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May 29, 2014

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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference China Economy Passes USA in Size This Year says The Economist - What would Kondratieff think of this within the natural succession pattern of global hegemony ie Long Wave Cycle:

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tontridge

#include
#include

typedef struct
{
int linecount;
char line[80];
}page;

void get(page *paper);

main()
{
page *paper;
paper = malloc(sizeof(page));
get(paper);
printf("\n%s\n",paper->line);
free(paper);
}


void get(page *paper)
{

char ch= ' ';
paper->linecount = 0;
printf("\nEnter the thing buddy: ");
while (ch != '\n' && paper->linecount line[paper->linecount++] = ch;
}
paper->line[paper->linecount] = '\0';
}

Winter

@E.Casis
"The fact that violations of IPR are widespread in China just mirrors what took place in the USA and Europe in the 19th century at the height of the first industrial revolution."

Indeed. The Dutch example was especially clear. But even today it is obvious.

Every US politician or civil servant will stress at every opportunity tha patents exist to "Protect AMERICAN innovation".

Patents most definitely do NOT exist to protect non-American (i.e. non-USA) innovation. The same holds more or less in the EU.

zlutor

China always - except last two centuries - dominated "all its known world" - but via commence not military power.
Of course they used military power but for keeping trading ways open...

Their society is not individual, goals are set by the leaders and passing decades does not really count. See 'rare-earth metals' storiy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earth_element


So, things are just going back to 'normal' from their point of view... :-)

zlutor

@Tomi: any comment on this: http://www.4-traders.com/SAMSUNG-ELECTRONICS-CO-6494906/news/Samsung-to-Launch-Tizen-Smartphone-Soon-Update-18529378/

Let's see how it goes...

It either proves B95 - there is no (sw development) life outside of SV :-) - or give us some hope he is wrong on it... :-)

Kirsi Kommonen

Thank you, Tomi, for the big awakening... haha.

As long as the actual message in Tomi's post is not heard because people are too busy trying to come up with excuses and explanations for why this development should not be true, we are wasting time...

Believe it or not, the Chinese will buy and copy all knowledge they have not already got, branding expertise included. If Western brands and businesses are not willing to get away from their comfort zone and learn the ropes on the Chinese market, tough luck. Then they will either fight the same fight on their home soil and loose (even more embarrassing) or end up being bought up by Chinese capital. The only way to continue to be competitive in the long run is to be competitive against the Chinese.

On top of our children learning Chinese at school, they will learn the Chinese management and competitive strategies such as the Art of War at business school. And what do you know, the Chinese have believed that there is a 60 year cycle with everything in the world... or maybe 55, haha.

Baron95

Hey - interesting discussion - too bad I'm so busy with work to fully engage.

But I'd make just one quick comment. I don't think that economically the world will be unipolar or even bipolar. I think going forward, there will be 3 massive economies, 3 massive markets, all at about the same size.

The US, the EU, China. Global players be it Apple or VW Auto Group will have to play in all three.

Having said that, just like the EU is a larger economy than the US, it punches way below their weight in culture (US movies and music are by far more popular in Europe than any local movies and most songs), defense (particularly in force projection, only the US can do it), finance (although London punches way above its weight), and a few others.

China, will be even further condemned to punch way below its weight internationally. There is no global rush to watch Chinese programs around the world, no lines forming for the introduction of Chinese products (a la iPhone), China has no force projection capability whatsoever, and the capital and other controls pretty much insure that it will never be a money center or settlements currency.

This is not to downplay what China has accomplished at all - we should all be in awe of how the Chinese have moved 400,000,000 people (the population of Europe) from abject poverty into the middle classes in just 20 years.

But China, most likely will never project the culture and power the way Rome, Britain and the US did (and still does in the case of the US). But they will certainly flex their economic muscle and regional power muscle a lot more.

The big loser in all this, is not the US. It is in fact Japan, which, if you remember correctly, in the late 80s there were all these projections on how the Japanese economy would be bigger than America's around 2000-2005 or so. Japan will decline further and faster in importance, the more China grows.

Good topic.

Baron95

And the other thing that Tomi forgot to mention is that circa 1820, China's GDP was about 10 times LARGER than US GDP.

The US overtook China in GDP, then China started copying the US and will likely soon retake the lead.

GDP is a very different measure than global leadership, but China's GDP being largest than America's was true for most of the 19th century.

Siasa

@KK

You are simply just missing the point. While China is succeeding now, they simply can't continue dominating in the future because there are even more powerful countries. Countries like India. While China is actually destroying the future of the nation with the one child policy, India is not doing such thing.

It's inevitable that counties like India will dominate in the future. India has no aging industrial infrastructure they need to maintain. India can simply build a new modern one with a fraction of the cost China needs for maintaining the current aging industrial infrastructure.

E.Casais

@Baron95

"circa 1820, China's GDP was about 10 times LARGER than US GDP."

Perhaps true, but not terribly relevant. The USA was a country in the making, not very populated (actually, in the process of replacing the native population by an immigrant one), nor as intensely industrialized as the UK, for instance.

The real comparison is with Europe. I never saw complete figures for 1820, but during the whole 18th century, the two worldwide largest (by far) economies were China and India, with neighboring regions (like Siam or Ceylon) more prosperous and economically active (as measured by international trade, for instance) than many comparable European countries.

Current trends are indeed a return to the normal.

"just like the EU is a larger economy than the US, it punches way below their weight [...]"

And it will continue to do so, since the EU, despite the unified market and many common regulations, has neither a unified economy, nor a single culture, nor a common finance system, nor an integrated military.

"China, will be even further condemned to punch way below its weight internationally.*

And 50 years ago, it was "condemned" to remain a closed, overpopulated country mired in privations and underdevelopment. Chinese are actors of history, not subjects "condemned" to socio-economic iron laws promulgated by Western pundits.

"There is no global rush to watch Chinese programs around the world, no lines forming for the introduction of Chinese products"

As Tomi pointed out, historically one is generally beholden to the previously dominant originator of cultural production, which continues to enjoy its reputation, while the new entrant takes over and is being often initially considered as inferior.

There might not be line of fans to buy Xiaomi phones in the West, but it will not last long till the vast majority of mobile phones are designed and manufactured in China. It is already the case with PC, for instance. And again: in Western countries we are naturally oblivious to economic and cultural trends taking place in regions and amongst populations in which we are not interested (e.g. central or southeastern Asia, Africa, or Latin America). You will find plenty of Chinese cars in those regions, for instance. Chinese martial arts movies and Chinese eateries are popular all over the world as well.

I suspect many surprises are in store. I also agree with multipolarity and continued Japanese decline.

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