My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media


Blog powered by Typepad

« One More Time - Lets do Nokia Q1 Smartphone Results, what can we estimate of the actual numbers from the deliberate fuzzy math | Main | Lets Do 2014 Numbers for the Mobile Industry: Now we are at 100% Mobile Subscription Penetration Rate Per Capita Globally »

April 30, 2014


TrackBack URL for this entry:

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference The Microsoft Handset Opportunity with Nokia - the Full Analysis of Potential (its not looking good):



@Tomi Lover:

" If you have not met one who likes Windows 8 is the time to look around in the world. "

Sorry, no success so far, I'm sure there are a few who may actually like it but these are clearly not the people Microsoft is after, i.e. the ones who may heavily invest in the ecosystem.

The people I know tend to be knowledgeable computer users and this group pretty much has made up their mind about Metro, i.e. they strongly dislike it because it disrupts their workflow.
These same people also tend to use mostly Android phones and to a smaller degree iPhones - but finding a WP user among them is nearly impossible. And the reason? They all got burned by Metro on Windows 8 or are scared of being forced to 'upgrade' their workplace and sure won't bother with the same UI on their phone.

I have a Nokia 620 for work and yes, the common reaction I get when showing it to people is some astonishment that they dare selling that stuff with such a primitive and oversimplified interface that on top of it is butt-ugly.

I think there's a lot more behind the fact that Nokia only managed to move some volume in the lowest end bargain bin segment, i.e. the least discriminating of all existing users. People who actually are willing to pay a bit more choose something different.

Let's be clear about one thing. Metro has been a complete and utter disaster for Microsoft since its inception. And no polishing is going to change that, they need a complete overhaul. I don't get it. They got the numbers from 3.5 years of failure now and they still won't change. Any sane company would have used that time to remove the irritation from the UI and make it a more plesasnt experience but Metro still looks and feels as annoying as on the first day.

Earendlil Star

*** on WP market share

According to latest Kantar data: "Across Europe, Android remains the top OS with 70.7% share, while Apple holds second position at 19.2%. Windows, at third, accounts for 8.1% of smartphone sales."

Astros, hallo??? Easy to cherry pick and try to hide reality... reality BITES! And WP market share is in decline again, also in Italy (not YOY, but over previous quarters). By the way, Android grew 820 bps in Italy, vs 300 bps for WP yoy... LOL, especially if you consider their relative size!!

But the WP propaganda machine is in full swing. Well, how could it be otherwise? MS continues to be totally committed on this POS.

*** on Nokia X

On the Nokia X, I disagree with you, Tomi. Nothing, I repeat, NOTHING moves at Nokia that MS does not want. Elop the Trojan was totally behind this endeavour, which by the way explains the shutting off of the Meltemi project. This is why.

Guys at MS are bad at mobile, but they are not stupid. They saw that WP was going nowhere, despite the Nokia push. Going Meltemi would have meant trying to create an app base from scratch. What could be done? Bing(o)! Let's take AOSP, which is already there and we don't have to work too much on it, and has the advantage of carrying (at least with minor tweaks) the whole Android app ecosystem. We skin it like a WP (more or less) and load it with a bunch of useless MS services. Buyers will be tricked into believing it's a real Android phone and will buy it! Bing(o)! Why try and create a solid mobile product (which MS failed to do for 20 years) when it's possible to steal Google technology with almost no effort?

One question however remains: why not pushing the Lumias 520s and 620s, which are low end dumbphones anyway? At just slightly higher price tags than Nokia Xs? My take is that Nokia Xs, which are even lower specd than the 520s, and much cheaper to produce, possibly at breakeven or a slight gain, vs Lumias that need to be heavily subsidized to be sold at the prices they are sold at.

So, no: as it was just confirmed by Elop, Nokia X was no mistake and was a clear MS decision and tactic to go for it. To try and salvage its presence in developing markets and attempt to disrupt the Android ecosystem from the inside, with a look-alike.

On this front however, I expect this move by Google: an offering for sideloading Google's apps on Nokia Xs to replace MS... that would really be fun...!
But you may ask: why should Google bother, when there are so many other cheap droids on the market? It's because of the Nokia brand.
Yes, as I said in the past and Tomi confirmed in this post, the Nokia brand is what is keeping up Lumia's sales. Despite MS and WP.
And having Nokia branded phones with real Android (including Google apps on it) would be the ultimate humiliation for MS!


Elop's bonus has reportedly gone up to $33 million because of increases in Nokia's share price. Nokia tries to pacify its shareholders by pointing out that 70% of this is paid by Microsoft. But that only tells you who Elop was really working for while CEO of Nokia.

red honey

WP propaganda machine is in full swing

yeşil kahve

lool Android grew 820 bps in Italy, vs 300 bps for WP especially if you consider their relative size!!


@Earendil Star:

"But you may ask: why should Google bother, when there are so many other cheap droids on the market? It's because of the Nokia brand."

Why even bother? Nokia X is only sold in 'selected' markets, and the Nokia brand will be gone by the time this may ever find wider distribution. And who would buy 'Microsoft X'? Right: nobody. Those who would buy a Microsoft branded phone are those few who actually LIKE Microsoft - and those would buy a Lumia to 'support' Windows.
Google only needs to wait and sit it out until Microsoft's mobile unit implodes. And the numbers from the last two quarters are BAD!

sarımsak çayı

seriously good point here Android grew 820 bps in Italy, vs 300 bps for WP ..


Remember "NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE" ...well ..It is STILL TRUE!!!! :-)

Peter Sverige

Elop should be jailed for destroying finnish jobs and all the economical damage he intentionally caused. That's all I think of that crook.
Disaster of epic proportions.
Here's a small iOs game called Flappy FLop - the burning platform:


@Peter Sverige
iOS game - how fitting.


I see that all the little children, who had such high hopes for the Linux dominance of the desktop and mobile phone, are out in force, in their denial. Unbutu is dead for mobile. They posted the death accidentally in a bug report, then tried to hide it.

"First commercial Tizen phone release imminent." These same headlines were printed in 2012, several times in 2013.

And if you are going to quote me, quote me correctly. [So it follows Bada, Tizen, Maemo, Meego, Moblin, Sailfish, into the dead, stillborn (sp), dying heap of failure that is open source Linux based OSes.]

No tizen is not dead. It is stillborn into irrelevancy. It is exactly the same science experiment (for Samsung to learn) that N9/Meego was.

It will not solve Samsung's big problems:

1 - While Apple is already getting $5B/quarter in iTunes/AppStore net revenues, Samsung gets zero.
2 - How to differentiate from the barrage of white-label lower cost Asian Android phones.

Samsung is boxed at the low end, and will be boxed at the high end once Apple launches their large screen phones in the fall.


Tomi, the QWERTY Other Halfs for Jolla are already for sale. There's a Dutch guy who's 3D printing them. Only he's doing small batches and they cost 100 EUR a piece. I think they were demoed by Jolla recently at that big mobile fair. I'm waiting for the QWERTY to go a bit lower in price and then I'll get one too.

Minna on nimeni, joo, vaikka netissä käytänkin yleensä nickinä Mindya.


"I see that all the little children, who had such high hopes for the Linux dominance of the desktop and mobile phone, are out in force, in their denial."

Erm... Android is Linux on mobile. I think we could safely call 80% market share dominant.

Who gives a stuff about Android's comprehensive spanking of iOS anyhow? The browser is the platform of the future, that's why Samsung are working on Tizen, Mozilla on Firefox OS, Google on Chrome, LG on WebOS, etc... We're not just talking about smartphones either - IP phones, smart TVs, media players, watches, fitness equipment, central heating, air conditioning, microwaves, white goods, cars,... all running web servers that can send and receive requests using JSON.

You can keep your silly little 'ecosystem'. Any service on any relevant device, any device having the capability of communicating with any other device, that's the future and Samsung's breadth of products puts them (and hence Tizen) in a strong position to deliver.

"Unbutu is dead for mobile. They posted the death accidentally in a bug report, then tried to hide it."


Paul Ionescu

One does not have to be a genius to see that Elop has damaged Nokia and his actions shows basically "ill intent" for Nokia. His main goal was the good of Windows and Microsoft and not the good of Nokia.

What I am amazed though is that Nokia as a company didn't have and it didn't show any kind of "antibodies" or "immune system" against this kind of situation/behaviour when the CEO shows "ill intent" while damaging the company. Nokia didn't even try to find "creative" ways of getting rid of Elop as soon as it was clear that Elop was not doing any good to Nokia. Jorma Ollila reprimanded Elop for the famous memo. Reprimanded only? Seriously?

I think that also Nokia has a big fault in this because obviously Nokia didn't have any "immune system" and also obviously Microsoft and Elop's lawyers were better than Nokia's ones. Anyway, this is a good lesson for the new Nokia (that is Nokia Networks).


"Unbutu is dead for mobile. They posted the death accidentally in a bug report, then tried to hide it."

Still no citation? Let me help you out, I think this is the story that's got you so hopelessly confused:

Just to clarify, Ubuntu for Android is NOT Ubuntu Mobile.

Sander van der Wal

@Paul Ionescu

The obvious reason is that Nokia management broadly agreed with Elop. They might differ slightly on certain points of execution, but they were aligned on strategy.

The people that would be the natural opposition, the Symbian and MeeGo camps, had already lost all credibility. They were the ones that had managed to get Nokia in that bad spot. The MeeGo team by not delivering for three years, rebuilding the system trice. And Symbian was already declared dead. Remember Qt going to replace the S60 and Symbian API's? That was the time they lost most of their influence.


@Sander van der Wal

And Windows Mobile/Phone was taking the world by storm? Kicking butt and taking names?

When the Nokia user base was migrating to Android and not Windows Phone quarter after quarter, and losses were posted quarter in, quarter out, somehow the WP camp was swimming in credibility? Please.


@Abdul - Oh, boy. You need to understand the death stages of Linux Open source projects. Ubuntu One is dead, U4A is dead, and Ubuntu Phone will die. True, in open source Linux, they are all zombies, they walk around, they are declared "complete, ready".

But there is no launch partner - no interest from OEMs, Operators in any of this crap. That is why it is dead. It is a science project that will amount to nothing.

Just like Maemo. Just like Moblin. Just like Meego. Just like Bada, Just like Tizen. Go read Tomi's post from the past, where he and all the ball lickers here claimed that Maemo was the best OS. Then it was "Meego", then Bada was going to dominate. Then Tizen would launch in 2012 with DoCoMo, Orange, and be "the key to Samsung's success".

There was only ONE voice of dissent - mine. Telling that they'd all be still born, along with BB10, and that Windows Phone was going to be the clear 3rd (distant third) ecosystem.

How many times do you guys want to go through the same crap?

There is NO CONSUMER DEMAND for any of this crap. It is all about open source zealots, trying to lay with people lie DoCoMo who still have visions of being independent of Apple, Google, Microsoft and have their own walled garden ecosystem.

It will neer, ever happen. Consumers have voted with their wallet. They want iTunes, GooglePlay, Gmail, iMessage, etc. Open source OS have no benefit to them. The OS is simply a gateway to services, apps.

Any way - go on rooting for Sailfish (Where is the Chinese distribution that Tomi claimed in 2012/2013?), Ubuntu, Firefox (that one at least has some devices out in Brazil and a few other places), Tizen (wasn't it ready to launch in 2012?), etc.

These are rounding errors of crap in the market.


You were so utterly clueless you thought Windows Phone was a viable strategy for Nokia, if you want to talk about a Zombie platform Windows Phone is it.

FYI Bada was not Linux, it was not open source and in fact it was not even an OS, it was a platform that could be configured to be used with different kernels. No Bada device ever released used the Linux kernel.

You're also wrong about Tizen, it is in no way 'dead' nor 'stillborn', having corrected your ignorance of Ubuntu Mobile and Bada (I note you're now trying to give the impression you knew the difference between Ubuntu On Android and Ubuntu Mobile :roll-eyes:), now let me also help enlighten you about Tizen:

I know this must be excruciating for you but Linux is everywhere, your living in denial doesn't change that fact. It's in super computers, super colliders, internet servers, enterprise servers, financial trading systems, routers, desktops, smartphones, tablets, TVs, media players, set top boxes, cars, ovens, fridges, washing machines, microwaves, central heating systems, air conditioners,... it just goes on and on. Linux is undoubtedly economically more significant than Apple or Microsoft or any single company on the planet.

You're also wrong about Ubuntu Mobile not having a launch partner. Google has an excellent search algorithm (hosted on Linux servers, btw) perhaps you should try it.

John Alatalo

I think its to early to tell how it goes with Windows Phone and Nokia (or the new brand)
After all the Windows Phone 8,1 update will be rolling out in june probably.
Not just the new devices will get it but the older ones to.
So the issue when WP7 became WP8 will not happend this time, with rewrite all the app portfoilio etc..

Windows phone 8 now have 250.000+ app and it growing with about 500 new each day. For "non geeks" the app are that matters not what OS the handset running.

So I suppose we will se how Q3 and Q4 result will be. Windows is now also free for the OEM manufactors, and early on we already see som result in this:

"Cheap Windows Phone 8.1-based Yezz Billy 4.7 and Billy 4.0 to be released soon"

And we dont know what the big brands like Samsung, HTC or Lenovo/Motorola will do yet.
So just let us wait and see how it goes.


" So just let us wait and see how it goes. "

Usual argument for Microsoft chills (not accusing you of being one)

Let's wait WP7.

Let's wait Nokia Lumia's.

Let's wait WP8.

Let's wait new Nokia Lumia's.

Let's wait new Nokia with wonderful camera (everyone will line-up for them, right, right ?)

Let's wait WP8.1

Let's wait WP9...

Let's wait...


@foofoo I agree with the "wait for" ...that whatever is coming next is somehow supposed to placate current unhappy customers after they bought microsoft crap. I have to wonder how much Microsoft pays the group of astroturfers using the Baron95 label? ...or if it just a group of Microsoft employees sharing the burden of posting nonsense? ..It must really upset them that it is still true that NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE! LoL


@John Alatalo
"For "non geeks" the app are that matters not what OS the handset running."

Or are they? According to research just conducted by ofcom in the UK (an 'advanced market' according to Baron95) the majority of smartphone users never install an app, not a single one. Of the minority that do install apps on average they install 23, only 10 of which they actually use. I'd bet if they did a deeper analysis they'd find a lot of commonality within that 10 too, popular messaging apps that are cheaper than SMS/MMS for example.

Beyond that my guess is most app downloads will be games for kids which will more likely be for tablets than smartphones. I bought all my kids Android tablets because Android games are a fraction of the cost (often free) of the games they used to want for their Nintendo DSs

So, if more than half of UK smartphone consumers don't care about apps, it wasn't the lack of apps putting them off buying Nokia's Windows Phones, therefore it must have been something else (remember, pre-Elop the UK had been a strong market for Nokia).


Hi Tomi
This is a interisting analysis (in german)

Key findings:
- Only 25% of Nokia's customers owns a smartphone.
- Nokia has the longest lasting relationship to its customers.
- Nokia has the fewest new customer.
- Nokia has the most unhappy customers.

Tomi T Ahonen

Thank you Winter,

but I remove all references to the trolling blog. I am sure you understand. But your comment was good, thanks. But it was not necessary as I of course remove all references to that or any other trolling blogs. Cheers!

Tomi :-)

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.


Post a comment

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati