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June 04, 2014

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Abdul Muis

Thanks for the data Tomi. I hope you don't wait Gartner until September for the Q2 2014 data.

My question to you:
1. Apple, Foxcon say that Apple will have 4.7" & 5.5" device, do you think Q3 2014 will help apple/iOS, is baron right?
2. HTC. Why?? Why?? I want to know your opinion on HTC. HTC was regarded as rising brand, then suddenly down. Why?
3. You said in the past that BB will survive, do you still think the same? How small they might be. 0.5% market share?
4. What is Motorola number? and it's rank.

Thank you for the data.

AndThisWillBeToo

I'm more interested to hear Tomi's view on first Tizen phone announced two days ago.

Stormwatch

Seriously, Tomi: by "installed base", do you mean "phones that are actually *still* in use"? Is there a way to check that?

Abdul Muis

@Stormwatch

Just like the number of human on this planet and everything else. We don't really know how to calculate the real 100% number. It just an estimation that were based on how long a device will be be used, how many percentage it broke/lost/stolen on each month, etc.

virgil

Well, Tomi, maybe it's like in that indian joke (*) - Gartner is waiting for you to release you numbers, before they publish theirs :P

(*) in case you don't know it:
It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation asked their
new Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild.

Since he was an Indian Chief in a modern society, he had never been
taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell
what the weather was going to be.

Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared. But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, "Is the coming winter going to be cold?"

"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed," the Meteorologist at the weather service responded.

So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood in order to be prepared.

One week later he called the National Weather Service again. "Is it going to be to be a very cold winter."

The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find.

Two weeks later he called the National Weather Service again. "Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?"

"Absolutely," the man replied. "It looks like it's going to be one of the coldest winters ever."

"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked.

The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy."

E.Casais

@Tomi

A small methodological question: are you using the average, or the median of the published statistics to determine your figures?

Overall, the picture is impressive: mobile phones have joined every other consumer electronics segment with far eastern firms utterly dominating the market -- 1 Japanese, 2 Korean and 5 Chinese.

zlutor

@Tomi: any info on Nokia XL unit numbers?

Wayne Borean


The Symbian numbers are fascinating. It may only be a year since the last Symbian phone was sold, but even before that Nokia was spending most of their advertising budget on Windows Phone. That Symbian is still above Windows Phone for installed base, is a really bad indicator for Microsoft.

Then of course there's Surface Pro 3, a device with no discernible market.

Wayne

AndThisWillBeToo

So... Firefox, Sailfish, Ubuntu and all others that Tomi said still can be a major player in smartphones (Jan 2013) ALL TOGETHER account for 0.1% of sales - literally within rounding error.

How many trends never came to be? HTML5 based phones? Third ecosystem? (WP is not one either) Linux-based OS, true multitasking and carrier customization as major advantage? App stores being a no-story?

Windows Phone (a failure) was never supposed to bypass BB market share. And now BB is at half the market share of WP. Who could have thought that the market saturates to such a state?

zlutor

ehhr, I meant Nokia X family numbers, of course...

tontridge

include stdio.h

int main()
{
int number;
printf("\Enter your stats for phones mother: ");
scanf("%d",&number);
number = (number * 0.456 * 8 / 7)* android * windows_phones / idiots;
printf(:\nYour answer is nothing but trash mother!! %d\n",number);
return 0;
}

asdfds

IDC released market share stats for Q1 2014:
http://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-os-market-share.jsp
Windows Phone slowly disappears. :)

baron99

So it looks like Microsoft peaked around 3% ...and now heading back down. It's the same old story NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE! ...and NO ONE EVER DID WANT A WINDOWS PHONE! ...and NO EVER WILL WANT A WINDOWS PHONE! ....I just have to laugh at the astroturfers bragging about their 3rd ecosystem nonsense for "YEARS". Just too too funny!

RottenApple

@baron99:

And they still have hopes, now that the licensing fees have been dropped. As if that was the problem the system has...

baron99

@ RottenApple ...yes Microsoft still believes they are relevant even with no licensing fees. But after decades of crappy virus laden products people have learned to avoid anything Microsoft. Their reputation is the problem! When there is a choice no one picks Microsoft (but their legions of astroturfers would like you to believe otherwise - It is fun to laugh at them. Hey astroturfers ...NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE! LOL...)

Lodbrok

First two tables are compared to Q3 2013. Really? Why?
Last table is compared to Q4 2014? Huh? More interesting to compare with Q1 2013 and perhaps in second hand the previous quarter.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi all..

thanks for the comment. Please note that I added some detail to the numbers (answering some of your questions too) like the Nokia X vs Lumia sales Android vs Windows Phone. I'll do some replies now to the comments.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Abdul - lots of questions, several would need long answers... Apple? Who knows what they will do, but they definitely need a larger-screen iPhone. HTC? I'm as baffled as you. BB yeah, they are now a totally niche player but as niche they should be able to return to profits (no sign of that from Waterloo yet). Motorola bubbles close to Top 10. They announced their number as 6.5M for Q1 which would put them at rank 12 just behind HTC. The combined Motorola and Lenovo sales would be 20.7M and third ranking at 7% market share.

AndThis - I am very disappointed with the first Tizen smartphone. It seems to be repeating the Nokia Lumia original launch mistake of offering a supposed 'flagship' that doesn't even match the specs of their own flagship on the other platform ie Android and Galaxy (much how Lumia 800 was not even matching Symbian and MeeGo flagship devices of the time)

Stormwatch - yes. Phones in use. Yes there is a way to check it, means doing massive global surveys of actual smartphones in use. ComScore is currently doing the largest international survey of phone brands in use, but several national surveys come out from time to time. I was the first analyst to offer an installed base global number and have been refining my model as the national data has come in, and I am confident it is very close to the mark by now. If you find any other source of a global installed base of smartphones in use, that is in the public domain, please share with us. Note that such measures as browswer usage, is already severely misleading as it for example will overcount Apple share (as iPads and iPod Touch devices cannot be separated from iPhones and Blackberry's own data transfer systems mean that Blacberry is undercounted etc). I mean surveys of actual handsets in use, not usage of their browsers or ad page views.

Abdul yes but we can get very close to accurate by models that adjust the new-purchased phones (which we know rather well) and the total phones in use (which we can get rather well from survey data). The issue that muddles the numbers up, is that some phones tend to have very long afterlives, ie sold in the second hand market (like Nokia Symbian) or handed down to family members (old iPhones). But once that is known (or reasonably estimated) we can get quite accurate numbers that also keep reporting a realistic number as various market shares of the players change (like Nokia's and Blackberry's collapses). I know that many big analyst houses have their algorithms to calculate this data too, I believe mine is currently the most accurate.

virgil - haha fab joke! And I'd love it if the Gartner people thought that highly of this silly blog but no, they just (like all analyst houses) want to boost their report sales so they don't give out all the same data every single period.. Its their way of operating. I keep giving out as much as I possibly can, for free, always. I get my business from clients who trust me. Its my way of operating.

E. - using average ie 'mean' of the total market size (as always). It won't always agree with my gut-feeling number - and will from time to time be revised by some of those analysts (without warning us or explaining why) and that usually is in the direction I mentioned on my blog haha.. But yeah. I go by their 'verdict' such as now in Q1, I did think that China sales was so strong, the total market grew from Q4 but the average of these 3 analyst houses did bring the total sales down by 2% from Q4. I have to go by something haha even if I feel that doesn't smell quite right...

zlutor - its now in the blog! 1.5M is very close to the truth on Nokia X, as the Windows Phone number is constrained by the other data and can't really be bigger than what I have as 6.2M (and that includes Sammy and HTC)

Thanks folks, I'll try to come back for more comments.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Brian Stephens

There's a very good joke doing the rounds on Twitter with regard to Tizen.

"Tizen. For those who bought Samsung Galaxy just for TouchWiz."

I don't see how Samsung can possibly win with this. There'll be no apps for it, the specs of the device are rubbish, the UI is ugly and the OS is probably 3-4 years behind Kitkat in terms of features/functionality, no other players in the industry are getting behind it, it doesn't do anything new or disruptive.

zlutor

@Tomi: 1.5 mio Nokia X phone - well, not so bad, is it?

Here it comes a bette rvariant: Nokia X2 (http://www.bgr.in/manufacturers/nokia/exclusive-nokia-x2-android-smartphone-to-be-launched-later-this-month/)

Slightly better CPU/GPU and the well awaited 1GB RAM. If price tag is competitive it could result in fancy numbers - especially compared with Lumia sales...

Brian Stephens

As for the state of the mobile market, Stephen Elop was proved right in the end. Android is a gravitational black hole that has smashed all its competitors.

BB7 - still has a toehold in the corporate world and support in some emerging markets. Ancient technology and no future. Will disappear in about a year I reckon.
BB10 - this must be the most disastrous operating system ever released. It's market share is rounded to 0%, it has no support whatsoever and has just about bankrupted Blackberry. They really need to just put a spike through it at this stage.
Windows Phone - they won the battle for third place, but at a terrible cost. While I have seen lots of Lumia 520's (sold at a loss) in the wild, I have never seen a 1520 or a 1020 (devices with the highest profit margin). I think Microsoft are hoping that customers will eventually move from their loss-leading 520's to 1520's or 1020's where a profit can be made. No signs of this happening but Microsoft won't be giving up anytime soon.
Jolla - unlike Microsoft or Blackberry, Jolla have no legacy issues and are running a very lean operation. They also have the benefit of some small fanatical support. I think they can survive as a niche player, but they will never go beyond that.
FirefoxOS - I bought one of the developer devices. I thought it was cheap, nasty and horrible to use. Out of all the mobile OS's, it's the worst one I have used and I don't see how it can catch up with the market. Shame.
Apple - losing market share, but still retains a top position in the premium market segment. Just like with the desktop PC market, I think they will retain a constant 10-15% market share and continue to make good profits.

AndThisWillBeToo

@Brian Stephens
You clearly have not read Tomi's blog. Nokia with Symbian was growing MORE than competition and carriers and smartphone brands were lined up behind MeeGo (including China Mobile that had selected MeeGo as their default smartphone OS and NTT DoCoMo that had just confirmed their long support for Symbian).

Android was not going to smash Nokia, NOKIA WAS WINNING!!!

Ooteb

@AndThisWillBeTo

"carriers and smartphone brands were lined up behind MeeGo"

When did this happen? I don't remember seeing anything indicating that was the case. Do you have any links proving that?

"China Mobile that had selected MeeGo as their default smartphone OS"

This is also something I've never seen happening. Where did you get info like that? Links?

zlutor

@Brian Stephens: He was absolutely not right but rather wrong. See how NOkia X is selling. If Tomi is right with 1,5 mio Nokia X sold - with limited hw! - you can imagine how it would sell if full scale profoli is there supported with Nokia brand and 'biggest ever' marketing campaign spent on Lumias - with moderate effectiveness, at maximum...

Gosh, even low end Lumias have better hw than Nokia X!

@Ooteb: China Mobile selected MeeGo as default smartphone platform (see how N9 was selling there, especially if we see how expensive it was for average people).

But it is old story we cannot change anything. I just would like to see success of Nokia X family - as clear indication how big mistake that guy made. Or how genius he was - it depends... :-)

newbie

Losers:
Apple -2.2%
Nokia -0.4%
Sony -0.3%
LG -0.2%
Blackberry -0.4%

Winners:
Samsung +1.4%
Xiaomi +1.3%
Huawei +0.3%
Lenovo +0.3%
ZTE +0.2%
Coolpad/Yulong +0.2%

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Available for Consulting and Speakerships

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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