbian, the way out was going to be Qt apps written in standard C++.



" HTML5 is the preferred way to write Tizen apps. So it is not all bad."

I'd say it's even worse. Yet another language to develop apps with? Instant fail!
Remember: Tizen is an upstart, and if it makes it needlessly work intensive to port apps, it will end the same as Windows Phone 7, i.e. kill all chances for success before even launching.


Tomi- I have absolutely nothing to do with the industry (other than being a former Nokia phone consumer). But I love this blog and come back to it regularly. You actually make stats interesting, and your translation of what these stats mean is fascinating.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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