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« Ok, a Few Words About Microsoft Under Satya Nadella | Main | Sony Q4 Results in Smartphone Wars - We now have all rankings for Top 10 for 2013 - and some tidbits »

February 06, 2014

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RottenApple

@Baron95:

"Why is this discussion relevant?"

It clearly isn't. You should tell that to the morons releasing such nonsensical, misleading and sensationalist headlines - and even more to the journalists copying this nonsense without thinking about it.

The discussion isn't about the WP performance but about the way it is reported.

LeeBase

Canalysis is no more wrong than declaring that Apple is in "major decline" because of phones in segments it does not compete in grow faster.

I give you an A+ for debunking the value of "growth rate".

I give you an F for using the same "not telling the whole truth story using statistics" in your continued doom and gloom on Apple.

Satya Nutela

@Tomi

You're also using wrong metric when discussing BlackBerry OS. You always report the total of both BB device OS non-10 and OS 10. But when discussing Windows OS, you always insist on seperating the Windows Mobile and Windows Phone platform and pointing the failure of Microsoft.

The BB 10 is TOTAL failure. It's Q4 shipment of BB10 is lower than it's Q3 shipment.

@LeeBase

Apple is really going down, major decline, on the cliff. Why is it hard for you to accept that. It's not deemed cool anymore. Maybe you had a hard time changing from iOS to other device, but not all iOS think so.

Symbolset

Tomi?

Spawn

@Satya Nutela

Thats to easy. C'mon, stop comparing BB to WP. We know BB is in deep trouble. So, whatw your point in comparing that to WP? To show its in lesser deep trouble? Fine, but hey, deep trouble is deep trouble.

No, no. The pattern here is not BB but its about Android and iOS and WP. That total failure of PR that so called 'analysts' putted into there *PR* bullshit doesn't compare with C64, which btw is even doing more worse theh WP this days!, doesn't compare with Windows CE and doesn't compare with BB. They compare with iOS and Android. Just like Microsoft pushs that marketing-messages that WP outsold iOS in some countries. So stupid. So wrong if you take there goal and analyse performance. Fact is WP failed so horrible there is no way they can recover, there is no way they have ever a posibility to change that. WP is done, thqt chapter is closed like the Zune-experiment.

Move beyond that silly minds trying to explain you how well WP is doing, has momentum, is outselling iOS, is growing faster then Android. Its all that, people trying to bullshit you playing so silly statistic-games that its nothing but shame for those having a bit of IQ, math-knowledge, not being so dump to take that as truth.

Now close that chapter and look in the future. Satya Nutella is there to apply the new strategy moving away from there old Windows-platform game. Satya Nutella is there to make that happen. WP is the old game, its his job to close that WP failure and focus on a new strategy.

Fact is, WP is more dead then BB10. Not in terms of market share, not in terms of any statistic-numbers. But unlike WP that BB10 thing may continue trying to move from failure to profit. WP is closed, its done. BB10 may still be there in n years in some niche surviving after reaching a break-even thanks to drastic cuts.

Kenny

@Satya Nutela.

Yes, it is really hilarious that Microsoft trumpets that WP is outselling iphone in some poor countries like Kenya, Argentina and India. The iphone is an expensive luxury item in these countries while the Lumia 520 is sold at a loss at bargain bin price. In India the latest iphone model can cost twice the pay of a graduate engineer. This is like Toyota trumpeting the fact that it outsells BMW in some poor countries.

LeeBase

@Nutela - Apple will be "going down" when another manufacturer is taking APPLE's market away from them. It's actually Samsung which is seeing downward sales of it's premium phones...not Apple.

As far as Apple "not being cool" - how can I disagree? I mean, "coolness" must have been the ONLY reason people EVER buy an iPhone right? Of course, the "Apple has lost it's coolness" meme has been put forth from the first year after the iPhone. Along with the "it will only sell to American" meme. And the "it can't grow further without a physical keyboard" meme. And the "what, no FLASH support, no memory card slot, no NFC, no swappable battery" memes.

I completely agree with folks that WP is currently an utter disaster. I find it amusing that "growth rate" is being debunked now when Android was touted LONG before it had arrived based on growth rates from an equally small base.

WP discussions are relevant on this forum MOSTLY due to Tomi's predictions of utter doom that --I-- believe are rooted more in hatred of Msft than on objectively analyzing the possibilities. In light of Bada and Tizen (not to mention Meego) that he touted as the next big things...it is interesting that it's WP that really is the third ecosystem. Only Tomi declaring it NEVER would be makes the story something to talk about.

I've always said that it was unlikely that ANY platform can gain significant traction in light of iOS and Android but that if anyone COULD it would be Msft. So far I'm looking for more the "most accurate" compared to Tomi on THIS limited topic :)

RottenApple

@Leebase:

"Apple will be "going down" when another manufacturer is taking APPLE's market away from them. It's actually Samsung which is seeing downward sales of it's premium phones...not Apple."

Or when Apple's users feel there's no more reason to upgrade every two years.
The market currently depends on ridiculously short upgrade cycles. Once these disappear things wil definitely change, we already see this in the PC market - which is not stagnating because of mobile but mostly because it's pointless to buy a new system every few years, in particular for casual users which can easily live with a 10+ year old system as the current marker share of Windows XP amply demonstrates.

Satya Nutela

@Spawn

My english must be very bad that you think different than what I meant. LOL
In this article, Tomi asking Canalyst to say sorry because canalyst try to trick the world using 'statistic'. I simply point out, that while tomi always try to show truthness in statistic and seperating Windows Mobile and Windows Phone.... Tomi fail to do the same in BlackBerryOS. BB OS 10 is very different than BB OS before 10. Thus, if Tomi seperate the statistic of Windows Mobile and Windows Phone to show Windows Phone failure, Tomi must do the same to BlackBerry, and show BB 10 failure, which is worse than WP.

RottenApple

Is there even any source that separates these two?

I don't think so which makes the entire thing quite hard. You are right, of course, these two are as different as Symbian vs. Windows Phone 7.

LeeBase

Longer upgrade cycles of AT&T and Verizon contributed to less sales last Qtr. Knocked a billion or so from Apple's profits. That's hardly something to cry over given they still made record breaking profits.

Years ago Tomi called the top of the market for premium smartphones. We are FINALLY starting to see this come true. Not just a slowing in Apple's sales but Samsung's sales in the premium segment. A slowing of growth. Boo hoo. Apple will remain making tens of billions PER QUARTER instead of 2 or three times that much. I shiver for Apple's future.

Thing is -- the low end of the market won't change Apple's fortunes. Let's say Apple makes ALL the money that isn't already being made by Apple and Samsung. Apple puts out a low end set of phones and steals ALL the sales and all the profits made by Sony, HTC, Motorola and all the Chinese.

Guess what? That's practically NO money at all. Certainly not as a percentage of Apple's current profits. And for what? To add a billion non-ecosystem participating customers? Flooding Apple's services and the developers services with a billion freeloading "freemium" users who don't buy apps, don't buy upgrades and advertisers aren't all that interested in reaching? Dilute Apple's brand and make Apple's products no more valuable to carriers for attracting profitable customers than Android.

All to win the 1 metric people CLAIM is important...unit sales crown. Meanwhile, it would destroy Apple's real metric: gross margin.

You can have 100 customers you make $1000 on or 1000 customers you make $1150 on. Why work that much harder for those 900 customers that combined bring in only an additional $150? (yes, I'm making up numbers, but they point is still true).

Sony sold it's Viao business which is about the same size in units as Apple's Mac business. Apple is clearing about $265 per Mac sold, while PC's are bring in $23 or so. All while people continue to say "Apple lost the PC war to Windows".

Apple has grown to the size of Exxon. There is no new product category or market niche that is going to take Apple back into a growth company. Tomi has educated us over and over that there is NOTHING like the mobile phone industry. It's bigger than everything that ever came before it. Far far bigger. It's bigger than PC's, bigger than Tv's, bigger than microwaves....probably bigger than indoor plumbing. And Apple has taken 10% of that market with devices selling about $600 with margins around 40%.

This was a once in a lifetime opportunity. No company will compare and Apple isn't going to repeat. But cranking out $10+ billion in profits every quarter even with slow growth or even flat or even the occasional minor dip....is still d@mn awesome.

Apple just in the last two weeks bout 2 Nokia's worth of Apple stock. This was no merger. This was no lifeline to secure it's place in mobile (ala the Msft purchase of Nokia). This was just easy to do because of the huge pile of cash Apple has and the dip in stock. You have to, at least once in awhile, put Apple in perspective.

Spawn

@Satya Nutela
So you still talk about BB10 to make that point that WP is not the only platform doing bad, worst, misserable? Ok, if thats your point take it home and close your BB-comparision now.

For separating numbers: you did not see Tomi separate WP7 and WP8 in this article too or did you? Reason is easy: we are talking about total failure so separating it future makes no sense. The failure is there, it just doesn't matter if its leser failure then BB or more failure if you separate Lumina 520 out (whih is low end andnplays in another segment), if you do x or y. It doesn't change anything that Nokia, WP, Microsoft failed. The chapter is done and closed. Accept it.

V900

Of course, considering that Windows Phone didn't even come out until November 2010 (real availability started Q1 2011), some might accuse you of being manipulative and lying yourself, Tomi...

The only way you were able to make it look like a recovery, was by slapping WP's marketshare numbers together with the marketshare of Windows Mobile. An ancient mobile OS that have nothing in common with WP, except for the fact that they were both made in Redmond.
(Now granted, if you had called the graph, and presented it as something like: "Total marketshare of Microsoft's mobile OS" it would be more honest.)

Isn't what you did here, the same kind of dishonesty you're accusing Canalys of? Only telling part of the picture by misrepresenting numbers and showing them out of context?

RottenApple

@V900:

You are wrong. Microsoft chose voluntarily to make WP completely incompatible with their predecessor so it's completely valid to include both in the graph. They shot themselves in the foot with this, and other manufacturers doing the same thing would also be handled the same, see Blackberry for an example.

And no matter what you measure against, for both Microsoft and Nokia the growth of last year looks utterly pathetic if you compare it to where both companies once were.

Rob G

Tomi,

"They knew what they were doing and we can't expect journalists - verbally talented people - to have wanted to study statistics at university."

As this is business-related news, I would kind of expect a journalist worth his pay to be able to analyse these kind of figures for distortions. At the very least, they should run the figures by someone who does understand statistics.

Brian

How many of those "Android" devices are real Android devices, with Google Play?

As of 2013, only about half. The other 50% are running forks of Android with proprietary stores from players like Xiaomi and Amazon.

Isn't it thus equally misleading to present them as one market opportunity, when they're so fragmented?

AndThisWillBeToo

@Brian
You're just half way there.
Majority of phones that Samsung sells are low-end phones whose buyers are very unlikely to spend money on apps and services. So even having Google ecosystem on board does not mean the phone contributes to that ecosystem in any meaningful (read: profit-generating) way.

Someone should be first to do comparisons of ecosystems in a metric that matters.

RottenApple

Still FUDing?

First, since when is China 50% of the world market - and yes, that's the only market where no Google services are provided. Not quite surprisingly, due to the language barrier it's not the most interesting market for Western developers.
Amazon is mere noise and doesn't count.

Second, if a Western developer was interested in China they could still sell their Android software there, it's still the same OS with the same API (hence no significant added development costs, unlike porting to Windows Phone, for example (other than doing Chinese translation, that is, but that'd also be required if it was sold through Google.
As for Amazon, unless some software requires Google services, it's no hassle to release on Amazon as well. My current employer is doing that for all products, they also publish in Samsung's market.

It's clear that you guys have no clue what presents a genuine barrier for entry into a market and what does not. Just using another app store is minor, having to reprogram your software for another OS is a completely different story.

burada

Microsoft's Windows Phone is best for me. İt's my idea :)

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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