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July 10, 2014

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Winter

Here is indeed one of the victims that missed the boat of convergence:

'Biggest' jobs cuts since 2009 'imminent' at Microsoft: report
Line up, please, Nokia and marketing types
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/07/15/microsoft_biggest_job_cuts_since_2009/

Timo M.

This was a really interesting read. Much more thorough representation of the subject than I had ever even began to ponder. Also the economic figures to back it all up are astronomic. If 10 % of the scale Tomi is proposing is true it is beyond the mental reach of 95 % of corporate people and politicians. But it could actually be bigger.

Why so few comments? This is the 800 pound (362.9 kg :-) gorilla blog from Tomi. Perhaps he has some 850 pound ones lurking somewhere but I have not seen them yet.

I just have to comment quickly and regrettably on Nokia. That is after all the company I was most familiar with and which was moving like a freight train to new unexpected business areas and thus gives relevance to this blog. For sure I thought that Nokia would be a big player in music and mobile payments -> credit cards -> banking -> finance etc. Wallet cannot play music but mobile can pay your bills and paying for something always gives opportunities to enter new business areas. Nokia was global and they had the possibility to be there for unheard of business opportunities.

Then came the problem of Symbian rapidly becoming obsolete and the board made the hole-headed decision to hire Elop and he made the, what, vacuum for a brain decision to bet all-in to windows phone which had *** NOTHING ***. No apps, no music, no mobile money, no users (WP 7 started from 0), no heritage with Nokia customers, no migration plan, nothing.

After that all that Nokia Devices could show were slabs with glass top and then they were sold to Microsoft. They did not succeed because WP had nothing to offer but an OS and Nokia no longer had anything to offer but HW. I am so happy Nokia made Microsoft buy the HW division. As much as the board were morons they were capable of unimaginable salesmanship. Microsoft paid dearly for Nokia HW.

Baron95

Actually if convergence does happen the "mobile handset" industry necessarily disappears. Ultimately we will have computing and media consumption/creation devices in multiple form factors (pocket, tablet, convertible, laptop, desktop, watch, glasses, car, fridge-front, etc), all IP connected, typically with multiple connection options (WiFi, xLTE, etc).

So you will buy several devices, sign um for a broadband provider, use Internet services and apps. Apple, Google and Amazon, are likely to provide all three with users selecting one or more.

Companies that are threatened are the likes of Vodaphone and DoCoMo (only access) and Samsung (only devices), and even Facebook only services. They'd have to be very, very, very good and very, very, very well priced to compete with an Apple and Google who also offer mobile/broadband access.

Mindy

I can imagine the excitement with which marketers listen to you tell them about the untapped opportunities in mobile marketing. However, I wonder how many people actually would welcome the tapping of those opportunities. I don't mind commercials on TV, I used to love them in the 80's and 90's when they were still more creative, original and had better production values. Nowadays there are only a handful of brands which are capable of standing out and be remembered for their ads. The ads on TV are mostly me-too ads so the consumers can't remember which brand the ad they saw was advertising. I can tolerate advertising on my PC, although I'm not always happy with it. Advertising to my email is annoying and mostly ignored. But personally, what I absolutely hate is ads on my mobile. My mobile is in my pocket all the time so it's within my personal space. Ads on my mobile are therefore invasions of my personal space and privacy. I still value my privacy and I don't like my likes, dislikes and doings to be common knowledge to advertisers. But I wonder whether I'm a dying breed thinking that issues like privacy, freedom of speech and common decency should be highly valued. People seem to be so ready to give them up nowadays, but they'll miss them when they are gone for good.

About watches: being ADHD I have no sense of time. I need external things to tell me how much time has passed as I can't trust my own feeling at all. I frequently think something will only take 5 minutes and then I find out I've been doung it for 20-30 minutes. Or I'm waiting for something and I think I've been waiting for 10 minutes but it's been about 3 minutes. I do use the clock functions on my mobile extensively, but I get really nervous if I don't have my watch on my wrist. I need to see with one quick movement and one glance how late it is. I once tried living without a watch for a week, relying only on my mobile. On day 3 I was already a nervous wreck and started wearing my wristwatch again. Clock in my pocket was too far away to give me the feeling of being able to track the passing of time. I felt as if I was sure to be late for something all the time as I couldn't check my assumptions about time against an external info source as effortlessly as with a wristwatch. So for me at least, mobile will never replace a wristwatch, unless it's wearable on my wrist, small enough and immediately showing me the time at first glance.

TimoT

Tomi is a very optimistic guy but in reality salaries are dropping fast, especially in all kinds of freelancer markets. It is spreading also to software industry. So where the hell the demand will come when the consumers are more and more unemployed?!

We have already a lot of ex-Nokia engineers in Finland in their 30's, 40's and 50's, resumes full of fantastic stuff, but still they cannot find a new job. Hardware side freelancing is pretty much death in Europe. Companies are getting over 1000 applications PER MONTH!

In 2011 every corporate job in USA got 250 applications on average and the situation is not any better today. This convergence is killing 5-10 old jobs while creating only one new and the rest is gone through automation and robotics.

This is creating Elysium style of society where 0.001 percent will get billions, mainly for being very lucky, and the rest of us will slave away until societies start breaking apart. The pitchfork are coming, multibillionaire Nick Hanauer has said recently.

Winter

@TimoT
"Tomi is a very optimistic guy but in reality salaries are dropping fast, especially in all kinds of freelancer markets. "

Supply and Demand. That is how markets work.

TimoT

"Supply and Demand. That is how markets work."

Companies around the globe are all in the process of killing the customer demand by laying off more and more workers.

"The tragedy of the commons is an economics theory by Garrett Hardin, according to which individuals, acting independently and rationally according to each one's self-interest, behave contrary to the whole group's long-term best interests by depleting some common resource."

That common resource is now consumer-worker. They are being "depleted".

Winter

@TimoT
"That common resource is now consumer-worker. They are being "depleted". "

That is why we have societies and nation states: To fight "the tragedy of the commons", "the prisoner's dilemma", and all the other everyone-is-worse-off outcomes game theory predicts.

Ben

Tomi, this is one of the better pieces you've ever written so thank you!

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