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August 01, 2014

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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Early view to Q2 smartphone market share numbers as we get data in - CORRECTED: Nokia (Microsoft) falls out of Top 10:

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abdul muis

@Tomi

This is interesting. According to the source on the web, Microsoft only allowed to use Nokia brand until next year, and Nokia already recruiting android expert to build mobile phone.

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Nokia-might-jump-back-in-the-phone-business-with-Android-vengeance-job-postings-suggest_id58863

When Microsoft purchased Nokia, it actually got its Devices&Services division, which hosts the Windows Phone Lumia brand, but also the Asha and other low-cost solutions in Nokia's Mobile Phones section. It also acquired the right to use Nokia's brand, and licensed its mobile-related patents for 10 years, with an option for perpetuity extension, also making itself a preferred licensee of the HERE maps suite for a period of four years.

Nokia, however, retained the right to use its name on future products, the HERE maps suite ownership, and its strong patent portfolio. This seems to be enough for the Finns to try and resurrect their former glory, and, if a smorgasbord of new job postings at LinkedIn is any indication, Nokia intends to do just that. The company is looking to hire engineers, designers and camera specialists with a certain experience, for new devices that are coming down the pipeline.

A few of the listings have already been closed, which might mean that Nokia got their guys, but one in particular piqued our interest - a mobile photography engineer with experience writing camera drivers for Android. Thus, extrapolating from the fact that the hiring spree is done by the same team that issued the Nokia Z launcher in the Play Store, we might very well be looking at an Android-powered future for the Nokia that were. What do you think, do the Finns have a chance to stand on their own in the overcrowded land of the little green robot, considering that Nokia's best mobile technologies, like the PureView camera brand, and the ClearBlack display filter, are now exclusive to Microsoft?

Yuri

Do Nokia's numbers include Nokia X?

abdul muis

Tomi,

IDC put Huawei 2Q2014 @ 20.3 million phone. 4.7 million more phone than your number. How can the different is so massive.
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS25015114

Tomi T Ahonen

abdul and Yuri

abdul first comment - very intereting, thanks! We have to monitor that, but yeah... sounds intriguing. Also squares with some rumors and gossip I've been picking up..

Yuri - we don't have X numbers, Microsoft afraid to give them. I will try to do some estimate when we get all data points in.

abdul second comment - haha, I have no idea what revolutionary mathematics IDC has been using but Huawei said their H1 sales were 34.3M so IDC number is way way off. I have no idea why. Not the first time a major analyst house gets a major public number totally wrong haha...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

HonestAccounting

Motorola shipped 8.6M Q2;
http://motorola-blog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/some-changes-in-our-leadership.html

falito

IN Q1 2014 NOKIA sold 7.1 million with a mix of 79% lumias - 21% nokia x, so the total smartphones for Q2 2014 for NOKIA-MICROSOFT will be 9.75 million. And if you consider this full quarter of Nokia X not partial like Q1, can be bigger. and those 9.75 million smartphones put MICROSOFT in 8th place..

falito

abdul, just to notice your comment, this are the reports from IDC= 20.3 Million. CANALYS=20.4 Million. STRATEGY ANALYTICS= 20.3 Million; the mistake of Q1 by this blog was that Huawei sold 18.2 Million when the 3 sources reported an average of 13.46 million of smartphones in Q1 2014. :(

Paul Ionescu

Samsung slips and Xiaomi takes China's mobe sales crown

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/08/05/screw_you_samsung_xiaomi_steals_superior_sales_crown_in_china/

AndThisWillBeToo

@Tomi
I thought Motorola was supposed to be counted into Lenovo as they bought it from Google?

zlutor

@Tomi: something is not OK:

"
Ninth is Motorola at 8.6 M units and about 3% market share
Tenth is Sony at 8.8M units and 3% market share
"

It should be vice-versa then, shouldn't be?

bubble shooter

thanks a lot for this tipp (y)

juegos de caballos

nbice article , love it, thanks

falito

I´m from méxico and only have 3 comments on this blog, that I really liked; and I really appreciate Mr. Ahonen effort. please don´t take me for ExNokian...eeeeeeeeeeehhhhh puuuutttttooooooo

Stormwatch

>the inventor of smartphones

That would be IBM, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Simon

AndThisWillBeToo

@Tomi
How many of those 7.7 million units shipped by Microsoft are Nokia X? 30%?

symbolset

Where is Lenovo getting their money?

They were breaking even (barely) on PCs, bought IBM's client PC biz and lost money on that. Then they bought Google's Moto and IBMs server biz. Where is the money coming from?

falito

thiswwillbetoo----those are only LUMIA PHONES,.... NOT "NOKIA X"----THIS is what counterpoint estimates: "Microsoft Mobile shipped roughly under 10 million smartphones in Q2 2014 with almost 8 million Lumias and 2 million AOSP based Nokia X smartphones" ..... u can check onit here-- http://www.counterpointresearch.com/marketmonitor2q14

duke

It's fun to annoy the microsoft astroturfers. The numbers say it loudly:

NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE! :-)

Spawn

@symbolset

Lenovo makes profits, good profits and its raising fast.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/05/22/business/smartphone-sales-help-lift-lenovos-annual-profit-almost-30.html?_r=0

John Phamlore

Well that's one way to try and analyze the smartphone market.

Here's another way that I think will lead to more enlightenment: Try viewing the market as more the upcoming struggle between Qualcomm and MediaTek.

Qualcomm has officially won in the United States and will corner that market maybe forever. Broadcom, who actually defeated Qualcomm in patent litigation in 2008, has thrown in the towel on baseband chipsets and is exiting the business:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/02/us-broadcom-divestiture-idUSKBN0ED11720140602

One must congratulate Qualcomm's leadership for successfully using China's desire to have their own version of 4G succeed on China Mobile to broker Qualcomm's full inclusion into the Chinese market. Then again China may be wishing to renegotiate some aspects of their deal:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/24/us-qualcomm-china-idUSKBN0FT0AU20140724

It's MediaTek that is causing future projections of smartphones equivalent to today's that are so cheap they could almost be thrown in as an afterthought for buying other items. Qualcomm probably won't go down that low in price but they are also launching chipsets to enable cheaper smartphones.

The smartphone market is suspiciously starting to resemble the history of the PC market, with differences. Just how many smartphone manufacturers should exist all packaging Qualcomm ARM SoCs, LTE baseband chipsets, and Adreno graphics?

One key difference is Qualcomm's CDMA patent wall that will keep the United States market to itself with guaranteed profits. But don't take my word for it, as Reuters says:

"While most of Qualcomm's revenue comes from selling chips that enable phones to communicate with carrier networks, most of its profit comes from licensing patents for its widespread CDMA cellphone technology."

Paul Ionescu


It looks like Skype for Windows Phone 7 will be killed.
http://www.cnet.com/news/microsoft-to-kill-skype-for-windows-phone-7/

Will Microsoft kill Skype for all mobile phones (i.e. Android, Windows Phone, etc.) just to please the network operators (which hate Skype)?

RottenApple

Microsoft sure knows how to generate satisfied customers...

Of course I can understand why they may stop development - the platform is basically dead - but why they decided to entirely kill it - I don't get. Or is WP7 so grossly insufficient that they need to throw the kill switch because otherwise it'd block development for the other, far more important platforms?

RottenApple

@ExNokian:

It's a proven fact that any crap can find supporters, so it's hardly a surprise that some people actually like WP.
It's also a fact that WP got most of its sales in the low price segment and everybody knows that many customers of this segment look for price first, quality second. There's also very little customer retention here, those people buy whatever they may get cheap next time. They also may use their phones for far longer than those 'magic' 18 months.

The main problem of the platform still stands: It's not commercially viable. As a software developer I got first hand experience of that myself:

- it causes far more work than Android and iOS combined (thanks to not supporting OpenGL and a few other design decisions that make it necessary to use system specific code instead of platform independent code that works fine on both iOS and Android - even when using some middleware!)
- app sales are sub par. My employer sells some casual games based on a popular local gaming brand, which make good business on both Android and iOS, and even on Mac - but all the Windows versions - phones and WinRT - that's the ones most time was invested in, still haven't made back half of their cost after being on the market for 9 months now - the other platforms did so after 2!

So guess what: For our upcoming project, WP has become ultra-low priority - I got precisely one week allocated to port the iOS/Android code to it - and should I find out that it's not possible - scrap it.

So there's some truth behind 'no one wants a Windows Phone!' - of course a better catchphrase would be 'no one NEEDS a Windows Phone' ;)

Spawn

@ExNokian

> 9-12% market share.
> For a year now.

No, its below 3% and falling. Game over.

http://bgr.com/2014/07/01/windows-phone-market-share-3/

> Nielsen

Please give your source. My assumption is you are referring to a years-old report about WP7, correct?

> Windows Phone market share in France actually GREW ... YoY

Yeah, the french guy who bought one device last year bought two this year. Thats YoY GROW by 100%!!!!

p.s. give your source.

> WP apps and their low payoff I have to agree. The advertisement system in WP

Its more that there are to less customers (market share) who buy to less apps (most WP devices sold are low end) what gives to less payoff for investment what results in decreased investment what results in lesser customers what ...

chithanh

Spawn:
It is actually true that in some countries, the Windows Phone marketshare reached double digits and sometimes even outsold the iPhone. You can check the Kantar website for data.

However, the 3% global marketshare means that for every country where WP has 10% share, there must be three more equally sized countries with less than 1% share.

10%+ share for one country is often cited by WP proponents to support their arguments. It is not really relevant outside their small bubble.

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