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« Q1 Apple Results: iPhone market share down to 15% - plus some other bloodbath news | Main | The Microsoft Handset Opportunity with Nokia - the Full Analysis of Potential (its not looking good) »

April 29, 2014

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AndThisWillBeToo

"The ONLY platform that shows strong momentum is obviously Android."

So we haven't gotten past the "Apple is doomed" story?
While you are at it, Samsung Sammy the Samster loses market share again. How come you haven't told us yet how Samsung has lost its momentum?

AndThisWillBeToo

Aaaand... Since when was Q2 of 2010 "very recently"? In 2011?

WAKE UP! IT'S YEAR 2014 AND A SHITLOAD OF STUFF HAS HAPPENED SINCE FEBRUARY 11TH OF 2011!!!

Giacomo Di Giacomo

@AndThisWillBeToo, are you aware of the stupid things you are saying? Tomi never said Apple is doomed. He keeps saying that Apple will decline, and that is happening. No more Steve Jobs, and it shows. Samsung? Tomi has been talking for years about the rise of Chinese manufacturers. Which means that someone has to lose market share to Chinese manufacturers. Who? The one who owned most of it, of course, that is Samsung. Who stays the first but with declining share, as did Nokia until Q1 2011. This is implied in what is said above.

Ben

Tomi, Thanks for the analysis as always. Obviously Windows Phone 8.1 is not taking off and not gaining any marketshare as many had suggested it would. You called it. Again. I'm curious what percentage of sales were lost due to Nokias imminent sale. I'm sure there were some hardcore fanboys left that somehow stomached Windows Phone because it was still kind of a Nokia, but gave up all hope once the sale was announced.

And just for shits and giggles, if you have the numbers handy:
How big is the Chinese smartphone market currently? If Nokia had held onto their marketshare in China alone and lost everything else, would they still had sold more phones than they just did? Obviously that wouldn't have happened with the plethora of cheap Andriod manufactures that have popped up, but the planned push of MeeGo and the N9 would have almost certainly fared quite a bit better than Windows Phone.

Also, what's the size of the smartphone market now vs say Q1 2011? It'd be interesting if you could model where Nokia might be if they had merely stayed course. Sure they were losing marketshare and were on a (relatively) slight downward trajectory. However, if you were able to extrapolate that out and factor in the growth of the industry I feel it would provide a decent glimpse at how badly Windows Phone did fail against merely staying the course.

eduardo m

Elop says Nokia will continue with Nokia-X

http://www.zdnet.com/microsofts-elop-defends-android-based-nokia-x-phones-7000028830/

Tomi, I would love to see your analysis of WP 8.1. I am guessing you think it won't sell, even though it has gotten some good reviews.

GrantB

Been watching the Nokia train wreck with Elop at the wheel for quite a long time. Wonder how long Elop will remain at the wheel though if Windows Phone 8.x still does not succeed under direct Microsoft control; you would have to think that sooner or later, MS would have to accept that they lost and go all in with services o ntop of an Android base.

Sad thing is that while I have an Android tablet and an iOS device (iPod Touch), I needed a cheap smartphone last year that could do calls/txt and a few basic smart phone services like GPS/Mapping/Navigation and create wifi hotspots. The Nokia 520 I bought does the job really well, and simple enough for my elderly father-in-law to buy one as well once he had a play with my phone. Obviously sold by Nokia at a big discount as the 520 was cheaper than most generic Android phones at the time of purchase. I am guessing that the 520 was the core reason for the growth in WP8 in markets last year, but it alone was not enough to save the platform.

If Nokia could have done something like the 520 with an Android OS, I would have been just as happy, but WP8 was fine for what I needed.

So in a year or so when I replace the phone, will I stick with Nokia for the next model up? Stick with WP8.x?
I would have preferred to stick with Nokia, but buying a Microsoft branded phone does not appeal.
WP OS is OK, but not better than iOS or Android, so I suspect I might end up with and Android phone as the only viable/affordable option. Sad as I like choice in the market, but I am a realist.

AndThisWillBeToo

@Giacomo
You didn't follow me: My point was that according to Tomi iOS is not a platform that shows momentum. I should've put it "Apple ecosystem is doomed" because that Toni has been saying that Apple's ecosystem will shrink and remain as a small player.
I say that while Android ecosystem gets new devices 5-fold compared to Apple's they are still both having momentum. Tomi just uses the wrong metric to evaluate the growth of an ecosystem.

Also:
When Nokia lost market share in 2010 Tomi wrote a long text about it telling how devastated he is by it:
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/01/undesirable-at-any-price-what-happened-to-nokia-who-invented-the-smartphone.html
But for Samsung we only hear "there is nothing to see here" speech. I would like to know why. Samsung did not even grow unit sales on Q4!

John Fischer

I am Bewildered, amazed.... It takes Tomi 11 seconds and a half to post about apple bad news, loss of market share, it takes Tomi 10 and a half seconds to post about Nokia and Elop and the end of the world for MS

But to report that Samsung lost market share, that is being eaten alive in china, that it mislead investors with fake numbers related to tablets, that it can not be trusted etc .... Not a single word.

I just don't get it, why is it so hard to report that Samsung peaked? that low profits will eventually hurt the company until a Nokia like syndrome hit the company mobile division

I guess that if apple would have done all that we would read here horror stories but here we have Alice uses a samsung in wonderland

Baron95

Tomi, that is good forensics analysis on the Nokia cryptic earnings release - I think for all practical purposes your numbers are likely good for analysis/discussion purposes.

As fas as the bloodbath, it is now clear that all the industry leaders of a few years ago have failed miserably, with the exception of Apple and Samsung. LG's results are ludicrous. Moto and HTC are doing a disappearing act. Nokia is hanging by a thread to the top 10. The "white-lable" Asian Android OEMs are doing what they did to the PC industry and mopping up the price conscious consumers.

And, even Apple and Samsung, have reached peak unit market share, as you pointed out repeatedly in the Apple case, and ignored in Samsung's case.

So what does the future hold?

I think with increased carrier distribution and the advent of the large screen iPhones in the fall, combined with the "more of the same" Samsung GS5, Apple locks up the high end of the market in an even bigger way. The iTunes/AppStore revenues alone are now bigger than the revenues for all players on your top 10 list, except for Apple and Samsung. That is the inflection point.

Apple will raise ASP with the new iPhone introductions, with a carrier subsidized price higher by $50 or $100 for the largest phone, vs iPhone 5S. It also now has momentum with double/triple digit unit sales increase in India, Russia, Brazil, China, Vietnam, etc - all pre-paid heavy markets.

Samsung will continue to suffer a slow (not fast) erosion of ASP and unit market share, on the account of the Asian Android OEMs growth.

That leaves Microsoft. There are two scenarios. One, the status quo, Microsoft continues to make minor improvements, and lingers in the 2-3% unit market share range, forever, as a Smartphone "hobby"- kind of like Apple does with Apple TV and Google does with Google+. The other scenario though is a massive marketing campaign and subsidy program - think $10B/year range to buy market share. That can take Microsoft to the 5% unit market share range. I don't know which scenario they will choose - but they spent $7B for the right to make this decision. My guess in that odds are 4 to 1 in favor of the first scenario. In either scenario, I think they keep Nokia X alive, and transition as quickly as they can out of dumb phones.

Going forward, I think Samsung is the most threatened company on your top 10 list. Apple and Lenovo are the ones with the most upside.

Gonzo

Poor Nokia, poor Samsung.

Analysts must disclose if they own stock when issuing recommendations, Tiger Woods must use Rolex and Nike and support the brand ….

Maybe the issue here, and guys, no criticisms, is that Samsung sponsors Tomi, great for him as it means respect from a huge player, but bad for us as there is a complete lack of objectivity.

Bloodbath is associated with the iphone every time the subject comes up even after this:

Iphone strength came from this markets, where Apple is focusing on growth, logical, add all the people there but here we read bloodbath, disaster, doom

China up 28%,
Brazil up 61%,
Russia up 97%,
Turkey up 56%,
India up 55%.

Overall iPhone unit growth accelerated to 17% y/y vs. 7% in the Dec-13 quarter.

poor nokia, poor Samsung …

RottenApple


What about Samsung? Obviously it wasn't part of today's blog, so lets wait a day or two before crying foul. Maybe Tomi hasn't gotten the numbers yet?

In any case, yes, they did lose a bit but it was marginal, not suggesting any serious problem.

And as usual, we get the FUDing from some Apple plants here.

China aside these are all relatively small markets for the premium segment, they'll hardly make up for losses elsewhere. It's truly great to read they 'grew' 97% in Russia - but can you tell us how many phones that actually meant? That's the only relevant number.
Tell us what you like but it's an undisputable fact that Apple's growth is slowing down. But slowing growth will inevitably result in a standstill or decline. Just ignoring the trajectory of developments is not going to work. But that seems to be the preferred way of doing things in the Apple crowd.
No, right now they are not in problems, but the outlook is not as rosy as you paint it. Things won't continue endlessly in such a positive manner.
No, the changes haven't hit them yet, but the early indications are clearly there. (Emphasis on 'early'!)

But of course, we can praise their genius and pray to the God of Fruit as before and then act completely shocked, should things 'surprisingly' turn around.

Just a hint:
My employer, two years ago, made twice as much money with selling apps for Apple than for Android.
Last year, we made equal sales for both platforms.
Early numbers for this year show a trend hinting at 1.5 times as many sales on Android than on Apple.

Granted, we are mostly focussed on Europe but my guess is that similar developments are happening elsewhere as well with Android taking larger portions out of the crowd that's willing to spend some money.

Also, the most frequent complaint I get from Apple users about their platform is that they find they get ripped off, having to pay for stuff others might get for free. Yes, the old wisdom that Apple users are more willing to part from their money, which still drives the ecosystem, starts to turn around!

These are numbers I trust in, not some propaganda like 'Apple increased sales by 97% in Russia'.

Abdul Muis

@AndThisWill

Ecosystem.... Why apple with less user could manage to even android with more user. To know this more, we need to look deeper. Here is one of the article we could use as a base of this war (http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/04/21/apple-and-google-bring-fight-for-exclusive-games-to-mobile). So far, apple has manage to make game appear on iOS before android and make a headline that developer prefer iOS. You could also find some rebuttal on the net saying otherwise, that for developer who has the apps on both platform, android perform better.

But beyond the marketing/hype muscle created by apple, apple knew that PRO-gamer (professional gamer) always want to stay ahead, always want to play it before others. This is the gamer that willing to pay for the IN-APPS purchase. This where's the money goes. Google try to do their DO-NO-EVIL loosing the PRO-GAMER/PREMIUM-MARKET. And google just change their Google Play Store to up the ante with Apple. The result?? We will see this in a couple of month when several 'exclusive' game arrive at Google Play Store.

Other than the pro-gamer, apple user is junk. It just grandma/granddad who use it as a feature phone.

Abdul Muis

@Baron

You always say that carrier bows to apple, carrier will increase subsidies. Do you have any source? I heard rumor that while apple might look winning the NTT Docomo, China Mobile & Russian carrier, the truth is apple is getting paid less than they got from other carrier. I really hope you got the source to beat my rumors, otherwise, it's your rumor against my rumor.

Abdul Muis

@RottenApple

Quote"Also, the most frequent complaint I get from Apple users about their platform is that they find they get ripped off, having to pay for stuff others might get for free. Yes, the old wisdom that Apple users are more willing to part from their money, which still drives the ecosystem, starts to turn around!"

To summarize your post... Apple user is NOT PREMIUM like @leebase & @baron9suck think. Apple user just IDIOT that they don't know android is better for less.... iSheep!!!

Maggan

For me I disregard any analysis that is based on users being "stupid", "sheep", "idiots" and other slurs. It reveals an emotional bias that clouds the thinking and slants the conclusions towards the negative for the company whose customers are derided. This goes for Apple as well as Samsung, Google and Microsoft.

Basically, people using the "sheep" argument are predisposed to discount any positive data for the loathed company, and will focus on all negatives as well as passing judgement on how other people chose to spend their money and what utility they gain from that expenditure. Probably based on a small sample of anecdotal data collected through a heavy filter of confirmation bias.

When one company sells half a billion of something, painting these customers as "sheep" is taking the lazy way out.

/M

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Gang

Great comments thanks. I just posted the Microsoft+Nokia analysis blog (9,000 words and lots of graphs) so lets take the Microsoft and Nokia debate to those comments. I'll return later to some responses here. Keep the discussion going...

But let me address the paid bias. I list my public references often - that is companies who say they have used my consulting services - companies like Nokia, Google, NTT DoCoMo, China Mobile, Vodafone, Intel, LG, Blackberry, etc etc etc. I believe long-time readers of my blog know I have no qualms about writing critical blogs about companies that are public reference clients of mine (haha, starting with Nokia). But I have more clients who are not public and with whom I have confidentiality agreements and I won't reveal those names. I can say that Samsung is not a public reference customer of mine. I can separately say that I have no stock market investments in ANY of the companies who make smartphones - my occasional share ownership is in totally different types of companies, not at the very late stage when they are publically trades stock market companies when most of the big investment opportunity is long gone. So I have nothing to report about a paid bias about Samsung. I can say that if Samsung release a number on their Q1 results, I will immediately write a blog about that performance. If not, it will be LIKE EVERY QUARTER BEFORE - when we have the best numbers, ie those as reported by the big four analyst houses, for Samsung - ie Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analytics and Canalys. And at least Strategy Analytics has reported - Samsung sales are UP from Q4 - based on real growth in China - not the numbers seriously DOWN by Apple from Q4. I am not posting it as my official Samsung number because Strategy Analytics might have it wrong, we'll wait until we hear from Samsung officially, or else until the other of the big 4 have announced their counts. Sorry , you have to wait. I have behaved like this with EVERY Top 10 player EVERY QUARTER, it is nothing about Sammy. (But I like it that Samsung tends to be playing the game currently very smartly)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Baron95

@Abdul Mule - I have posted extensive data on the NTT DoCoMo and China Mobile deals and implications for Apple. Some of it gets deleted by Tomi, because he claims that no financial data can be posted here.

But for what is worth, Calendar Q1 (fiscal Q2) is the first full quarter where China Mobile was rolled out. Sales in China for Apple went up 17% (to $10B in one quarter) due to China Mobile rollout, and gross margins went up beating all analyst expectations.

So it is self evident, that Apple is getting paid at least as much for iPhones in China Mobile, as elsewhere, and likely much more.

I could post more data, but don't want to invest the time since, any financial analysis pro Apple here gets deleted.

You can search the previous blogs (when Tomi was on hiatus and deleting less) for NTT DoCoMo and China Mobile deals - which, incidentally I was the first to report here that it was happening, when Tomi was claiming that NTT and CM would never do a deal with Apple.

Abdul Muis

@Baron

In other words, your data is not valid, based from hoax web site or some random thought blog. Thus, Tomi delete your post.

Abdul Muis

@Magan

I completely agree with you, and I'm sorry for such a strong post of mine. I'm reacting too strong to leebase and baron post, and lowering my self into 'iSheep' category.

After all, there is a reason why there were iSheep but not ibmSHEEP or samsungSHEEP or sonySHEEP.

Abdul Muis

@Leebase

I don't know if you really iSheep or MSFT astroturfer because iSheep can camouflage easily into MSFT astroturfer to archive their goal. i.e badmouthing google, android, samsung.

What I know from your post is you don't like google ecosystem, and you prefer iOS/microsoft ecosystem even it's not as good as google ecosystem. You believe microsoft will win the race even though current situation show that microsoft has been BRIBING LOTS of money to be able to be in the race.

When you see an evidence that apple is loosing, their user are switching to android because iOS/iphone is such a boring platform for the smart / well educated folks, you don't answer to that discussion, and you bring your own fairy tale.

There is no other description other than ixxxx or asxxxxxxfer that can fit more for you and baron.

Abdul Muis

@Leebase

I have a question for you. What do you think Tomi Ahonen as a phone user fall into? He got lots of $$, travel all the time, drink whiskey or champagne, but not petroleum, but he OWNED SONY XPERIA Z1. NOT IPHONE. Is he a PREMIUM USER?

You always said that apple beat samsung in selling PREMIUM phone. could you give the number breakdown on sales number of iphone 4, iphone 4s, iphone 5, iphone 5c, iphone 5s & compared to samsung galaxy S3, samsung galaxy s4, samsung galaxy s5, galaxy note 2, galaxy note 3.

If you went to some developing country, such as malaysia, philipine, thailand, vietnam, indonesia, india, you will see that the DISCOUNTINUED iphone 4 is all over the place for UNSUBSIDIZED PRICE OF US$200-270. That's the REFURBISHED iphone 4 sold in millions of unit all over that country. This is the one that help apple, not the premium 5s segment, not the 'cheap' 5c segment.

And do you know what even funnier, the user who bought iphone in this 3rd world country is DIFFERENT compared to the user in western world. This user DON'T want to buy the iphone in apple shop themed because the service IS NOT THE ONE THEY WANT. Yeah, that's right, you and baron think that the user experience in apple store is the best. But not for this user. This user want the store owner activate the iphone because they don't have credit card. The store owner will put his 'fake' iTunes account, download some free apps, then sell the phone. If that user want some paid apps, they come back to the store, the store owner put their password, download the apps, get paid.

So, why android sell more in this 3rd world country? CARRIER BILLING. That's the magic. Google don't need 800 millions credit card number. Google can let the user USE THEIR CARRIER balance to pay for the apps. THAT'S MORE POWERFULL than 800 millions credit card number. That's the reason the user in the country I mention above buy android (samsung, LG, sony, etc) device in the original store, not some small shop.

Abdul Muis

@Leebase

I also wondering if you could give a citation or source of 800 million credit card number. I think apple just celebrate selling the 500th million iphone. Why can they have more credit card number than iphone? it doesn't make sense.

RottenApple

@Leebase:

Well, you just disproved yourself, it seems.

You are lumping all iPhone sales together and then compare them to what's most likely just the very latest generation of Samsung devices. (As a matter of fact, the definition of 'premium' is very subjective and I have absolutely no idea what Samsung considered 'premium' at a certain point in time, and neither do you.) But if you take three generations of iPhones you also have to take three generations of premium Android devices for comparison. Otherwise you cannot claim that all Apple sales are in the premium segment.

As for the tech press. I'm not surprised. There's so much biased reporting going on - mostly in Apple's favor that it may easily draw a false picture. I'm not surprises that you happily swallow all of it.

RottenApple

@Leebase:

And your point being? The four phones you listed were not even considered premium phones on release.

Although not quite at that price point as the (utterly overpriced iPhone 4s), the Samsung Galaxy S3 is still listed for $300. Oh, and cheapest unlocked iPhone 4s is $389, not $405.

And don't underestimate the appeal of subsidized plans with a premium phone from 2 years ago with a $0 price tag slapped on it, with the real costs hidden in the fine print. My guess is that a lot of these get sold to non-premium users, which of course dilute the premium-ness of Apple - and that doesn't even factor in that the iPhone 4 is also still on sale.

So, if you want to talk premium we need some better definition and not something simplistic like 'All of Apple is premium'. It's not that simple. If you take it that way, you'd have to include a lot more in Android's premium segment.


E.Casais

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2014/04/one-more-time-lets-do-nokia-q1-smartphone-results-what-can-we-estimate-of-the-actual-numbers-from-th/comments/page/2/#comments

My contribution to clear up this discussion about "premium".

Premium is first and foremost about price, not about quality or features.

I looked at the largest Internet portal/price comparator in Switzerland for electronics. I consider all mobile phones, of every available vintage sold new and unsubsidized online. There are many enties (649) because the same model is priced differently depending on the case colour, storage space and dual-SIM capability. Prices are in CHF (subtract 20% for EUR, add 12% for USD), and correspond to the cheapest available offer (I omit mention of the specific case colour). Switzerland is a high-income country, 30% of mobile customers are pre-paid, the share of Apple is above 50%, there is no Swiss mobile phone manufacturer, thus no national champion to skew loyalties.

Rank Price Models

1-11 984,30 - 777,00 various iPhone 5S and 5
12 754,90 HTC One 32GB dual-SIM
13-17 748,20 - 697,65 various iPhone 5S and 5
18-20 691,20 - 690,15 various Xperia Z2
22-23 688,95 iPhone 5S and Xperia Z2
24 682,70 Galaxy S4 32GB
25 674,85 Galaxy S5 16GB
26 673,92 Xperia Z Ultra 16GB
27-28 669,00 iPhone 5S 16GB and Galaxy S5 16GB
29 668,80 iPhone 5S 16GB
30 668,00 HTC One 16GB

Most expensive

BB 649,00 Q10
WP 599,00 Lumia 930
Other 582,00 Nokia Oro

Yes, you can still get hold of old devices of all kinds.

Cheapest Apple

... 350,50 iPhone 4S 8GB
... 235,95 iPhone 3S 8GB

The iPhone 4S 8GB is more expensive than
67% of all Android devices
67% of all Windows Phone devices
37% of all Blackberry devices
95% of all "other" devices
69% of all mobile phones

The iPhone 3GS 8GB is more expensive than
43% of all Android devices
44% of all Windows Phone devices
5% of all Blackberry devices
93% of all "other" devices
49% of all mobile phones

Conclusions:

iPhones are premium devices.

All iPhone models are premium devices: if such an old and thoroughly obsolete model as the 3S is still about the price mid-point for all mobile phones, then Apple is indeed a premium brand throughout.

An argument often made is that Apple has a cheap device strategy, namely, selling the model of year n-2. The statistics above prove that this strategy does definitely not qualify as a "cheap device" one -- the iPhone 4S is still more expensive than the vast majority of other devices on the market.

Market distortions caused by device subsidies from oligopolies and regional monopolies, as in North America, would require another kind of analysis taking into account the total cost of subscription, but in the end would probably not alter these conclusions.

Case closed.

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