(yeah this is another of my hobby topics, nothing to do with mobile or tech - or well, it has a little bit but not really worth reading if you are at this blog for my tech industry numbers and analysis. This blog is massively long detailed 2014 analysis of what the 2016 US Presidential election is all about, and this before the 2014 mid-term election is even done and we don’t know who the Republican candidate will even be.)
NOTE - blog has been ammended after the US Midterm election results to remove one element that I counted as a key to Hillary's win in 2016 (the part about Narwhal, Obama's get-out-the-vote engine). I am keeping the original text as written a week before the election so you can still read it, but striking out the text so it clearly is no longer relevant. Rest of this blog (and my forecast) still stands.
So lets talk 2016. The short version: Republicans will face a total drubbing, Hillary Clinton will walk all over them and win by a modern-era record landslide. Her margin of victory will be bigger than we’ve seen any first election of a President and biggest margin since the Gipper’s re-election over Walter Mondale, yes I mean the total wipeout that Ronald Reagan gave the Democratic challenger in his re-election vote of 1984. And I am totally convinced not only that Hillary will win and win by a landslide. I am even willing to call it, that this election will end with a result of 56 to 44 or better. Hillary’s margin of victory yes, will be at least 12 points in the electorate. And yes, I am fully aware that in his historic ‘landslide’ first election of 2008, Barack Obama only won by 7 points over John McCain (53 to 46 percent of the vote).
As to states won, roughly speaking Hillary win all states Obama carried in 2008 plus win about 6 to 10 more states than Obama’s landslide against McCain (excepting for the home state or states of the rival candidates, whoever those will end up being). I know perfectly well that US Presidential elections tend to be tight and close, Obama beat Romney only by 5 points and that was seen as surprisingly big victory. George W Bush beat John Kerry in 2004 by 3 points and actually lost the popular vote to Al Gore by 1 point in 2000. I know the general elections tend to be close and 2008 was an anomaly and the last time we saw a double digit blow-out was back in 1984 when Reagan was at his pinnacle of support in his re-election.
But I have done very deep analysis and thinking. I am confident in my view and I want to post it now, a week before the 2014 Midterms when several of these things are not yet obvious. I am certain that Hillary Clinton will win in 2016, she cannot be stopped. Some others also feel that way but I have not seen many argue that she’d win by double-digit margin. This blog is based on a lot of sound reasoning but probably many things you might not have thought of (yet) and some things many pundits will not even think of until long into the last weeks of the race two years from now. If you are also a political junkie and have followed US Presidential election, this may be of interest. Its the second longest article I’ve ever published on this blog (after that monster-long article exposing all the different ways in which Nokia was being mismanaged by its previous CEO Stephen Elop). I hope to give you plenty of insights that you can then use to monitor and analyze the election cycle as it starts now in early 2015. I think several of the observations I have here, you will find useful if you ever get into a discussion about US politics, because this upcoming 2016 election will be historic, but how historic, many pundits have not yet weighed in on all these matters. If politics is not for you, feel free to skip this and come back next time and I’ll have the usual techie-mobile topics to cover. (follow me over the fold to the full article)