We have rare almost-precise smartphone quarterly data from the market leader today.
Samsung just had its investor relations head, Robert Yi give handset numbers for Q2. He said total handset sales were 95 million, and 'smartphone sales were close to 80% of those' as reported by Chron. If we say 'close to' is 78% then Samsung's smartphone sales in Q2 were 74.1 million units. That is down dramatically from Q1 when they sold 89.4 million smartphones. So the decline is 17% in one quarter - a massive fall. Now, yes, iPhone unit sales were down even more than that, down 22% in one quarter but the difference is, that Apple only release new smartphones once per year so they have that 'see-saw' sales pattern. Samsung release new phone models like all other major handset throughout the year, for example the Galaxy K Zoom just came out in Q2, so this fall is more 'relevant' than Apple who has a peculiar annual sales cycle. This is very alarming news from Samsung (obviously also profits down). Samsung's market share is about 24% for Q2 in my preliminary calculation down from 31% in Q1.
Meanwhile the market is increasing. We have already heard from two of the four big analyst houses of handset industry, IDC and Strategy Analytics, who both find growth from their Q1 published numbers - IDC is 5% above and SA is 4% above their numbers they reported 3 months ago. So the market is growing very nicely but Samsung is seeing unit sales falling dangerously fast. Meanwhile there are competitors reporting nice growth such as LG.
This is most definitely time to get very alarmed about Samsung. Lets wait for one more quarter but if you want to panic, you may want to go read this: The Cliff Theory of how handset makers die (they die very suddenly without warning).