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June 04, 2014

Comments

Brian Stephens

As for the state of the mobile market, Stephen Elop was proved right in the end. Android is a gravitational black hole that has smashed all its competitors.

BB7 - still has a toehold in the corporate world and support in some emerging markets. Ancient technology and no future. Will disappear in about a year I reckon.
BB10 - this must be the most disastrous operating system ever released. It's market share is rounded to 0%, it has no support whatsoever and has just about bankrupted Blackberry. They really need to just put a spike through it at this stage.
Windows Phone - they won the battle for third place, but at a terrible cost. While I have seen lots of Lumia 520's (sold at a loss) in the wild, I have never seen a 1520 or a 1020 (devices with the highest profit margin). I think Microsoft are hoping that customers will eventually move from their loss-leading 520's to 1520's or 1020's where a profit can be made. No signs of this happening but Microsoft won't be giving up anytime soon.
Jolla - unlike Microsoft or Blackberry, Jolla have no legacy issues and are running a very lean operation. They also have the benefit of some small fanatical support. I think they can survive as a niche player, but they will never go beyond that.
FirefoxOS - I bought one of the developer devices. I thought it was cheap, nasty and horrible to use. Out of all the mobile OS's, it's the worst one I have used and I don't see how it can catch up with the market. Shame.
Apple - losing market share, but still retains a top position in the premium market segment. Just like with the desktop PC market, I think they will retain a constant 10-15% market share and continue to make good profits.

AndThisWillBeToo

@Brian Stephens
You clearly have not read Tomi's blog. Nokia with Symbian was growing MORE than competition and carriers and smartphone brands were lined up behind MeeGo (including China Mobile that had selected MeeGo as their default smartphone OS and NTT DoCoMo that had just confirmed their long support for Symbian).

Android was not going to smash Nokia, NOKIA WAS WINNING!!!

Ooteb

@AndThisWillBeTo

"carriers and smartphone brands were lined up behind MeeGo"

When did this happen? I don't remember seeing anything indicating that was the case. Do you have any links proving that?

"China Mobile that had selected MeeGo as their default smartphone OS"

This is also something I've never seen happening. Where did you get info like that? Links?

zlutor

@Brian Stephens: He was absolutely not right but rather wrong. See how NOkia X is selling. If Tomi is right with 1,5 mio Nokia X sold - with limited hw! - you can imagine how it would sell if full scale profoli is there supported with Nokia brand and 'biggest ever' marketing campaign spent on Lumias - with moderate effectiveness, at maximum...

Gosh, even low end Lumias have better hw than Nokia X!

@Ooteb: China Mobile selected MeeGo as default smartphone platform (see how N9 was selling there, especially if we see how expensive it was for average people).

But it is old story we cannot change anything. I just would like to see success of Nokia X family - as clear indication how big mistake that guy made. Or how genius he was - it depends... :-)

newbie

Losers:
Apple -2.2%
Nokia -0.4%
Sony -0.3%
LG -0.2%
Blackberry -0.4%

Winners:
Samsung +1.4%
Xiaomi +1.3%
Huawei +0.3%
Lenovo +0.3%
ZTE +0.2%
Coolpad/Yulong +0.2%

AndThisWillBeToo

@Ooteb
Tomi us my source. Here he talks about other manufacturers:
"So what of Nokia's MeeGo project? It was developed with Intel, and MeeGo is actually not dead either. Its quite a good OS even in its early forms, and already powers some netbooks. There are more than a dozen manufacturers committed to MeeGo"
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/03/preview-bloodbath-2-electric-boogaloo-the-smartphone-wars-in-year-2011-will-be-bloodier-still.html

Whereas for carriers we have tons of stuff but I now just take the CMCC:
"MeeGo was pure gold for Nokia - China Mobile, the world's largest mobile operator/carrier had already selected MeeGo as their default smartphone OS"
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2013/06/sherlock-holmes-and-the-hounds-of-the-basket-case-clues-on-the-trail-of-elop-ballmer-and-nokias-boar.html

And as we all know Tomi is good with his facts I believe I don't have to add any other public sources for those.

Ooteb

@AndThisWillBeToo

I didn't see those links proving that "carriers and smartphone brands were lined up behind MeeGo" or that "China Mobile that had selected MeeGo as their default smartphone OS". Far from it. Saying that "There are more than a dozen manufacturers committed to MeeGo" really proves nothing because there can be various levels of commitment and nit knowing how committed they really were makes that kind of statement almost pointless.

"MeeGo was pure gold for Nokia - China Mobile, the world's largest mobile operator/carrier had already selected MeeGo as their default smartphone OS" can also have various meanings. We really don't know what default smartphone OS means. For someone default may mean exclusivity and for someone else it can be one of the default choices the operator offers for the customers. It also doesn't guarantee the sales no matter which one of those two it would be.

Have you anything else or something more concrete about those matters?

Henrik Nergard.

I enjoy to read Tomis blog, very interesting. But is "the smartphone war" realy over?
Apple /iOS (iOS 8) will probably make larger devices in fall.
So maybe 4", 5" and 6" inch iPhones.

So I guess many will buy those, especially now that the 5" inch display is a sort of a standard for most devices.

And for Windows Phone 8.1 I saw a lot of new OEM.s for it in the Computex 2014 event.

I think the total numbers for Windows Phone are now 18 OEM brands.
The Windows platform is now free for all devices under 9" inch now so no more licensing cost to add for manufactors as before.

And those handsets will be out in Q3 or Q4 2014. In that perspective I am not sure if Android will be able to have like 80 % marketshare in Q4 and later in 2015.

Yes Google/Android will be still Nr.1 but I think they have their "peak" now.

John Alatalo

About the Nokia X serie there is a new version on its way now. Nokia X2 with a lot of better specs than Nokia X and Nokia XL:


"Nokia X2 Specifications
•4.3-inch 480×800 touchscreen
•5 MP rear camera
•0.3 MP front camera
•1.2 GHz dual-core Qualcomm Snapdragon 200 processor
•Adreno 305 GPU
•1 GB of RAM
•4 GB of built-in storage
•Android 4.3

Nokia X2 is clearly an upgrade of the Nokia X which had a 4 inch screen, 3MP rear camera, no front camera, 512MB of RAM and was clocked at 1GHz."


And the rumours say at it will be launced in India at end of june. I think in the long run this can be a threat against Google, Google Play and Google services.

Its now seems clear that Microsoft must have been along with this ideá with Nokia from the start.

Abdul Muis

@Henrik Nergard
Quote:
"Apple /iOS (iOS 8) will probably make larger devices in fall.
So maybe 4", 5" and 6" inch iPhones.

So I guess many will buy those, especially now that the 5" inch display is a sort of a standard for most devices."

Americans, British, Australian, Japanese, Canadian will buy it. Other country beside this 5 country doesn't tie up to iOS/apple as this 5 country were. The thing is, some will think that apple ALREADY LOOSING THE WAR by COPYING ANDROID/SAMSUNG, and make apple lose the prestige of being the TECHNOLOGY LEADER.

Quote:
"And for Windows Phone 8.1 I saw a lot of new OEM.s for it in the Computex 2014 event.

I think the total numbers for Windows Phone are now 18 OEM brands.
The Windows platform is now free for all devices under 9" inch now so no more licensing cost to add for manufactors as before."

The real question is WHO WANNA BUY that ugly window phone device? The one who bought nokia lumia is because of NOKIA BRAND.

Quote:
"And those handsets will be out in Q3 or Q4 2014. In that perspective I am not sure if Android will be able to have like 80 % marketshare in Q4 and later in 2015.

Yes Google/Android will be still Nr.1 but I think they have their "peak" now."

I don't think Microsoft can pull some magic easily. If they can, they already have AT LEAST 10% of market share right now

Abdul Muis

@John Alatalo

LOL. The one that buy Nokia X is because they want Nokia, but don't want S40/WP.

The one that want android WON'T BUY THE HALF HEARTED NOKIA X. Nokia X is NOT A GREAT android device compared to other brand android device at the same price level.

Abdul Muis

@ExNokian

Quote:
"As a sidenote, it's interesting to see 4-5 different nicknames use "NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE" over and over again. Especially considering the track to here. Every now and then it has been asked (by me or someone else) that who is it then that buys those literal millions of Windows Phones every quarter if "no one" wants them? And every time the usual suspects here have to take more effort to find explanation for those sales."

I'm NOT saying that no one want WP/lumia at all. Here is a quote of myself from above

"The real question is WHO WANNA BUY that ugly window phone device? The one who bought nokia lumia is because of NOKIA BRAND."

I said that Lumia were sold JUST BECAUSE nokia brand. For a comparison, just see samsung and HTC where there were both android and wp that were equal in quality (NOT half hearted android joke). Samsung sold 88.8 million android & only sold 0.3 million wp. Whereas HTC also sold more android than wp.

Don't forget that there still nokia NON SMARTPHONE user. nokia still sell non-smartphone in truck load till now. This is one of the user that were happy with lumia. because they have no other phone to compare. They knowledge were nokia is THE BEST PHONE (non-smartphone), other brand were crappy. When they want to buy the smartphone, they preference is also nokia, and since they have previous experience is non-smartphone, then wp is the greatest phone they ever use, thus happy.

Henrik Nergard.

@Abdul Muis

Did you even see the new Windows Phone 8.1 devices or just imaging how they look? Many of them looking good:
http://winsupersite.com/windows-phone/previewing-new-windows-phone-81-handsets

So I dont think you can say all are ugly.

And they got around 10 % already in markets like UK, Germany, France, Italy, Poland and some other markets.
Mexico and also places in Asia like Vietnam.
(Kantar Worldpanel statistic)

Yes, it will take long time to grow. But with Windows Phone 8.1 I think Microsoft have much of the stuff in place now. Support for dual SIM, VPN support for companies and a lot of other stuff.

Winter

Those still hoping for a recovery of MS, ie, WP, to world dominance: Remember that 1Q 2014 unit sales are LOWER than 1Q sales of last year.

In a fast growing market MS actually manages to get lower year over year sales.

Abdul Muis

@Henrik

Does it really matter if microsoft have 1000 3RD tier manufacture at their side? Like I said, look at samsung and HTC. Both of them only manage to sell 300,000 WP device, while they sell millions of android device. BOTH HTC and samsung device were considered offering the same wp level with their android counterpart.

The problem is not it were good (or bad), but:
1. If we do the app count/quality. Microsoft still loosing the support of many QUALITY apps developer.
2. If we look at the user interface, while the WP user interface might seems fluid, but it doesn't bring any goodness to it. It is boring and iritating.
3. There were lots of component manufacture that support android because of it's open nature. For example in CPU, WP only support qualcom, but android manufacture buy more qualcom than wp. Thus qualcom support to android is better compared to wp. Not to mention affordable CPU maker such as mediatek, broadcom, etc support android. Thus making android device have more option. This is not something can be turn around over night.
4. It is perceive the general public that wp can't beat the android (competition) for the same amount of $$.

10%. Is the 10% sustainable... that's the real question!!! I bet around 90% of this '10%' bought wp because it has nokia as witnesses that nokia rule 90% of WP market. If that the real reason, does 1000 3rd manufacture on microsoft side really matter?

Somehow I think microsoft will dump WP, and fork android. BUT, tomi doesn't think so.

baron99

Wow! talk about wishful thinking: that WP will amount to anything! We have been hearing this same totally "ridiculous" song and dance for years and years and years and years ...ad nauseum! Don't the astroturfers read what Tomi said: the WP share is "decreasing". It's desperation time for Microsoft and they still have no clue why no one likes windows/microsoft after decades of buggy, virus laden, unimaginative, unintuitive, forced down your throat, overpriced, slow, crappy software. Now go ask the developers what they think about microsoft software, then the operators etc. The microsoft astroturfers are just totally delusional. This is just so so funny to listen to their absurd nonsense over and over and over again, year in and year out. Seriously, why don't you guys get a life? ...you guys are embarrassing yourselves!

Tomi T Ahonen

Some more replies

Wayne - yeah. Imagine if Nokia had just done the sensible thing - introducing Windows Phone alongside the current platform (Symbian) and letting both live side-by-side until Windows Phone (potentially) proved itself. Without the Burning Platforms memo etc. The way EVERY other handset maker EVER has done when introducing a new rival platform (they don't kill the current one). Nokia customers would have been presented a fair set of options on Symbian and Windows Phone. The Lumia sales would have been roughly what they are (actually a bit less as some who were 'forced' to buy Lumia would have taken Symbian) but as Symbian Ovi had the worlds' second biggest app store when Burning Platforms Memo came out - and was closing the gap to Apple - Symbian would have had a big market opportunity for much of this decade - as the lower end platorm of simple low-cost devices - plus the occasional superphone - like the 808 Pureview that Windows Phone 7.x could not support at the time. Symbian would be safely the second biggest ecosystem - as it had nearly a dozen manufacturers still supporting it in the start of 2011 including most big Japanese smartphone makers except Sony.

And - yeah. Blackberry has been destroyed by its management. I cannot possibly forecast that a management starts behaving destructively. You And, cannot also 'accuse' me of being a 'bad forecaster' if I am unable to see an individual player suddenly commit suicide as Nokia did or as Blackberry did. If RIM/Blackberry had behaved sensibly, they'd be far bigger than Windows Phone now. Do you really want to argue that Blackberry put up a fair fight to Windows Phone or did WP inherit third ranking because Blackberry tanked? Please be reasonable And. Most of my readers are adults and behave like adults. I would hope you could grow up too and see that I do my best here...

asdfsd - thanks, yeah. I have the IDC numbers and as always the primary input is to the total market size

baron99 - haha, yeah.. And sadly, the industry could use a strong player to challenge Apple and Google for the OS wars but Windows was never destined to be it. And now the way Samsung is rolling out Tizen, that doesn't look in any way promising either.

Rotten - haha, yeah. There was just today a news story of literally 'a slew' of new smartphones on Windows Phone. They listed three brands that nobody has ever heard of. This while a quarter of Nokia smartphones are already on Android and Samsung's Windows Phone proportion is at under 1% haha... A slew indeed.

Lodbrok - was typo in early edition. Has been corrected. But thanks for input!

keep the discussion going...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

WonTheLottery

@ExNokian
I don't know about the French market but I can give you some insight into the UK:

The 520 was recently being knocked out at £35 from carphonewharehouse.

Going back to when the x20 Lumias were first being released the Lumia 800 was being punted out in the bargain bins in supermarkets. Presumably the disposal of redundant stock.

The 520 and 800 are the only Windows Phones I've ever seen in the wild.

You might be impressed by Nokia's UK market share but I'd be surprised if they've made a dollar of profit in the UK since Elop pulled the plug on Symbian.

For argument's sake let's say Tomi's been completely wrong in every forecast he's ever made, that doesn't change the fact Nokia absolutely tanked under Elop's 'leadership', does it?

It doesn't change the fact that the sales of a Samsung device running Windows Phone are pitiful compared to the sales of a similar Samsung device running Android, does it?

Exclusively adopting Windows Phone was catastrophic for Nokia irrespective of anything Tomi's ever said or done in his entire life.

baron99

@WonThwLottery ...you need to spell it out for the astroturfers in a way they will understand.

All the data says: NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE!

LoL!!

baron99

After tiresome YEARS of saying it will get better for microsoft (wait for this version, that release, this phone, that feature etc and now we are to believe "minimal" progress) they still don't have a clue. I guess hope springs eternal for the whiny microsoft astroturfers ....for everyone else please see my two previous posts.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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